RESUMO
Knowledge on the transmission tree of an epidemic can provide valuable insights into disease dynamics. The transmission tree can be reconstructed by analysing either detailed epidemiological data (e.g. contact tracing) or, if sufficient genetic diversity accumulates over the course of the epidemic, genetic data of the pathogen. We present a likelihood-based framework to integrate these two data types, estimating probabilities of infection by taking weighted averages over the set of possible transmission trees. We test the approach by applying it to temporal, geographical and genetic data on the 241 poultry farms infected in an epidemic of avian influenza A (H7N7) in The Netherlands in 2003. We show that the combined approach estimates the transmission tree with higher correctness and resolution than analyses based on genetic or epidemiological data alone. Furthermore, the estimated tree reveals the relative infectiousness of farms of different types and sizes.
Assuntos
Epidemias/veterinária , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H7N7/fisiologia , Influenza Aviária/epidemiologia , Influenza Aviária/transmissão , Criação de Animais Domésticos , Animais , Galinhas , Sequência Consenso , Patos , Hemaglutininas/genética , Humanos , Vírus da Influenza A Subtipo H7N7/genética , Funções Verossimilhança , Cadeias de Markov , Método de Monte Carlo , Países Baixos/epidemiologia , Neuraminidase/genética , RNA Polimerase Dependente de RNA/genética , Análise de Sequência de RNA/veterinária , Fatores de Tempo , Perus , Proteínas Virais/genéticaRESUMO
BACKGROUND: In The Netherlands, efforts to control meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in hospitals have been largely successful due to stringent screening of patients on admission and isolation of those that fall into defined risk categories. However, Dutch hospitals are not free of MRSA, and a considerable number of cases are found that do not belong to any of the risk categories. Some of these may be due to undetected nosocomial transmission, whereas others may be introduced from unknown reservoirs. AIM: Identifying multi-institutional clusters of MRSA isolates to estimate the contribution of potential unobserved reservoirs in The Netherlands. METHODS: We applied a clustering algorithm that combines time, place, and genetics to routine data available for all MRSA isolates submitted to the Dutch Staphylococcal Reference Laboratory between 2008 and 2011 in order to map the geo-temporal distribution of MRSA clonal lineages in The Netherlands. FINDINGS: Of the 2966 isolates lacking obvious risk factors, 579 were part of geo-temporal clusters, whereas 2387 were classified as MRSA of unknown origin (MUOs). We also observed marked differences in the proportion of isolates that belonged to geo-temporal clusters between specific multi-locus variable number of tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) clonal complexes, indicating lineage-specific transmissibility. The majority of clustered isolates (74%) were present in multi-institutional clusters. CONCLUSION: The frequency of MRSA of unknown origin among patients lacking obvious risk factors is an indication of a largely undefined extra-institutional but genetically highly diverse reservoir. Efforts to understand the emergence and spread of high-risk clones require the pooling of routine epidemiological information and typing data into central databases.