Machine learning for prediction of chronic kidney disease progression: Validation of the Klinrisk model in the CANVAS Program and CREDENCE trial.

AIM: To validate the Klinrisk machine learning model for prediction of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression in patients with type 2 diabetes in the pooled CANVAS/CREDENCE trials. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We externally validated the Klinrisk model for prediction of CKD progression, defined as 40% or higher decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or kidney failure. Model performance was assessed for prediction up to 3 years with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), Brier scores and calibration plots of observed and predicted risks. We compared performance of the model with standard of care using eGFR (G1-G4) and urine albumin-creatinine ratio (A1-A3) Kidney Disease Improving Global Outcomes (KDIGO) heatmap categories. RESULTS: The Klinrisk model achieved an AUC of 0.81 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.78-0.83) at 1 year, and 0.88 (95% CI 0.86-0.89) at 3 years. The Brier scores were 0.020 (0.018-0.022) and 0.056 (0.052-0.059) at 1 and 3 years, respectively. Compared with the KDIGO heatmap, the Klinrisk model had improved performance at every interval (P < .01). CONCLUSIONS: The Klinrisk machine learning model, using routinely collected laboratory data, was highly accurate in its prediction of CKD progression in the CANVAS/CREDENCE trials. Integration of the model in electronic medical records or laboratory information systems can facilitate risk-based care.

Kidney outcomes in children with primary focal segmental glomerulosclerosis from a low- and middle- income country.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exists regarding the clinical course and outcomes of children with primary focal segmental glomerulosclerosis (FSGS) from low- and middle- income countries. METHODS: Children aged 1-18 years with biopsy-proven primary FSGS followed from January 2010-June 2023 in a tertiary-care center were enrolled and their clinical profile, histological characteristics, kidney outcomes, and predictors of adverse outcomes were determined. RESULTS: Over 13 years, 73 (54.8% boys) children with median (IQR) age at FSGS diagnosis 6.7 (3,10) years were recruited and followed up for median 4 (2.5,8) years. FSGS-not otherwise specified (NOS) was the most common histological subtype, in 64 (87.6%) children, followed by collapsing variant in 5 (6.8%) children. At last follow-up, 43 (58.9%), 2 (2.7%) and 28 (38.3%) children were in complete remission (CR), partial remission (PR), and no remission (NR) respectively. Calcineurin inhibitors led to CR or PR in 39 (62%) children. Overall, 21 (28.7%) children progressed to chronic kidney disease (CKD) stage 2-5 (19 from NR vs. 2 from PR group; p = 0.03); with 41% of those NR at 12 months progressing to CKD 4-5 by last follow-up. On multivariable analysis, collapsing variant [adjusted HR 2.5 (95%CI 1.5, 4.17), p = 0.001] and segmental sclerosis > 25% [aHR 9.9 (95%CI 2.2, 45.2), p = 0.003] predicted kidney disease progression. CONCLUSIONS: In children with FSGS, response to immunosuppression predicts kidney survival as evidenced by nil to lower progression to CKD 2-5 by median follow-up of 4 (2.5,8) years in children with CR and PR, compared to those with no remission at 12 months from diagnosis. Segmental sclerosis > 25% and collapsing variant predicted progression to advanced CKD.

Association of serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D with cardiovascular mortality and kidney outcome in patients with early stages of CKD.

PURPOSE: While serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) deficiency is prevalent in chronic kidney disease (CKD), the effects of 25(OH)D deficiency on cardiovascular mortality and kidney outcomes in patients with early-stage CKD remain incompletely understood. METHODS: This multicenter retrospective cohort study included adult patients with stages 1-3 CKD from 19 medical centers across China between January 2000 and May 2021. The primary outcome was cardiovascular mortality. The secondary study outcome included CKD progression (defined as a sustained > 40% eGFR decrease from baseline or progress to end-stage kidney disease), and annual percentage change of eGFR. RESULTS: Of 9229 adults with stages 1-3 CKD, 27.0% and 38.9% had severe (< 10 ng/mL) and moderate (10 to < 20 ng/mL) serum 25(OH)D deficiency, respectively. Compared with patients having 25(OH)D ≥ 20 ng/mL, a significantly higher risk of cardiovascular mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.90, 95% CI 1.37-2.63), CKD progression (HR 2.20, 95% CI 1.68-2.88), and a steeper annual decline in eGFR (estimate - 7.87%; 95% CI - 10.24% to - 5.51% per year) was found in those with serum 25(OH)D < 10 ng/mL. Similar results were obtained in subgroups and by sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: 25(OH)D deficiency is associated with increased risks of cardiovascular mortality and CKD progression in patients with early-stage CKD. Studies are needed to determine whether early intervention for 25(OH)D deficiency could improve the prognosis of patients with early-stage CKD.

Association between cholinesterase inhibitors and kidney function decline in patients with Alzheimer's dementia.

Preclinical evidence shows that activation of the cholinergic anti-inflammatory pathway (CAP) may have direct and indirect beneficial effects on the kidney. Cholinesterase inhibitors (ChEIs) are specific Alzheimer's dementia (AD) therapies that block the action of cholinesterases and activate CAP. Here, we explored a plausible effect of ChEIs on slowing kidney function decline by comparing the risk of CKD progression among patients with newly diagnosed AD that initiated ChEI or not within 90 days. Using complete information of routine serum creatinine tests, we evaluated changes in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and defined the outcome of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression as the composite of an eGFR decline of over 30%, initiation of dialysis/transplant or death attributed to CKD. A secondary outcome was death. Inverse probability of treatment-weighted Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios. Among 11, 898 patients, 6,803 started on ChEIs and 5,095 did not. Mean age was 80 years (64% women) and the mean eGFR was 68 ml/min/1.73m2. During a median 3.0 years of follow-up, and compared to non-use, ChEI use was associated with 18% lower risk of CKD progression (1,231 events, adjusted hazard ratio 0.82; 95% confidence interval 0.71-0.96) and a 21% lower risk of death (0.79; 0.72-0.86). Results were consistent across subgroups, ChEI subclasses and after accounting for competing risks. Thus, in patients with AD undergoing routine care, use of ChEI (vs no-use) was associated with lower risk of CKD progression.

Long-term Visit-to-Visit Variability in Hemoglobin A1c and Kidney-Related Outcomes in Persons With Diabetes.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: To characterize associations between long-term visit-to-visit variability of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) and risk of adverse kidney outcomes in patients with diabetes. STUDY DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 93,598 adults with diabetes undergoing routine care in Stockholm, Sweden. EXPOSURES AND PREDICTORS: Categories of baseline and time-varying HbA1c variability score (HVS, the percentage of total HbA1c measures that vary by>0.5% [5.5mmol/mol] during a 3-year window): 0-20%, 21%-40%, 41%-60%, 61%-80%, and 81%-100%, with 0-20% as the reference group. OUTCOME: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression (composite of>50% estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] decline and kidney failure), acute kidney disease (AKI by clinical diagnosis or transient creatinine elevations according to KDIGO criteria), and worsening of albuminuria. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression. RESULTS: Compared with persons showing low HbA1c variability (HVS 0-20%), any increase in variability was associated with a higher risk of adverse kidney outcomes beyond mean HbA1c. For example, for patients with a baseline HbA1c variability of 81%-100%, the adjusted HR was 1.6 (95% CI, 1.47-1.74) for CKD progression, 1.23 [1.16-1.3] for AKI, and 1.28 [1.21-1.36] for worsening of albuminuria. The results were consistent across subgroups (diabetes subtypes, baseline eGFR, or albuminuria categories), in time-varying analyses and in sensitivity analyses including time-weighted average HbA1c or alternative metrics of variability. LIMITATIONS: Observational study, limitations of claims data, lack of information on diet, body mass index, medication changes, and diabetes duration. CONCLUSIONS: Higher long-term visit-to-visit HbA1c variability is consistently associated with the risks of CKD progression, AKI, and worsening of albuminuria. PLAIN-LANGUAGE SUMMARY: The evidence for current guideline recommendations derives from clinical trials that focus on a single HbA1c as the definitive measure of efficacy of an intervention. However, long-term visit-to-visit fluctuations of HbA1c may provide additional value in the prediction of future kidney complications. We evaluated the long-term fluctuations in glycemic control in almost 100,000 persons with diabetes undergoing routine care in Stockholm, Sweden. We observed that higher long-term HbA1c fluctuation is consistently associated with the risks of chronic kidney disease progression, worsening of albuminuria and acute kidney injury. This finding supports a role for long-term glycemic variability in the development of kidney complications and illustrates the potential usefulness of this metric for risk stratification at the bedside beyond a single HbA1c test.

Heart Failure-Type Symptom Score Trajectories in CKD: Findings From the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Quality of life in chronic kidney disease (CKD) is impaired by a large burden of symptoms including some that overlap with the symptoms of heart failure (HF). We studied a group of individuals with CKD to understand the patterns and trajectories of HF-type symptoms in this setting. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 3,044 participants in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) without prior diagnosis of HF. PREDICTORS: Sociodemographics, medical history, medications, vital signs, laboratory values, echocardiographic and electrocardiographic parameters. OUTCOME: Trajectory over 5.5 years of a HF-type symptom score (modified Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire [KCCQ] Overall Summary Score with a range of 0-100 where<75 reflects clinically significant symptoms). ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Latent class mixed models were used to model trajectories. Multinomial logistic regression was used to model relationships of predictors with trajectory group membership. RESULTS: Five trajectories of KCCQ score were identified in the cohort of 3,044 adults, 45% of whom were female, and whose median age was 61 years. Group 1 (41.7%) had a stable high score (minimal symptoms, average score of 96); groups 2 (35.6%) and 3 (15.6%) had stable but lower scores (mild symptoms [average of 81] and clinically significant symptoms [average of 52], respectively). Group 4 (4.9%) had a substantial worsening in symptoms over time (mean 31-point decline), and group 5 (2.2%) had a substantial improvement (mean 33-point increase) in KCCQ score. A majority of group 1 was male, without diabetes or obesity, and this group had higher baseline kidney function. A majority of groups 2 and 3 had diabetes and obesity. A majority of group 4 was male and had substantial proteinuria. Group 5 had the highest proportion of baseline cardiovascular disease (CVD). LIMITATIONS: No validation cohort available, CKD management changes in recent years may alter trajectories, and latent class models depend on the missing at random assumption. CONCLUSIONS: Distinct HF-type symptom burden trajectories were identified in the setting of CKD, corresponding to different baseline characteristics. These results highlight the diversity of HF-type symptom experiences in individuals with CKD.

Cardiorenal Outcomes Among Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Treated With Oral Anticoagulants.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) have progressively replaced vitamin K antagonists (VKAs) for stroke prevention in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF). DOACs cause fewer bleeding complications, but their other advantages, particularly related to kidney outcomes, remain inconclusive. We studied the risks of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression and acute kidney injury (AKI) after DOAC and VKA administration for nonvalvular AF. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Cohort study of Swedish patients enrolled in the Stockholm Creatinine Measurements (SCREAM) project with a diagnosis of nonvalvular AF during 2011-2018. EXPOSURE: Initiation of DOAC or VKA treatment. OUTCOME: Primary outcomes were CKD progression (composite of >30% estimated glomerular filtration rate [eGFR] decline and kidney failure) and AKI (by diagnosis or KDIGO-defined transient creatinine elevations). Secondary outcomes were death, major bleeding, and the composite of stroke and systemic embolism. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Propensity score weighted Cox regression was used to balance 50 baseline confounders. Sensitivity analyses included falsification end points, subgroups, and estimation of per-protocol effects. RESULTS: We included 32,699 patients (56% initiated DOAC) who were observed for a median of 3.8 years. Their median age was 75 years, 45% were women, and 27% had an eGFR <60mL/min/1.73m2. The adjusted HRs for DOAC versus VKA were 0.87 (95% CI, 0.78-0.98) for the risk of CKD progression and 0.88 (95% CI, 0.80-0.97) for AKI. HRs were 0.77 (95% CI, 0.67-0.89) for major bleeding, 0.93 (95% CI, 0.78-1.11) for the composite of stroke and systemic embolism, and 1.04 (95% CI, 0.95-1.14) for death. The results were similar across subgroups of age, sex, and baseline eGFR when restricting to patients at high risk for thromboembolic events and when censoring follow up at treatment discontinuation or change in type of anticoagulation. LIMITATIONS: Missing information on time in therapeutic range and treatment dosages. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with nonvalvular AF treated in routine clinical practice compared with VKA use, DOAC use was associated with a lower risk of CKD progression, AKI, and major bleeding but a similar risk of the composite of stroke, systemic embolism, or death.

Association of the Urine-to-Plasma Urea Ratio With CKD Progression.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVES: The urine-to-plasma (U/P) ratio of urea is correlated with urine-concentrating capacity and associated with progression of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease. As a proposed biomarker of tubular function, we hypothesized that the U/P urea ratio would also be associated with progression of more common forms of chronic kidney disease (CKD). STUDY DESIGN: Observational cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: 3,723 adults in the United States with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20-70 mL/min/1.73 m2, enrolled in the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort (CRIC) Study. EXPOSURE: U/P urea ratio, calculated from 24-hour urine collections and plasma samples at baseline. OUTCOME: Associations of U/P urea ratio with eGFR slope, initiation of kidney replacement therapy (KRT), and CKD progression, defined as 50% decline in eGFR or incident KRT. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Multivariable linear mixed-effects models tested associations with eGFR slope. Cox proportional hazards models tested associations with dichotomous CKD outcomes. RESULTS: The median U/P urea ratio was 14.8 (IQR, 9.5-22.2). Compared with participants in the highest U/P urea ratio quintile, those in the lowest quintile had a greater eGFR decline by 1.06 mL/min/1.73 m2 per year (P < 0.001) over 7.0 (IQR, 3.0-11.0) years of follow-up observation. Each 1-SD lower natural log-transformed U/P urea ratio was independently associated with CKD progression (HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.12-1.33]) and incident KRT (HR, 1.22 [95% CI, 1.10-1.33]). Associations differed by baseline eGFR (P interaction = 0.009). Among those with an eGFR ≥30 mL/min/1.73 m2, each 1-SD lower in ln(U/P urea ratio) was independently associated with CKD progression (HR, 1.30 [95% CI, 1.18-1.45]), but this was not significant among those with eGFR <30 mL/min/1.73 m2 (HR, 1.00 [95% CI, 0.84-1.20]). LIMITATIONS: Possibility of residual confounding. Single baseline 24-hour urine collection for U/P urea ratio. CONCLUSIONS: In a large and diverse cohort of patients with common forms of CKD, U/P urea was independently associated with disease progression and incident kidney failure. Associations were not significant among those with advanced CKD at baseline.

Nutritional Epidemiology and Dietary Assessment for Patients With Kidney Disease: A Primer.

Nutritional epidemiology seeks to understand nutritional determinants of disease in human populations using experimental and observational study designs. Though randomized controlled trials provide the strongest evidence of causality, the expense and difficulty of sustaining adherence to dietary interventions are substantial barriers to investigating dietary determinants of kidney disease. Therefore, nutritional epidemiology commonly employs observational study designs, particularly prospective cohort studies, to investigate long-term associations between dietary exposures and kidney disease. Due to the covarying nature and synergistic effects of dietary components, holistic characterizations of dietary exposures that simultaneously consider patterns of foods and nutrients regularly consumed are generally more relevant to disease etiology than single nutrients or foods. Dietary intakes have traditionally been self-reported and are subject to bias. Statistical methods including energy adjustment and regression calibration can reduce random and systematic measurement errors associated with self-reported diet. Novel approaches that assess diet more objectively are gaining popularity but have not yet fully replaced self-report and require refinement and validation in populations with chronic kidney disease. More accurate and frequent diet assessment in existing and future studies will yield evidence to better personalize dietary recommendations for the prevention and treatment of kidney disease.

Association of an Acute Kidney Injury Follow-up Clinic With Patient Outcomes and Care Processes: A Cohort Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: To determine whether attendance at an acute kidney injury (AKI) follow-up clinic is associated with reduced major adverse kidney events. STUDY DESIGN: Propensity-matched cohort study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Patients hospitalized with AKI in Ontario, Canada, from February 1, 2013, through September 30, 2017, at a single clinical center, who were not receiving dialysis when discharged. EXPOSURE: Standardized assessment by a nephrologist. OUTCOMES: Time to a major adverse kidney event, defined as death, initiation of maintenance dialysis, or incident/progressive chronic kidney disease. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Propensity scores were used to match each patient who attended an AKI follow-up clinic to 4 patients who received standard care. Cox proportional hazards models were fit to assess the association between the care within an AKI follow-up clinic and outcomes. To avoid immortal time bias, we randomly assigned index dates to the comparator group. RESULTS: We matched 164 patients from the AKI follow-up clinic to 656 patients who received standard care. During a mean follow-up of 2.2±1.3 (SD) years, care in the AKI follow-up clinic was not associated with a reduction in major adverse kidney events relative to standard care (22.1 vs 24.7 events per 100 patient-years; HR, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.75-1.11]). The AKI follow-up clinic was associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality (HR, 0.71 [95% CI, 0.55-0.91]). Patients aged at least 66 years who attended the AKI follow-up clinic were more likely to receive ß-blockers (HR, 1.34 [95% CI, 1.02-1.77]) and statins (HR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.05-1.74]), but not angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin receptor blockers (HR, 1.21 [95% CI, 0.94-1.56]). LIMITATIONS: Single-center study and residual confounding. CONCLUSIONS: Specialized postdischarge follow-up for AKI survivors was not associated with a lower risk of major adverse kidney events but was associated with a lower risk of death and increased prescriptions for some cardioprotective medications.

Proteomic signature associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression identified by data-independent acquisition mass spectrometry.

BACKGROUND: Halting progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) to established end stage kidney disease is a major goal of global health research. The mechanism of CKD progression involves pro-inflammatory, pro-fibrotic, and vascular pathways, but pathophysiological differentiation is currently lacking. METHODS: Plasma samples of 414 non-dialysis CKD patients, 170 fast progressors (with ∂ eGFR-3 ml/min/1.73 m2/year or worse) and 244 stable patients (∂ eGFR of - 0.5 to + 1 ml/min/1.73 m2/year) with a broad range of kidney disease aetiologies, were obtained and interrogated for proteomic signals with SWATH-MS. We applied a machine learning approach to feature selection of proteins quantifiable in at least 20% of the samples, using the Boruta algorithm. Biological pathways enriched by these proteins were identified using ClueGo pathway analyses. RESULTS: The resulting digitised proteomic maps inclusive of 626 proteins were investigated in tandem with available clinical data to identify biomarkers of progression. The machine learning model using Boruta Feature Selection identified 25 biomarkers as being important to progression type classification (Area Under the Curve = 0.81, Accuracy = 0.72). Our functional enrichment analysis revealed associations with the complement cascade pathway, which is relevant to CKD as the kidney is particularly vulnerable to complement overactivation. This provides further evidence to target complement inhibition as a potential approach to modulating the progression of diabetic nephropathy. Proteins involved in the ubiquitin-proteasome pathway, a crucial protein degradation system, were also found to be significantly enriched. CONCLUSIONS: The in-depth proteomic characterisation of this large-scale CKD cohort is a step toward generating mechanism-based hypotheses that might lend themselves to future drug targeting. Candidate biomarkers will be validated in samples from selected patients in other large non-dialysis CKD cohorts using a targeted mass spectrometric analysis.

Total cortical interstitial inflammation predicts chronic kidney disease progression in patients with lupus nephritis.

BACKGROUND: End-stage kidney disease (ESKD) from lupus nephritis (LN) is a major cause of morbidity and mortality in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). Kidney biopsy is the gold standard for diagnosis and prognostication of LN. While interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy (IFTA) predict progression to ESKD, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) classification of interstitial inflammation in unscarred cortical parenchyma is not predictive of chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression. The objective of this study was to determine whether total cortical interstitial inflammation that accounts for inflammation in the entire cortical parenchyma could predict CKD progression in patients with LN. Early identification of at-risk patients may improve outcomes. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included 125 SLE patients with LN class III, IV, V or mixed (III/V, IV/V) on the index biopsy (2005-2018). Kidney biopsies were reviewed and assigned based on the 2018 NIH Activity Index (AI) and tubulointerstitial lesion categories. Total interstitial inflammation in the entire cortical parenchyma was graded as 0, 1, 2 or 3, corresponding to <10%, 10-25%, 26-50% and >50%, respectively, of the total cortical parenchyma containing an inflammatory infiltrate (similar to the definition used in the Banff total inflammation score). CKD progression was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate decrease of ≥30% within 5 years after the index biopsy. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and Cox proportional hazards models were performed to compare the two scoring systems, the total cortical intestinal inflammation score and the NIH interstitial inflammation score as predictors of CKD progression. RESULTS: Of 125 patients, 46 experienced CKD progression; 21 of 46 subsequently developed ESKD, 28 (22.4%) had moderate-severe total cortical interstitial inflammation and 8 (6.4%) had moderate-severe NIH interstitial inflammation. There were no differences in baseline characteristics between progressors and nonprogressors. Total cortical interstitial inflammation was associated with CKD progression in time-dependent analyses [hazard ratio 2.45 (95% confidence interval 1.2-4.97)] adjusted for age at biopsy, race, sex, LN class and hypertensive vascular change on kidney biopsy. The NIH interstitial inflammation was not associated with CKD progression. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to the current NIH interstitial inflammation classification, accounting for interstitial inflammation in the entire cortical parenchyma allows identification of patients at risk for CKD progression in LN.

Design and population of the VALOR-CKD study: a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial evaluating the efficacy and safety of veverimer in slowing progression of chronic kidney disease in patients with metabolic acidosis.

BACKGROUND: Whether treating metabolic acidosis slows progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD) has not been established. Veverimer is a novel hydrochloric acid binder that removes acid from the gastrointestinal tract leading to an increase in serum bicarbonate; it is being developed to treat metabolic acidosis with the goal of slowing progression of CKD. METHODS: The VALOR-CKD trial is an international, randomized, multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled study designed to evaluate the effect of once-daily veverimer on kidney disease progression in patients with metabolic acidosis and CKD. Eligibility criteria include a serum bicarbonate in the range of 12-20 mmol/L and an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) of 20-40 mL/min/1.73 m2. The primary outcome is kidney disease progression defined as the development of end-stage kidney disease, a sustained decline in eGFR of >40% from baseline or death due to kidney failure. Key secondary endpoints include effects on physical function. RESULTS: Between December 2018 and December 2021, 1480 participants were randomized. The mean age at baseline was 65.1 years and 42% of the patients were female. The mean baseline eGFR was 29.1 mL/min/1.73 m2 and mean serum bicarbonate was 17.5 mmol/L. The median urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio at screening was 201 mg/g and the median 5-year predicted risk of kidney failure was 32%. Diabetes and hypertension were present in 56% and 98% of participants, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: VALOR-CKD has recruited a large population of people with metabolic acidosis at high risk for CKD progression to determine the effects of veverimer on the risk of progressive loss of kidney function.

Biomarkers of eGFR decline after cardiac surgery in children: findings from the ASSESS-AKI study.

BACKGROUND: Children who require surgery for congenital heart disease have increased risk for long-term chronic kidney disease (CKD). Clinical factors as well as urine biomarkers of tubular health and injury may help improve the prognostication of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline. METHODS: We enrolled children from 1 month to 18 years old undergoing cardiac surgery in the ASSESS-AKI cohort. We used mixed-effect models to assess the association between urinary biomarkers (log2-transformed uromodulin, NGAL, KIM-1, IL-18, L-FABP) measured 3 months after cardiac surgery and cyanotic heart disease with the rate of eGFR decline at annual in-person visits over 4 years. RESULTS: Of the 117 children enrolled, 30 (24%) had cyanotic heart disease. During 48 months of follow-up, the median eGFR in the subgroup of children with cyanotic heart disease was lower at all study visits as compared with children with acyanotic heart disease (p = 0.01). In the overall cohort, lower levels of both urine uromodulin and IL-18 after discharge were associated with eGFR decline. After adjustment for age, RACHS-1 surgical complexity score, proteinuria, and eGFR at the 3-month study visit, lower concentrations of urine uromodulin and IL-18 were associated with a monthly decline in eGFR (uromodulin ß = 0.04 (95% CI: 0.00-0.09; p = 0.07) IL-18 ß = 0.07 (95% CI: 0.01-0.13; p = 0.04), ml/min/1.73 m2 per month). CONCLUSIONS: At 3 months after cardiac surgery, children with lower urine uromodulin and IL-18 concentrations experienced a significantly faster decline in eGFR. Children with cyanotic heart disease had a lower median eGFR at all time points but did not experience faster eGFR decline. A higher-resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information.

Association between serum total cholesterol and chronic kidney disease progression in children: results from the KNOW-PedCKD.

BACKGROUND: Dyslipidemia can cause cardiovascular disease and increase the fatality rate among children with chronic kidney disease (CKD); this makes early screening and treatment of dyslipidemia crucial. This study aimed to assess the association between the changes in serum total cholesterol levels over time and the degree of CKD progression in children. METHODS: From April 2011 to August 2021, 379 of the 432 participants enrolled in the KoreaN cohort study for Outcomes in patients With Pediatric CKD (KNOW-PedCKD) were included and divided into 4 categories based on total cholesterol levels (< 170 mg/dL, acceptable; 170-199, borderline; 200-239, high; and ≥ 240, very high). Survival analysis using conventional and time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model were performed for a composite event of CKD progression (≥ 50% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate from baseline, a twofold increase in creatinine, or the occurrence of dialysis or kidney transplantation). RESULT: The incidence of composite event of CKD progression was 96.3, 90.4, 87.3, and 270.6 cases per 1000 person-years in the acceptable, borderline, high, and very high categories, respectively. On using the time-dependent Cox proportional hazards model, the hazard ratio of the very high category was significantly higher than that of the acceptable category by 3.13 times as per univariate analysis and 2.37 times as per multivariate analysis. CONCLUSIONS: Very high serum total cholesterol is a significant risk factor for CKD progression in children. Lowering total cholesterol levels below the very high category in children with CKD may delay the progression of CKD. A higher resolution version of the Graphical abstract is available as Supplementary information.

Nephrology Referral Based on Laboratory Values, Kidney Failure Risk, or Both: A Study Using Veterans Affairs Health System Data.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Current guidelines for nephrology referral are based on laboratory criteria. We sought to evaluate whether nephrology referral patterns reflect current clinical practice guidelines and to estimate the change in referral volume if they were based on the estimated risk of kidney failure. STUDY DESIGN: Observational cohort. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Retrospective study of 399,644 veterans with chronic kidney disease (October 1, 2015 through September 30, 2016). EXPOSURE: Laboratory referral criteria based on Veterans Affairs/Department of Defense guidelines, categories of predicted risk for kidney failure using the Kidney Failure Risk Equation, and the combination of laboratory referral criteria and predicted risk. OUTCOME: Number of patients identified for referral. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: We evaluated the number of patients who were referred and their predicted 2-year risk for kidney failure. For each exposure, we estimated the number of patients who would be identified for referral. RESULTS: There were 66,276 patients who met laboratory indications for referral. Among these patients, 11,752 (17.7%) were referred to nephrology in the following year. The median 2-year predicted risk of kidney failure was 1.5% (interquartile range, 0.3%-4.7%) among all patients meeting the laboratory referral criteria. If referrals were restricted to patients with a predicted risk of ≥1% in addition to laboratory indications, the potential referral volume would be reduced from 66,276 to 38,229 patients. If referrals were based on predicted risk alone, a 2-year risk threshold of 1% or higher would identify a similar number of patients (72,948) as laboratory-based criteria with median predicted risk of 2.3% (interquartile range, 1.4%-4.6%). LIMITATIONS: Missing proteinuria measurements. CONCLUSIONS: The current laboratory-based guidelines for nephrology referral identify patients who are, on average, at low risk for progression, most of whom are not referred. As an alternative, referral based on a 2-year kidney failure risk exceeding 1% would identify a similar number of patients but with a higher median risk of kidney failure.

Association of GSTM1 Deletion With Progression of CKD in Children: Findings From the Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) Study.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Loss of function of the product of the GSTM1 gene has been implicated in rapid progression of adult chronic kidney disease (CKD). Its role in pediatric CKD has not been previously described. STUDY DESIGN: Secondary analysis of a prospective observational cohort examining the association between deletions in GSTM1 and progression of CKD. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: We used data and samples from the prospective Chronic Kidney Disease in Children (CKiD) cohort aged 1-16 years at enrollment with CKD. EXPOSURE: We defined the exposure as fewer than 2 GSTM1 alleles on real-time polymerase chain reaction amplification. OUTCOME: The primary outcome was a composite of 50% decrease in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) or start of kidney replacement therapy. Secondary outcomes included remission of proteinuria in children with glomerular disease and cardiovascular complications. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: The primary analysis was by Cox proportional hazards model. Analysis was adjusted for age, sex, race, ethnicity, body mass index category, diagnosis category, and eGFR. RESULTS: The analysis included 674 children. Their mean age at most recent visit was 11.9 years; 61% were male, and 20% were Black. There were 241 occurrences of the primary outcome at the time of analysis. After adjustment for baseline characteristics, the risk of progression of CKD for exposed children was 1.94 (95% CI, 1.27-2.97). The effect size was similar with either 1 or 2 deletions (autosomal dominant inheritance). The relationships between number of functional GSTM1 alleles and prespecified secondary outcomes were not statistically significant after adjustment. LIMITATIONS: Missing data, especially for secondary outcomes, and relatively small sample size compared to genetic studies in adults. CONCLUSIONS: GSTM1 deletion is associated with more rapid progression of pediatric CKD after adjustment in this large prospective cohort. No statistically significant associations were seen with secondary outcomes. If replicated, these findings may inform development of interventions for CKD in children.

Clinical Trial Considerations in Developing Treatments for Early Stages of Common, Chronic Kidney Diseases: A Scientific Workshop Cosponsored by the National Kidney Foundation and the US Food and Drug Administration.

In the past decade, advances in the validation of surrogate end points for chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression have heightened interest in evaluating therapies in early CKD. In December 2020, the National Kidney Foundation sponsored a scientific workshop in collaboration with the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to explore patient, provider, and payor perceptions of the value of treating early CKD. The workshop reviewed challenges for trials in early CKD, including trial designs, identification of high-risk populations, and cost-benefit and safety considerations. Over 90 people representing a range of stakeholders including experts in clinical trials, nephrology, cardiology and endocrinology, patient advocacy organizations, patients, payors, health economists, regulators and policy makers attended a virtual meeting. There was consensus among the attendees that there is value to preventing the development and treating the progression of early CKD in people who are at high risk for progression, and that surrogate end points should be used to establish efficacy. Attendees also concluded that cost analyses should be holistic and include aspects beyond direct savings for treatment of kidney failure; and that safety data should be collected outside/beyond the duration of a clinical trial. Successful drug development and implementation of effective therapies will require collaboration across sponsors, patients, patient advocacy organizations, medical community, regulators, and payors.

Aldosterone, Mineralocorticoid Receptor Activation, and CKD: A Review of Evolving Treatment Paradigms.

Mineralocorticoid receptor (MR) activation is involved in propagating kidney injury, inflammation, and fibrosis and in the progression of chronic kidney disease (CKD). Multiple clinical studies have defined the efficacy of MR antagonism in attenuating progressive kidney disease, and the US Food and Drug Administration recently approved the nonsteroidal mineralocorticoid receptor antagonist (MRA) finerenone for this indication. In this review, we consider the basic science and clinical applicability of MR antagonism. Because hyperkalemia constitutes a constraint to implementing evidence-based MR blockade, we review MRA-associated hyperkalemia in the context of finerenone and discuss evolving mitigation strategies to enhance the safety and efficacy of this treatment. Although the FIDELIO-DKD and FIGARO-DKD clinical trials focused solely on patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, we propose that MR activation and the resulting inflammation and fibrosis act as a substantive pathogenetic mediator not only in people with diabetic CKD but also in those with CKD without diabetes. We close by briefly discussing both recently initiated and future clinical trials that focus on extending the attributes of MR antagonism to a wider array of nondiabetic kidney disorders, such as patients with nonalbuminuric CKD.

Estimated GFR Slope Across CKD Stages in Primary Hyperoxaluria Type 1.

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE: Primary hyperoxaluria type 1 (PH1) is an autosomal recessive disorder of glyoxylate metabolism that results in early-onset kidney stone disease, nephrocalcinosis, and kidney failure. There is an unmet need for reliable markers of disease progression to test effectiveness of new treatments for patients with PH. In this study, we assessed the rate of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) decline across chronic kidney disease (CKD) glomerular filtration rate (GFR) categories (CKD G2-G5) in a cohort of patients with PH1. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective observational study. SETTING & PARTICIPANTS: Patients with PH1 enrolled in the Rare Kidney Stone Consortium (RKSC) registry who did not have kidney failure at diagnosis and who had at least 2 eGFR values recorded from within 1 month of diagnosis until their last contact date or incident kidney failure event. PREDICTORS: CKD GFR category, baseline patient and laboratory characteristics. OUTCOME: Annualized rate of eGFR decline. ANALYTICAL APPROACH: Generalized estimating equations and linear regression were used to evaluate the associations between CKD GFR category, baseline patient and laboratory characteristics, and annual change in eGFR during follow-up. RESULTS: Compared with the slope in CKD G2 (-2.3 mL/min/1.73 m2 per year), the mean annual eGFR decline was nominally steeper in CKD G3a (-5.3 mL/min/1.73 m2 per year) and statistically significantly more rapid in CKD G3b and G4 (-14.7 and -16.6 mL/min/1.73 m2 per year, respectively). In CKD G2, older age was associated with a more rapid rate of eGFR decline (P = 0.01). A common PH1-causing variant of alanine glyoxylate aminotransferase, a glycine to arginine substitution at amino acid 170 (G170R), appeared to be associated with less severe annual decline in eGFR. LIMITATIONS: Data at regular time points were not available for all patients due to reliance on voluntary reporting in a retrospective rare disease registry. CONCLUSIONS: The eGFR decline was not uniform across CKD GFR categories in this PH1 population, with a higher rate of eGFR decline in CKD G3b and G4. Thus, CKD GFR category needs to be accounted for when analyzing eGFR change in the setting of PH1.