Improved atmospheric constraints on Southern Ocean CO2 exchange.

We present improved estimates of air-sea CO2 exchange over three latitude bands of the Southern Ocean using atmospheric CO2 measurements from global airborne campaigns and an atmospheric 4-box inverse model based on a mass-indexed isentropic coordinate (Mθe). These flux estimates show two features not clearly resolved in previous estimates based on inverting surface CO2 measurements: a weak winter-time outgassing in the polar region and a sharp phase transition of the seasonal flux cycles between polar/subpolar and subtropical regions. The estimates suggest much stronger summer-time uptake in the polar/subpolar regions than estimates derived through neural-network interpolation of pCO2 data obtained with profiling floats but somewhat weaker uptake than a recent study by Long et al. [Science 374, 1275-1280 (2021)], who used the same airborne data and multiple atmospheric transport models (ATMs) to constrain surface fluxes. Our study also uses moist static energy (MSE) budgets from reanalyses to show that most ATMs tend to have excessive diabatic mixing (transport across moist isentrope, θe, or Mθe surfaces) at high southern latitudes in the austral summer, which leads to biases in estimates of air-sea CO2 exchange. Furthermore, we show that the MSE-based constraint is consistent with an independent constraint on atmospheric mixing based on combining airborne and surface CO2 observations.

Reduced global fire activity due to human demography slows global warming by enhanced land carbon uptake.

Fire is an important climate-driven disturbance in terrestrial ecosystems, also modulated by human ignitions or fire suppression. Changes in fire emissions can feed back on the global carbon cycle, but whether the trajectories of changing fire activity will exacerbate or attenuate climate change is poorly understood. Here, we quantify fire dynamics under historical and future climate and human demography using a coupled global climate­fire­carbon cycle model that emulates 34 individual Earth system models (ESMs). Results are compared with counterfactual worlds, one with a constant preindustrial fire regime and another without fire. Although uncertainty in projected fire effects is large and depends on ESM, socioeconomic trajectory, and emissions scenario, we find that changes in human demography tend to suppress global fire activity, keeping more carbon within terrestrial ecosystems and attenuating warming. Globally, changes in fire have acted to warm climate throughout most of the 20th century. However, recent and predicted future reductions in fire activity may reverse this, enhancing land carbon uptake and corresponding to offsetting ∼5 to 10 y of global CO2 emissions at today's levels. This potentially reduces warming by up to 0.11 °C by 2100. We show that climate­carbon cycle feedbacks, as caused by changing fire regimes, are most effective at slowing global warming under lower emission scenarios. Our study highlights that ignitions and active and passive fire suppression can be as important in driving future fire regimes as changes in climate, although with some risk of more extreme fires regionally and with implications for other ecosystem functions in fire-dependent ecosystems.

AtALMT5 mediates vacuolar fumarate import and regulates the malate/fumarate balance in Arabidopsis.

Malate and fumarate constitute a significant fraction of the carbon fixed by photosynthesis, and they are at the crossroad of central metabolic pathways. In Arabidopsis thaliana, they are transiently stored in the vacuole to keep cytosolic homeostasis. The malate and fumarate transport systems of the vacuolar membrane are key players in the control of cell metabolism. Notably, the molecular identity of these transport systems remains mostly unresolved. We used a combination of imaging, electrophysiology and molecular physiology to identify an important molecular actor of dicarboxylic acid transport across the tonoplast. Here, we report the function of the A. thaliana Aluminium-Activated Malate Transporter 5 (AtALMT5). We characterised its ionic transport properties, expression pattern, localisation and function in vivo. We show that AtALMT5 is expressed in photosynthetically active tissues and localised in the tonoplast. Patch-clamp and in planta analyses demonstrated that AtALMT5 is an ion channel-mediating fumarate loading of the vacuole. We found in almt5 plants a reduced accumulation of fumarate in the leaves, in parallel with increased malate concentrations. These results identified AtALMT5 as an ion channel-mediating fumarate transport in the vacuoles of mesophyll cells and regulating the malate/fumarate balance in Arabidopsis.

Unravelling the neglected role of ultraviolet radiation on stomata: A meta-analysis with implications for modelling ecosystem-climate interactions.

Stomata play a pivotal role in regulating gas exchange between plants and the atmosphere controlling water and carbon cycles. Accordingly, we investigated the impact of ultraviolet-B radiation, a neglected environmental factor varying with ongoing global change, on stomatal morphology and function by a Comprehensive Meta-Analysis. The overall UV effect at the leaf level is to decrease stomatal conductance, stomatal aperture and stomatal size, although stomatal density was increased. The significant decline in stomatal conductance is marked (6% in trees and >10% in grasses and herbs) in short-term experiments, with more modest decreases noted in long-term UV studies. Short-term experiments in growth chambers are not representative of long-term field UV effects on stomatal conductance. Important consequences of altered stomatal function are hypothesized. In the short term, UV-mediated stomatal closure may reduce carbon uptake but also water loss through transpiration, thereby alleviating deleterious effects of drought. However, in the long term, complex changes in stomatal aperture, size, and density may reduce the carbon sequestration capacity of plants and increase vegetation and land surface temperatures, potentially exacerbating negative effects of drought and/or heatwaves. Therefore, the expected future strength of carbon sink capacity in high-UV regions is likely overestimated.

Reconciling the EU forest, biodiversity, and climate strategies.

Forests provide important ecosystem services (ESs), including climate change mitigation, local climate regulation, habitat for biodiversity, wood and non-wood products, energy, and recreation. Simultaneously, forests are increasingly affected by climate change and need to be adapted to future environmental conditions. Current legislation, including the European Union (EU) Biodiversity Strategy, EU Forest Strategy, and national laws, aims to protect forest landscapes, enhance ESs, adapt forests to climate change, and leverage forest products for climate change mitigation and the bioeconomy. However, reconciling all these competing demands poses a tremendous task for policymakers, forest managers, conservation agencies, and other stakeholders, especially given the uncertainty associated with future climate impacts. Here, we used process-based ecosystem modeling and robust multi-criteria optimization to develop forest management portfolios that provide multiple ESs across a wide range of climate scenarios. We included constraints to strictly protect 10% of Europe's land area and to provide stable harvest levels under every climate scenario. The optimization showed only limited options to improve ES provision within these constraints. Consequently, management portfolios suffered from low diversity, which contradicts the goal of multi-functionality and exposes regions to significant risk due to a lack of risk diversification. Additionally, certain regions, especially those in the north, would need to prioritize timber provision to compensate for reduced harvests elsewhere. This conflicts with EU LULUCF targets for increased forest carbon sinks in all member states and prevents an equal distribution of strictly protected areas, introducing a bias as to which forest ecosystems are more protected than others. Thus, coordinated strategies at the European level are imperative to address these challenges effectively. We suggest that the implementation of the EU Biodiversity Strategy, EU Forest Strategy, and targets for forest carbon sinks require complementary measures to alleviate the conflicting demands on forests.

Plant responses to elevated CO2 under competing hypotheses of nitrogen and phosphorus limitations.

The future ecosystem carbon cycle has important implications for biosphere-climate feedback. The magnitude of future plant growth and carbon accumulation depends on plant strategies for nutrient uptake under the stresses of nitrogen (N) versus phosphorus (P) limitations. Two archetypal theories have been widely acknowledged in the literature to represent N and P limitations on ecosystem processes: Liebig's Law of the Minimum (LLM) and the Multiple Element Limitation (MEL) approach. LLM states that the more limiting nutrient controls plant growth, and commonly leads to predictions of dramatically dampened ecosystem carbon accumulation over the 21st century. Conversely, the MEL approach recognizes that plants possess multiple pathways to coordinate N and P availability and invest resources to alleviate N or P limitation. We implemented these two contrasting approaches in the E3SM model, and compiled 98 in situ forest N or P fertilization experiments to evaluate how terrestrial ecosystems will respond to N and P limitations. We find that MEL better captured the observed plant responses to nutrient perturbations globally, compared with LLM. Furthermore, LLM and MEL diverged dramatically in responses to elevated CO2 concentrations, leading to a two-fold difference in CO2 fertilization effects on Net Primary Productivity by the end of the 21st century. The larger CO2 fertilization effects indicated by MEL mainly resulted from plant mediation on N and P resource supplies through N2 fixation and phosphatase activities. This analysis provides quantitative evidence of how different N and P limitation strategies can diversely affect future carbon and nutrient dynamics.

Net-Zero Embodied Carbon in Buildings with Today's Available Technologies.

Greenhouse gas emissions from building construction─i.e., the embodied carbon in buildings─are a significant and growing contributor to the climate crisis. However, our understanding of how to decarbonize building construction remains limited. This study shows that net-zero embodied carbon in buildings is achievable across Japan by 2050 using currently available technologies: decarbonized electricity supply, low-carbon steel, low-carbon concrete, increased timber structures, optimized design, and enhanced building lifespan. The largest emissions savings would come from increased use of timber structures, with annual savings of up to ∼35% by 2050, even in cases where timber replaces low-carbon steel and concrete. Moreover, we show that an expanded domestic timber supply, coupled with responsible reforestation, could improve forest carbon uptake by up to ∼60% compared to the business-as-usual scenario, without the need to increase forest area. This is achieved through a forest-city carbon cycle that transfers carbon stocks of mature trees to cities as building materials and rejuvenates forests through reforestation. Collectively, our analysis demonstrates that the decarbonization of building construction depends not on future technological innovation, but rather on how we design and use buildings with the options we already have.

High organic carbon content constricts the potential for stable organic carbon accrual in mineral agricultural soils in Finland.

Sequestering carbon into agricultural soils is considered as a means of mitigating climate change. We used agronomic soil test results representing c. 95% of the farmed land area in Finland to estimate the potential of the uppermost 15 cm soil layer of mineral agricultural soils to sequester organic carbon (OC) and to contribute to the mitigation of climate change. The estimation of the maximum capacity of mineral matter to protect OC in stable mineral-associated form was based on the theory that clay and fine-sized (fines = clay + silt) particles have a limited capacity to protect OC. In addition, we used the clay/OC and fines/OC ratios to identify areas with a risk of erosion and reduced productivity, thus indicating priority areas potentially benefitting from the increased soil OC contents. We found that 32-40% of the mineral agricultural soils in Finland have the potential to further accumulate mineral-associated OC (MOC), while in the majority of soils, the current OC stock in the uppermost 15 cm exceeded the capacity of mineral matter to protect OC. The nationwide soil OC sequestration potential of the uppermost 15 cm in mineral agricultural soils ranged between 0.21 and 0.26 Tg, which corresponds to less than 2% of annual greenhouse gas emissions in Finland. The fields with the highest potential for SOC accrual were found in the southern and southwestern parts of the country, including some of the most intensively cultivated high-clay soils. Although the nationwide potential for additional OC sequestration was estimated to be relatively small, the current OC storage in Finnish arable mineral soils (0-15 cm) is large, 128 Tg. Farming practices enabling maximum OC input into the soil play an important role as a tool for mitigating the loss of carbon from high-OC soils in the changing climate. Furthermore, especially in high-clay areas with potential for MOC accrual, efforts to increase soil OC could help improve soil structural stability and therefore reduce erosion and the loss of nutrients to the aquatic environments.

Increased ecological land and atmospheric CO2 dominate the growth of ecosystem carbon sinks under the regulation of environmental conditions in national key ecological function zones in China.

Increased ecological land (IEL) such as forests and grasslands can greatly enhance ecosystem carbon sinks. Understanding the mechanisms for the magnitude of IEL-induced ecosystem carbon sinks is crucial for achieving carbon neutrality. We estimated the impact of IEL, specifically the increase in forests and grasslands, as well as global changes including atmospheric CO2 concentration, nitrogen deposition, and climate change on net ecosystem productivity (NEP) in National Key Ecological Function Zones (NKEFZs) in China using a calibrated ecological process model. The NEP in NKEFZs in China was calculated to be 119.4 Tg C yr-1, showing an increase of 42.6 Tg C yr-1 from 2001 to 2021. Compared to the slight contributions of climate change (-8.0%), nitrogen deposition (11.5%), and reduction in ecological land (-3.5%), the increase in NEP was primarily attributed to CO2 (66.5%) and IEL (33.5%). Moreover, the effect of IEL (14.8 Tg C yr-1) surpassed that of global change (13.1 Tg C yr-1) in the land use change zone. The IEL-induced NEP is significantly associated with CO2 fertilization, regulated by precipitation and nitrogen deposition. The high values of IEL-induced NEP occurred in areas with precipitation exceeding 800 mm and nitrogen deposition exceeding 25 kg N ha-1 yr-1. We recommend prioritizing the expansion of ecological land in areas with sufficient water and nutrients to enhance CO2 fertilization, while avoiding increasing ecological land in regions facing unfavorable climate change conditions. This study serves as a foundation for comprehending the NEP response to ecological restoration and global change.

Convergence of carbon sink magnitude and water table depth in global wetlands.

Wetlands are strategic areas for carbon uptake, but accurate assessments of their sequestration ability are limited by the uncertainty and variability in their carbon balances. Based on 2385 observations of annual net ecosystem production from global wetlands, we show that the mean net carbon sinks of inland wetlands, peatlands and coastal wetlands are 0.57, 0.29 and 1.88 tons of carbon per hectare per year, respectively, with a mean value of 0.57 tons of carbon per hectare per year weighted by the distribution area of different wetland types. Carbon sinks are mainly in Asia and North America. Within and across wetland types, we find that water table depth (WTD) exerts greater control than climate- and ecosystem-related variables, and an increase in WTD results in a stronger carbon sink. Our results highlight an urgent need to sustain wetland hydrology under global change; otherwise, wetlands are at high risk of becoming carbon sources to the atmosphere.

Atmospheric phosphorus deposition amplifies carbon sinks in simulations of a tropical forest in Central Africa.

Spatial redistribution of nutrients by atmospheric transport and deposition could theoretically act as a continental-scale mechanism which counteracts declines in soil fertility caused by nutrient lock-up in accumulating biomass in tropical forests in Central Africa. However, to what extent it affects carbon sinks in forests remains elusive. Here we use a terrestrial biosphere model to quantify the impact of changes in atmospheric nitrogen and phosphorus deposition on plant nutrition and biomass carbon sink at a typical lowland forest site in Central Africa. We find that the increase in nutrient deposition since the 1980s could have contributed to the carbon sink over the past four decades up to an extent which is similar to that from the combined effects of increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide and climate change. Furthermore, we find that the modelled carbon sink responds to changes in phosphorus deposition, but less so to nitrogen deposition. The pronounced response of ecosystem productivity to changes in nutrient deposition illustrates a potential mechanism that could control carbon sinks in Central Africa. Monitoring the quantity and quality of nutrient deposition is needed in this region, given the changes in nutrient deposition due to human land use.

Opposing seasonal temperature dependencies of CO2 and CH4 emissions from wetlands.

Wetlands are critically important to global climate change because of their role in modulating the release of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) carbon dioxide (CO2 ) and methane (CH4 ). Temperature plays a crucial role in wetland GHG emissions, while the general pattern for seasonal temperature dependencies of wetland CO2 and CH4 emissions is poorly understood. Here we show opposite seasonal temperature dependencies of CO2 and CH4 emissions by using 36,663 daily observations of simultaneous measurements of ecosystem-scale CO2 and CH4 emissions in 42 widely distributed wetlands from the FLUXNET-CH4 database. Specifically, the temperature dependence of CO2 emissions decreased with increasing monthly mean temperature, but the opposite was true for that of CH4 emissions. Neglecting seasonal temperature dependencies may overestimate wetland CO2 and CH4 emissions compared to the use of a year-based static and consistent temperature dependence parameter when only considering temperature effects. Our findings highlight the importance of incorporating the remarkable seasonality in temperature dependence into process-based biogeochemical models to predict feedbacks of wetland GHG emissions to climate warming.

Lipids of different phytoplankton groups differ in sensitivity to degradation: Implications for carbon export.

The future of life on Earth depends on how the ocean might change, as it plays an important role in mitigating the effects of global warming. The main role is played by phytoplankton. Not only are phytoplankton the base of the oceans' food web, but they also play an important role in the biological carbon pump (BCP), the process of forming organic matter (OM) and transporting it to the deep sea, representing a sink of atmospheric CO2 . Lipids are considered important vectors for carbon sequestration. A change in the phytoplankton community composition as a result of ocean warming is expected to affect the BCP. Many predictions indicate a dominance of small at the expense of large phytoplankton. To gain insight into interplay between the phytoplankton community structure, lipid production and degradation, and adverse environmental conditions, we analyzed phytoplankton composition, particulate organic carbon (POC) and its lipid fraction in the northern Adriatic over a period from winter to summer at seven stations with a gradient of trophic conditions. We found that at high salinity and low nutrient content, where nanophytoplankton prevailed over diatoms, the newly fixed carbon is substantially directed toward the synthesis of lipids. Lipids produced by nanophytoplankton, coccolithophores, and phytoflagellates, are more resistant to degradation than those produced by diatoms. The difference in lipid degradability is discussed as a difference in the size of the cell phycosphere. We hypothesize that the lipids of nanophytoplankton are less degradable due to the small phycosphere with a poorer bacterial community and consequently a lower lipid degradation rate compared with diatoms. The lipid chemical composition of the different phytoplankton groups could have a different susceptibility to degradation. Results suggest a successful lipid carbon sink of nanophytoplankton and, thus, a negative feedback on global warming.

How drought events during the last century have impacted biomass carbon in Amazonian rainforests.

During the last two decades, inventory data show that droughts have reduced biomass carbon sink of the Amazon forest by causing mortality to exceed growth. However, process-based models have struggled to include drought-induced responses of growth and mortality and have not been evaluated against plot data. A process-based model, ORCHIDEE-CAN-NHA, including forest demography with tree cohorts, plant hydraulic architecture and drought-induced tree mortality, was applied over Amazonia rainforests forced by gridded climate fields and rising CO2 from 1901 to 2019. The model reproduced the decelerating signal of net carbon sink and drought sensitivity of aboveground biomass (AGB) growth and mortality observed at forest plots across selected Amazon intact forests for 2005 and 2010. We predicted a larger mortality rate and a more negative sensitivity of the net carbon sink during the 2015/16 El Niño compared with the former droughts. 2015/16 was indeed the most severe drought since 1901 regarding both AGB loss and area experiencing a severe carbon loss. We found that even if climate change did increase mortality, elevated CO2 contributed to balance the biomass mortality, since CO2 -induced stomatal closure reduces transpiration, thus, offsets increased transpiration from CO2 -induced higher foliage area.

Climate-driven variability of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink.

The Southern Ocean is a major sink of atmospheric CO2, but the nature and magnitude of its variability remains uncertain and debated. Estimates based on observations suggest substantial variability that is not reproduced by process-based ocean models, with increasingly divergent estimates over the past decade. We examine potential constraints on the nature and magnitude of climate-driven variability of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink from observation-based air-sea O2 fluxes. On interannual time scales, the variability in the air-sea fluxes of CO2 and O2 estimated from observations is consistent across the two species and positively correlated with the variability simulated by ocean models. Our analysis suggests that variations in ocean ventilation related to the Southern Annular Mode are responsible for this interannual variability. On decadal time scales, the existence of significant variability in the air-sea CO2 flux estimated from observations also tends to be supported by observation-based estimates of O2 flux variability. However, the large decadal variability in air-sea CO2 flux is absent from ocean models. Our analysis suggests that issues in representing the balance between the thermal and non-thermal components of the CO2 sink and/or insufficient variability in mode water formation might contribute to the lack of decadal variability in the current generation of ocean models. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.

Sparse observations induce large biases in estimates of the global ocean CO2 sink: an ocean model subsampling experiment.

Estimates of ocean [Formula: see text] uptake from global ocean biogeochemistry models and [Formula: see text]-based data products differ substantially, especially in high latitudes and in the trend of the [Formula: see text] uptake since 2000. Here, we assess the effect of data sparsity on two [Formula: see text]-based estimates by subsampling output from a global ocean biogeochemistry model. The estimates of the ocean [Formula: see text] uptake are improved from a sampling scheme that mimics present-day sampling to an ideal sampling scheme with 1000 evenly distributed sites. In particular, insufficient sampling has given rise to strong biases in the trend of the ocean carbon sink in the [Formula: see text] products. The overestimation of the [Formula: see text] flux trend by 20-35% globally and 50-130% in the Southern Ocean with the present-day sampling is reduced to less than [Formula: see text] with the ideal sampling scheme. A substantial overestimation of the decadal variability of the Southern Ocean carbon sink occurs in one product and appears related to a skewed data distribution in [Formula: see text] space. With the ideal sampling, the bias in the mean [Formula: see text] flux is reduced from 9-12% to 2-9% globally and from 14-26% to 5-17% in the Southern Ocean. On top of that, discrepancies of about [Formula: see text] (15%) persist due to uncertainties in the gas-exchange calculation. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'Heat and carbon uptake in the Southern Ocean: the state of the art and future priorities'.

Divergent response to abiotic factor determines the decoupling of water and carbon fluxes over an artificial C4 shrub in desert.

Knowledge on relationship and determinants of water and carbon dioxide (CO2) exchange is crucial to land managers and policy makers especially for the desertified land restoration. However, there remains highly uncertain in terms of water use and carbon sequestration for artificial plantation in desert. Here, continuous water and carbon fluxes were measured using eddy covariance (EC) in conjunction with hydrometeorological measurements over an artificial C4 shrub, Haloxylon ammodendron (C. A. Mey.) Bunge, from July 2020 to 2021 in Tengger Desert, China. Throughout 2021, evapotranspiration (ET) was 189.5 mm, of which 85% (150 mm) occurred during growing season, that was comparable with the summation of precipitation (132.2 mm), dew (33.5 mm) and potential other sources (e.g. deep subsoil water). This ecosystem was a strong carbon sink with net ecosystem production (NEP) up to 446.4 g C m-2 yr-1, much higher than surrounding sites. Gross primary production (GPP, 598.7 g C m-2 yr-1) in this shrubland was comparable with that of other shrublands, whereas ecosystem respiration (Re, 152.3 g C m-2 yr-1) was lower. Random Forest showed that environmental factors can explain 71.56% and 80.07% variation of GPP and ET, respectively. Interestingly, environmental factors have divergent effect on water and carbon exchange, i.e., soil hydrothermic factors (soil moisture content and soil temperature) determine the magnitude and seasonal pattern of ET and Re, while aerodynamics factors (net radiation, atmospheric temperature and wind speed) determine GPP and NEP. As such, divergent response of abiotic factors resulted in the decoupling of water and carbon exchange. Our results suggest that H. ammodendron is a suitable species for large-scale afforestation in dryland given its low water use but high carbon sequestration. Therefore, we infer that artificial planting H. ammodendron in dryland could provide an opportunity for climate change mitigation, and the long-term time series data is needed to confirm its sustainable role of carbon sequestration in the future.

Assessment of greenhouse gases emissions and intensity from Chinese marine aquaculture in the past three decades.

Marine aquaculture is increasingly gaining importance as a source of food with high nutritional value. However, the expansion of aquaculture could be responsible for water contamination that influences the environmental quality of coastal ecosystems, and emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) that affect global climate. China is the world's largest producer of marine aquaculture protein, which demands robust studies to assess the corresponding GHG emissions and intensity. To fill in this knowledge gap, the current study quantifies and analyzes GHG emissions and intensity (emission intensity is defined as GHG emissions per unit of production) from Chinese marine aquaculture (marine aquaculture production) over the past 30 years (1991-2020). The production of marine aquaculture comes from the China Fisheries Statistical Yearbooks. And the GHG emissions and intensity were calculated based on five sectors (commercial feed, trash fish, N2O, CH4, and energy) by Emission-Factor Approach. The results suggest that, excluding shellfish and algae, GHG emissions of ten coastal provinces (excluding Shanghai, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Macau) increased from 2 Mt (109 kg) CO2-eq in 1991 to 25 Mt CO2-eq in 2020. In contrast, GHG emission intensity decreased in the same period from 7.33 (t CO2-eq/t production) to 6.34 (t CO2-eq/t production), indicating a progressive mitigation in GHG emissions per unit of product, hence sustainably satisfying a growing demand for food. As a result, China's marine aquaculture seems to be paving a promising way towards the neutrality of GHG emissions. In most provinces, GHG is on the rise, and only in Tianjin is on the decline in recent years. For the emissions intensity, the values of more than half provinces showed the downtrends. In addition, by considering the ratio of shellfish and algae, Chinese marine aquaculture can improve the net zero goal for GHG emissions of the sector. Finally, results also reveal for the first time the changes in taxonomic composition and spatial GHG emissions and intensity, providing new understanding and scientific bases to elaborate consistent mitigation strategies for an expanding global marine aquaculture.

Does forest farm carbon sink projects affect agricultural development? Evidence from a Quasi-experiment in China.

Forest Farm Carbon Sink (FFCS) projects are one of the effective ways to achieve carbon neutrality and mitigate global warming. Though the existing literature has widely discussed the effect of FFCS on the allocation of agricultural factors, such as land, labor employment structure and income structure, little is known about whether FFCS projects could have an effect on agricultural development. Based on the panel data of 140 counties in Sichuan province, China, from 2002 to 2018, we examined the causal effect on agricultural total factor productivity (TFP), and revealed their dynamic effect and underlying mechanisms. Propensity score matching and the difference in difference (PSM-DID) method were used to address the endogeneity problem of FFCS implementation. Results showed that FFCS projects increased agricultural TFP by 1.7%-2.4%. Health, saving and industrial structure were the important channels through which FFCS projects affect agricultural TFP. Our findings suggest that policies promoting FFCS projects can increase agricultural TFP while achieving environmental goals-a win-win situation.

Will climate change cause the global peatland to expand or contract? Evidence from the habitat shift pattern of Sphagnum mosses.

Peatlands play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle. Sphagnum mosses (peat mosses) are considered to be the peatland ecosystem engineers and contribute to the carbon accumulation in the peatland ecosystems. As cold-adapted species, the dominance of Sphagnum mosses in peatlands will be threatened by climate warming. The response of Sphagnum mosses to climate change is closely related to the future trajectory of carbon fluxes in peatlands. However, the impact of climate change on the habitat suitability of Sphagnum mosses on a global scale is poorly understood. To predict the potential impact of climate change on the global distribution of Sphagnum mosses, we used the MaxEnt model to predict the potential geographic distribution of six Sphagnum species that dominate peatlands in the future (2050 and 2070) under two greenhouse gas emission scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). The results show that the mean temperature of the coldest quarter, precipitation of the driest month, and topsoil calcium carbonate are the main factors affecting the habitat availability of Sphagnum mosses. As the climate warms, Sphagnum mosses tend to migrate northward. The suitable habitat and abundance of Sphagnum mosses increase extensively in the high-latitude boreal peatland (north of 50°N) and decrease on a large scale beyond the high-latitude boreal peatland. The southern edge of boreal peatlands would experience the greatest decline in the suitable habitat and richness of Sphagnum mosses with the temperature rising and would be a risk area for the transition from carbon sink to carbon source. The spatial-temporal pattern changes of Sphagnum mosses simulated in this study provide a reference for the development of management and conservation strategies for Sphagnum bogs.