Multi-cohort analysis of host immune response identifies conserved protective and detrimental modules associated with severity across viruses.

Viral infections induce a conserved host response distinct from bacterial infections. We hypothesized that the conserved response is associated with disease severity and is distinct between patients with different outcomes. To test this, we integrated 4,780 blood transcriptome profiles from patients aged 0 to 90 years infected with one of 16 viruses, including SARS-CoV-2, Ebola, chikungunya, and influenza, across 34 cohorts from 18 countries, and single-cell RNA sequencing profiles of 702,970 immune cells from 289 samples across three cohorts. Severe viral infection was associated with increased hematopoiesis, myelopoiesis, and myeloid-derived suppressor cells. We identified protective and detrimental gene modules that defined distinct trajectories associated with mild versus severe outcomes. The interferon response was decoupled from the protective host response in patients with severe outcomes. These findings were consistent, irrespective of age and virus, and provide insights to accelerate the development of diagnostics and host-directed therapies to improve global pandemic preparedness.

Incidence trends of primary liver cancer in different geographical regions of China from 1978 to 2012 and projections to 2032: An age-period-cohort analysis.

China accounted for 45.3% of new cases of primary liver cancer (PLC) worldwide in 2020. While variations in PLC incidence between different regions of China and decreasing incidence in overall China have been reported, incidence patterns have not been thoroughly explored by region. We examined the nearly status and temporal trends of PLC incidence in different geographical regions in China and project future trends. The age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) was estimated for 1978 to 2012 by different geographical regions and gender in China. Age-period-cohort model was adopted to evaluate age and birth cohort effects on the temporal trend of five registries of China (Hong Kong, Shanghai, Jiashan, Harbin and Zhongshan), Bayesian age-period-cohort model was adopted to project future trends for 2013 to 2032. PLC incidence in China exhibits marked geographical disparity, with the highest incidence in Southwest China, and gender differences being particularly pronounced in South China. While other registries exhibited decreasing trend, Zhongshan exhibited an increasing trend, with the cohort effect showing a marked upward trend for females born in 1916 to 1949 and males born in 1916 to 1962. During 2013 to 2032, the ASR appears to increase by 86.9% for men and 40.0% for women in Zhongshan, while the remaining registries will decline by around 50%. Since the high incidence of hepatitis B virus infection in early birth cohort, recent rise of nonviral risk factors and the severe aging of the Chinese population, it may be critical to tailor future prevention and control strategies for PLC to the distribution of risk factors in different geographical regions.

Age-specific incidence trends of 32 cancers in China, 1983 to 2032: Evidence from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents.

The long-term incidence trends of 32 cancers in China remained unclear. Cancer statistics for young population were often presented in aggregate, masking important heterogeneity. We aimed to assess the incidence trends of 32 cancers in China from 1983 to 2032, stratified by sex and age groups. Data on cancer incidence from 1983 to 2017 were extracted from Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Volumes VI-XII. The age-period-cohort model was utilized to assess age and birth cohort effects on the temporal trends of 32 cancers in China, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to project future trends from 2018 to 2032. An increase in cohort effects is observed in some cancers such as thyroid and kidney cancers. Eight of the 12 obesity-related cancers may rise in the 0-14 age group, and nine in the 15-39 age group from 2013 to 2032. Liver and stomach cancers show an increasing trend among the younger population, contrasting with the observed declining trend in the middle-aged population. There has been a significant rise in the proportions of cervical cancer among females aged 40-64 (4.3%-19.1%), and prostate cancer among males aged 65+ (1.1%-11.8%) from 1983 to 2032. Cancer spectrum in China is shifting toward that in developed countries. Incidence rates of most cancers across different age groups may increase in recent cohorts. It is essential to insist effective preventive interventions, and promote healthier lifestyles, such as reducing obesity, especially among younger population.

Regression calibration of self-reported mobile phone use to optimize quantitative risk estimation in the COSMOS study.

The Cohort Study of Mobile Phone Use and Health (COSMOS) has repeatedly collected self-reported and operator-recorded data on mobile phone use. Assessing health effects using self-reported information is prone to measurement error, but operator data were available prospectively for only part of the study population and did not cover past mobile phone use. To optimize the available data and reduce bias, we evaluated different statistical approaches for constructing mobile phone exposure histories within COSMOS. We evaluated and compared the performance of four regression calibration (RC) methods (simple, direct, inverse, and generalized additive model for location, shape, and scale), complete-case (CC) analysis and multiple imputation (MI) in a simulation study with a binary health outcome. We used self-reported and operator-recorded mobile phone call data collected at baseline (2007-2012) from participants in Denmark, Finland, the Netherlands, Sweden, and the UK. Parameter estimates obtained using simple, direct, and inverse RC methods were associated with less bias and lower mean squared error than those obtained with CC analysis or MI. We showed that RC methods resulted in more accurate estimation of the relation between mobile phone use and health outcomes, by combining self-reported data with objective operator-recorded data available for a subset of participants.

A computational approach for detecting physiological homogeneity in the midst of genetic heterogeneity.

The human genetic dissection of clinical phenotypes is complicated by genetic heterogeneity. Gene burden approaches that detect genetic signals in case-control studies are underpowered in genetically heterogeneous cohorts. We therefore developed a genome-wide computational method, network-based heterogeneity clustering (NHC), to detect physiological homogeneity in the midst of genetic heterogeneity. Simulation studies showed our method to be capable of systematically converging genes in biological proximity on the background biological interaction network, and capturing gene clusters harboring presumably deleterious variants, in an efficient and unbiased manner. We applied NHC to whole-exome sequencing data from a cohort of 122 individuals with herpes simplex encephalitis (HSE), including 13 individuals with previously published monogenic inborn errors of TLR3-dependent IFN-α/ß immunity. The top gene cluster identified by our approach successfully detected and prioritized all causal variants of five TLR3 pathway genes in the 13 previously reported individuals. This approach also suggested candidate variants of three reported genes and four candidate genes from the same pathway in another ten previously unstudied individuals. TLR3 responsiveness was impaired in dermal fibroblasts from four of the five individuals tested, suggesting that the variants detected were causal for HSE. NHC is, therefore, an effective and unbiased approach for unraveling genetic heterogeneity by detecting physiological homogeneity.

A comprehensive survey of the approaches for pathway analysis using multi-omics data integration.

Pathway analysis has been widely used to detect pathways and functions associated with complex disease phenotypes. The proliferation of this approach is due to better interpretability of its results and its higher statistical power compared with the gene-level statistics. A plethora of pathway analysis methods that utilize multi-omics setup, rather than just transcriptomics or proteomics, have recently been developed to discover novel pathways and biomarkers. Since multi-omics gives multiple views into the same problem, different approaches are employed in aggregating these views into a comprehensive biological context. As a result, a variety of novel hypotheses regarding disease ideation and treatment targets can be formulated. In this article, we review 32 such pathway analysis methods developed for multi-omics and multi-cohort data. We discuss their availability and implementation, assumptions, supported omics types and databases, pathway analysis techniques and integration strategies. A comprehensive assessment of each method's practicality, and a thorough discussion of the strengths and drawbacks of each technique will be provided. The main objective of this survey is to provide a thorough examination of existing methods to assist potential users and researchers in selecting suitable tools for their data and analysis purposes, while highlighting outstanding challenges in the field that remain to be addressed for future development.

Trends in the burden and determinants of HIV in the Asia-Pacific region (1990-2019): An age-period-cohort analysis of the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study.

Although the burden of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the Asia-Pacific region is increasingly severe, comprehensive evidence of the burden of HIV is scarce. We aimed to report the burden of HIV in people aged 15-79 years from 1990 to 2019 using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We analyzed rates of age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (ASDR), age-standardized mortality (ASMR), and age-standardized incidence (ASIR) in our age-period-cohort analysis by sociodemographic index (SDI). According to HIV reports in 2019 from 29 countries in the Asia-Pacific region, the low SDI group in Papua New Guinea had the highest ASDR, ASMR, and ASIR. From 1990 to 2019, the ASDR, ASIR, and ASMR of persons with acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS) increased in 21 (72%) of the 29 countries in the Asia-Pacific region. During the same period, the disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of AIDS patients in the low SDI group in the region grew the fastest, particularly in Nepal. The incidence of HIV among individuals aged 20-30 years in the low-middle SDI group was higher than that of those in the other age groups. In 2019, unsafe sex was the main cause of HIV-related ASDR in the region's 29 countries, followed by drug use. The severity of the burden of HIV/AIDS in the Asia-Pacific region is increasing, especially among low SDI groups. Specific public health policies should be formulated based on the socioeconomic development level of each country to alleviate the burden of HIV/AIDS.

Global, regional, and national burden of thalassemia during 1990-2019: A systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Thalassemia represents a significant public health challenge globally. However, the global burden of thalassemia and the disparities associated with it remain poorly understood. Our study aims to uncover the long-term spatial and temporal trends in thalassemia at global, regional, and national levels, analyze the impacts of age, time periods, and birth cohorts, and pinpoint the global disparities in thalassemia burden. METHODS: We extracted data on the thalassemia burden from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We employed a joinpoint regression model to assess temporal trends in thalassemia burden and an age-period-cohort model to evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort on thalassemia mortality. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the number of thalassemia incident cases, prevalent cases, mortality cases, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) decreased by 20.9%, 3.1%, 38.6%, and 43.1%, respectively. Age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY declined across regions with high, high-middle, middle, and low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI), yet remained the highest in regions with low SDI and low-middle SDI as well as in Southeast Asia, peaking among children under five years of age. The global prevalence rate was higher in males than in females. The global mortality rate showed a consistent decrease with increasing age. CONCLUSION: The global burden of thalassemia has significantly declined, yet notable disparities exist in terms of gender, age groups, periods, birth cohorts, SDI regions, and GBD regions. Systemic interventions that include early screening, genetic counseling, premarital health examinations, and prenatal diagnosis should be prioritized in regions with low, and low-middle SDI, particularly in Southeast Asia. Future population-based studies should focus specifically on thalassemia subtypes and transfusion requirements, and national registries should enhance data capture through newborn screening.

AIDS-defining events among people living with HIV who have been under continuous antiretroviral therapy for more than one year, a German cohort study 1999-2018.

PURPOSE: This study examined the characteristics, incidence and prognostic factors of the first AIDS-defining condition developed after more than one year of continuous antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people living with HIV (PLHIV). METHODS: We used data from two multicentre observational cohorts of PLHIV in Germany between 1999 and 2018. Our outcome was the first AIDS-defining event that occurred during follow-up after more than one year of continuous ART. Descriptive analyses at ART initiation, at the time of the AIDS event and of the most frequently observed types of AIDS-defining illnesses were performed. We calculated the incidence rate (IR) per 1000 person-years (PY) and used a bootstrap stepwise selection procedure to identify predictors of the outcome. RESULTS: A total of 12,466 PLHIV were included in the analyses. 378 developed the outcome, constituting an overall IR of 5.6 (95% CI 5.1-6.2) AIDS events per 1000 PY. The majority of PLHIV was virally suppressed at the time of the event. Oesophageal candidiasis and wasting syndrome were the most frequently diagnosed AIDS-defining illnesses. We found a low CD4 count at ART initiation, a previous AIDS-defining condition and transmission through intravenous drug use to be meaningful prognostic factors of the outcome. CONCLUSION: The overall rate of AIDS-defining events among PLHIV under long-term ART was low, highlighting the importance of continuous treatment. PLHIV who started ART with indicators of impaired immune functioning were more susceptible to disease progression, suggesting that the public health response should continue to focus on early and sustained treatment for all PLHIV.

Colorectal cancer and its attributable risk factors in East Asia, 1990-2030.

BACKGROUND: The disease burden of colorectal cancer in East Asia has been at a high level. However, the epidemiological characteristics of the disease burden in this region have not been systematically studied. METHOD: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 program. Joinpoint analysis was used to identify long-term trends in mortality of colorectal cancer. Independent effects of age, period, and cohort were detected by the age-period-cohort model. The Bayesian age-period-cohort model was performed to predict the burden of colorectal cancer across East Asia by 2030. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the average annual percentage change (AAPC) showed upward trends in mainland China (1.05 [95% confidence interval (CI)], 0.82, 1.28) as well as Taiwan Province of China (1.81 [95% CI], 1.51, 2.10) but downward in Japan (-0.60 [95% CI], -0.70, -0.49) (P < 0.05). Attributable risk factors for colorectal cancer in East Asia remained stable over 30 years, while the risk of metabolic factors is noteworthy in the future. In the next decade, the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of colorectal cancer in China was predicted to surpass that of Japan and South Korea in expectation. CONCLUSION: The mortality of colorectal cancer is escalating in developing countries, while it is gradually declining in high-income countries across East Asia. Nonetheless, the disease burden of colorectal cancer in high-income countries remains substantial level.

Global patterns of asthma burden related to environmental risk factors during 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis for global burden of disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Change in asthma burden attributed to specific environmental risk factor has not been evaluated. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to explore the age, period, and cohort effects on asthma burden attributable to smoking and occupational asthmagens in different socio-demographic index (SDI) regions and the region and sex disparities. METHODS: Risk factor-specific asthma deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates were extracted from Global Burden of Disease study 2019, estimated by standard Combined Cause of Death Model and DisMod-MR 2.1 modeling tool. Age-period-cohort analysis was conducted to decompose age, period, and cohort effects on asthma burden. RESULTS: Smoking- and occupational asthmagens-related asthma deaths and DALYs rates dropped by > 45% during 1990-2019. In 2019, Africa, South and Southeast Asia had higher asthma burden than other regions. Male had higher asthma burden than female. Among nearly all age groups, low-middle SDI region had the highest smoking-related asthma burden, and low SDI region had the highest occupational asthmagens-related asthma burden. Inverse "V" shaped trend was observed in the above regions with increasing age. For smoking-related asthma deaths and DALYs rates, the most significant improvement of period rate ratio (RR) occurred in high SDI region, decreased from 1.67 (1.61, 1.74) to 0.34 (0.33, 0.36) and 1.61 (1.57, 1.66) to 0.59 (0.57, 0.61), respectively, as well as the cohort effect on smoking-related asthma burden. For occupational asthmagens-related asthma deaths and DALYs rates, the most sharply decrease of period and cohort RR appeared in the high and high-middle SDI regions. Low SDI region showed least progress in period and cohort RR of smoking- and occupational asthmagens-linked asthma burden. CONCLUSION: Smoking- and occupational asthmagens-related asthma burden sharply decreases, but region and sex disparities exist. Policy makers from low SDI region should reinforce tobacco control and prioritize workplace protection.

One generation apart: Individual income and life expectancy in two Swedish cohorts born before and after the expansion of the welfare state.

AIMS: Social inequalities in mortality persist or even increase in high-income countries. Most evidence is based on a period approach to measuring mortality - that is, data from individuals born decades apart. A cohort approach, however, provides complementary insights using data from individuals who grow up and age under similar social and institutional arrangements. This study compares income inequalities in cohort life expectancy in two Swedish cohorts, one born before and one born after the expansion of the welfare state. METHODS: Data on individuals born in Sweden in 1922-1926 and 1951-1955 were obtained from total population registries. These data were linked to individual disposable income from 1970 and 1999 and mortality between 50 and 61 years of age in 1972-1987 and 2001-2016, respectively. We calculated cohort temporary life expectancies in the two cohorts by income and gender. RESULTS: Life expectancy, income, and income inequalities in life expectancy increased between the two cohorts, for both men and women. Women born in 1922-1926 had modest income differences in life expectancy, but pronounced differences emerged in the cohort born in 1951-1955. Men with low incomes born in 1951-1955 had roughly similar life expectancy as those with low incomes born in 1922-1926. CONCLUSIONS: Compared with a period approach to life expectancy trends, the cohort approach highlights the stagnation of mortality at the lowest income groups for men and the rapid emergence of a mortality gradient for women. Future research on health inequalities in welfare states should consider underlying factors both from a cohort and period perspective.

The transition of eldercare responsibility and traditional filial piety concepts and its urban-rural differences in China: an age-period-cohort analysis from 2006 to 2017.

BACKGROUND: With rapid urbanization, massive migration, and non-family-based eldercare involvement, Chinese concepts of eldercare responsibility and filial piety are shifting. We performed age-period-cohort (APC) analyses to assess the transition of old-age pension coverage, eldercare responsibility, and filial piety concepts and its urban-rural differences among Chinese adults using data from the China General Social Survey (2006-2017). METHODS: Old-age pension coverage (yes/no) and primary eldercare responsibility (government/offspring/self/sharing) were investigated in 2010, 2012, 2013, 2015, and 2017. Filial piety was evaluated using customized questionnaires in 2006 and 2017. The APC effects were estimated using mixed effects and generalized additive models. RESULTS: Among 66,182 eligible participants (mean age: 48.8 years, females: 51.7%) in the six waves, APC analyses indicated that old-age pension coverage increased with aging and over time. Across cohort groups, it grew as the cohort was younger in urban residents but decreased in rural residents. The concept of offspring-based (> 50%) and government/self/offspring-shared eldercare (> 30%) predominated. APC analyses revealed that the offspring-based concept declined with aging (OR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.79-0.84), whereas the government-based (OR = 1.37, 95% CI: 1.33-1.41) and self-based (OR = 1.55, 95% CI: 1.47-1.63) concepts increased with aging. People born around the 1940s have a comparatively higher possibility to perceive that the primary eldercare responsibility should be undertaken by the government and elder parents. In contrast, people born in the younger cohort were more likely to perceive that adult children are responsible for their parents' primary eldercare. Filial piety score slightly increased with aging (ß = 0.18, SD: 0.05) but decreased as the birth cohort was younger. In addition, rural participants were more likely to perceive offspring-based eldercare and maintain filial piety, and the related urban-rural difference was intensified by aging. CONCLUSIONS: The traditional concept that eldercare solely relies on offspring has changed to relying on multiple entities, including the government and self-reliance. Diluted filial piety in people born in the young cohort requires reinforcement. Moreover, future healthy aging policies need to focus more on urban-rural disparities to promote equity in social well-being.

The burden of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease among working-age people in the Western Pacific Region, 1990-2019: an age-period-cohort analysis of the Global Burden of Disease study.

BACKGROUND: The growing prevalence of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in younger populations, particularly those of working age (15-64 years), has become a public health concern. Being diagnosed at a younger age implies a greater likelihood of accruing disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) later in life due to potential progression to conditions such as cirrhosis or hepatocellular carcinoma. This study aims to analyze NAFLD prevalence trends over three decades globally, regionally, and nationally, with a focus on age, period, and birth cohort associations. METHODS: Global, regional, and country time trends in the prevalence of NAFLD among working-age people from 1990 to 2019: Age-period-cohort analysis based on Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 estimates and 95% uncertainty interval (UI) of NAFLD prevalence in the working age population was extracted from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors Study 2019. Age-period-cohort models were used to estimate the prevalence within each age group from 1990 to 2019 (local drift, % per year), fitted longitudinal age-specific rates adjusted for period bias (age effect), and period/cohort relative risk (period/cohort effect). RESULTS: The global age-standardized prevalence (ASPR) of NAFLD increased significantly from 1990 (14,477.6 per 100 000) to 2019 (19,837.6 per 100 000). In the Western Pacific, there were 42,903.8 NAFLD cases in 2019, 54.15% higher than in 1990. The ASPR also increased significantly in the region over the past three decades. At the national level, Palau had the highest ASPR while Brunei Darussalam had the lowest. Age-period-cohort analysis showed that in the Western Pacific, unlike globally, the risk of NAFLD declined after age 60-64 years. Relative to 1980-1989, incidence and DALY risks decreased but prevalence increased in subsequent birth cohorts. Future predictions indicate an upward trend in NAFLD burden, especially among women and medium (SDI) regions like China. CONCLUSION: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease imparts an immense health burden that continues to grow globally and in the Asia Pacific region. Our work highlights working age adults as an at-risk group and calls attention to socioeconomic gradients within Western Pacific countries. Upward future projections demonstrate that NAFLD prevention is an urgent priority.

Sleep duration in preschool age and later behavioral and cognitive outcomes: an individual participant data meta-analysis in five European cohorts.

Short sleep duration has been linked to adverse behavioral and cognitive outcomes in schoolchildren, but few studies examined this relation in preschoolers. We aimed to investigate the association between parent-reported sleep duration at 3.5 years and behavioral and cognitive outcomes at 5 years in European children. We used harmonized data from five cohorts of the European Union Child Cohort Network: ALSPAC, SWS (UK); EDEN, ELFE (France); INMA (Spain). Associations were estimated through DataSHIELD using adjusted generalized linear regression models fitted separately for each cohort and pooled with random-effects meta-analysis. Behavior was measured with the Strengths and Difficulties Questionnaire. Language and non-verbal intelligence were assessed by the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence or the McCarthy Scales of Children's Abilities. Behavioral and cognitive analyses included 11,920 and 2981 children, respectively (34.0%/13.4% of the original sample). In meta-analysis, longer mean sleep duration per day at 3.5 years was associated with lower mean internalizing and externalizing behavior percentile scores at 5 years (adjusted mean difference: - 1.27, 95% CI [- 2.22, - 0.32] / - 2.39, 95% CI [- 3.04, - 1.75]). Sleep duration and language or non-verbal intelligence showed trends of inverse associations, however, with imprecise estimates (adjusted mean difference: - 0.28, 95% CI [- 0.83, 0.27] / - 0.42, 95% CI [- 0.99, 0.15]). This individual participant data meta-analysis suggests that longer sleep duration in preschool age may be important for children's later behavior and highlight the need for larger samples for robust analyses of cognitive outcomes. Findings could be influenced by confounding or reverse causality and require replication.

Social Change and Race-Specific Homicide Trajectories: An Age-Period-Cohort Analysis.

Objectives: Social change and the aging process are racially bifurcated in the United States, where Black and White populations have long lived in divergent social worlds. This study examines the cohort patterns and life-course trajectories of Black and White homicide involvement over the past four decades. Data and Methods: The study uses data from the Supplemental Homicide Reports and Age-Period-Cohort-Interaction (APC-I) models to analyze race-specific trends of (alleged) homicide offending and victimization between 1976 and 2018 in the U.S. Results: Results reveal similar patterns in the age, period, and cohort effects on Black and White homicide involvement. However, while the shapes of these trajectories are comparable, the volatility in cohort effects on homicide is much more accentuated for Black cohorts than White cohorts. We also find racial differences for cohorts born after 1990, with a downward cohort pattern among the White group but a flat cohort trend among the Black group. Conclusions: Findings suggest that Black cohorts' homicide involvement is more susceptible than White cohorts' to the influence of external social changes (e.g., economic downturn, the crack epidemic). In addition, an increasing racial gap between Black and White populations is found among the recent birth cohorts. Possible mechanisms are discussed.

Incidence and mortality trends in gastric cancer in the United States, 1992-2019.

Our study aimed to estimate the epidemiological trends of gastric cancer in the United States from 1992 to 2019. This population-based study used the US Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results-12 database as a fundamental cohort to analyze gastric cancer incidence, incidence-based mortality (IBM), overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) probabilities from 1992 to 2019. The Global Burden of Disease study (1990-2018) was used as a likely validation cohort. Age-period-cohort analyses were performed to explore the underlying causes of trend changes. We found that the incidence rate of gastric cancer decreased from 1992 to 2019. IBM also decreased significantly from 1997 to 2019. The 3-year OS and CSS of gastric cancer increased from 22.3% to 28.7% and 25.7% to 33.5%, respectively. However, the proportion of distant gastric cancer cases had unexpectedly increased rapidly from 33.1% in 1992 to 44.7% in 2019. Age-period-cohort modeling found that the incidence and IBM rates remained stable in the groups aged below 50 years, while that in all age groups older than 50 years showed a significant downward trend. High incidence and mortality risks were observed in the younger birth cohorts (birth year after 1990). To conclude, we observed a decline in incidence and mortality rates of gastric cancer in the United States in the past decades. We determined that progression of primary and tertiary preventive measures is the main reason for the reduction in the disease burden of gastric cancer. However, secondary preventive measures for gastric cancer still need to be strengthened.

Trends and future projections of cervical cancer-related outcomes in Japan: What happens if the HPV vaccine program is not implemented?

Contrary to other developed countries, in Japan, recent years have seen increases in cervical cancer incidence and mortality among young people. However, the human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine program, a key measure for avoiding cervical cancer, has been virtually suspended. Temporal changes in cervical cancer profiles in this unique situation have not been fully investigated epidemiologically. Our study aimed to determine the current status and future trends of the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer and precancerous lesions in Japan. Mortality rates of cervical cancer during 1975 to 2016 and incidence rates of cervical cancer and cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) 3 during 1975 to 2013 were examined using vital statistics and population-based cancer registry data in Japan. Bayesian age-period-cohort analyses were performed to analyze temporal changes of the three cervical cancer-related outcomes. We also calculated projections to 2028 for the three outcomes, assuming that HPV vaccination coverage and screening rates in Japan would be maintained at the current level after the resumption of the national vaccination program. The risk of occurrence of the three outcomes showed similar changes by birth cohort, peaking in the mid-1890s to 1900s birth cohorts, declining sharply in the 1940s birth cohort, and persistently increasing in the 1950s and later birth cohorts. Projections to 2028 show increases in cervical cancer incidence and mortality in the 30 to 69 age group, with a particular increase in CIN3 incidence in the 25 to 49 age group, if HPV vaccine programs and screening are not effectively implemented. These findings revealed an increasing cervical disease burden among reproductive age females in Japan.

Preventable burden of head and neck cancer attributable to tobacco and alcohol between 1990 and 2039 in China.

Tobacco use and heavy alcohol consumption are risk factors for head and neck cancer (HNC), including oral, pharynx, and larynx cancer. No study has investigated the preventable burden of HNC attributable to tobacco and alcohol in China. We extracted data from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease. The preventable burden attributable to tobacco and alcohol was estimated by subtracting the overlapping fraction derived from a literature search. Descriptive analyses were performed initially, followed by joinpoint regression and age-period-cohort (APC) analysis. The future burden was forecasted using a Bayesian APC model. The crude burden increased significantly, while the age-standardized rates showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2019 in China. Both all-age and age-standardized population attributable fractions rose significantly, potentially due to the poor prognosis of tobacco- and alcohol-associated HNC. The absolute burden would continue to climb in the next 20 years from 2019, largely due to population aging. For site-specific burden, compared with total, pharynx, and larynx cancer burden, the substantial upward trend of oral cancer burden indicated a strong interaction with risk factors such as genetic susceptibility, betel nut chewing, oral microbiota, and human papillomavirus. The burden of oral cancer attributable to tobacco and alcohol is a major concern and is anticipated to become more severe than cancer in other anatomic sites. Altogether, our study provides useful information to rethink the current restrictions on tobacco and alcohol, lean healthcare resources, and develop effective HNC prevention and control strategies.

Synthesized Age-Period-Cohort Prediction Method: Application to Lung Cancer Mortality in Taiwan.

Age-period-cohort analysis involves 3 temporal factors: age (the length of time from birth to diagnosis), period (the calendar time of diagnosis), and cohort (the calendar time of birth). The application of age-period-cohort analysis in disease forecasting can help researchers and health authorities anticipate future disease burden. In this study, a synthesized age-period-cohort prediction method was proposed based on 4 assumptions: 1) no single model can dominate as the most accurate prediction model in all forecasting scenarios; 2) historical trends will not continue indefinitely; 3) a model with the most accurate forecast for the training data will also be appropriate for forecasting future data; and 4) a model dominated by the stochastic temporal change will be the best-selected model with the robust forecasting. An ensemble of age-period-cohort prediction models was constructed, and Monte Carlo cross-validation was performed to evaluate forecasting accuracy of these models. Data on lung cancer mortality from 1996 to 2015 in Taiwan were used and projected to the year 2035 to illustrate the method. The actual lung cancer mortality rates from 2016 to 2020 were then used to verify the forecasting accuracy.