Comprehensive risk assessment of typhoon disasters in China's coastal areas based on multi-source geographic big data.

Typhoons can bring substantial casualties and economic ramifications, and effective prevention strategies necessitate a comprehensive risk assessment. Nevertheless, existing studies on its comprehensive risk assessment are characterized by coarse spatial scales, limited incorporation of geographic big data, and rarely considering disaster mitigation capacity. To address these problems, this study combined multi-source geographic big data to develop the Comprehensive Risk Assessment Model (CRAM). The model integrated 17 indicators from 4 categories of factors, including exposure, vulnerability, hazard, and mitigation capacity. A subjective-objective combination weighting method was introduced to generate the indicator weights, and comprehensive risk index of typhoon disasters was calculated for 987 counties along China's coastal regions. Results revealed a pronounced spatial heterogeneity of the comprehensive typhoon risk, which exhibited an overall decreasing trend from the southeast coastal areas toward the northwest inland territories. 61.7 % of the counties exhibited a medium-to-high level of comprehensive risk, and counties with very-high risks are predominantly concentrated in the Shandong Peninsula, Yangtze River Delta, Hokkien Golden Triangle, Greater Bay Area, Leizhou Peninsula, and Hainan Province, mainly due to high exposure and hazard factors. The correlation coefficient between the risk assessment results and typhoon-induced direct economic losses reached 0.702, indicating the effectiveness and reliability of the CRAM. Meanwhile, indicators from intrinsic attributes of typhoons and geographic big data had pronounced importance, and regional mitigation capacity should be improved. Our proposed method can help to scientifically understand spatial patterns of comprehensive risk and mitigate the effects of typhoon disasters in China's coastal regions.

The comprehensive risk assessment of the Tangjiashan landslide dam incident, China.

Risk assessment for landslide dams is very important to avoid unanticipated landslide failure and calamity. Recognition of the risk of landslide dams associated with changing influencing factors is to identify the risk grade and provide early warning of oncoming failure, while quantitative risk analysis of landslide dams due to many influencing factors changing in spatiotemporal domain is currently lacking. We applied the model to analyze the risk level of the Tangjiashan landslide dam caused by the Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake. The risk evaluation, obtained according to the analysis of the influencing factors located in the risk assessment grade criteria, clearly shows that the risk reaches a higher level at that moment. Our analysis shows that the risk level of landslide dams can be quantitatively analyzed with our assessment method. Our results suggest that the risk assessment system can be an effective measure to dynamically predict the risk level and provide a sufficient early warning of the oncoming hazard by analyzing the variables of influencing factors at different times.

Health risk of fluorine in soil from a phosphorus industrial area based on the in-vitro oral, inhalation, and dermal bioaccessibility.

Health risk of F in soil is of special concern due to the continuously elevated concentration of F in soil. However, there is still a dearth of risk assessments of F in soil based on in-vitro bioaccessibility posed by multiple exposure routes. Herein, the oral, inhalation, and dermal bioaccessibility of F in soil was firstly obtained by adapting and combining in-vitro methods, which then was introduced to remedy an information gap of a comprehensive risk of F in soil posed by a multi-exposure pathway. Combined in-vitro tests indicate the oral, inhalation, and dermal bioaccessibility of F was 13.15 ± 2.63%, 16.55 ± 2.63%, and 1.27 ± 0.73%, respectively. Plasma yielded a detoxic potential for the absorbed F after digesting in small intestine, while effects of enzymes, sweat, and food on the oral bioaccessibility of F were insignificant. Different with metals, the major dissolving phase of F was the interstitial fluid in the deep lung instead of in the alveolar macrophages intracellular environment. A potentially major release of F in the exocrine sweat was noted than in the apocrine sweat. Risk assessments based on the daily exposure incorporated with the in-vitro bioaccessibility suggested that compared with inhalation and dermal contact, oral ingestion was the main exposure route of F in soil to human. Present findings provide insights into the bioaccessibility and health risk of F in soil by multiple exposure routes, which are crucial for the risk control of F contamination in soil.

Measuring the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on university resumption and suggestions for countermeasures.

Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, universities around the world had to find a balance between the need to resume classes and prevent the spread of the virus by ensuring the health of students. The purpose of our study was to effectively assess the overall risk of universities reopening during the COVID-19 epidemic. Design and methods: Using the pressure-state-response model, we designed a risk evaluation method from a disaster management perspective. First, we performed a literature review to find the main factors affecting the virus spread. Second, we used the pressure-state-response to represent how the considered hazards acts and interacts before grouping them as disaster and vulnerability factors. Third, we assigned to all factors a risk function ranging from 1 to 4. Fourth, we modeled the risk indexes of disaster and of system vulnerability through simple and appropriate weights and combined them in an overall risk for the university resumption. Finally, we showed how the method works by evaluating the reopening of the Hebei Province University in 2022 and highlighted the resulting advice for reducing related risks. Results: Our model included 20 risk factors, six representing exogenous hazards (disaster factors) that university can only monitor and 14 related to system vulnerability that can also control. Disaster factors included epidemic risk level of students' residence and the school's location, means of transportation back to school, size of the university population, the number of migrants on and off campus and express carrier infection. Vulnerability factors included student behaviors, routine campus activities and all the other actions the university can take to control the virus spread. The university of Baoding city (Hebei Province) showed a disaster risk of 1.880 and a vulnerability of 1.666 which combined provided a low risk of school resumption. Conclusion: Our study judged the risks involved in resuming school and put forward specific countermeasures for reducing the risk levels. This not only protects public health security but also has some practical implications for improving the evaluation and rational decision-making abilities of all parties.

A Comprehensive Risk Assessment Model for Ovarian Cancer Patients with Phospho-STAT3 and IL-31 as Immune Infiltration Relevant Genes.

INTRODUCTION: Ovarian carcinoma is a malignant tumor with a high mortality rate and a lack of effective treatment options for patients at advanced stages. For improving outcomes and helping patients with poor prognosis, choose a suitable therapy and an excellent risk assessment model and new treatment options are needed. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Ovarian cancer gene expression profile of GSE32062 was downloaded from the NCBI GEO database for screening differentially expressed genes (DEGs) between well and poor prognosis groups using limma package in R (version 3.4.1). Prognosis-related genes and clinical prognostic factors were obtained from univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, and a comprehensive risk assessment model was constructed using a Pathway Dysregulation Score (PDS) matrix, Cox-Proportional Hazards (Cox-PH) regression, as well as L1-least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (L1-LASSO) penalization. Then, significant DEGs were converted to pathways and optimal prognosis-related pathways were screened. Finally, risk prediction models based on pathways, genes involved in pathways, and comprehensive clinical risk factors with pathways were built. Their prognostic functions were assessed in verification sets. Besides, genes involved in immune-pathways were checked for immune infiltration using immunohistochemistry. RESULTS: A superior risk assessment model involving 9 optimal combinations of pathways and one clinical factor was constructed. The pathway-based model was found to be superior to the gene-based model. Phospho-STAT3 (from JAK-STAT signaling pathway) and IL-31 (from DEGs) were found to be related to immune infiltration. CONCLUSION: We have generated a comprehensive risk assessment model consisting of a clinical risk factor and pathways that showed a possible bright foreground. The set of significant pathways might play as a better prognosis model which is more accurate and applicable than the DEG set. Besides, p-STAT3 and IL-31 showing correlation to immune infiltration of ovarian cancer tissues may be potential therapeutic targets for treating ovarian cancers.

Comprehensive ecological risk assessment for semi-arid basin based on conceptual model of risk response and improved TOPSIS model-a case study of Wei River Basin, China.

Comprehensive ecological risk assessment is of great significance for the restoration of watershed ecosystem health, and the appropriate and effective assessment method is the premise of ecological risk assessment. In this study, the conceptual model of risk response was developed by identification of ecological risk sources, stressors, endpoints and the corresponding response mechanism as well as the improved TOPSIS model based on Canberra distance and the combinatorial weighting method based on AHP and Critic were combined for the assessment. According to the three aspects of agriculture, industrial and urbanization, the occurrence mechanism of comprehensive ecological risk of rivers in semi-arid areas was analyzed. Furthermore, twenty-four indexes were selected to establish the index system and the Wei River Basin was taken as an example to verify the model. The results of comprehensive ecological risk assessment and stressor analysis showed that the deterioration of water quality (enrichment of heavy metals) and the decrease of benthos integrity were the two main risk factors for the increase of comprehensive ecological risk in Wei River Basin. And the regulation of ecological risk for the Wei River Basin is improvement of water quality and biotic integrity.

Spatial Distribution, Chemical Fraction and Fuzzy Comprehensive Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Surface Sediments from the Honghu Lake, China.

Spatial concentrations and chemical fractions of heavy metals (Cr, Cu, Pb, Zn and Cd) in 16 sampling sites from the Honghu Lake were investigated using an atomic absorption spectrophotometer and optimized BCR (the European Community Bureau of Reference) three-stage extraction procedure. Compared with the corresponding probable effect levels (PELs), adverse biological effects of the studied five sediment metals decreased in the sequence of Cr > Cu > Zn > Pb > Cd. Geo-accumulation index (Igeo) values for Cr, Cu, Pb and Zn in each sampling site were at un-contamination level, while the values for Cd varied from un-contamination level to moderate contamination level. Spatially, the enrichment degree of Cd in lower part of the South Lake, the west part of the North Lake and the outlet were higher than the other parts of Honghu Lake. For metal chemical fractions, the proportions of the acid-extractable fraction of five metal contents were in the descending order: Cd, Cu, Zn, Pb and Cr. Cd had the highest bioaccessibility. Being the above indexes focused always on heavy metals' total content or chemical fraction in deterministic assessment system, which may confuse decision makers, the fuzzy comprehensive risk assessment method was established based on PEI (Potential ecological risk index), RAC (Risk assessment code) and fuzzy theory. Average comprehensive risks of heavy metals in sediments revealed the following orders: Cd (considerable risk) > Cu (moderate risk) > Zn (low risk) > Pb > Cr. Thus, Cd and Cu were determined as the pollutants of most concern. The central part of South Honghu Lake (S4, S5, S6, S9, S12 and S14), east part of the North Honghu Lake (S1) and outlet of outlet of the Honghu Lake (S10) were recommended as the priority control areas. Specifically, it is necessary to pay more attention to S1, S4, S5, S6, S9 and S16 when decision making for their calculated membership values (probabilities) of adjacent risk levels quite close.