The effects of fiscal policy on households during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from Thailand and Vietnam.

The economic crisis created by the COVID-19 pandemic induced many governments to provide financial assistance to households. Using representative consumer surveys conducted during the pandemic in 2020, we examine the effects of this fiscal policy instrument on households in two emerging economies, Thailand and Vietnam. Our paper contributes to the literature by studying how consumer sentiment and durable spending relate to receiving government financial support and the underlying transmission channels for these responses. We find that financial support to households is related to more positive consumer sentiment and increases in actual and planned durable spending, while also being correlated with a more optimistic macroeconomic outlook, higher trust in the government, and higher personal well-being.

Demographic Transition, Human Capital and Economic Growth in China.

We assess the impact of demographic changes on human capital accumulation and aggregate output using an overlapping generations model with endogenous savings and human capital investment decisions. We focus on China as it has experienced rapid changes in demographics as well as human capital levels between 1970 and 2010. Additionally, further variations in demographics are expected due to the recently introduced two-child policy. Model simulations indicate that education shares and income per capita will be lower with a fertility rebound as compared to status quo fertility. We find education policy to be effective in mitigating these adverse outcomes associated with higher fertility. While long-run declines in output per capita can be offset by a 4.7% increase in the government education budget, it requires a 28% increase to achieve the same outcome in the short-run.

Estimating the public economic consequences of cardiovascular disease-attributable events and evolocumab treatment in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Following cardiovascular events, individuals often make choices about their working life that pose fiscal costs for the government in relation to lost tax revenue, increasing disability or early retirement. We evaluate the fiscal consequences for the Australian Government in atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) patients with low-density lipoprotein >3.3 mmol/L after the maximum tolerated doses of a statin or when contraindicated or intolerant to statins, compared to evolocumab added to the standard of care. METHODS: The natural history of patients with ASCVD was evaluated using a multi-state Markov cohort model comparing evolocumab with current treatment practices. Published rates for the likelihood of being disabled and retiring prematurely in patients experiencing stroke or myocardial infarction were modeled. Reported government costs for annual disability payments and lost tax revenues from the nationally representative STINMOD + data set were used to estimate the fiscal consequences associated with attributable ASCVD events. RESULTS: The incremental tax gain associated with evolocumab in someone aged 40, 50 or 60 results in additional tax revenues of Aus$15,716, Aus$9,810 and Aus$4,217, respectively. Cost-savings attributed to disability payments of Aus$3,483, Aus$2,495 and Aus$4,619 were observed in those aged 40, 50 and 60, respectively. The ratio of evolocumab to fiscal benefits indicates that up to 52% of evolocumab costs are offset by future lifetime taxes paid and reduced social benefits payments in those treated aged 40. The ratio of fiscal benefits to costs in treating those aged 50 and 60 were 37% and 31%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Applying a cross-sectorial government perspective budget impact assessment improves our understanding of fiscal changes attributed to ASCVD based on changes in premature mortality and work activity and how this influences lifetime tax contributions and public benefits. The main cost driver observed was associated with reduced ASCVD events that enabled people to remain productive and paying taxes.

A novel E6-like gene, E6-2, affects fruit ripening in tomato.

Tomato fruit ripening is a complicated and well-coordinated process with numerous metabolic changes resulted from endogenous hormone and genetic regulators. Although the regulation of MADS-box transcription factor (MADS-RIN) controlling fruit ripening has been widely reported, its mechanisms underlying need to be further improved. Here, we characterized a novel tomato E6-like gene, E6-2, whose transcripts showed a high accumulation in fruit ripening stages (Breaker, Breaker+4 and Breaker+7), but a low level was observed in Never ripe (Nr) and ripening inhibitor (rin) mutants. MADS-RIN directly activates the expression of E6-2 in vivo. Additionally, a remarkable reduction of E6-2 was observed in wild-type (WT) tomato fruits at the MG stage treated with 1-MCP. RNAi-mediated silencing of E6-2 resulted in delayed fruit ripening, reduced accumulation of the total carotenoid and lycopene, reduced content of ethylene production, and increased contents of the total pectin, cellulose, starch and soluble sugar. Moreover, the expression of carotenoid biosynthesis genes (PSY1, PDS and ZDS), ripening-related genes (CNR, PG and ERF4), ethylene biosynthesis genes (ACS2, ACO1 and ACO3), ethylene-responsive genes (E4 and E8) and cell wall metabolism genes (TBG4, PL, EXP1 and XTH5) were inhibited in E6-2 -RNAi lines. These results indicate that E6-2 plays an important role in regulating tomato fruit ripening targeted by RIN.

The fiscal consequences of public health investments in disease-modifying therapies for the treatment of multiple sclerosis in Sweden.

Background and aims: The economic consequences of multiple sclerosis (MS) are broader than those observed within the health system. The progressive nature suggests that people will not be able to live a normal productive life and will gradually require public benefits to maintain living standards. This study investigates the public economic impact of MS and how investments in disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) influence the lifetime costs to government attributed to changes in lifetime tax revenue and disability benefits based on improved health status linked to delayed disease progression.Methods: Disease progression rates from previous MS Markov cohort models were applied to interferon beta-1a, peginterferon beta-1a, dimethyl fumarate, and natalizumab using a public economic framework. The established relationship between expanded disability status scale and work-force participation, annual earnings, and disability rates for each DMT were applied. Subsequently, we assessed the effect of DMTs on discounted governmental costs consisting of health service costs, social insurance and disability costs, and changes in lifetime tax revenues.Results: Fiscal benefits attributed to informal care and community services savings for interferon beta-1a, peginterferon beta-1a, dimethyl fumarate, and natalizumab were SEK340,387, SEK486,837, SEK257,330, and SEK958,852 compared to placebo, respectively. Tax revenue gains linked to changes in lifetime productivity for interferon beta-1a, peginterferon beta-1a, dimethyl fumarate, and natalizumab were estimated to be SEK27,474, SEK39,659, SEK21,661, and SEK75,809, with combined fiscal benefits of cost savings and tax revenue increases of SEK410,039, SEK596,592, SEK326,939, and SEK1,208,023, respectively.Conclusion: The analysis described here illustrates the broader public economic benefits for government attributed to changes in disease status. The lifetime social insurance transfer costs were highest in non-treated patients, and lower social insurance costs were demonstrated with DMTs. These findings suggest that focusing cost-effectiveness analysis only on health costs will likely underestimate the value of DMTs.

Macroeconomic Effects of Medicare.

This paper develops an overlapping generations model to study the macroeconomic effects of an un-expected elimination of Medicare. We find that a large share of the elderly respond by substituting Medicaid for Medicare. Consequently, the government saves only 46 cents for every dollar cut in Medicare spending. We argue that a comparison of steady states is insufficient to evaluate the welfare effects of the reform. In particular, we find lower ex-ante welfare gains from eliminating Medicare when we account for the costs of transition. Lastly, we find that a majority of the current population benefits from the reform but that aggregate welfare, measured as the dollar value of the sum of wealth equivalent variations, is higher with Medicare.