Predicting organismal response to marine heatwaves using dynamic thermal tolerance landscape models.

Marine heatwaves (MHWs) can cause thermal stress in marine organisms, experienced as extreme 'pulses' against the gradual trend of anthropogenic warming. When thermal stress exceeds organismal capacity to maintain homeostasis, organism survival becomes time-limited and can result in mass mortality events. Current methods of detecting and categorizing MHWs rely on statistical analysis of historic climatology and do not consider biological effects as a basis of MHW severity. The re-emergence of ectotherm thermal tolerance landscape models provides a physiological framework for assessing the lethal effects of MHWs by accounting for both the magnitude and duration of extreme heat events. Here, we used a simulation approach to understand the effects of a suite of MHW profiles on organism survival probability across (1) three thermal tolerance adaptive strategies, (2) interannual temperature variation and (3) seasonal timing of MHWs. We identified survival isoclines across MHW magnitude and duration where acute (short duration-high magnitude) and chronic (long duration-low magnitude) events had equivalent lethal effects on marine organisms. While most research attention has focused on chronic MHW events, we show similar lethal effects can be experienced by more common but neglected acute marine heat spikes. Critically, a statistical definition of MHWs does not accurately categorize biological mortality. By letting organism responses define the extremeness of a MHW event, we can build a mechanistic understanding of MHW effects from a physiological basis. Organism responses can then be transferred across scales of ecological organization and better predict marine ecosystem shifts to MHWs.

Mapping the needs of healthcare workers caring for COVID-19 patients using the socio-ecological framework: a rapid scoping review.

Undoubtedly, the mental health of healthcare workers (HCWs) was negatively affected because of caring for patients during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, literature is limited on mapping the challenges and needs of HCWs during COVID-19 pandemic. A widely used framework in public health for mapping evidence includes the socio-ecological models, suggesting behavior can be influenced by individual, interpersonal, organizational, and community factors. The aim of this rapid scoping review was to use the socio-ecological model to map and compile lessons learnt from the literature regarding primarily the challenges and needs and secondly available psychological interventions for HCWs caring for COVID-19 patients. PubMed, CINAHL and Scopus databases were searched, with 21 studies finally included examining challenges and needs of HCWs and 18 studies presenting psychological interventions. Organizational-level challenges and needs such as inadequate staff preparation and supplies of protective equipment, flexible work policies and paid rest periods were the most reported. Individual-level challenges and needs included COVID-19-related fears and reduced mental health, whereas interpersonal-related needs included support provision. Community-level challenges included societal stigma. Certain psychological interventions were found to be promising for HCWs, but these were utilized to address only individual-level challenges and needs. Given that well-being entails an interaction of factors, multi-level interventions addressing multiple socio-ecological levels (interpersonal, organizational, community) and that place HCWs in their social context should be administrated to increase and maintain intervention' effects long-term and possibly aid in better coping with future pandemics.

Rare crested rat subfossils unveil Afro-Eurasian ecological corridors synchronous with early human dispersals.

Biotic interactions between Africa and Eurasia across the Levant have invoked particular attention among scientists aiming to unravel early human dispersals. However, it remains unclear whether behavioral capacities enabled early modern humans to surpass the Saharo-Arabian deserts or if climatic changes triggered punctuated dispersals out of Africa. Here, we report an unusual subfossil assemblage discovered in a Judean Desert's cliff cave near the Dead Sea and dated to between ∼42,000 and at least 103,000 y ago. Paleogenomic and morphological comparisons indicate that the specimens belong to an extinct subspecies of the eastern African crested rat, Lophiomys imhausi maremortum subspecies nova, which diverged from the modern eastern African populations in the late Middle Pleistocene ∼226,000 to 165,000 y ago. The reported paleomitogenome is the oldest so far in the Levant, opening the door for future paleoDNA analyses in the region. Species distribution modeling points to the presence of continuous habitat corridors connecting eastern Africa with the Levant during the Last Interglacial ∼129,000 to 116,000 y ago, providing further evidence of the northern ingression of African biomes into Eurasia and reinforcing previous suggestions of the critical role of climate change in Late Pleistocene intercontinental biogeography. Furthermore, our study complements other paleoenvironmental proxies with local-instead of interregional-paleoenvironmental data, opening an unprecedented window into the Dead Sea rift paleolandscape.

The game of models: Dietary reconstruction in human evolution.

Despite substantial additions to the paleontological record and unanticipated improvements in analytical techniques since the Journal of Human Evolution was first published, consensus on the diet of early hominin species remains elusive. For instance, the notable advances in the analyses of hominin dental microwear and stable isotopes have provided a plethora of data that have in some instances clouded what was once ostensibly a clear picture of dietary differentiation between and within hominin taxa. In the present study, we explore the reasons why the retrodiction of diet in human evolution has proven vexing over the last half century from the perspective of both ecological and functional-mechanical models. Such models continue to be indispensable for paleobiological reconstructions, but they often contain rigid or unstated assumptions about how primary paleontological data, such as fossils and their geological and taphonomic contexts, allow unambiguous insight into the evolutionary processes that produced them. In theoretical discussions of paleobiology, it has long been recognized that a mapping function of morphology to adaptation is not one-to-one, in the sense that a particular trait cannot necessarily be attributed to a specific selective pressure and/or behavior. This article explores how the intrinsic variability within biological systems has often been underappreciated in paleoanthropological research. For instance, to claim that derived anatomical traits represent adaptations related to stereotypical behaviors largely ignores the importance of biological roles (i.e., how anatomical traits function in the environment), a concept that depends on behavioral flexibility for its potency. Similarly, in the paleoecological context, the underrepresentation of variability within the 'edible landscapes' our hominin ancestors occupied has inhibited an adequate appreciation of early hominin dietary flexibility. Incorporating the reality of variation at organismal and ecological scales makes the practice of paleobiological reconstruction more challenging, but in return, allows for a better appreciation of the evolutionary possibilities that were open to early hominins.

The moderating impact of neighborhood walkability on mHealth interventions to increase moderate to vigorous physical activity for insufficiently active adults in a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Ecological models suggest that interventions targeting specific behaviors are most effective when supported by the environment. This study prospectively examined the interactions between neighborhood walkability and an mHealth intervention in a large-scale, adequately powered trial to increase moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA). METHODS: Healthy, insufficiently active adults (N = 512) were recruited purposefully from census block groups ranked on walkability (high/low) and socioeconomic status (SES, high/low). Participants were block-randomized in groups of four to WalkIT Arizona, a 12-month, 2 × 2 factorial trial evaluating adaptive versus static goal setting and immediate versus delayed financial reinforcement delivered via text messages. Participants wore ActiGraph GT9X accelerometers daily for one year. After recruitment, a walkability index was calculated uniquely for every participant using a 500-m street network buffer. Generalized linear mixed-effects hurdle models tested for interactions between walkability, intervention components, and phase (baseline vs. intervention) on: (1) likelihood of any (versus no) MVPA and (2) daily MVPA minutes, after adjusting for accelerometer wear time, neighborhood SES, and calendar month. Neighborhood walkability was probed at 5th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 95th percentiles to explore the full range of effects. RESULTS: Adaptive goal setting was more effective in increasing the likelihood of any MVPA and daily MVPA minutes, especially in lower walkable neighborhoods, while the magnitude of intervention effect declined as walkability increased. Immediate reinforcement showed a greater increase in any and daily MVPA compared to delayed reinforcement, especially relatively greater in higher walkable neighborhoods. CONCLUSIONS: Results partially supported the synergy hypotheses between neighborhood walkability and PA interventions and suggest the potential of tailoring interventions to individuals' neighborhood characteristics. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Preregistered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT02717663).

Circulating immune cell phenotype dynamics reflect the strength of tumor-immune cell interactions in patients during immunotherapy.

The extent to which immune cell phenotypes in the peripheral blood reflect within-tumor immune activity prior to and early in cancer therapy is unclear. To address this question, we studied the population dynamics of tumor and immune cells, and immune phenotypic changes, using clinical tumor and immune cell measurements and single-cell genomic analyses. These samples were serially obtained from a cohort of advanced gastrointestinal cancer patients enrolled in a trial with chemotherapy and immunotherapy. Using an ecological population model, fitted to clinical tumor burden and immune cell abundance data from each patient, we find evidence of a strong tumor-circulating immune cell interaction in responder patients but not in those patients that progress on treatment. Upon initiation of therapy, immune cell abundance increased rapidly in responsive patients, and once the peak level is reached tumor burden decreases, similar to models of predator-prey interactions; these dynamic patterns were absent in nonresponder patients. To interrogate phenotype dynamics of circulating immune cells, we performed single-cell RNA sequencing at serial time points during treatment. These data show that peripheral immune cell phenotypes were linked to the increased strength of patients' tumor-immune cell interaction, including increased cytotoxic differentiation and strong activation of interferon signaling in peripheral T cells in responder patients. Joint modeling of clinical and genomic data highlights the interactions between tumor and immune cell populations and reveals how variation in patient responsiveness can be explained by differences in peripheral immune cell signaling and differentiation soon after the initiation of immunotherapy.

Perceptions of drug users and community gate keepers on the causes and consequences of synthetic drug use in Kunming: A three-level social-ecological approach.

Synthetic drug use (SDU) is on the rise in China. Utilizing a grounded three-level social-ecological theoretical model, we aim to better understand how users, medical professionals, and other community gatekeepers perceive the causes and consequences of synthetic drug use in Kunming, China. Past work typically relies on drug users confined to rehabilitation facilities. Utilizing qualitative methods, our work integrates how various community actors perceive problems around synthetic drug use. Thirty face-to-face interviews were conducted in Kunming that were audio-recorded and transcribed. We identify emergent personal, interpersonal and societal level themes shaping SDU which provided our grounded theoretical model. Regardless of their social position, informants identified curiosity, peer networks that facilitated exposure, and the communality of sharing the drug experience as reasons to try synthetic drugs. Drug users reported negative consequences of SDU including the inability to sleep, a fear that others might discover one was using, and the difficulty of quitting. Medical professionals and others in the community were more likely to identify potential harms of SDU. Still, these community members felt synthetic drugs were less problematic than traditional drugs and reported less prejudice and stigma about these new drugs. Overall, medical professionals felt ill-prepared to deal with this new epidemic.

Influences on intentions for obstetric practice among family physicians and residents in Canada: an explorative qualitative inquiry.

BACKGROUND: Many family medicine residency graduates indicate a desire to provide obstetric care, but a low proportion of family physicians (FPs) provide obstetric care within their practice. This suggests personal preference alone may not account for the low proportion of FPs who ultimately provide full obstetric care. If decisionmakers plan to augment the number of FPs providing obstetric care, barriers to the provision of such care must first be identified. Within this paper, we explore the perspectives of both family practice residents and early-career FPs on the factors that shaped their decision to provide obstetric care. METHODS: In this qualitative study, we analyzed a subset of interview data from three Canadian provinces: British Columbia, Ontario, and Nova Scotia (n = 18 family practice residents; n = 39 early-career FPs). We used thematic analysis to analyze data relevant to obstetric care practice, applying the socio-ecological model and comparing themes across participant types, gender, and province. RESULTS: Participants described influences affecting their decision about providing obstetric care. Key influencing factors aligned with the levels of the socio-ecological model of public policy (i.e., liability), community (i.e., community needs), organizational (e.g., obstetric care trade-offs, working in teams, sufficient exposure in training), interpersonal practice preferences (i.e., impact on family life, negative interactions with other healthcare professionals), and individual factors (i.e., defining comprehensive care as "everything but obstetrics"). Many participants were interested in providing obstetric care within their practice but did not provide such care. Participants' decision-making around providing or not providing obstetric care included considerations of personal preferences and outside influences. CONCLUSIONS: Individual-level factors alone do not account for the decrease in the type and amount of obstetric care offered by FPs. Instead, FPs' choice to provide or not provide obstetric care is influenced by factors at higher levels of the socio-ecological model. Policymakers who want to encourage obstetric practice by FPs should implement interventions at the public policy, community, organizational, interpersonal, and individual levels.

Strong stochastic persistence of some Lévy-driven Lotka-Volterra systems.

We study a class of Lotka-Volterra stochastic differential equations with continuous and pure-jump noise components, and derive conditions that guarantee the strong stochastic persistence (SSP) of the populations engaged in the ecological dynamics. More specifically, we prove that, under certain technical assumptions on the jump sizes and rates, there is convergence of the laws of the stochastic process to a unique stationary distribution supported far away from extinction. We show how the techniques and conditions used in proving SSP for general Kolmogorov systems driven solely by Brownian motion must be adapted and tailored in order to account for the jumps of the driving noise. We provide examples of applications to the case where the underlying food-web is: (a) a 1-predator, 2-prey food-web, and (b) a multi-layer food-chain.

The Ecology of Engagement: Fostering cooperative efforts in health with patients and communities.

CONTEXT: Patients and community members are engaged in nearly every aspect of health systems. However, the engagement literature remains siloed and fragmented, which makes it difficult to connect engagement efforts with broader goals of health, equity and sustainability. Integrated and inclusive models of engagement are needed to support further transformative efforts. METHODS: This article describes the Ecology of Engagement, an integrated model of engagement. The model posits that: (1) Health ecosystems include all members of society engaged in health; (2) Engagement is the 'together' piece of health and healthcare (e.g., caring for each other, preventing, researching, teaching and building policies together); (3) Health ecosystems and engagement are interdependent from each other, both influencing health, equity, resilience and sustainability. CONCLUSION: The Ecology of Engagement offers a common sketch to foster dialogue on engagement across health ecosystems. The model can drive cooperative efforts with patients and communities on health, equity, resilience and sustainability. PATIENTS AND PUBLIC CONTRIBUTION: Three of the authors have lived experiences as patients. One has a socially disclosed identity as a patient partner leader with extensive experience in engagement (individual care, education, research, management and policy). Two authors have significant experience as patients and informal caregivers, which were mobilized in descriptive illustrations. A fourth author has experience as an engaged citizen in health policy debates. All authors have professional lived experience in health (manager, researcher, health professional, consultant and educator). Six patient and caregiver partners with lived experience of engagement (other than the authors) contributed important revisions and intellectual content.

Memory Fidelity Reveals Qualitative Changes in Interactions Between Items in Visual Working Memory.

Memory for objects in a display sometimes reveals attraction-the objects are remembered as more similar to one another than they actually were-and sometimes reveals repulsion-the objects are remembered as more different from one another. The conditions that lead to these opposing memory biases are poorly understood; there is no theoretical framework that explains these contrasting dynamics. In three experiments (each N = 30 adults), we demonstrate that memory fidelity provides a unifying dimension that accommodates the existence of both types of visual working memory interactions. We show that either attraction or repulsion can arise simply as a function of manipulations of memory fidelity. We also demonstrate that subjective ratings of fidelity predict the presence of attraction or repulsion on a trial-by-trial basis. We discuss how these results bear on computational models of visual working memory and contextualize these results within the literature of attraction and repulsion effects in long-term memory and perception.

To replicate, or not to replicate - that should not be a question.

Recent simulations suggest that ecologists can enhance the predictive ability of models by designing experiments that maximise the number of levels of an experimental factor by sacrificing replication. Here, I describe how these simulations were based on a faulty metric of prediction success and reinforce the importance of replication.

Built environment and physical activity among adolescents: the moderating effects of neighborhood safety and social support.

BACKGROUND: Increasing emphasis has been placed on improving physical activity levels through multilevel interventions. This study aims to examine moderating effects of neighborhood safety (crime and traffic) and social support (from parent and sibling/peer) for physical activity in the relationship between the built environment and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) outside school hours among adolescents in Melbourne. METHODS: Data were from the NEighbourhood Activity in Youth study conducted among adolescents in Melbourne, Australia (n = 358, 15.3 (SD = 1.5) years). MVPA outside school hours was assessed by accelerometer. Built environment features within 1 km and 2 km residential buffers including recreation facilities, park area, and walkability and its components were assessed using Geographic Information Systems. Neighborhood safety, social support for physical activity and sociodemographic information were self-reported by adolescents. Multilevel linear regression models were used to estimate associations. RESULTS: Support for physical activity from sibling/peer positively moderated the relationship between recreation facilities (1 km), residential density (2 km) and MVPA. Recreation facility (count within 2 km), walkability (1 km and 2 km) and residential density (1 km) had significant positive associations with MVPA outside school hours. CONCLUSION: The built environment appeared to have stronger facilitating effects on MVPA among adolescents who had favourable support for physical activity from their sibling or peer. Multilevel interventions that target the built environment and social factors are needed to promote MVPA outside school hours among adolescents.

Exploring Factors Associated With Physical Activity in Older Adults: An Ecological Approach.

According to ecological models of behavior, the physical environment can influence physical activity engagement by a series of mediating and moderating processes. This study tested such a model to identify factors relevant to older adults' engagement in moderate-vigorous physical activity. Sociodemographic, psychological, physical, and environmental factors were assessed in 432 Western Australians aged 60 and older. Moderate-vigorous physical activity was measured objectively using accelerometers. No environmental variables were related to engagement in moderate-vigorous physical activity either directly or indirectly. However, various individual-level factors were significant, indicating that these may be more important than environmental factors in locations such as Australia that have generally conducive environments and ambient conditions.

Reconsidering the 'self' in self-management of chronic illness: Lessons from relational autonomy.

Self-management is often presented as a panacea for chronic disease care. It plays an important role at the policy level and increasingly guides the delivery of health care services. Self-management approaches to care are founded on traditional individualistic views of autonomy in which the patient is understood as being independent, rational, self-interested, and self-governing. This conceptualization of autonomy has been challenged, particularly by feminist scholars. In this paper I review predominant critiques of self-management and the traditional individualistic view of autonomy. I propose that a relational approach to autonomy, which is premised on social embeddedness and attends to social, political, and material conditions, is a more sound conception of autonomy capable of taking into consideration the complexities of illness experiences. I suggest that integrating a relational perspective of autonomy into self-management will be valuable in guiding its progression and elaborate ways in which self-management research and practice could benefit from incorporating a relational approach to autonomy.

Probing the limits of predictability: data assimilation of chaotic dynamics in complex food webs.

The daunting complexity of ecosystems has led ecologists to use mathematical modelling to gain understanding of ecological relationships, processes and dynamics. In pursuit of mathematical tractability, these models use simplified descriptions of key patterns, processes and relationships observed in nature. In contrast, ecological data are often complex, scale-dependent, space-time correlated, and governed by nonlinear relations between organisms and their environment. This disparity in complexity between ecosystem models and data has created a large gap in ecology between model and data-driven approaches. Here, we explore data assimilation (DA) with the Ensemble Kalman filter to fuse a two-predator-two-prey model with abundance data from a 2600+ day experiment of a plankton community. We analyse how frequently we must assimilate measured abundances to predict accurately population dynamics, and benchmark our population model's forecast horizon against a simple null model. Results demonstrate that DA enhances the predictability and forecast horizon of complex community dynamics.

Finding politically feasible conservation policies: the case of wildlife trafficking.

Conservation management is of increasing importance in ecology as most ecosystems nowadays are essentially managed ecosystems. Conservation managers work within a political-ecological system when they develop and attempt to implement a conservation plan that is designed to meet particular conservation goals. In this article, we develop a decision support tool that can identify a conservation policy for a managed wildlife population that is both sustainable and politically feasible. Part of our tool consists of a simulation model composed of interacting influence diagrams. We build, fit, and use our tool on the case of rhino horn trafficking between South Africa and Asia. Using these diagrams, we show how a rhino poacher's belief system can be modified by such a policy and locate it in a perceived risks-benefits space before and after policy implementation. We statistically fit our model to observations on group actions and rhino abundance. We then use this fitted model to compute a politically feasible conservation policy.

Relationships between the neighborhood environment and depression in older adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

ABSTRACTBackground:While depression is a growing public health issue, the percentage of individuals with depression receiving treatment is low. Physical and social attributes of the neighborhood may influence the level of depressive symptoms and the prevalence of depression in older adults. METHODS: This review systematically examined the literature on neighborhood environmental correlates of depression in older adults. Findings were analyzed according to three depression outcomes: depressive symptoms, possible depression, and clinical depression. Based on their description in the article, environmental variables were assigned to one of 25 categories. The strength of evidence was statistically quantified using a meta-analytical approach with articles weighted for sample size and study quality. Findings were summarized by the number of positive, negative, and statistically non-significant associations by each combination of environmental attribute - depression outcome and by combining all depression outcomes. RESULTS: Seventy-three articles met the selection criteria. For all depression outcomes combined, 12 of the 25 environmental attribute categories were considered to be sufficiently studied. Three of these, neighborhood socio-economic status, collective efficacy, and personal/crime-related safety were negatively associated with all depression outcomes combined. Moderating effects on associations were sparsely investigated, with 52 articles not examining any. Attributes of the physical neighborhood environment have been understudied. CONCLUSION: This review provides support for the potential influence of some neighborhood attributes on population levels of depression. However, further research is needed to adequately examine physical attributes associated with depression and moderators of both social and physical neighborhood environment attribute - depression outcome associations.

Barriers to physical activity and healthy diet among breast cancer survivors: A multilevel perspective.

Cancer survivors engage in suboptimal levels of health behaviours and report many barriers to health behaviours, but we lack a solid understanding of the different levels of barriers and how they relate to enacted health behaviours. To address these issues, we conducted mixed-method research in 97 breast cancer survivors. Participants' barriers to physical activity (PA) and healthy diet, asked as an open-ended question, were coded as individual-level, social-level, and organisational/environmental-level for each health behaviour. Moderate-to-vigorous PA and fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake were assessed. Most participants perceived at least one PA (72.7%) and diet (64.9%) individual-level barrier (e.g. physical symptoms/injury); only 15.2% (PA) and 15.6% (diet) reported at least one social-level barrier (e.g. family obligations). About 28.8% (PA) and 29.9% (diet) perceived at least one organisational/environmental-level barrier (e.g. job demand, cost of F&V). Survivors perceiving individual-level dietary barriers consumed less F&V (-.65 servings/day) than those not perceiving dietary barriers at this level. Survivors perceiving social-level dietary barriers reported marginally lower F&V intake (-.65 servings/day) than their counterparts. Those perceiving organisational/environmental-level PA barriers reported marginally fewer minutes (-44.30/week) of moderate-to-vigorous PA than their counterparts. Barriers at multiple levels should be addressed to improve health behaviours among breast cancer survivors.

An exploratory analysis of the interactions between social norms and the built environment on cycling for recreation and transport.

BACKGROUND: There is growing evidence of the public health benefits of promoting cycling. The ways that the built environment and perceived social norms independently influence cycling participation is well established. However, whether these factors interact to influence cycling participation has not been examined. Such research is important because understanding the effect of multiple socio-ecological factors and the interactions between them is needed to guide the development of interventions and strategies to increase cycling participation. Therefore, the aim of this study is to explore the interactive effects of the built environment and perceived social norms on transport and recreational cycling. METHODS: Data was collected using a self-administered online questionnaire from 228 office workers in Metropolitan Melbourne, Australia. Measures used in previous research were employed to assess self-reported transport and recreation cycling in the last week, perceptions of neighbourhood built environment, perceived social norms towards cycling, and objective land-use mix, residential density and street connectivity of the suburbs in which participants lived and work. Multiple binary logistic regression analyses were conducted to explore the interactive effects of the built environment and perceived social norms on transport and recreation cycling. All interactive effects were considered significant at p < 0.10. RESULTS: There was a significant interactive effect between the workplace built environment and perceived group norm on transport cycling (p = 0.06). There were no other significant interactive effects observed between components of the built environment and perceived social norms on transport or recreational cycling. CONCLUSIONS: The interactive effect found in this study provides some evidence that the workplace built environment interacts with perceived group norms to influence cycling for transport. Positive perceptions of the workplace built environment, such as showers and secure bike racks, can somewhat compensate for the negative influence of when cycling is considered less of a norm among, family, friend or colleagues. However, the findings of this study did not support that the neighbourhood built environment and perceived social norms interact to influence cycling for recreation or transport. These findings contribute to the knowledge of how multiple factors may reciprocate to influence individual's decision to cycle. More research into the interactive effects of socio-ecological factors is warranted.