Spread of networked populations is determined by the interplay between dispersal behavior and habitat configuration.

Predicting the spread of populations across fragmented habitats is vital if we are to manage their persistence in the long term. We applied network theory with a model and an experiment to show that spread rate is jointly defined by the configuration of habitat networks (i.e., the arrangement and length of connections between habitat fragments) and the movement behavior of individuals. We found that population spread rate in the model was well predicted by algebraic connectivity of the habitat network. A multigeneration experiment with the microarthropod Folsomia candida validated this model prediction. The realized habitat connectivity and spread rate were determined by the interaction between dispersal behavior and habitat configuration, such that the network configurations that facilitated the fastest spread changed depending on the shape of the species' dispersal kernel. Predicting the spread rate of populations in fragmented landscapes requires combining knowledge of species-specific dispersal kernels and the spatial configuration of habitat networks. This information can be used to design landscapes to manage the spread and persistence of species in fragmented habitats.

Emergent encoding of dispersal network topologies in spatial metapopulation models.

We address a generalization of the concept of metapopulation capacity for trees and networks acting as the template for ecological interactions. The original measure had been derived from an insightful phenomenological model and is based on the leading eigenvalue of a suitable landscape matrix. It yields a versatile predictor of metapopulation persistence through a threshold value of the eigenvalue determined by ecological features of the focal species. Here, we present an analytical solution to a fundamental microscopic model that incorporates key ingredients of metapopulation dynamics and explicitly distinguishes between individuals comprising the "settled population" and "explorers" seeking colonization. Our approach accounts for general network characteristics (in particular graph-driven directional dispersal which is known to significantly constrain many ecological estimates) and yields a generalized version of the original model, to which it reduces for particular cases. Through examples, including real landscapes used as the template, we compare the predictions from our approach with those of the standard model. Results suggest that in several cases of practical interest, differences are significant. We also examine, with both models, how changes in habitat fragmentation, including removal, addition, or alteration in size, affect metapopulation persistence. The current approach demonstrates a high level of flexibility, enabling the incorporation of diverse "microscopic" elements and their impact on the resulting biodiversity landscape pattern.

Frugivore-mediated seed dispersal in fragmented landscapes: Compositional and functional turnover from forest to matrix.

Seed dispersal by frugivores is a fundamental function for plant community dynamics in fragmented landscapes, where forest remnants are typically embedded in a matrix of anthropogenic habitats. Frugivores can mediate both connectivity among forest remnants and plant colonization of the matrix. However, it remains poorly understood how frugivore communities change from forest to matrix due to the loss or replacement of species with traits that are less advantageous in open habitats and whether such changes ultimately influence the composition and traits of dispersed plants via species interactions. Here, we close this gap by using a unique dataset of seed-dispersal networks that were sampled in forest patches and adjacent matrix habitats of seven fragmented landscapes across Europe. We found a similar diversity of frugivores, plants, and interactions contributing to seed dispersal in forest and matrix, but a high turnover (replacement) in all these components. The turnover of dispersed seeds was smaller than that of frugivore communities because different frugivore species provided complementary seed dispersal in forest and matrix. Importantly, the turnover involved functional changes toward larger and more mobile frugivores in the matrix, which dispersed taller, larger-seeded plants with later fruiting periods. Our study provides a trait-based understanding of frugivore-mediated seed dispersal through fragmented landscapes, uncovering nonrandom shifts that can have cascading consequences for the composition of regenerating plant communities. Our findings also highlight the importance of forest remnants and frugivore faunas for ecosystem resilience, demonstrating a high potential for passive forest restoration of unmanaged lands in the matrix.

Principles for area-based biodiversity conservation.

Recent international agreements have strengthened and expanded commitments to protect and restore native habitats for biodiversity protection ("area-based biodiversity conservation"). Nevertheless, biodiversity conservation is hindered because how such commitments should be implemented has been strongly debated, which can lead to suboptimal habitat protection decisions. We argue that, despite the debates, there are three essential principles for area-based biodiversity conservation. These principles are related to habitat geographic coverage, amount, and connectivity. They emerge from evidence that, while large areas of nature are important and must be protected, conservation or restoration of multiple small habitat patches is also critical for global conservation, particularly in regions with high land use. We contend that the many area-based conservation initiatives expected in the coming decades should follow the principles we identify, regardless of ongoing debates. Considering the importance of biodiversity for maintenance of ecosystem services, we suggest that this would bring widespread societal benefits.

Species Diversity and Habitat Fragmentation Per Se: The Influence of Local Extinctions and Species Clustering.

AbstractAnthropogenic fragmentation of habitat is considered to be a critical factor contributing to the decline of species. However, a general consensus on the degree to which habitat loss and what has been called "habitat fragmentation per se" contribute to the loss of species diversity has not yet emerged. For empirical and theoretical reasons the topic has recently attracted renewed attention, thus reviving the "single large or several small" (SLOSS) debate. To study the effect of fragmentation per se, we use a spatially explicit and continuous, competitively neutral simulation model with immigration from a regional pool. The model accounts for the influence of ecological drift and intrafragment species clustering (due to limited dispersal) on local (plot) and global (landscape) diversity. We find that fragmentation increases global diversity but decreases local diversity, prominently so if fragments become more isolated. Cluster formation is a key mechanism reducing local diversity. By adding external disturbance events that lead to the occasional extinction of entire communities in habitat fragments, we show that the combined effect of such extinctions and cluster formation can create nonlinear interactive effects of fragmentation and fragment isolation on diversity patterns. We conclude that while in most cases fragmentation will decrease local and increase landscape diversity, universal predictions concerning the SLOSS debate should be taken with care.

Flower-bee versus pollen-bee metanetworks in fragmented landscapes.

Understanding the organization of mutualistic networks at multiple spatial scales is key to ensure biological conservation and functionality in human-modified ecosystems. Yet, how changing habitat and landscape features affect pollen-bee interaction networks is still poorly understood. Here, we analysed how bee-flower visitation and bee-pollen-transport interactions respond to habitat fragmentation at the local network and regional metanetwork scales, combining data from 29 fragments of calcareous grasslands, an endangered biodiversity hotspot in central Europe. We found that only 37% of the total unique pairwise species interactions occurred in both pollen-transport and flower visitation networks, whereas 28% and 35% were exclusive to pollen-transport and flower visitation networks, respectively. At local level, network specialization was higher in pollen-transport networks, and was negatively related to the diversity of land cover types in both network types. At metanetwork level, pollen transport data revealed that the proportion of single-fragment interactions increased with landscape diversity. Our results show that the specialization of calcareous grasslands' plant-pollinator networks decreases with landscape diversity, but network specialization is underestimated when only based on flower visitation information. Pollen transport data, more than flower visitation, and multi-scale analyses of metanetworks are fundamental for understanding plant-pollinator interactions in human-dominated landscapes.

Population genomic structure of a widespread, urban-dwelling mammal: The eastern grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis).

Urbanization is a persistent and widespread driver of global environmental change, potentially shaping evolutionary processes due to genetic drift and reduced gene flow in cities induced by habitat fragmentation and small population sizes. We tested this prediction for the eastern grey squirrel (Sciurus carolinensis), a common and conspicuous forest-dwelling rodent, by obtaining 44K SNPs using reduced representation sequencing (ddRAD) for 403 individuals sampled across the species' native range in eastern North America. We observed moderate levels of genetic diversity, low levels of inbreeding, and only a modest signal of isolation-by-distance. Clustering and migration analyses show that estimated levels of migration and genetic connectivity were higher than expected across cities and forested areas, specifically within the eastern portion of the species' range dominated by urbanization, and genetic connectivity was less than expected within the western range where the landscape is fragmented by agriculture. Landscape genetic methods revealed greater gene flow among individual squirrels in forested regions, which likely provide abundant food and shelter for squirrels. Although gene flow appears to be higher in areas with more tree cover, only slight discontinuities in gene flow suggest eastern grey squirrels have maintained connected populations across urban areas in all but the most heavily fragmented agricultural landscapes. Our results suggest urbanization shapes biological evolution in wildlife species depending strongly on the composition and habitability of the landscape matrix surrounding urban areas.

Anthropogenic land-use change decreases pollination and male and female fitness in terrestrial flowering plants.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The majority of the earth's land area is currently occupied by humans. Measuring how terrestrial plants reproduce in these pervasive environments is essential for understanding their long-term viability and their ability to adapt to changing environments. METHODS: We conducted hierarchical and phylogenetically-independent meta-analyses to assess the overall effects of anthropogenic land-use changes on pollination, and male and female fitness in terrestrial plants. KEY RESULTS: We found negative global effects of land use change (i.e., mainly habitat loss and fragmentation) on pollination and on female and male fitness of terrestrial flowering plants. Negative effects were stronger in plants with self-incompatibility (SI) systems and pollinated by invertebrates, regardless of life form and sexual expression. Pollination and female fitness of pollination generalist and specialist plants were similarly negatively affected by land-use change, whereas male fitness of specialist plants showed no effects. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings indicate that angiosperm populations remaining in fragmented habitats negatively affect pollination, and female and male fitness, which will likely decrease the recruitment, survival, and long-term viability of plant populations remaining in fragmented landscapes. We underline the main current gaps of knowledge for future research agendas and call out not only for a decrease in the current rates of land-use changes across the world but also to embark on active restoration efforts to increase the area and connectivity of remaining natural habitats.

Microgeographic variation in demography and thermal regimes stabilize regional abundance of a widespread freshwater fish.

Predicting the persistence of species under climate change is an increasingly important objective in ecological research and management. However, biotic and abiotic heterogeneity can drive asynchrony in population responses at small spatial scales, complicating species-level assessments. For widely distributed species consisting of many fragmented populations, such as brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis), understanding the drivers of asynchrony in population dynamics can improve the predictions of range-wide climate impacts. We analyzed the demographic time series from mark-recapture surveys of 11 natural brook trout populations in eastern Canada over 13 years to examine the extent, drivers, and consequences of fine-scale population variation. The focal populations were genetically differentiated, occupied a small area (~25 km2 ) with few human impacts, and experienced similar climate conditions. Recruitment was highly asynchronous, weakly related to climate variables and showed population-specific relationships with other demographic processes, generating diverse population dynamics. In contrast, individual growth was mostly synchronized among populations and driven by a shared positive relationship with stream temperature. Outputs from population-specific models were unrelated to four of the five hypothesized drivers (recruitment, growth, reproductive success, phylogenetic distance), but variation in groundwater inputs strongly influenced stream temperature regimes and stock-recruitment relationships. Finally, population asynchrony generated a portfolio effect that stabilized regional species abundance. Our results demonstrated that population demographics and habitat diversity at microgeographic scales can play a significant role in moderating species responses to climate change. Moreover, we suggest that the absence of human activities within study streams preserved natural habitat variation and contributed to asynchrony in brook trout abundance, while the small study area eased monitoring and increased the likelihood of detecting asynchrony. Therefore, anthropogenic habitat degradation, landscape context, and spatial scale must be considered when developing management strategies to monitor and maintain populations that are diverse, stable, and resilient to climate change.

Wildlife mortality risk posed by high and low traffic roads.

Wildlife mortality due to collisions with vehicles (roadkill) is one of the predominant negative effects exerted by roads on many wildlife species. Reducing roadkill is therefore a major component of wildlife conservation. Roadkill is affected by various factors, including road attributes and traffic volume. It is theorized that the effect of traffic volume on roadkill probability should be unimodal. However, empirical evidence for this theory is lacking. Using a large-scale roadkill database of 18 wildlife species in Israel, encompassing 2846 km of roads over 10 years, we explored the effects of traffic volume and road attributes (e.g., road lighting, verge vegetation) on roadkill probability with a multivariate generalized linear mixed model. A unimodal effect of traffic volume was identified for the striped hyena (Hyaena hyaena), whereas 5 species demonstrated a novel quadratic U-shaped effect (e.g., golden jackal [Canis aureus]). Four species showed a negative linear effect (e.g., wild boar [Sus scrofa]). We also identified varying effects of road attributes on roadkill. For instance, road lighting and roadside trees decreased roadkill for several species, whereas bus stops and concrete guardrails led to increased roadkill. The theorized unimodal effect of traffic volume may only apply to large, agile species, and the U-shaped effect could be related to intraspecies variability in traffic avoidance behavior. In general, we found that both high-traffic and low-traffic roads can pose a high mortality risk for wildlife. It is therefore important to monitor roadkill on low-traffic roads and adapt road attributes to mitigate roadkill. Road design for effective roadkill mitigation includes reducing the use of concrete guardrails and median barriers where possible and avoiding dense bushes in verge landscaping. These measures are complemented by employing wildlife detection systems, driver warnings, and seasonal speed reduction measures on low-traffic roads identified as roadkill hotspots.

Riesgo de mortalidad de fauna presentado por las carreteras de mucho y poco tráfico Denneboom et al. 23­229 Resumen La mortalidad de fauna por colisiones con vehículos es uno de los efectos negativos predominantes que tienen las carreteras sobre muchas especies. Por lo tanto, la reducción de esta mortalidad es un componente principal de la conservación de la fauna. Esta mortalidad se ve afectada por varios factores, incluyendo las características de la carretera y el volumen de tráfico. Se piensa que el efecto del volumen de tráfico sobre la probabilidad de las colisiones debería ser unimodal; sin embargo, la evidencia empírica para esta teoría no es suficiente. Usamos una base de datos de colisiones de 18 especies de fauna en Israel que engloba 2,846 km de carreteras durante diez años para explorar con un modelo mixto lineal generalizado multivariado los efectos del volumen de tráfico y las características de la carretera (p. ej., iluminación, vegetación de borde) sobre la probabilidad de colisiones. Identificamos un efecto unimodal del volumen del tráfico para la hiena rayada (Hyaena hyaena), mientras que cinco especies demostraron un efecto cuadrático novedoso en forma de U, como el chacal dorado (Canis aureus). Cuatro especies mostraron un efecto negativo lineal, como el jabalí salvaje (Sus scrofa). También identificamos varios efectos de las características de la carretera sobre las colisiones. Por ejemplo, la iluminación y los árboles en los bordes disminuyeron las colisiones para varias especies, mientras que las paradas de camión y los quitamiedos de concreto resultaron en un incremento de las colisiones. La teoría del efecto unimodal del volumen de tráfico podría aplicar sólo para especies grandes y ágiles, mientras que el efecto en forma de U podría relacionarse con la variabilidad de comportamiento para evitar colisiones que hay entre las especies. En general, descubrimos que tanto las carreteras con poco y mucho tráfico pueden representar un riesgo de mortalidad para la fauna. Por lo tanto, es importante monitorear las colisiones en las carreteras con poco tráfico y adaptar las características de la carretera para mitigar las colisiones. El diseño de las carreteras para una mitigación efectiva incluye reducir el uso de quitamiedos de concreto y barreras centrales en donde sea posible y evitar los arbustos densos en el paisajismo de los bordes. Estas medidas están complementadas con el uso de sistemas de detección de fauna, señalamientos para los conductores y medidas estacionales de reducción de la velocidad en las carreteras de poco tráfico identificadas como puntos calientes de colisiones.

Temporal dynamics of the microbial heterogeneity-diversity relationship in microcosmic systems.

Spatial heterogeneity significantly enhances biodiversity, representing one of the ecology's most enduring paradigms. However, many studies have found decreasing, humped, and neutral correlations between spatial heterogeneity and biodiversity (heterogeneity-diversity relationships, HDR). These findings have pushed this widely accepted theory back into controversy. Microbial HDR research has lagged compared to that of plants and animals. Nevertheless, microbes have features that add a temporal-scale perspective to HDR research that is critical to understanding patterns of HDR. In this study, 157 microcosms with different types spatial heterogeneity were set up to map the HDR of microorganisms and their temporal dynamics using high-throughput sequencing techniques. The results show that the following: 1. Spatial heterogeneity can significantly alter microbial diversity in microcosmic systems. Changes in microbial diversity, in turn, lead to changes in environmental conditions. These changes caused microorganisms to exhibit increasing, decreasing, humped, U-shaped, and neutral HDR patterns. 2. The emergence of HDR patterns is characterized by temporal dynamics. Additionally, the HDR patterns generated by spatial structural and compositional heterogeneity exhibit inconsistent emergence times. These results suggest that the temporal dynamics of HDR may be one of the reasons for the coexistence of multiple patterns in previous studies. The feedback regulation between spatial heterogeneity-biodiversity-environmental conditions is an essential reason for the temporally dynamics of HDR patterns. All future ecological studies should pay attention to the temporal dynamic patterns of ecological factors.

Can't pass or won't pass: the importance of motivation when quantifying improved connectivity for riverine brown trout Salmo trutta.

Reversing the negative impacts that anthropogenic habitat fragmentation has on animal movement is a key goal in the management of landscapes and conservation of species globally. Accurate assessment of measures to remediate habitat fragmentation, such as fish passage solutions in rivers, are imperative but are particularly challenging for territorial species, which are less likely to leave their existing home range, or populations composed of both migratory and resident individuals (i.e., partial migration). This investigation quantified the movements of translocated (captured upstream of the impediment and released downstream) and non-translocated (captured and released downstream of the impediment) riverine brown trout (Salmo trutta L.), a species known to perform a homing movement, through a fish pass using passive integrated transponder (PIT) telemetry. A significantly higher proportion of translocated fish approached, entered, and passed (on a wider range of flows) compared to non-translocated fish, consistent with the theory that motivation is a key driver in fish pass use. Translocated fish that entered the pass were significantly larger than those that approached but did not enter, presumably due to physiological capability. Translocated fish were a more reliable indicator of the fish passage solution effectiveness than non-translocated fish. Our findings hence imply that many fish passage solutions globally, and potentially measures to remediate habitat fragmentation for other taxa, may have been mistakenly assessed for unmotivated animals. Studying both non-translocated and translocated fish is recommended to provide more accurate and cost-effective fish passage solution assessments.

Irrigation dams threaten Brazilian biodiversity.

Brazil is among the main contributors to global biodiversity, which, in turn, provides extensive ecosystem services. Agriculture is an activity that benefits greatly from these ecosystem services, but at the same time is degrading aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems and eroding Brazilian biodiversity. This conflict is growing, as emerging unsustainable legislative proposals that will benefit the agricultural sector are likely to accelerate the decline of biodiversity. One such initiative (Bill 1282/2019) would change Brazil's "Forest Code" (Law 12,651/2012) to facilitate construction of irrigation dams in Permanent Preservation Areas, a category that includes strips (with or without vegetation) along the edges of watercourses. Two other similar bills are advancing through committees in the Chamber of Deputies. Here we provide details of these three bills and discuss their consequences for Brazil's biodiversity if they are approved. Expected negative impacts with changes in the legislation include: increased deforestation; siltation; habitat fragmentation; introduction of non-native species; reduction in the availability of aquatic habitats; and changes in biogeochemical process. These proposals jeopardize biodiversity and may compromise the negotiations for an agreement between Mercosur and the European Union.

Landscape-scale habitat fragmentation is positively related to biodiversity, despite patch-scale ecosystem decay.

Positive effects of habitat patch size on biodiversity are often extrapolated to infer negative effects of habitat fragmentation on biodiversity at landscape scales. However, such cross-scale extrapolations typically fail. A recent, landmark, patch-scale analysis (Chase et al., 2020, Nature 584, 238-243) demonstrates positive patch size effects on biodiversity, that is, 'ecosystem decay' in small patches. Other authors have already extrapolated this result to infer negative fragmentation effects, that is, higher biodiversity in a few large than many small patches of the same cumulative habitat area. We test whether this extrapolation is valid. We find that landscape-scale patterns are opposite to their analogous patch-scale patterns: for sets of patches with equal total habitat area, species richness and evenness decrease with increasing mean size of the patches comprising that area, even when considering only species of conservation concern. Preserving small habitat patches will, therefore, be key to sustain biodiversity amidst ongoing environmental crises.

Ancient allopatry and ecological divergence act together to promote plant diversity in mountainous regions: evidence from comparative phylogeography of two genera in the Sino-Himalayan region.

BACKGROUND: How geographical isolation and ecological divergence act together to promote plant diversity in mountainous regions remains largely unknown. In this study, we chose two genera comprising a small number of species distributed in the Sino-Himalayan region, Megacodon (Gentianaceae) and Beesia (Ranunculaceae), which both exhibit a fragmented distribution pattern and are found across a wide range of elevations. By summarizing their common patterns of speciation and/or divergence processes, we aim to understand how environmental changes accelerated lineage diversification in the Sino-Himalayan region through ancient allopatry and ecological divergence. RESULTS: Using ddRAD-seq, chloroplast genome sequences, and specific molecular markers, we studied the phylogenetic relationships, population structure, and historical biogeography of Beesia and Megacodon. Both genera began to diverge from the late Miocene onwards, with ancient allopatry at lower elevations formed narrow-range species or relict populations. Mantel tests between genetic distance and climatic, elevational, or geographic distance revealed an isolation-by-distance pattern in Beesia and Megacodon stylophorus. Megacodon showed two clades occupying entirely different altitudinal ranges, whereas Beesia calthifolia exhibited a genetic divergence pattern along an elevation gradient. Furthermore, we conducted morphological measurements on Beesia calthifolia and found that different elevational groups had distinct leaf shapes. CONCLUSIONS: The regional disjunctions of plant groups in the Sino-Himalayan region are drastic and closely related to several biogeographic boundaries. As a consequence of major geological and climate change, ecological divergence when different elevations are colonized often happens simultaneously within plant groups. Although habitat fragmentation and parapatric ecological divergence each spur speciation to different extents, a combined effect of these two factors is a common phenomenon in the Sino-Himalayan region.

Are weak dispersers more vulnerable than strong dispersers to land use intensification?

Ecologists often state that weak dispersers are particularly at risk from land use intensification, and that they therefore should be prioritized for conservation. We reviewed the empirical evidence, to evaluate whether this idea should be used as a general rule in conservation. While 89% of authors predicted that weak dispersers are more vulnerable to land use intensification (80 out of 90 papers), only 56% of reported tests (235 out of 422) were consistent with this prediction. Thirty per cent of tests (128 out of 422) were consistent with the opposite prediction, that strong dispersers are more vulnerable to intensification, and 60% of articles (45 out of 75) had at least one test where strong dispersers were most vulnerable. The likelihood of finding that weak dispersers are more vulnerable to intensification than strong dispersers varied with latitude, taxonomic group and type of land use intensification. Notably, the odds of finding that weak dispersers are more vulnerable to intensification than strong dispersers was higher if the study was nearer to the equator. Taken together, our results show that the prediction that weak dispersers are more vulnerable than strong dispersers to intensification is not sufficiently supported to justify using weak dispersal as a general indicator of species risk in human-modified landscapes.

The reliability of regional ecological knowledge to build local interaction networks: a test using seed-dispersal networks across land-bridge islands.

Building ecological networks is the fundamental basis of depicting how species in communities interact, but sampling complex interaction networks is extremely labour intensive. Recently, indirect ecological information has been applied to build interaction networks. Here we propose to extend the source of indirect ecological information, and applied regional ecological knowledge to build local interaction networks. Using a high-resolution dataset consisting of 22 locally observed networks with 17 572 seed-dispersal events, we test the reliability of indirectly derived local networks based on regional ecological knowledge (REK) across islands. We found that species richness strongly influenced 'local interaction rewiring' (i.e. the proportion of locally observed interactions among regionally interacting species), and all network properties were biased using REK-based networks. Notably, species richness and local interaction rewiring strongly affected estimations of REK-based network structures. However, locally observed and REK-based networks detected the same trends of how network structure correlates to island area and isolation. These results suggest that we should use REK-based networks cautiously for reflecting actual interaction patterns of local networks, but highlight that REK-based networks have great potential for comparative studies across environmental gradients. The use of indirect regional ecological information may thus advance our understanding of biogeographical patterns of species interactions.

Ecological corridors homogenize plant root endospheric mycobiota.

Ecological corridors promote species coexistence in fragmented habitats where dispersal limits species fluxes. The corridor concept was developed and investigated with macroorganisms in mind, while microorganisms, the invisible majority of biodiversity, were disregarded. We analyzed the effect of corridors on the dynamics of endospheric fungal assemblages associated with plant roots at the scale of 1 m over 2 years (i.e. at five time points) by combining an experimental corridor-mesocosm with high-throughput amplicon sequencing. We showed that plant root endospheric mycobiota were sensitive to corridor effects when the corridors were set up at a small spatial scale. The endospheric mycobiota of connected plants had higher species richness, lower beta-diversity, and more deterministic assembly than the mycobiota of isolated plants. These effects became more pronounced with the development of host plants. Biotic corridors composed of host plants may thus play a key role in the spatial dynamics of microbial communities and may influence microbial diversity and related ecological functions.

Evaluating the genetic consequences of population subdivision as it unfolds and how to best mitigate them: A rare story about koalas.

The genetic consequences of the subdivision of populations are regarded as significant to long-term evolution, and research has shown that the scale and speed at which this is now occurring is critically reducing the adaptive potential of most species which inhabit human-impacted landscapes. Here, we provide a rare and, to our knowledge, the first analysis of this process while it is happening and demonstrate a method of evaluating the effect of mitigation measures such as fauna crossings. We did this by using an extensive genetic data set collected from a koala population which was intensely monitored during the construction of linear transport infrastructure which resulted in the subdivision of their population. First, we found that both allelic richness and effective population size decreased through the process of population subdivision. Second, we predicted the extent to which genetic drift could impact genetic diversity over time and showed that after only 10 generations the resulting two subdivided populations could experience between 12% and 69% loss in genetic diversity. Lastly, using forward simulations we estimated that a minimum of eight koalas would need to disperse from each side of the subdivision per generation to maintain genetic connectivity close to zero but that 16 koalas would ensure that both genetic connectivity and diversity remained unchanged. These results have important consequences for the genetic management of species in human-impacted landscapes by showing which genetic metrics are best to identify immediate loss in genetic diversity and how to evaluate the effectiveness of any mitigation measures.

Modeling the role of land conversion on the spread of an epizootic disease.

Land conversion and the resulting contact between domesticated and wild species has arguably been the single largest contributor to the emergence of novel epizootic and zoonotic diseases in the past century. An unintended consequence of these interactions is zoonotic or epizootic disease spillovers from wild species to humans and their domesticates. Disease spillovers are edge effects of land conversion and are sensitive to the size and shape of converted areas. We combine spatial metrics from landscape ecology with theoretical epidemiological models to understand how the size and shape of land conversion affect epizootic and zoonotic disease transmission of single and two species populations. We show that the less compact the converted area, and the greater the depth of the contact zone, the more rapidly will an introduced disease spread through the domesticated population.