Incidence Trends, Clinicopathologic Characteristics, and Overall Survival Prediction in Retinoblastoma Children: SEER Prognostic Nomogram Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Retinoblastoma is the most common intraocular malignant tumor occurring among children, with an incidence rate of 1/15 000. This study built a joinpoint regression model to assess the incidence trend of retinoblastoma from 2004 to 2015 and constructed a nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) in children. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients less than 19 years diagnosed with retinoblastoma from 2004 to 2015 were selected from the SEER database. Joinpoint regression analysis (version 4.9.0.0) was performed to evaluate the trends in retinoblastoma incidence rates from 2004 to 2015. Cox Regression Analysis was applied to investigate prognostic risk factors that influence OS. RESULTS: Joinpoint regression revealed that retinoblastoma incidence exhibited no significant increase or decrease from 2004 to 2015. As per the multiple Cox regression, tumor size, laterality, and residence (rural-urban continuum code) were correlated with OS and were used to construct a nomogram. The nomogram exhibited a good C-index of 0.71 (95% CI, 0.63 to 0.79), and the calibration curve for survival probability demonstrated that the predictions corresponded well with actual observations. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: A prognostic nomogram integrating the risk factors for retinoblastoma was constructed to provide comparatively accurate individual survival predictions. If validated, this type of assessment could be used to guide therapy in patients with retinoblastoma.

International disease burden of acute viral hepatitis among adolescents and young adults: An observational study.

Adolescents and young adults are the driving force of social development, and the prevalence of acute viral hepatitis (AVH) in this population cannot be ignored. At present, there are few studies on the disease burden of AVH in this age group, and most studies focus on chronic liver disease. In this study, we identified global trends in the burden of AVH among adolescents and young adults (15-29) to help policymakers implement precise disease interventions. In this observational study of disease trends, we collected data exclusively from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 study. This study examined the trends in the prevalence, incidence and mortality of AVH among adolescents and young adults in 21 regions of the world from 2009 to 2019. Age-specific disease trends were analysed with a joinpoint regression model. The overall global disease burden of AVH declined. The prevalence rate per 100,000 people decreased from 316.13 in 2009 to 198.79 in 2019, the incidence rate decreased from 3245.52 in 2009 to 2091.93 in 2019, and the death rate decreased from 0.87 in 2009 to 0.43 in 2019. During the study period, the prevalence of hepatitis B virtues (HBV) in the young population decreased, but the downward trend of other types of hepatitis other than HBV was not obvious, especially HAV, which even showed an upward trend. Among adolescents and young adults aged 15-29 years, Western Saharan Africa had the highest prevalence of AVH in 2019. There were significant differences in mortality rates among different age groups; 20-24 was the age group with the highest mortality rate from 2009 to 2019, followed by the 15-19 and 25-29 age groups. Although the overall global AVH disease burden declined, some causes of AVH, such as HAV, showed an upward trend during the study period. In addition, the prevalence of AVH among adolescents and young adults in Asia and Africa was higher than that in other parts of the world and warrants more attention. Finally, more research should be conducted on mortality in the 20-24 age group.

Demographic and geographical trends in chronic lower respiratory diseases mortality in the United States, 1999 to 2020.

Chronic lower respiratory disease (CLRD) related mortality has decreased in the United States due to increasing awareness in the general population and advancing preventative efforts, diagnostic measures, and treatment. However, demographic and regional differences still persist throughout the United States. In this study, we analyzed the temporal trends of demographic and geographical differences in CLRD-related mortality. Data was extracted from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research (CDC WONDER) database. Using this data, age-adjusted mortality rates per 100,000 people (AAMR), annual percentage change (APC), and average annual percentage changes with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were assessed. The Joinpoint Regression Program was used to determine mortality trends between 1999 and 2020 based on demographic and regional groups.During this study period, there were 3,064,049 CLRD-related deaths, with most demographics and regional areas showing an overall decreasing trend. However, higher mortality rates were seen in the non-Hispanic White population and rural areas. Interestingly, mortality rates witnessed a decreasing trend for males throughout the study duration compared to females, who only began to show decreases in mortality during the latter half of the 2010s. Using these results, one can target efforts and build policies to improve CLRD-related mortality and reduce disparities in the coming decades.

Age-Period-Cohort Analysis of Long-Term Trends in Ischemic Stroke Mortality in China Caused by Specific Risk Factors from 1990 to 2019.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to study the primary risk factors for the long-term trends of mortality rates in ischemic stroke (IS) in China. METHODS: Using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019) database, research was conducted on the 11 primary risk factors for the mortality rates of IS in China from 1990 to 2019. This study employed joinpoint regression software and the age-period-cohort method to evaluate the trends of mortality rates divided by age, period, and cohort over time. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) caused by a diet high in red meat and high body mass index in China showed an upward trend. ASMR increased first and then decreased due to smoking, diet high in sodium, particulate matter pollution, high fasting plasma glucose, and high systolic blood pressure. Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), kidney dysfunction, low temperature, and lead exposure remained relatively stable during this period. In the 35-45 age group, the mortality rate of IS due to high LDL-C was up to about 60%, and smoking affected men more than women. Overall, high LDL-C, high systolic blood pressure, and particulate matter pollution were the most common risk factors in patients with IS. The risk of death rose with age. The period and cohort relative risks showed that metabolic risk factors had the greatest impact on the mortality of IS. CONCLUSION: Metabolic risk factors have become the primary risk factors for the ASMR of IS in China. Relevant authorities should pay attention to their long-term effects on IS. Effective public health policies and interventions should be implemented to reduce the burden of IS.

The Cancer Incidence and Trends From 2011 to 2018 in Ma'anshan, China: A Registry-Based Observational Study.

BACKGROUND: The cancer burden in China has been increasing over the decades. However, the cancer incidence remains unknown in Ma'anshan, which is one of the central cities in the Yangtze River Delta in Eastern China. The study was designed to describe the cancer incidence and trends in Ma'anshan from 2011 to 2018, providing information about cancer etiology that is useful for prevention programs. METHODS: The cancer incidence rate and age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) were calculated using the cancer registry data in Ma'anshan during 2011-2018. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) of the ASIR was analyzed by the Joinpoint regression analysis. Age, period, and cohort effects on cancer incidence were estimated through the age-period-cohort model. RESULTS: There were 13,508 newly diagnosed cancer cases in males and 9558 in females in Ma'anshan during 2011-2018. The ASIR maintained a steady trend in both males and females. Age effects showed that cancer risk increased with age in both genders; no visible period effects were detected during this study period. Cohort effects changed slowly until the end of the 1950s, then started decreasing in males while increasing in females after 1960. Lung, gastric, female breast, colorectal, cervical, esophageal, liver, thyroid, lymphoma, and pancreatic cancer were the most common cancers in Ma'anshan during the study period. The ASIR of gastric cancer (AAPC: -3.72%), esophageal cancer (AAPC: -8.30%), and liver cancer (AAPC: -5.55%) declined, while that of female breast cancer (AAPC: 3.91%), colorectal cancer (AAPC: 3.23%), and thyroid cancer (AAPC: 22.38%) rose. CONCLUSION: During 2011-2018, the cancer incidence in Ma'anshan was lower than that in China, nation-wide. The incidence of upper gastrointestinal cancer decreased gradually while female breast, colorectal, and thyroid cancers showed an upward trend, consistent with the changes in the cancer spectrum in China. Further studies should be designed to discover the underlying causes of these findings.

Global, Regional, and National Incidence Trend Analysis of Malignant Skin Melanoma Between 1990 and 2019, and Projections Until 2034.

BACKGROUND: The goal of this study was to evaluate the global burden of malignant skin melanoma (MSM) from 1990 to 2019 using MSM-related data from the Global Burden of Disease study. METHODS: The incidences' relationships with the social-demographic index (SDI) and human developmental index (HDI) were investigated. To determine significant changes in incidence trends, the joinpoint regression model was used. To demonstrate trends in MSM mortality rates, an Age-Period-Cohort framework was conducted. For the projection of new cases and the age-standardized incidence rate (ASR) of MSM incidence to 2034, the Nordpred method was used. RESULTS: In 2019, the ASR incidence per 100, 000 people for MSM was 3.6 (95% UI, 2.6-4.2). MSM prevalence increased in most countries between 1990 and 2019 (average annual percentage change >0). HDI and annual percentage change (APC) (ρ = .63, P < .001), as well as SDI and ASR, had a positive correlation. The total MSM mortality rate declined globally, with an APC of -.61%. Likewise, the mortality rate for the age group of people with ages <77.5 years declined. Predictive analysis demonstrated a declining trend in ASR incidence and a growing number of MSM. CONCLUSION: There are significant differences in ASR incidence among regions and countries. Despite decreases in ASR incidence and fatality, MSM remains one of the leading sources of cancer mortality and morbidity globally. MSM necessitates more primary prevention measures and screening in high-risk areas.

Global, regional, and national burden of thalassemia during 1990-2019: A systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

INTRODUCTION: Thalassemia represents a significant public health challenge globally. However, the global burden of thalassemia and the disparities associated with it remain poorly understood. Our study aims to uncover the long-term spatial and temporal trends in thalassemia at global, regional, and national levels, analyze the impacts of age, time periods, and birth cohorts, and pinpoint the global disparities in thalassemia burden. METHODS: We extracted data on the thalassemia burden from the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019. We employed a joinpoint regression model to assess temporal trends in thalassemia burden and an age-period-cohort model to evaluate the effects of age, period, and cohort on thalassemia mortality. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2019, the number of thalassemia incident cases, prevalent cases, mortality cases, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) decreased by 20.9%, 3.1%, 38.6%, and 43.1%, respectively. Age-standardized rates of incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY declined across regions with high, high-middle, middle, and low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI), yet remained the highest in regions with low SDI and low-middle SDI as well as in Southeast Asia, peaking among children under five years of age. The global prevalence rate was higher in males than in females. The global mortality rate showed a consistent decrease with increasing age. CONCLUSION: The global burden of thalassemia has significantly declined, yet notable disparities exist in terms of gender, age groups, periods, birth cohorts, SDI regions, and GBD regions. Systemic interventions that include early screening, genetic counseling, premarital health examinations, and prenatal diagnosis should be prioritized in regions with low, and low-middle SDI, particularly in Southeast Asia. Future population-based studies should focus specifically on thalassemia subtypes and transfusion requirements, and national registries should enhance data capture through newborn screening.

Global prevalence and burden of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis from 1990 to 2019.

BACKGROUND: Tuberculosis(TB) remains a pressing public health challenge, with multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) emerging as a major threat. And healthcare authorities require reliable epidemiological evidence as a crucial reference to address this issue effectively. The aim was to offer a comprehensive epidemiological assessment of the global prevalence and burden of MDR-TB from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Estimates and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for the age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized disability-adjusted life years rate (ASR of DALYs), and age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of MDR-TB were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database. The prevalence and burden of MDR-TB in 2019 were illustrated in the population and regional distribution. Temporal trends were analyzed by using Joinpoint regression analysis to calculate the annual percentage change (APC), average annual percentage change (AAPC) and its 95% confidence interval(CI). RESULTS: The estimates of the number of cases were 687,839(95% UIs: 365,512 to 1223,262), the ASPR were 8.26 per 100,000 (95%UIs: 4.61 to 15.20), the ASR of DALYs were 52.38 per 100,000 (95%UIs: 22.64 to 97.60) and the ASDR were 1.36 per 100,000 (95%UIs: 0.54 to 2.59) of MDR-TB at global in 2019. Substantial burden was observed in Africa and Southeast Asia. Males exhibited higher ASPR, ASR of DALYs, and ASDR than females across most age groups, with the burden of MDR-TB increasing with age. Additionally, significant increases were observed globally in the ASIR (AAPC = 5.8; 95%CI: 5.4 to 6.1; P < 0.001), ASPR (AAPC = 5.9; 95%CI: 5.4 to 6.4; P < 0.001), ASR of DALYs (AAPC = 4.6; 95%CI: 4.2 to 5.0; P < 0.001) and ASDR (AAPC = 4.4; 95%CI: 4.0 to 4.8; P < 0.001) of MDR-TB from 1990 to 2019. CONCLUSIONS: This study underscored the persistent threat of drug-resistant tuberculosis to public health. It is imperative that countries and organizations worldwide take immediate and concerted action to implement measures aimed at significantly reducing the burden of TB.

Temporal trend analysis of acute hepatitis B virus infection in China, 1990-2019.

China faces challenges in meeting the World Health Organization (WHO)'s target of reducing hepatitis B virus (HBV) infections by 95% using 2015 as the baseline. Using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 data, joinpoint regression models were used to analyse the temporal trends in the crude incidence rates (CIRs) and age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of acute HBV (AHBV) infections in China from 1990 to 2019. The age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the effects of age, period, and birth cohort on AHBV infection risk, while the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was applied to predict the annual number and ASIRs of AHBV infections in China through 2030. The joinpoint regression model revealed that CIRs and ASIRs decreased from 1990 to 2019, with a faster decline occurring among males and females younger than 20 years. According to the age-period-cohort model, age effects showed a steep increase followed by a gradual decline, whereas period effects showed a linear decline, and cohort effects showed a gradual rise followed by a rapid decline. The number of cases of AHBV infections in China was predicted to decline until 2030, but it is unlikely to meet the WHO's target. These findings provide scientific support and guidance for hepatitis B prevention and control.

Trends in polypharmacy among U.S. adults with asthma, 2001-2020.

OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate trends in polypharmacy prevalence among adults with asthma in the United States. METHODS: Data from the 2001-2020 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were used to estimate the weighted prevalence of polypharmacy. Joinpoint regression analysis was conducted to evaluate trends in polypharmacy. Trends were first evaluated overall and then stratified by asthma severity and asthma control. A multivariable logistic regression model was used to identify factors associated with polypharmacy. RESULTS: From 2001 to 2020, a stable trend in polypharmacy among U.S. adults with asthma was observed (average annual percent change [AAPC]=1.02, p=0.71). Trends across different asthma severity were stable (mild asthma: AAPC=2.93, p=0.20; moderate asthma: AAPC=-2.22, p=0.35; severe asthma: AAPC=0.45, p=0.82). Trends in adults with good asthma control and those with poor control stayed constant (good control: AAPC=0.82, p=0.68; poor control: AAPC=-1.22, p=0.82). Several factors, including older age, females, Non-Hispanic Black, health insurance coverage, family income, number of healthcare visits, former smokers, multi-morbidities, asthma severity, and asthma control, were associated with polypharmacy. CONCLUSIONS: Polypharmacy prevalence has remained constant among U.S. adults with asthma over the past two decades. Despite a stable overall trend, disparities in polypharmacy prevalence persist across different asthma severity and control status, underscoring the need for tailored medication management to improve asthma care.

Trend and driving factors in burden of age-related macular degeneration in older adults aged 60-89 years: a global analysis over three decades.

BACKGROUND: To explore temporal trends and determine driving factors of age-related macular degeneration (AMD) burden in older adults aged 60-89 years at global, regional and national levels from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs) were extracted. Joinpoint regression analysis was adopted to calculate average annual percentage change and to identify the year with the most significant changes. Global trends were stratified by sex, age and sociodemographic index, and regional and national trends were explored. Decomposition analysis was conducted to determine what extent the forces of population size, age structure and epidemiologic change driving alterations of AMD burden. RESULTS: Globally, prevalence rate slightly increased whereas YLDs rate decreased. The year 2005 marked a turning point where both prevalence and YLDs started to decline. Regionally, Western Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest prevalence and YLDs rates in 2019, with East Asia experiencing the most notable rise in prevalence from 1990 to 2019. Global decomposition revealed that the increased case number was primarily driven by population growth and ageing, and epidemiological change was only detected to lessen but far from offset these impacts. CONCLUSIONS: Although there was only slight increase or even decrease in prevalence and YLDs rates of AMD in older adults, the case number still nearly doubled, which may be primarily attributed to population growth and ageing, coupled with the emerging growing pattern of prevalence rate from 2015, collectively suggesting a huge challenge in control and management of AMD.

Changing Trends in the Global Disease Burden of Pancreatic Cancer from 1990 to 2030.

AIM: To explore the global burden of pancreatic cancer (PC) from 1990 to 2019, evaluate independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC, and predict the incidence of PC in the next decade. METHODS: Data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. We calculated the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate, age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), and age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR) of PC. Joinpoint Poisson regression analysis was performed to identify the temporal trends in the incidence of PC. Then, a two-factor model was constructed using the Poisson log-linear model, and a three-factor model was constructed using the intrinsic estimator (IE) method to estimate the independent effects of age, period, and cohort on the incidence of PC. Finally, the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model was also used to predict the age-standardized global incidence rate of PC and age-standardized new PC cases from 2020 to 2030. RESULTS: Overall, the DALY rate, ASMR, ASIR, and ASPR all increased from 1990 to 2019. The ASIR in males increased from 6 per 100,000 in 1990 to 7.5 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 8.2 per 100,000 by 2030. Meanwhile, the ASIR in females rose from 4.5 per 100,000 in 1990 to 5.7 per 100,000 in 2019 and was predicted to rise to 6.3 per 100,000 by 2030. The age effect on the incidence of PC showed sharp increasing trends from 40 to 79 years. The period effect continuously increased with advancing periods, but the cohort effect showed substantial decreasing trends. CONCLUSIONS: The age and period effect on the incidence of PC presented increasing trends, while the cohort effect showed decreasing trends. All indicators of the global burden of PC are increasing in both males and females, and the ASIR is predicted to rise at an alarming rate by 2030. Thus, timely screening and intervention are recommended, especially for earlier birth cohorts at high risk.

Epidemiological study of pediatric nutritional deficiencies: an analysis from the global burden of disease study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Nutritional deficiencies (ND) continue to threaten the lives of millions of people around the world, with children being the worst hit. Nevertheless, no systematic study of the epidemiological features of child ND has been conducted so far. Therefore, we aimed to comprehensively assess the burden of pediatric ND. METHODS: We analyzed data on pediatric ND between 1990 and 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease study (GBD) 2019 at the global, regional, and national levels. In addition, joinpoint regression models were used to assess temporal trends. RESULTS: In 2019, the number of prevalent cases of childhood malnutrition increased to 435,071,628 globally. The global age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and DALY rates showed an increasing trend between 1990 and 2019. Meanwhile, the burden of child malnutrition was negatively correlated with sociodemographic index (SDI). Asia and Africa still carried the heaviest burden. The burden and trends of child malnutrition varied considerably across countries and regions. At the age level, we found that malnutrition was significantly more prevalent among children < 5 years of age. CONCLUSION: Pediatric ND remains a major public health challenge, especially in areas with low SDI. Therefore, primary healthcare services in developing countries should be improved, and effective measures, such as enhanced pre-school education, strengthened nutritional support, and early and aggressive treatment, need to be developed.

Trends in transport injuries burden and risk factors among children under 14 years old in China: 1990-2019.

BACKGROUND: Transport injuries (TI) remains one of leading causes of death in children in China. This study aimed to analyze the temporal trend of disease burden and associated risk factors of TI among children aged 0-14 years in China, utilizing data from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: We retrieved data of disease burden and risk factors of TI among children aged 0-14 year in China from 1990 to 2019 from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset. We estimated incidence rate, death rate, and disability adjusted life years (DALYs) rate with a 95% uncertainty interval (95% UI), stratified by age, sex, and all type-road users. Trends in disease burden with annual percentage changes (APC) and average annual percent change (AAPC) were performed by Joinpoint regression model. RESULTS: The incidence rate (AAPC = 1.18%, P < 0.001) of TI among children aged 0-14 years showed an increasing trend, whereas mortality rate (AAPC = -3.87%, P < 0.001) and DALYs rate (AAPC = -3.83%, P < 0.001) decreased annually. Notably, boys experienced a higher increase in incidence (1.30%) compared to girls (1.06%), but a faster decrease in mortality and DALYs rate (-3.90% vs. -3.82%, -3.88% vs. -3.79%, respectively) (Pall < 0.001). Declines in death rates and DALYs rates were observed across all age groups (Pall < 0.001), while remained the highest among children aged 0-4 in 2019. Among different road-type users, cyclist road injuries were identified as the primary cause of TI (182.3 cases per 100,000) while pedestrians were the group with the highest mortality (2.9 cases per 100,000) and DALYs rate (243 cases per 100,000) in 2019. Besides, alcohol use was a significant risk factors for TI, while low temperature appeared to be a protective factor. CONCLUSION: Future efforts must prioritize raising awareness among children and their guardians to mitigate the disease burden of TI in children. It's critical to enhance preventive interventions for boys, children aged 0-4 and vulnerable road users such as pedestrians and cyclists in future.

Trends in parkinson's disease mortality in China from 2004 to 2021: a joinpoint analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to analyze the trends of Parkinson's disease (PD) mortality rates among Chinese residents from 2004 to 2021, provide evidence for the formulation of PD prevention and control strategies to improve the quality of life among PD residents. METHODS: Demographic and sociological data such as gender, urban or rural residency and age were obtained from the National Cause of Death Surveillance Dataset from 2004 to 2021. We then analyzed the trends of PD mortality rates by Joinpoint regression. RESULTS: The PD mortality and standardized mortality rates in China showed an overall increasing trend during 2004-2021 (average annual percentage change [AAPC] = 7.14%, AAPCASMR=3.21%, P < 0.001). The mortality and standardized mortality rate in male (AAPC = 7.65%, AAPCASMR=3.18%, P < 0.001) were higher than that of female (AAPC = 7.03%, AAPCASMR=3.09%, P < 0.001). The PD standardized mortality rates of urban (AAPC = 5.13%, AAPCASMR=1.76%, P < 0.001) and rural (AAPC = 8.40%, AAPCASMR=4.29%, P < 0.001) residents both increased gradually. In the age analysis, the mortality rate increased with age. And the mortality rates of those aged > 85 years was the highest. Considering gender, female aged > 85 years had the fastest mortality trend (annual percentage change [APC] = 5.69%, P < 0.001). Considering urban/rural, rural aged 80-84 years had the fastest mortality trend (APC = 6.68%, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The mortality rate of PD among Chinese residents increased from 2004 to 2021. Male sex, urban residence and age > 85 years were risk factors for PD-related death and should be the primary focus for PD prevention.

Temporal evolution of suicide by levels of rurality and deprivation among Japanese adults aged 20 years or over between 2009 and 2022.

PURPOSE: Previous studies have reported that levels of rurality and deprivation are factors associated with suicide risk. Reports on the association between rurality, deprivation and suicide incidence during the COVID-19 pandemic are scarce. The study aims to investigate how suicide rates evolved in areas with different levels of rurality and deprivation among Japanese adults aged 20 years or older between 2009 and 2022. METHODS: This study used population density in 2020 as an indicator of rurality and per capita prefectural income in 2019 as a proxy for deprivation in Japan's 47 prefectures. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to analyze secular trends in suicide rates by rurality and deprivation. RESULTS: Suicide rates for both men and women at different levels of rurality and deprivation remained roughly parallel during the research period. Suicide rates for men and women at all levels of rurality and deprivation were on a downward trend until around 2019, just before the onset of the pandemic. Following this, suicide rates in women showed a clear upward trend, while the trend in suicide rates for men also changed around 2019, with a slightly increasing or flat trend thereafter. Changes in suicide rates were greater among women and those aged 20-59 years. CONCLUSIONS: In Japan, time trends in suicide rates for both men and women have changed before and after the pandemic, but levels of rurality and deprivation across the 47 prefectures do not appear to have contributed much to these changes.

Gender and Age Trends in HIV Incidence in Turkey between 1990 and 2021: Joinpoint and Age-Period-Cohort Analyses.

Background and Objectives: Despite a global decrease in HIV incidence, recent trends in Türkiye indicate a concerning rise, particularly among younger populations and women. This study investigates the local and regional dynamics influencing these trends using advanced epidemiological methodologies. Material and Methods: Utilizing Age-period-cohort analysis and joinpoint regression, we analysed HIV incidence and prevalence data from the Global Burden of Disease study for Türkiye. These methods allowed for a detailed examination of changes over time, identifying specific age groups and periods with significant shifts in incidence rates. Results: Key findings include a 13.03% increase in annual percentage change among males aged 15-19 and an 11.37% increase among females in the same age group. Additionally, the incidence rates among females have shown a significant rise after 2008. Conclusions: The rising HIV incidence in Türkiye reflects complex socio-economic, cultural, and biological factors, with significant increases among young people and women. Addressing these challenges requires targeted interventions, comprehensive educational programs, and inclusive healthcare services to align with global efforts and commitments. The study underscores the importance of incorporating young people in decision-making processes to effectively combat HIV in Türkiye.

Incidence and trends of hepatic cancer among children and adolescents in the United States from 2000 to 2017: Evidence from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry data.

OBJECTIVE: Primary liver tumors are rare pediatric malignancies. Knowledge of the epidemiology of pediatric liver tumors is limited. This study aims to present the national incidence trends of pediatric liver tumors over 18 years, according to sociodemographic and histological subtype variation. METHODS: The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry was queried from 2000 to 2017 for 1,099 patients between ages 0 and 19 with liver tumors. Age-standardized incidence rates by age, sex, and race/ethnicity were examined among histological subtypes. Annual percentage change (APC) was calculated via joinpoint regression for various sociodemographic and histotype subgroups. RESULTS: An increase of age-adjusted incidence rate of pediatric hepatic cancers was observed between 2000 and 2017 (APC, 1.7% [95% confidence interval or CI: 0.6%-2.8%], p-value = 0.006), which may likely attribute to the increasing incidence of hepatoblastoma and mesenchymal tumors (APC, 2.5% [95% CI: 1.1%-3.8%], p-value = 0.001). The incidence trend of hepatocellular carcinoma remained stable in the study period. The non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander children and adolescents had a higher risk of hepatic tumors (incidence rate ratio or IRR, 1.42 [95% CI: 1.16-1.72], p-value = 0.0007) when compared with the non-Hispanic white subgroup, while a non-Hispanic black child was associated with a lower incidence rate (IRR, 0.64 [95% CI: 0.50-0.80], p-value < 0.0001). Significantly lower hepatic tumor incidence occurred in females than males, with an incidence rate ratio of 0.69 (95% CI: 0.61-0.78; p-value < 0.0001). Hepatic tumor incidence was also significantly lower in those aged 1-4 years (IRR, 0.47 [95% CI: 0.40-0.54]; p-value < 0.001) and 5-19 years (IRR, 0.09 [95% CI: 0.08-0.10]; p-value < 0.001) when compared with the youngest age group aged less than 1 year. These significant differences were also detected for the subgroup of hepatoblastoma and mesenchymal liver tumors but less among hepatocellular carcinomas (all p-values less than 0.0001). CONCLUSION: Continued increasing incidence of pediatric hepatoblastoma and mesenchymal liver tumors was discovered and warranted further investigation. Additional findings include a lower incidence of hepatic cancer among non-Hispanic black individuals and higher incidence of hepatic cancer in non-Hispanic Asian/Pacific Islander, male, and aged 1-4-year children and adolescents.

Trends in the incidence of cirrhosis in global from 1990 to 2019: A joinpoint and age-period-cohort analysis.

Cirrhosis remains a major public health concern globally; the burden of cirrhosis should be further clarified worldwide and helped us to understand the current situation of cirrhosis. In the present study, we estimate DALYs and mortality rates attributable to several major cirrhosis risk factors and use joinpoint and age-period-cohort methods to determine the trends of cirrhosis incidence and deaths in the global population in the 1990-2019 period. Globally, from 1990 to 2019, the incidence of cirrhosis, deaths due to cirrhosis, and cirrhosis DALY cases increased from 1274 (103 , 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 1027.2-1548.5) to 2051.6 (103 , 95% UI: 1661.4-2478.1), 1013 (103 , 95% UI: 948.9-1073.9) to 1472 (103 , 95% UI: 1374.6-1578.7), and 34727.7 (103 , 95% UI: 32383.0-37132.8) to 46189.4 (103 , 95% UI: 43027.1-49551.3), respectively. Hepatitis virus was the most important cirrhosis mortality risk factor. Globally, hepatitis virus infection (HBV+HCV) accounted for more than 45% of the incidence of cirrhosis cases and about 50% of cirrhosis deaths. Importantly, from 1990 to 2019, the proportion of cirrhosis incidence due to HBV decreased from 24.3% to 19.8%, whereas that due to alcohol use increased from 18.7% to 21.3%. Additionally, the proportion of NAFLD-induced cirrhosis incidence increased from 5.5% to 6.6% over the same period. Our findings on the global disease burden of cirrhosis provide a valuable resource for developing targeted prevention strategies.

Incidence and trends of 17 notifiable bacterial infectious diseases in China, 2004-2019.

BACKGROUND: Certain bacterial infectious diseases are categorized as notifiable infectious diseases in China. Understanding the time-varying epidemiology of bacterial infections diseases can provide scientific evidence to inform prevention and control measures. METHODS: Yearly incidence data for all 17 major notifiable bacterial infectious diseases (BIDs) at the province level were obtained from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Reporting Information System in China between 2004 and 2019. Of them 16 BIDs are divided into four categories, respiratory transmitted diseases (RTDs, 6 diseases), direct contact/fecal-oral transmitted diseases (DCFTDs, 3 diseases), blood-borne/sexually transmitted diseases (BSTDs, 2 diseases), and zoonotic and vector-borne diseases (ZVDs, 5 diseases), and neonatal tetanus is excluded in the analysis. We characterized the demographic, temporal, and geographical features of the BIDs and examined their changing trends using a joinpoint regression analysis. RESULTS: During 2004‒2019, 28 779 thousand cases of BIDs were reported, with an annualized incidence rate of 134.00 per 100 000. RTDs were the most commonly reported BIDs, accounting for 57.02% of the cases (16 410 639/28 779 000). Average annual percent changes (AAPC) in incidence were - 1.98% for RTDs, - 11.66% for DCFTDs, 4.74% for BSTDs, and 4.46% for ZVDs. Females had a higher incidence of syphilis than males, and other BIDs were more commonly reported in males. Among 0-5-year-olds, the diseases with the largest increases in incidence were pertussis (15.17% AAPC) and scarlet fever (12.05%). Children and students had the highest incidence rates of scarlet fever, pertussis, meningococcal meningitis, and bacillary dysentery. Northwest China had the highest incidence of RTDs, while South and East China had the highest incidences of BSTDs. Laboratory confirmation of BIDs increased from 43.80 to 64.04% during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: RTDs and DCFTDs decreased from 2004 to 2019 in China, while BSTDs and ZVDs increased during the same period. Great attention should be paid to BSTDs and ZVDs, active surveillance should be strengthened, and timely control measures should be adopted to reduce the incidence.