Predicting Environmental and Ecological Drivers of Human Population Structure.

Landscape, climate, and culture can all structure human populations, but few existing methods are designed to simultaneously disentangle among a large number of variables in explaining genetic patterns. We developed a machine learning method for identifying the variables which best explain migration rates, as measured by the coalescent-based program MAPS that uses shared identical by descent tracts to infer spatial migration across a region of interest. We applied our method to 30 human populations in eastern Africa with high-density single nucleotide polymorphism array data. The remarkable diversity of ethnicities, languages, and environments in this region offers a unique opportunity to explore the variables that shape migration and genetic structure. We explored more than 20 spatial variables relating to landscape, climate, and presence of tsetse flies. The full model explained ∼40% of the variance in migration rate over the past 56 generations. Precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and elevation were the variables with the highest impact. Among the three groups of tsetse flies, the most impactful was fusca which transmits livestock trypanosomiasis. We also tested for adaptation to high elevation among Ethiopian populations. We did not identify well-known genes related to high elevation, but we did find signatures of positive selection related to metabolism and disease. We conclude that the environment has influenced the migration and adaptation of human populations in eastern Africa; the remaining variance in structure is likely due in part to cultural or other factors not captured in our model.

Climate of origin shapes variations in wood anatomical properties of 17 Picea species.

BACKGROUND: Variations in hydraulic conductivity may arise from species-specific differences in the anatomical structure and function of the xylem, reflecting a spectrum of plant strategies along a slow-fast resource economy continuum. Spruce (Picea spp.), a widely distributed and highly adaptable tree species, is crucial in preventing soil erosion and enabling climate regulation. However, a comprehensive understanding of the variability in anatomical traits of stems and their underlying drivers in the Picea genus is currently lacking especially in a common garden. RESULTS: We assessed 19 stem economic properties and hydraulic characteristics of 17 Picea species grown in a common garden in Tianshui, Gansu Province, China. Significant interspecific differences in growth and anatomical characteristics were observed among the species. Specifically, xylem hydraulic conductivity (Ks) and hydraulic diameter exhibited a significant negative correlation with the thickness to span ratio (TSR), cell wall ratio, and tracheid density and a significant positive correlation with fiber length, and size of the radial tracheid. PCA revealed that the first two axes accounted for 64.40% of the variance, with PC1 reflecting the trade-off between hydraulic efficiency and mechanical support and PC2 representing the trade-off between high embolism resistance and strong pit flexibility. Regression analysis and structural equation modelling further confirmed that tracheid size positively influenced Ks, whereas the traits DWT, D_r, and TSR have influenced Ks indirectly. All traits failed to show significant phylogenetic associations. Pearson's correlation analysis demonstrated strong correlations between most traits and longitude, with the notable influence of the mean temperature during the driest quarter, annual precipitation, precipitation during the wettest quarter, and aridity index. CONCLUSIONS: Our results showed that xylem anatomical traits demonstrated considerable variability across phylogenies, consistent with the pattern of parallel sympatric radiation evolution and global diversity in spruce. By integrating the anatomical structure of the stem xylem as well as environmental factors of origin and evolutionary relationships, our findings provide novel insights into the ecological adaptations of the Picea genus.

Adaptive divergence, historical population dynamics, and simulation of suitable distributions for Picea Meyeri and P. Mongolica at the whole-genome level.

The taxonomic classification of Picea meyeri and P. mongolica has long been controversial. To investigate the genetic relatedness, evolutionary history, and population history dynamics of these species, genotyping-by-sequencing (GBS) technology was utilized to acquire whole-genome single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) markers, which were subsequently used to assess population structure, population dynamics, and adaptive differentiation. Phylogenetic and population structural analyses at the genomic level indicated that although the ancestor of P. mongolica was a hybrid of P. meyeri and P. koraiensis, P. mongolica is an independent Picea species. Additionally, P. mongolica is more closely related to P. meyeri than to P. koraiensis, which is consistent with its geographic distribution. There were up to eight instances of interspecific and intraspecific gene flow between P. meyeri and P. mongolica. The P. meyeri and P. mongolica effective population sizes generally decreased, and Maxent modeling revealed that from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the present, their habitat areas decreased initially and then increased. However, under future climate scenarios, the habitat areas of both species were projected to decrease, especially under high-emission scenarios, which would place P. mongolica at risk of extinction and in urgent need of protection. Local adaptation has promoted differentiation between P. meyeri and P. mongolica. Genotype‒environment association analysis revealed 96,543 SNPs associated with environmental factors, mainly related to plant adaptations to moisture and temperature. Selective sweeps revealed that the selected genes among P. meyeri, P. mongolica and P. koraiensis are primarily associated in vascular plants with flowering, fruit development, and stress resistance. This research enhances our understanding of Picea species classification and provides a basis for future genetic improvement and species conservation efforts.

Photosynthetic capacity in middle-aged larch and spruce acclimates independently to experimental warming and elevated CO2.

Photosynthetic acclimation to both warming and elevated CO2 of boreal trees remains a key uncertainty in modelling the response of photosynthesis to future climates. We investigated the impact of increased growth temperature and elevated CO2 on photosynthetic capacity (Vcmax and Jmax) in mature trees of two North American boreal conifers, tamarack and black spruce. We show that Vcmax and Jmax at a standard temperature of 25°C did not change with warming, while Vcmax and Jmax at their thermal optima (Topt) and growth temperature (Tg) increased. Moreover, Vcmax and Jmax at either 25°C, Topt or Tg decreased with elevated CO2. The Jmax/Vcmax ratio decreased with warming when assessed at both Topt and Tg but did not significantly vary at 25°C. The Jmax/Vcmax increased with elevated CO2 at either reference temperature. We found no significant interaction between warming and elevated CO2 on all traits. If this lack of interaction between warming and elevated CO2 on the Vcmax, Jmax and Jmax/Vcmax ratio is a general trend, it would have significant implications for improving photosynthesis representation in vegetation models. However, future research is required to investigate the widespread nature of this response in a larger number of species and biomes.

Temporal and spatial variability of phloem structure in Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica and its link to climate.

Using a unique 8-year data set (2010-2017) of phloem data, we studied the effect of temperature and precipitation on the phloem anatomy (conduit area, widths of ring, early and late phloem) and xylem-ring width in two coexisting temperate tree species, Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica, from three contrasting European temperate forest sites. Histometric analyses were performed on microcores taken from tree stems in autumn. We found high interannual variability and sensitivity of phloem anatomy and xylem-ring widths to precipitation and temperature; however, the responses were species- and site-specific. The contrasting response of xylem and phloem-ring widths of the same tree species to weather conditions was found at the two Slovenian sites generally well supplied with precipitation, while at the driest Czech site, the influence of weather factors on xylem and phloem ring widths was synchronised. Since widths of mean annual xylem and phloem increments were narrowest at the Czech site, this site is suggested to be most restrictive for the radial growth of both species. By influencing the seasonal patterns of xylem and phloem development, water availability appears to be the most important determinant of tissue- and species-specific responses to local weather conditions.

Current and future drought vulnerability for three dominant boreal tree species.

Climate change is projected to increase the frequency and severity of droughts, possibly causing sudden and elevated tree mortality. Better understanding and predictions of boreal forest responses to climate change are needed to efficiently adapt forest management. We used tree-ring width chronologies from the Swedish National Forest Inventory, sampled between 2010 and 2018, and a random forest machine-learning algorithm to identify the tree, stand, and site variables that determine drought damage risk, and to predict their future spatial-temporal evolution. The dataset consisted of 16,455 cores of Norway spruce, Scots pine, and birch trees from all over Sweden. The risk of drought damage was calculated as the probability of growth anomaly occurrence caused by past drought events during 1960-2010. We used the block cross-validation method to compute model predictions for drought damage risk under current climate and climate predicted for 2040-2070 under the RCP.2.6, RCP.4.5, and RCP.8.5 emission scenarios. We found local climatic variables to be the most important predictors, although stand competition also affects drought damage risk. Norway spruce is currently the most susceptible species to drought in southern Sweden. This species currently faces high vulnerability in 28% of the country and future increases in spring temperatures would greatly increase this area to almost half of the total area of Sweden. Warmer annual temperatures will also increase the current forested area where birch suffers from drought, especially in northern and central Sweden. In contrast, for Scots pine, drought damage coincided with cold winter and early-spring temperatures. Consequently, the current area with high drought damage risk would decrease in a future warmer climate for Scots pine. We suggest active selection of tree species, promoting the right species mixtures and thinning to reduce tree competition as promising strategies for adapting boreal forests to future droughts.

Detecting changes in industrial pollution by analyzing heavy metal concentrations in tree-ring wood from Romanian conifer forests.

The impact of air pollution on forests, especially in urban areas, has been increasingly discussed recently. Many pollutants, including heavy metals, are released into the atmosphere from various sources, such as mining, non-ferrous metal processing plants, and fossil fuel combustion. These pollutants can adversely affect not only tree growth but also other species, including humans. This study compared the concentrations of several elements in tree-ring wood from two conifer species (Silver fir, Abies alba; Norway spruce, Picea abies) growing in polluted and unpolluted areas. Two regions in northern Romania (Bicaz and Tarnița) that were subjected to historical pollution changes were selected. Two chemical analyses were used: inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) and X-ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRF). The silver fir trees from the intensively polluted area in the Tarnița region were negatively impacted by industrial pollution: the Mn concentrations were, on average, three times higher in polluted areas than in unpolluted areas (ca. 30 vs. 10 mg kg-1). This finding was consistent for both ICP-MS and XRF analyses. However, in Norway spruce, this difference was found only in the XRF data, which detected Mn concentrations seven times higher in trees from polluted areas than those from unpolluted areas (ca. 700 vs. 100 mg kg-1). In the Tarnița region, Norway spruce accumulated more heavy metals than silver fir, but the most pronounced differences between polluted and unpolluted areas were found in silver fir. The two analytical methods are commonly used to determine metal concentrations in wood, and they complement each other, with ICP-MS having a low detection limit for some elements and XRF having higher detection limits and better accuracy. Each method has its advantages and disadvantages, and the optimal method depends on many factors, such as the type of heavy metal analyzed, its concentration in wood, sample type, cost, analysis time, and sample preparation.

Nutrient allocation patterns of Picea crassifolia on the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

It can provide a basis for decision making for the conservation and sustainable use of forest ecosystems in mountains to understand the stoichiometric properties and nutrient allocation strategies of major tree species. However, the plant nutrient allocation strategies under different environmental gradients in forest systems of arid and semi-arid mountains are not fully understand. Therefore, three typical regions in the Qilian Mountains on the eastern edge of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau were selected based on precipitation and temperature gradients, and the stoichiometric characteristics and nutrient allocation strategies of Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia) of the dominant tree species under different environmental gradients were investigated. The results showed that (1) the stoichiometric characteristics of plant tissues were different in the three regions. (2) The importance of each tissue in the plant nutrient allocation varied in different regions, showing that the plant roots are more important in the warm-wet region, while the plant leaves, branches and trunks are more important in the transition and hot-dry regions. (3) The influencing factors affecting plant nutrient allocation strategies were inconsistent across regions, which showed that plant nutrient allocation strategies in the warm-wet and transition region were mainly influenced by soil factors, while they were more influenced by climatic factors in the hot-dry region. The patterns of plant nutrient allocation strategies and drivers under different environmental gradients could help us better understand the ecological adaptation mechanism and physiological adjustment mechanism of forest ecosystem in mountains.

Fractionation of wood due to industrial chipping: effects and potential for Kraft pulping of European spruce.

The research conducted on kraft cooking of for different chip sizes is often not representative for the industrial process since the chip size fractions were made of high-quality wood without impurities. We evaluated the effects and the potential of cooking non ideal spruce chip fractions after industrial chipping and screening. The chips were classified according to SCAN 40:01, and the respective fractions were cooked under the identical conditions to mimic the effect of a joint cooking in the industrial digester. For the undersized chips we found higher bark content, a lower screened yield, a higher Kappa number, lower fiber length and lower tensile strength. For the oversized chips, the fiber length and tensile index were also considerably lower. A lower wood quality due to high knot content in the larger fractions was found to be the reason for that. Based on the data obtained from the experiments and literature, different process options for increased yield and reduced chemical consumption are discussed, e.g., separate cooking of different chip fractions. Improved chip screening seems to be the process improvement with lowest costs and highest impact.

A pilot study of antimicrobial effects and ototoxicity of a Norway spruce (Picea abies) resin-based canine otic rinse product.

BACKGROUND: Norway spruce (Picea abies) resin-based products are used in human medicine. A resin-based otic rinse also could be useful in supportive care of canine otitis externa (COE), yet information on its antimicrobial effect against canine pathogens or ototoxicity is lacking. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the antimicrobial properties and ototoxicity of a commercial resin-based otic product. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Antimicrobial effect was evaluated using a standardised challenge test on Staphylococcus pseudintermedius, Corynebacterium auriscanis, Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Escherichia coli, Malassezia pachydermatis, and Streptococcus halichoeri strains to measure reduction in growth after 24 h exposure to the product. Effect on cell morphology was investigated by exposing S. pseudintermedius, C. auriscanis, P. aeruginosa and M. pachydermatis to the product in 20% and 100% (v/v) concentrations for 6, 24 and 48 h, and evaluating cells by transmission (TEM) and scanning (SEM) electron microscopy. An in vitro microbial kill-rate assay also was performed. Auditory brain stem response test, clinical evaluation and postmortem histological evaluation of ear canals were undertaken on experimental guinea pigs treated with the test product or saline controls. RESULTS: The product showed >log 5 growth reduction for all strains in the challenge test. TEM and SEM images showed clear changes in the cells' inner structures and deterioration of cells, and 100% (v/v) test product exposure induced microbial killing in 1-2 h. Ototoxicity was not detected in guinea pigs. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: The product may be an option in supportive care of COE because of antimicrobial effects and lack of ototoxic properties in a guinea pig model.

Biofiltration of n-butyl acetate with three packing material mixtures, with and without biochar.

Two cost-effective packing materials were used for n-butyl acetate removal in lab-scale biofilters, namely waste spruce root wood chips and biochar obtained as a byproduct from a wood gasifier. Three biofilters packed with spruce root wood chips: without biochar (SRWC), a similar one with 10% of biochar (SRWC-B) and that with 10% of biochar impregnated with a nitrogen fertilizer (SRWC-IB) showed similar yet differing maximum elimination capacities of 206 ± 27, 275 ± 21 and 294 ± 20 g m-3 h-1, respectively, enabling high pollutant removal efficiency (>95% at moderate loads) and stable performance. The original biochar adsorption capacity was high (208 ± 6 mgtoluene g-1), but near 70% of it was lost after a 300-day biofilter operation. By contrast, the exposed impregnated biochar drastically increased its adsorption capacity in 300 days (149 ± 7 vs. 17 ± 5 mgtoluene g-1). Colony forming unit (CFU) and microscopic analyses revealed significant packing material colonization by microorganisms and grazing fauna in all three biofilters with an acceptable pressure drop, up to 1020 Pa m-1, at the end of biofilter operation. Despite a higher price (14 vs. 123 €m-3), the application of the best performing SRWC-IB packing can reduce the total investment costs by 9% due to biofilter volume reduction.

Spatial and remote sensing monitoring shows the end of the bark beetle outbreak on Belgian and north-eastern France Norway spruce (Picea abies) stands.

In 2022, Europe emerged from eight of the hottest years on record, leading to significant spruce mortality across Europe. The particularly dry weather conditions of 2018 triggered an outbreak of bark beetles (Ips typographus), causing the loss of thousands of hectares of Norway spruce stands, including in Wallonia and North-eastern France. A methodology for detecting the health status of spruce was developed based on a dense time series of satellite imagery (Sentinel-2). The time series of satellite images allowed the modelling of the spectral response of healthy spruce forests over the seasons: a decrease in photosynthetic activity of the forest canopy causes deviations from this normal seasonal vegetation index trajectory. These anomalies are caused by a bark beetle attack and are detected automatically. The method leads in the production of an annual spruce health map of Wallonia and Grand-Est. The goal of this paper is to assess the damage caused by bark beetle using the resulting spruce health maps. A second objective was to compare the influence of basic variables on the mortality of spruce trees in these two regions. Lasted 6 years (2017-2022), bark beetle has destroyed 12.2% (23,674 ha) of the spruce area in Wallonia and Grand-Est of France. This study area is composed of three bioclimatic areas: Plains, Ardennes and Vosges, which have not been equally affected by bark beetle attacks. The plains were the most affected, with 50% of spruce forests destroyed, followed by the Ardennes, which lost 11.3% of its spruce stands. The Vosges was the least affected bioclimatic area, with 5.6% of spruce stands lost. For the most problematic sites, Norway spruce forestry should no longer be considered.

Spatial characteristics of nutrient allocation for Picea crassifolia in soil and plants on the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.

BACKGROUND: Understanding the stoichiometric characteristics and nutrient allocation strategies of dominant tree species in montane forest systems can provide a basis for decision-making in relation to montane system management. Therefore, according to precipitation and temperature gradients, we selected three typical areas in the Qilian Mountains on the eastern margin of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau to analyse the spatial relations of plant-soil stoichiometric characteristics and nutrient allocation strategies of plant tissues for Qinghai spruce (Picea crassifolia) along different environmental gradients. RESULTS: 1) The plant and soil stoichiometric characteristics had similar spatial patterns. The C content of plants and soils tended to decrease with increasing latitude, and the N and P contents and the N:P ratio tended to increase with increasing latitude. 2) The stoichiometric characteristics of the plant tissues also interacted with each other and showed synergistic trade-offs. Nutrient allocation in the eastern section of the Qilian Mountains was similar to that in the western section, while more N and P in the plant stems were allocated to maintain plant growth in the relatively arid western Sect. 3) The nutrient allocation strategies in the plant tissues were mainly regulated by soil and climate. CONCLUSIONS: Information on plant-soil stoichiometric characteristics along different gradients can help us better understand the nutrient patterns and dynamics of forest ecosystems under arid and semiarid conditions at a wide geographic scale from the perspective of plant nutrient partitioning.

Analysis of polycomb repressive complex 2 (PRC2) subunits in Picea abies with a focus on embryo development.

BACKGROUND: Conserved polycomb repressive complex 2 (PRC2) mediates H3K27me3 to direct transcriptional repression and has a key role in cell fate determination and cell differentiation in both animals and plants. PRC2 subunits have undergone independent multiplication and functional divergence in higher plants. However, relevant information is still absent in gymnosperms. RESULTS: To launch gymnosperm PRC2 research, we identified and cloned the PRC2 core component genes in the conifer model species Picea abies, including one Esc/FIE homolog PaFIE, two p55/MSI homologs PaMSI1a and PaMSI1b, two E(z) homologs PaKMT6A2 and PaKMT6A4, a Su(z)12 homolog PaEMF2 and a PaEMF2-like fragment. Phylogenetic and protein domain analyses were conducted. The Esc/FIE homologs were highly conserved in the land plant, except the monocots. The other gymnospermous PRC2 subunits underwent independent evolution with angiospermous species to different extents. The relative transcript levels of these genes were measured in endosperm and zygotic and somatic embryos at different developmental stages. The obtained results proposed the involvement of PaMSI1b and PaKMT6A4 in embryogenesis and PaKMT6A2 and PaEMF2 in the transition from embryos to seedlings. The PaEMF2-like fragment was predominantly expressed in the endosperm but not in the embryo. In addition, immunohistochemistry assay showed that H3K27me3 deposits were generally enriched at meristem regions during seed development in P. abies. CONCLUSIONS: This study reports the first characterization of the PRC2 core component genes in the coniferous species P. abies. Our work may enable a deeper understanding of the cell reprogramming process during seed and embryo development and may guide further research on embryonic potential and development in conifers.

PhenoCaB: a new phenological model based on carbon balance in boreal conifers.

Traditional phenological models use chilling and thermal forcing (temperature sum or degree-days) to predict budbreak. Because of the heightening impact of climate and other related biotic or abiotic stressors, a model with greater biological support is needed to better predict budbreak. Here, we present an original mechanistic model based on the physiological processes taking place before and during budbreak of conifers. As a general principle, we assume that phenology is driven by the carbon status of the plant, which is closely related to environmental variables and the annual cycle of dormancy-activity. The carbon balance of a branch was modelled from autumn to winter with cold acclimation and dormancy and from winter to spring when deacclimation and growth resumption occur. After being calibrated in a field experiment, the model was validated across a large area (> 34 000 km2 ), covering multiple conifers stands in Québec (Canada) and across heated plots for the SPRUCE experiment in Minnesota (USA). The model accurately predicted the observed dates of budbreak in both Québec (±3.98 d) and Minnesota (±7.98 d). The site-independent calibration provides interesting insights on the physiological mechanisms underlying the dynamics of dormancy break and the resumption of vegetative growth in spring.

Addressing a century-old hypothesis - do pioneer beetles of Ips typographus use volatile cues to find suitable host trees?

Global warming and more frequent climate extremes have caused bark beetle outbreaks of unprecedented scale of these insects in many conifer forests world-wide. Conifers that have been weakened by drought and heat or damaged by storms are highly susceptible to bark beetle infestation. A large proportion of trees with impaired defences provides good conditions for beetle population build-up of beetles, but mechanisms driving host search of pioneer beetles are still uncertain in several species, including the Eurasian spruce bark beetle Ips typographus. Despite a two-century-long history of bark beetle research, we still lack a sufficient understanding of interactions between I. typographus and its host Norway spruce (Picea abies) to forecast future disturbance regimes and forest dynamics. Depending on the scale (habitat or patch) and beetle population state (endemic or epidemic), host selection is likely driven by a combination of pre and postlanding cues, including visual selection or olfactory detection (kairomones). Here, we discuss primary attraction mechanisms and how volatile emission profiles of Norway spruce may provide cues on tree vitality and suitability for attacks by I. typographus, in particular during the endemic phase. We identify several crucial knowledge gaps and provide a research agenda addressing the experimental challenges of such investigations.

Transcriptome features of stone cell development in weevil-resistant and susceptible Sitka spruce.

Stone cells are a specialized, highly lignified cell type found in both angiosperms and gymnosperms. In conifers, abundance of stone cells in the cortex provides a robust constitutive physical defense against stem feeding insects. Stone cells are a major insect-resistance trait in Sitka spruce (Picea sitchensis), occurring in dense clusters in apical shoots of trees resistant (R) to spruce weevil (Pissodes strobi) but being rare in susceptible (S) trees. To learn more about molecular mechanisms of stone cell formation in conifers, we used laser microdissection and RNA sequencing to develop cell-type-specific transcriptomes of developing stone cells from R and S trees. Using light, immunohistochemical, and fluorescence microscopy, we also visualized the deposition of cellulose, xylan, and lignin associated with stone cell development. A total of 1293 genes were differentially expressed at higher levels in developing stone cells relative to cortical parenchyma. Genes with potential roles in stone cell secondary cell wall formation (SCW) were identified and their expression evaluated over a time course of stone cell formation in R and S trees. The expression of several transcriptional regulators was associated with stone cell formation, including a NAC family transcription factor and several genes annotated as MYB transcription factors with known roles in SCW formation.

Transcriptome-based analyses of adaptive divergence between two closely related spruce species on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau and adjacent regions.

Speciation among populations connected by gene flow is driven by adaptation to different environments, but underlying gene-environment associations remain largely unknown. Here, 162 individuals from 32 populations were sampled to obtain 191,648 independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) across the genomes of two closely related spruce species, Picea asperata and Picea crassifolia, which occur on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and in surrounding regions. Using the SNP data set, genotype-environment associations and demographic modelling were used to examine local adaptation and genetic divergence between these two species. While morphologically similar, the two Picea species were genetically differentiated in multiple analyses. These species diverged despite continuous gene flow, and their initial divergence was dated back to the late Quaternary. The effective population sizes of both species have expanded since their divergence, as confirmed by niche distribution simulations. A total of 6365 genes were associated with the tested environmental variables; of these, 41 were positively selected in P. asperata and were mainly associated with temperature, while 83 were positively selected in P. crassifolia and were primarily associated with precipitation. These results deepen our understanding of the adaptive divergence and demographic histories of these two spruce species and highlight the importance of genomic data in deciphering the environmental selection underlying Quaternary interspecific divergence.

Picturing local adaptation: Spectral and structural traits from drone remote sensing reveal clinal responses to climate transfer in common-garden trials of interior spruce (Picea engelmannii × glauca).

Common-garden trials of forest trees provide phenotype data used to assess growth and local adaptation; this information is foundational to tree breeding programs, genecology, and gene conservation. As jurisdictions consider assisted migration strategies to match populations to suitable climates, in situ progeny and provenance trials provide experimental evidence of adaptive responses to climate change. We used drone technology, multispectral imaging, and digital aerial photogrammetry to quantify spectral traits related to stress, photosynthesis, and carotenoids, and structural traits describing crown height, size, and complexity at six climatically disparate common-garden trials of interior spruce (Picea engelmannii × glauca) in western Canada. Through principal component analysis, we identified key components of climate related to temperature, moisture, and elevational gradients. Phenotypic clines in remotely sensed traits were analyzed as trait correlations with provenance climate transfer distances along principal components (PCs). We used traits showing clinal variation to model best linear unbiased predictions for tree height (R2 = .98-.99, root mean square error [RMSE] = 0.06-0.10 m) and diameter at breast height (DBH, R2 = .71-.97, RMSE = 2.57-3.80 mm) and generated multivariate climate transfer functions with the model predictions. Significant (p < .05) clines were present for spectral traits at all sites along all PCs. Spectral traits showed stronger clinal variation than structural traits along temperature and elevational gradients and along moisture gradients at wet, coastal sites, but not at dry, interior sites. Spectral traits may capture patterns of local adaptation to temperature and montane growing seasons which are distinct from moisture-limited patterns in stem growth. This work demonstrates that multispectral indices improve the assessment of local adaptation and that spectral and structural traits from drone remote sensing produce reliable proxies for ground-measured height and DBH. This phenotyping framework contributes to the analysis of common-garden trials towards a mechanistic understanding of local adaptation to climate.

Across-model spread and shrinking in predicting peatland carbon dynamics under global change.

Large across-model spread in simulating land carbon (C) dynamics has been ubiquitously demonstrated in model intercomparison projects (MIPs), and became a major impediment in advancing climate change prediction. Thus, it is imperative to identify underlying sources of the spread. Here, we used a novel matrix approach to analytically pin down the sources of across-model spread in transient peatland C dynamics in response to a factorial combination of two atmospheric CO2 levels and five temperature levels. We developed a matrix-based MIP by converting the C cycle module of eight land models (i.e., TEM, CENTURY4, DALEC2, TECO, FBDC, CASA, CLM4.5 and ORCHIDEE) into eight matrix models. While the model average of ecosystem C storage was comparable to the measurement, the simulation differed largely among models, mainly due to inter-model difference in baseline C residence time. Models generally overestimated net ecosystem production (NEP), with a large spread that was mainly attributed to inter-model difference in environmental scalar. Based on the sources of spreads identified, we sequentially standardized model parameters to shrink simulated ecosystem C storage and NEP to almost none. Models generally captured the observed negative response of NEP to warming, but differed largely in the magnitude of response, due to differences in baseline C residence time and temperature sensitivity of decomposition. While there was a lack of response of NEP to elevated CO2 (eCO2 ) concentrations in the measurements, simulated NEP responded positively to eCO2 concentrations in most models, due to the positive responses of simulated net primary production. Our study used one case study in Minnesota peatland to demonstrate that the sources of across-model spreads in simulating transient C dynamics can be precisely traced to model structures and parameters, regardless of their complexity, given the protocol that all the matrix models were driven by the same gross primary production and environmental variables.