Integrating Evidence to Guide Use of Biologics and Small Molecules for Inflammatory Bowel Diseases.

Advances in science have led to the development of multiple biologics and small molecules for the treatment of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBDs). This growth in advanced medical therapies has been accompanied by an increase in methodological innovation to study and compare therapies. Guidelines provide an evidence-based approach to integrating therapies into routine practice, but they are often unable to provide timely recommendations as new therapies come to market, and they have limited incorporation of real-world evidence when making recommendations. This limits the scope and usability of guidelines, and a gap remains in defining how best to position and integrate advanced medical therapies for IBD. In this review, we provide a framework for clinicians and researchers to understand key differences in sources of evidence, how different methodologies are applied to study the comparative effectiveness of advanced medical therapies in IBD, and considerations for how these sources of evidence can be used to better integrate current guideline recommendations. Over time, we anticipate this framework will allow for a transition to living guidelines and/or practice recommendations.

Comparative Effectiveness and Cost-Effectiveness of Colorectal Cancer Screening With Blood-Based Biomarkers (Liquid Biopsy) vs Fecal Tests or Colonoscopy.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is highly effective but underused. Blood-based biomarkers (liquid biopsy) could improve screening participation. METHODS: Using our established Markov model, screening every 3 years with a blood-based test that meets minimum Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services' thresholds (CMSmin) (CRC sensitivity 74%, specificity 90%) was compared with established alternatives. Test attributes were varied in sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: CMSmin reduced CRC incidence by 40% and CRC mortality by 52% vs no screening. These reductions were less profound than the 68%-79% and 73%-81%, respectively, achieved with multi-target stool DNA (Cologuard; Exact Sciences) every 3 years, annual fecal immunochemical testing (FIT), or colonoscopy every 10 years. Assuming the same cost as multi-target stool DNA, CMSmin cost $28,500/quality-adjusted life-year gained vs no screening, but FIT, colonoscopy, and multi-target stool DNA were less costly and more effective. CMSmin would match FIT's clinical outcomes if it achieved 1.4- to 1.8-fold FIT's participation rate. Advanced precancerous lesion (APL) sensitivity was a key determinant of a test's effectiveness. A paradigm-changing blood-based test (sensitivity >90% for CRC and 80% for APL; 90% specificity; cost ≤$120-$140) would be cost-effective vs FIT at comparable participation. CONCLUSIONS: CMSmin could contribute to CRC control by achieving screening in those who will not use established methods. Substituting blood-based testing for established effective CRC screening methods will require higher CRC and APL sensitivities that deliver programmatic benefits matching those of FIT. High APL sensitivity, which can result in CRC prevention, should be a top priority for screening test developers. APL detection should not be penalized by a definition of test specificity that focuses on CRC only.

Pulmonary arterial hypertension treatment: an individual participant data network meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Effective therapies that target three main signalling pathways are approved to treat pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH). However, there are few large patient-level studies that compare the effectiveness of these pathways. The aim of this analysis was to compare the effectiveness of the treatment pathways in PAH and to assess treatment heterogeneity. METHODS: A network meta-analysis was performed using individual participant data of 6811 PAH patients from 20 Phase III randomized clinical trials of therapy for PAH that were submitted to the US Food and Drug Administration. Individual drugs were grouped by the following treatment pathways: endothelin, nitric oxide, and prostacyclin pathways. RESULTS: The mean (±standard deviation) age of the sample was 49.2 (±15.4) years; 78.4% were female, 59.7% had idiopathic PAH, and 36.5% were on background PAH therapy. After covariate adjustment, targeting the endothelin + nitric oxide pathway {ß: 43.7 m [95% confidence interval (CI): 32.9, 54.4]}, nitric oxide pathway [ß: 29.4 m (95% CI: 22.6, 36.3)], endothelin pathway [ß: 25.3 m (95% CI: 19.8, 30.8)], and prostacyclin pathway [oral/inhaled ß: 19.1 m (95% CI: 14.2, 24.0), intravenous/subcutaneous ß: 24.4 m (95% CI: 15.1, 33.7)] significantly increased 6 min walk distance at 12 or 16 weeks compared with placebo. Treatments also significantly reduced the likelihood of having clinical worsening events. There was significant heterogeneity of treatment effects by age, body mass index, hypertension, diabetes, and coronary artery disease. CONCLUSIONS: Drugs targeting the three traditional treatment pathways significantly improve outcomes in PAH, with significant treatment heterogeneity in patients with some comorbidities. Randomized clinical trials are warranted to identify the most effective treatment strategies in a personalized approach.

Evaluating recommendation-based dietary and physical activity strategies for prostate cancer prevention: a target trial emulation in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study.

The 2018 World Cancer Research Fund/American Institute for Cancer Research recommends sustained strategies of physical activity and diet for cancer prevention, but evidence for long-term prostate cancer risk is limited. Using observational data from 27,859 men in the Health Professionals Follow-up Study, we emulated a target trial of recommendation-based physical activity and dietary strategies and 26-year risks of prostate cancer, adjusting for risk factors via the parametric g-formula. Compared with no intervention, limiting sugar-sweetened beverages showed a 0.4% (0.0-0.9%) lower risk of lethal (metastatic or fatal) disease and 0.5% (0.1-0.9%) lower risk of fatal disease. Restricting consumption of processed foods showed a 0.4-0.9% higher risk of all prostate cancer outcomes. Estimated risk differences for clinically significant disease were close to null for strategies involving fruits and non-starchy vegetables, whole grains and legumes, red meat, and processed meat, as well as under a joint strategy of physical activity and diet. Compared with a "low adherence" strategy, maintaining recommended physical activity levels showed a 0.4% (0.1-0.8%) lower risk of lethal and 0.5% (0.2-0.8%) lower risk of fatal disease. Adhering to specific components of current physical activity and dietary recommendations may help to prevent lethal and fatal prostate cancer over 26 years.

Antipsychotic drugs in first-episode psychosis: a target trial emulation in the FEP-CAUSAL Collaboration.

Good adherence to antipsychotic therapy helps prevent relapses in first-episode psychosis (FEP). We used data from the FEP-CAUSAL Collaboration, an international consortium of observational cohorts, to emulate a target trial comparing antipsychotics, with treatment discontinuation as the primary outcome. Other outcomes included all-cause hospitalization. We benchmarked our results to estimates from the European First Episode Schizophrenia Trial, a randomized trial conducted in the 2000s. We included 1097 patients with a psychotic disorder and less than 2 years since psychosis onset. Inverse-probability weighting was used to control for confounding. The estimated 12-month risks of discontinuation for aripiprazole, first-generation agents, olanzapine, paliperidone, quetiapine, and risperidone were 61.5% (95% CI, 52.5-70.6), 73.5% (95% CI, 60.5-84.9), 76.8% (95% CI, 67.2-85.3), 58.4% (95% CI, 40.4-77.4), 76.5% (95% CI, 62.1-88.5), and 74.4% (95% CI, 67.0-81.2), respectively. Compared with aripiprazole, the 12-month risk differences were -15.3% (95% CI, -30.0 to 0.0) for olanzapine, -12.8% (95% CI, -25.7 to -1.0) for risperidone, and 3.0% (95% CI, -21.5 to 30.8) for paliperidone. The 12-month risks of hospitalization were similar between agents. Our estimates support use of aripiprazole and paliperidone as first-line therapies for FEP. Benchmarking yielded similar results for discontinuation and absolute risks of hospitalization as in the original trial, suggesting that data from the FEP-CAUSAL Collaboration sufficed to remove confounding for these clinical questions. This article is part of a Special Collection on Mental Health.

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Systemic Heparin During Arteriovenous Fistula Creation by Emulating a Target Trial.

Most of the 800,000 people living with end-stage kidney disease in the United States rely on a functioning vascular access to provide life-sustaining hemodialysis, yet one-third of arteriovenous fistulas experience early failures. Determining the safety and effectiveness of systemic heparin during fistula creation could improve the quality and quantity of life for these vulnerable patients. In this paper, a pragmatic randomized trial was emulated to assess the effect of systemic heparin administration (vs. none) during radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula creation on early bleeding and thrombosis using data from two international multicenter randomized trials performed between 2014 and 2019. Marginal risks were estimated using inverse probability weighted parametric survival analysis and confidence intervals were generated with bootstrapping. A total of 914 patients were enrolled and 61% received systemic heparin; median (IQR) age was 58 (49, 67) years and 45% were on hemodialysis at enrollment. No difference in the risk of bleeding events was observed, with a risk difference (95% CI) at 14 days of -0.1% (-1.6, 1.4). The risk of access thrombosis was lower in the heparin group, with a risk of 3.7% (2.6, 4.8) after heparin and 5.3% (3.4, 7.4) without heparin at 14 days (risk ratio 0.72, 95% CI 0.50, 0.98).

Effect of BMI and hemoglobin A1c on survival of veterans with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer treated with abiraterone or enzalutamide.

BACKGROUND: Abiraterone acetate and enzalutamide are two common therapies for metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) that have shown improved overall survival (OS). The drugs have different mechanisms of action with limited comparative trials to evaluate treatment in patients with comorbidities such as obesity and diabetes. This is important since abiraterone requires the co-administration of prednisone. We assessed the relationship between body mass index (BMI), hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), treatment, and survival in mCRPC. METHODS: Veterans treated with abiraterone or enzalutamide within the Veterans Health Administration between September 10, 2014 and June 2, 2017 with BMI and HbA1c were identified. Additional variables included age, baseline prostate-specific antigen at first treatment for mCRPC, race, and the Charlson comorbidity index. Differences in survival were compared using the Kaplan-Meier method. Cox proportional hazards regression modeling was used to assess the association between initial treatment, BMI, and HbA1c while adjusting for confounding variables. RESULTS: A total of 5231 patients were identified with a mean age of 75.2 years and 1241 (23.7%) were of black race. BMI was associated with OS with longest median survival of 29.8 months in BMI ≥ 30 (n = 1903), 23.9 months in BMI 25-30 (n = 1879), 15.9 months in BMI 18.5-25 (n = 1336), and 9.2 months in BMI < 18.5 (n = 113, p < 0.001). In a multivariable model compared to normal BMI, increased mortality was observed in BMI < 18.5 (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.583, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.29-1.94) and a decreased mortality in BMI 25-30 (aHR = 0.751, 95% CI: 0.69-0.81) and BMI > 30 (aHR = 0.644, 95% CI: 0.59-0.70). In 3761 patients with BMI > 25, there was longer OS in patients treated with enzalutamide (28.4 months, n = 1615) compared to abiraterone (25.8 months, n = 2146, p = 0.002). In 1470 patients with BMI < 25, there was no difference in OS between patients treated with enzalutamide (16.0 months, n = 597, p = 0.513) or abiraterone (16.1 months, n = 873). In 1333 veterans with HbA1c ≥ 6.5%, initial prescription of enzalutamide was associated with longer OS compared with abiraterone (24.4 vs. 20.5 months, p = 0.0005). In 2088 patients with HbA1c < 6.5%, there was no difference in OS in patients who were initially prescribed enzalutamide versus abiraterone (25.7 vs. 23.5 months, p = 0.334). CONCLUSIONS: In veterans with mCRPC, increased BMI was associated with longer survival. Veterans with BMI > 25 had longer survival with enzalutamide compared to abiraterone. In patients with HbA1c ≥ 6.5%, enzalutamide was associated with longer survival compared to abiraterone. These results may facilitate prognostication of survival and improve treatment selection based on patient comorbidities.

Project Baby Bear: Rapid precision care incorporating rWGS in 5 California children's hospitals demonstrates improved clinical outcomes and reduced costs of care.

Genetic disorders are a leading contributor to mortality in neonatal and pediatric intensive care units (ICUs). Rapid whole-genome sequencing (rWGS)-based rapid precision medicine (RPM) is an intervention that has demonstrated improved clinical outcomes and reduced costs of care. However, the feasibility of broad clinical deployment has not been established. The objective of this study was to implement RPM based on rWGS and evaluate the clinical and economic impact of this implementation as a first line diagnostic test in the California Medicaid (Medi-Cal) program. Project Baby Bear was a payor funded, prospective, real-world quality improvement project in the regional ICUs of five tertiary care children's hospitals. Participation was limited to acutely ill Medi-Cal beneficiaries who were admitted November 2018 to May 2020, were <1 year old and within one week of hospitalization, or had just developed an abnormal response to therapy. The whole cohort received RPM. There were two prespecified primary outcomes-changes in medical care reported by physicians and changes in the cost of care. The majority of infants were from underserved populations. Of 184 infants enrolled, 74 (40%) received a diagnosis by rWGS that explained their admission in a median time of 3 days. In 58 (32%) affected individuals, rWGS led to changes in medical care. Testing and precision medicine cost $1.7 million and led to $2.2-2.9 million cost savings. rWGS-based RPM had clinical utility and reduced net health care expenditures for infants in regional ICUs. rWGS should be considered early in ICU admission when the underlying etiology is unclear.

Real-world comparative effectiveness of venetoclax-obinutuzumab versus Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitors for frontline chronic lymphocytic leukaemia.

Real-world evidence comparing clinical outcomes between venetoclax and Bruton tyrosine kinase inhibitors (BTKis) in patients with frontline (1 L) chronic lymphocytic leukaemia (CLL) is lacking. We compared treatment effectiveness of 1 L venetoclax plus obinutuzumab (VenO) versus BTKi-based regimens. This retrospective observational study using Optum Clinformatics Data Mart® included adult patients with CLL (≥2 outpatient or ≥1 inpatient claim) who received VenO or BTKi-based regimens in 1 L (1/2019-9/2022). Baseline characteristics were balanced using stabilised inverse probability weighting. Outcomes included duration of therapy (DoT), persistence, time to next treatment or death (TTNT-D), and time off-treatment. Among 1506 eligible patients (VenO: 203; BTKi: 1303), the median follow-up duration was 12.6 (VenO) and 16.2 months (BTKi). Median DoT for VenO was 12.3 months; persistence remained higher in VenO versus BTKi through expected 1 L fixed treatment duration. Median TTNT-D was not reached for VenO; however, more VenO- versus BTKi-treated patients had not switched therapies/experienced death through Month 12 (87.1% vs. 75.3%). Among patients that discontinued, median time to discontinuation was 11.7 vs. 5.9 months for VenO versus BTKi and median time off-treatment was 11.3 vs. 4.3 months. In this real-world study, VenO was associated with better effectiveness outcomes than BTKi-based regimens in 1 L CLL.

Impact of Treatment Response on Risk of Serious Infections in Patients With Crohn's Disease: Secondary Analysis of the PYRAMID Registry.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Traditional risk factors for serious infections with advanced therapies in patients with Crohn's disease (CD) have been assessed at baseline before starting therapy. We evaluated the impact of treatment response on the risk of serious infections in adalimumab-treated patients with CD through secondary analysis of the PYRAMID registry (NCT00524537). METHODS: We included patients with CD who initiated adalimumab and classified them as treatment responders (achieved steroid-free clinical remission based on patient-reported outcomes) vs nonresponders (not in steroid-free clinical remission) at 6 months after treatment initiation (landmark). We compared the risk of serious infections between responders vs nonresponders between 6 and 36 months after treatment initiation through stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: Of 1515 adalimumab-treated patients, 763 (50.4%) were classified as responders at 6 months (37 ± 13 y; 56% female; disease duration, 9.5 ± 8.5 y). Compared with nonresponders, responders were less likely to have moderate to severe symptoms (55.6% vs 33%), or require steroids (45.5% vs 17.3%) or opiates (6.6% vs 1.3%) at baseline, without any differences in disease location, perianal disease, and prior CD complications. During follow-up evaluation, using stabilized inverse probability of treatment weighting, responders were 34% less likely to experience serious infections compared with nonresponders (hazard ratio, 0.66; 95% CI, 0.46-0.96). Risk of gastrointestinal and extraintestinal infections was lower in responders vs nonresponders. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with CD who respond to adalimumab have a lower risk of developing serious infections compared with nonresponders. These findings underscore that initiation of advanced therapy for CD may lower the risk of serious infections through effective disease control and avoidance of corticosteroids.

Comparison of mortality and amputation after lower extremity bypass versus peripheral vascular intervention in patients with chronic limb-threatening ischemia and comorbid chronic kidney disease.

OBJECTIVE: Comorbid chronic kidney disease (CKD) is associated with worse outcomes for patients with chronic limb-threatening ischemia (CLTI). However, comparative effectiveness data are limited for lower extremity bypass (LEB) vs peripheral vascular intervention (PVI) in patients with CLTI and CKD. We aimed to evaluate (1) 30-day all-cause mortality and amputation and (2) 5-year all-cause mortality and amputation for LEB vs PVI in patients with comorbid CKD. METHODS: Individuals who underwent LEB and PVI were queried from the Vascular Quality Initiative with Medicare claims-linked outcomes data. Propensity scores were calculated using 13 variables, and a 1:1 matching method was used. The mortality risk at 30 days and 5 years in LEB vs PVI by CKD was assessed using Kaplan-Meier and Cox proportional hazards models, with interaction terms added for CKD. For amputation, cumulative incidence functions and Fine-Gray models were used to account for the competing risk of death, with interaction terms for CKD added. RESULTS: Of 4084 patients (2042 per group), the mean age was 71.0 ± 10.8 years, and 69.0% were male. Irrespective of CKD status, 30-day mortality (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.94, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.63-1.42, P = .78) was similar for LEB vs PVI, but LEB was associated with a lower risk of 30-day amputation (sub-HR [sHR]: 0.66, 95% CI: 0.44-0.97, P = .04). CKD status, however, did not modify these results. Similarly, LEB vs PVI was associated with a lower risk of 5-year mortality (HR: 0.79, 95% CI: 0.71-0.88, P < .001) but no difference in 5-year amputation (sHR: 1.03, 95% CI: 0.89-1.20, P = .67). CKD status did not modify these results. CONCLUSIONS: Regardless of CKD status, patients had a lower risk of 5-year all-cause mortality and 30-day amputation with LEB vs PVI. Results may help inform preference-sensitive treatment decisions on LEB vs PVI for patients with CLTI and CKD, who may commonly be deemed too high risk for surgery.

Comparative Effectiveness of Patient-Driven versus Standardized Diabetes Shared Medical Appointments: A Pragmatic Cluster Randomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes self-management education and support can be effectively and efficiently delivered in primary care in the form of shared medical appointments (SMAs). Comparative effectiveness of SMA delivery features such as topic choice, multi-disciplinary care teams, and peer mentor involvement is not known. OBJECTIVE: To compare effects of standardized and patient-driven models of diabetes SMAs on patient-level diabetes outcomes. DESIGN: Pragmatic cluster randomized trial. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 1060 adults with type 2 diabetes in 22 primary care practices. INTERVENTIONS: Practice personnel delivered the 6-session Targeted Training in Illness Management (TTIM) curriculum using either standardized (set content delivered by a health educator) or patient-driven SMAs (patient-selected topic order delivered by health educators, behavioral health providers [BHPs], and peer mentors). MAIN MEASURES: Outcomes included self-reported diabetes distress and diabetes self-care behaviors from baseline and follow-up surveys (assessed at 1st and final SMA session), and HbA1c, BMI, and blood pressure from electronic health records. Analyses used descriptive statistics, linear regression, and linear mixed models. KEY RESULTS: Both standardized and patient-driven SMAs effectively improved diabetes distress, self-care behaviors, BMI (- 0.29 on average), and HbA1c (- 0.45% (mmol/mol) on average, 8.3 to 7.8%). Controlling for covariates, there was a small, significant effect of condition on overall diabetes distress in favor of standardized SMAs (F(1,841) = 4.3, p = .04), attributable to significant effects of condition on emotion and regimen distress subscales. There was a small, significant effect of condition on diastolic blood pressure in favor of standardized SMAs (F(1,5199) = 4.50, p = .03). There were no other differences between conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Both SMA models using the TTIM curriculum yielded significant improvement in diabetes distress, self-care, and HbA1c. Patient-driven diabetes SMAs involving BHPs and peer mentors and topic selection did not lead to better clinical or patient-reported outcomes than standardized diabetes SMAs facilitated by a health educator following a set topic order. NIH TRIAL REGISTRY NUMBER: NCT03590041.

Assessing expectancy and suggestibility in a trial of escitalopram v. psilocybin for depression.

BACKGROUND: To investigate the association between pre-trial expectancy, suggestibility, and response to treatment in a trial of escitalopram and investigational drug, COMP360, psilocybin, in the treatment of major depressive disorder (ClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT03429075). METHODS: We used data (n = 55) from our recent double-blind, parallel-group, randomized head-to-head comparison trial of escitalopram and investigational drug, COMP360, psilocybin. Mixed linear models were used to investigate the association between pre-treatment efficacy-related expectations, as well as baseline trait suggestibility and absorption, and therapeutic response to both escitalopram and COMP360 psilocybin. RESULTS: Patients had significantly higher expectancy for psilocybin relative to escitalopram; however, expectancy for escitalopram was associated with improved therapeutic outcomes to escitalopram, expectancy for psilocybin was not predictive of response to psilocybin. Separately, we found that pre-treatment trait suggestibility was associated with therapeutic response in the psilocybin arm, but not in the escitalopram arm. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, our results suggest that psychedelic therapy may be less vulnerable to expectancy biases than previously suspected. The relationship between baseline trait suggestibility and response to psilocybin therapy implies that highly suggestible individuals may be primed for response to this treatment.

Effectiveness of cladribine compared to fingolimod, natalizumab, ocrelizumab and alemtuzumab in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

BACKGROUND: Comparisons between cladribine and other potent immunotherapies for multiple sclerosis (MS) are lacking. OBJECTIVES: To compare the effectiveness of cladribine against fingolimod, natalizumab, ocrelizumab and alemtuzumab in relapsing-remitting MS. METHODS: Patients with relapsing-remitting MS treated with cladribine, fingolimod, natalizumab, ocrelizumab or alemtuzumab were identified in the global MSBase cohort and two additional UK centres. Patients were followed for ⩾6/12 and had ⩾3 in-person disability assessments. Patients were matched using propensity score. Four pairwise analyses compared annualised relapse rates (ARRs) and disability outcomes. RESULTS: The eligible cohorts consisted of 853 (fingolimod), 464 (natalizumab), 1131 (ocrelizumab), 123 (alemtuzumab) or 493 (cladribine) patients. Cladribine was associated with a lower ARR than fingolimod (0.07 vs. 0.12, p = 0.006) and a higher ARR than natalizumab (0.10 vs. 0.06, p = 0.03), ocrelizumab (0.09 vs. 0.05, p = 0.008) and alemtuzumab (0.17 vs. 0.04, p < 0.001). Compared to cladribine, the risk of disability worsening did not differ in patients treated with fingolimod (hazard ratio (HR) 1.08, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.47-2.47) or alemtuzumab (HR 0.73, 95% CI 0.26-2.07), but was lower for patients treated with natalizumab (HR 0.35, 95% CI 0.13-0.94) and ocrelizumab (HR 0.45, 95% CI 0.26-0.78). There was no evidence for a difference in disability improvement. CONCLUSION: Cladribine is an effective therapy that can be viewed as a step up in effectiveness from fingolimod, but is less effective than the most potent intravenous MS therapies.

Overview of the 2023 FDA Circulatory System Devices Advisory Panel meeting on the Recor Paradise Ultrasound-Based Renal Denervation System.

Hypertension continues to be a prominent, avoidable factor contributing to major vascular issues on a global scale. Even with lifestyle adjustments and more aggressive medical treatments, maintaining optimal blood pressure levels remains challenging. This challenge has driven the emergence of device-oriented approaches to address hypertension. To assess the safety and efficacy of the Recor Paradise Ultrasound Renal Denervation System, the Circulatory System Devices Panel was convened by the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA). This manuscript provides a condensed overview of the information put forth by the sponsor and the FDA, along with an account of the considerations and conversations that took place during the meeting.

Aspirin 162 mg versus 81 mg for Preeclampsia Prophylaxis in High-risk Obese Individuals: A Comparative Effectiveness Open Label Randomized Trial (ASPREO).

BACKGROUND: In the United States, leading medical societies recommend 81 mg of aspirin daily for the prevention of preeclampsia (PE) in women at risk, whereas the NICE guidelines in the UK recommend a dose as high as 150 mg of aspirin. Recent data also suggest that in the obese population, inadequate dosing or aspirin resistance may impact the efficacy of aspirin at the currently recommend doses. OBJECTIVE: We evaluated whether daily administration of 162 mg aspirin would be more effective compared to 81 mg in decreasing the rate of PE with severe features in high-risk obese pregnant individuals. STUDY DESIGN: We performed a randomized trial between May 2019 and November 2022. Individuals at 12 to 20-weeks gestational age (GA) with a BMI ≥ 30 kg/m2 at time to enrollment, and at least one of three high risk factors: history of PE in a prior pregnancy, at least stage I hypertension documented in the index pregnancy, pre-gestational diabetes or gestational diabetes diagnosed prior to 20 weeks GA were randomized to either 162 mg or 81 mg of aspirin daily till delivery, participants were not blinded to treatment allocation. Exclusion criteria were: multifetal gestation, known major fetal anomalies, seizure disorder, baseline proteinuria, on aspirin due to other indications, or contraindication to aspirin. The primary outcome was PE with severe features (PE or superimposed PE with severe features, eclampsia, or HELLP). Secondary outcomes included rates of preterm birth due to PE, small for gestational age (SGA), postpartum hemorrhage, abruption, and medication side effects. A sample size of 220 was needed using a preplanned Bayesian analysis of the primary outcome to estimate the posterior probability of benefit or harm with a neutral informative prior. RESULTS: Of 343 eligible individuals, 220 (64.1%) were randomized. The primary outcome was available for 209/220 (95%). Baseline characteristics were similar between groups, median gestational age at enrollment was 15.9 weeks in the 162 mg aspirin group and 15.6 weeks in the 81 mg aspirin group. Enrollment prior to 16 weeks occurred in 55/110 of those assigned to 162 mg and 58/110 of those assigned to 81 mg of aspirin. The primary outcome occurred in 35% in the 162 mg aspirin group and in 40% in the 81 mg aspirin group (posterior relative risk, 0.88; 95% credible interval, 0.64-1.22). Bayesian analysis indicated a 78% probability of a reduction in the primary outcome with 162 mg aspirin compared to 81 mg aspirin dose. Rates of indicated preterm birth due to preeclampsia (21% vs 21%), SGA (6.5% vs 2.9%), abruption (2.8% vs 3.0%) and postpartum hemorrhage (10% vs 8.8%) were similar between groups. Medication adverse effects were also similar. CONCLUSION: Among high-risk obese individuals, there was 78% probability of benefit that 162 mg aspirin compared to 81 mg will decrease the rate of PE with severe features. With a best estimate of a 12% reduction when using 162 mg of aspirin in comparison to 81 mg of aspirin in this population. This trial supports doing a larger multicenter trial.

Behavioral carry-over effect and power consideration in crossover trials.

A crossover trial is an efficient trial design when there is no carry-over effect. To reduce the impact of the biological carry-over effect, a washout period is often designed. However, the carry-over effect remains an outstanding concern when a washout period is unethical or cannot sufficiently diminish the impact of the carry-over effect. The latter can occur in comparative effectiveness research, where the carry-over effect is often non-biological but behavioral. In this paper, we investigate the crossover design under a potential outcomes framework with and without the carry-over effect. We find that when the carry-over effect exists and satisfies a sign condition, the basic estimator underestimates the treatment effect, which does not inflate the type I error of one-sided tests but negatively impacts the power. This leads to a power trade-off between the crossover design and the parallel-group design, and we derive the condition under which the crossover design does not lead to type I error inflation and is still more powerful than the parallel-group design. We also develop covariate adjustment methods for crossover trials. We evaluate the performance of cross-over design and covariate adjustment using data from the MTN-034/REACH study.

Some patients with type 2 diabetes may benefit from intensive glycaemic and blood pressure control: A post-hoc machine learning analysis of ACCORD trial data.

AIM: The action to control cardiovascular risk in diabetes (ACCORD) trial showed a neutral average treatment effect of intensive blood glucose and blood pressure (BP) controls in preventing major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Yet, treatment effects across patient subgroups have not been well understood. We aimed to identify patient subgroups that might benefit from intensive glucose or BP controls for preventing MACE. MATERIALS AND METHODS: As a post-hoc analysis of the ACCORD trial, we included 10 251 individuals with type 2 diabetes. We applied causal forest and causal tree models to identify participant characteristics that modify the efficacy of intensive glucose or BP controls from 68 candidate variables (demographics, comorbidities, medications and biomarkers) at the baseline. The exposure was (a) intensive versus standard glucose control [glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) <6.0% vs. 7.0%-7.9%], and (b) intensive versus standard BP control (systolic BP <120 vs. <140 mmHg). The primary outcome was MACE. RESULTS: Compared with standard glucose control, intensive one reduced MACE in those with baseline HbA1c <8.5% [relative risk (RR): 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.67-0.93] and those with estimated glomerular filtration rate ≥106 ml/min/1.73 m2 (RR: 0.74, 95% CI: 0.55-0.99). Intensive BP control reduced MACE in those with normal high-density lipoprotein levels (women >55 mg/dl, men >45 mg/dl; RR: 0.51, 95% CI: 0.34-0.74). Risk reductions were not significant in other patient subgroups. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest heterogeneous treatment effects of intensive glucose and BP control and could provide biomarkers for future clinical trials to identify more precise HbA1c and BP treatment goals for individualized medicine.

How Do the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review's Assessments of Comparative Effectiveness Compare With the German Federal Joint Committee's Assessments of Added Benefit? A Qualitative Study.

OBJECTIVES: We compared the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review's (ICER) ratings of comparative clinical effectiveness with the German Federal Joint Committee's (G-BA) added benefit ratings, and explored what factors may explain the disagreement between the 2 organizations. METHODS: We included drugs if they were assessed by ICER under its 2020 to 2023 Value Assessment Framework and had a corresponding assessment by G-BA as of January 2024 for the same indication, patient population, and comparator drug. To compare assessments, we modified ICER's proposed crosswalk between G-BA and ICER benefit ratings to account for G-BA's certainty ratings. We also determined whether each pair was based on similar evidence. Assessment pairs exhibiting disagreement based on the modified crosswalk despite a similar evidence base were qualitatively analyzed to identify reasons for disagreement. RESULTS: Out of 15 drug assessment pairs matched on indication, patient subgroup, and comparator, none showed agreement in their assessments when based on similar evidence. Disagreement was attributed to differences in evidence evaluation, including evaluations of safety, generalizability, and study design, as well as G-BA's rejection of the available evidence in 4 cases as unsuitable. CONCLUSIONS: The findings demonstrate that even under conditions where populations and comparators are identical and the evidence base is consistent, different assessors may arrive at divergent conclusions about comparative effectiveness, thus underscoring the presence of value judgments within assessments of clinical effectiveness. To support initiatives that seek to facilitate the exchange of value assessments between countries, these value judgments should always be transparently presented and justified in assessment summaries.

Acceptability of Using Real-World Data to Estimate Relative Treatment Effects in Health Technology Assessments: Barriers and Future Steps.

OBJECTIVES: Evidence about the comparative effects of new treatments is typically collected in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). In some instances, RCTs are not possible, or their value is limited by an inability to capture treatment effects over the longer term or in all relevant population subgroups. In these cases, nonrandomized studies (NRS) using real-world data (RWD) are increasingly used to complement trial evidence on treatment effects for health technology assessment (HTA). However, there have been concerns over a lack of acceptability of this evidence by HTA agencies. This article aims to identify the barriers to the acceptance of NRS and steps that may facilitate increases in the acceptability of NRS in the future. METHODS: Opinions of the authorship team based on their experience in real-world evidence research in academic, HTA, and industry settings, supported by a critical assessment of existing studies. RESULTS: Barriers were identified that are applicable to key stakeholder groups, including HTA agencies (eg, the lack of comprehensive methodological guidelines for using RWD), evidence generators (eg, avoidable deviations from best practices), and external stakeholders (eg, data controllers providing timely access to high-quality RWD). Future steps that may facilitate future acceptability of NRS include improvements in the quality, integration, and accessibility of RWD, wider use of demonstration projects to highlight the value and applicability of nonrandomized designs, living, and more detailed HTA guidelines, and improvements in HTA infrastructure relating to RWD. CONCLUSION: NRS can represent a crucial source of evidence on treatment effects for use in HTA when RCT evidence is limited.