Impact of age >70 years on oncological outcomes in patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer treated with Bacillus Calmette-Guérin.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of age on oncological outcomes in a large contemporary cohort of patients with non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) treated with adequate Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG). PATIENTS AND METHODS: We performed an Institutional Review Board-approved retrospective study analysing patients with NMIBC treated with adequate BCG at our institution from 2000 to 2020. Adequate BCG was defined as per United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) guidelines as being receipt of at least five of six induction BCG instillations with a minimum of two additional doses (of planned maintenance or of re-induction) of BCG instillations within a span of 6 months. The study's primary outcome was to determine if age >70 years was associated with progression to MIBC cancer or distant metastasis. The cumulative incidence method and the competing-risk regression analyses were used to investigate the association of advanced age (>70 years) with progression, high-grade (HG) recurrence and cancer-specific mortality (CSM). RESULTS: Overall, data from 632 patients were analysed: 355 patients (56.2%) were aged ≤70 years and 277 (43.8%) were >70 years. Age >70 years did not adversely affect either cumulative incidence of progression or HG recurrence (P = 0.067 and P = 0.644, respectively). On competing-risk regression analyses, age >70 years did not emerge as an independent predictor of progression or HG recurrence (sub-standardised hazard ratio [SHR] 1.57, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.87-2.81, P = 0.134; and SHR 1.05, 95% CI 0.77-1.44, P = 0.749). Not unexpectedly, patients in the older group did have higher overall mortality (P < 0.001) but not CSM (P = 0.057). CONCLUSION: Age >70 years was not associated with adverse oncological outcomes in a large contemporary cohort of patients receiving adequate intravesical BCG for NMIBC. BCG should not be withheld from older patients seeking for bladder sparing options.

Assessing the influence of graft loss on 4-year patient survival after simultaneous pancreas-kidney transplantation: Kaplan-Meier versus Competing Risk Analysis model.

BACKGROUND: Graft loss increases the risk of patient death after simultaneous pancreas-kidney (SPK) transplantation. The relative risk of each graft failure is complex due to the influence of several competing events. METHODS: This retrospective, single-center study compared 4-year patient survival according to the graft status using Kaplan-Meier (KM) and Competing Risk Analysis (CRA). Patient survival was also assessed according to five eras (Era 1: 2001-2003; Era 2: 2004-2006; Era 3: 2007-2009; Era 4: 2010-2012; Era 5: 2012-2015). RESULTS: Between 2000 and 2015, 432 SPK transplants were performed. Using KM, patient survival was 86.5% for patients without graft loss (n = 333), 93.4% for patients with pancreas graft loss (n = 46), 43.7% for patients with kidney graft loss (n = 16), and 25.4% for patients with pancreas and kidney graft loss (n = 37). Patient survival was underestimated using KM versus CRA methods in patients with pancreas and kidney graft losses (25.4% vs. 36.2%), respectively. Induction with lymphocyte depleting antibodies was associated with 81% reduced risk (HR.19, 95% CI.38-.98, p = .0048), while delayed kidney function (HR 2.94, 95% CI 1.09-7.95, p = .033) and surgical complications (HR 2.94, 95% CI 1.22-7.08, p = .016) were associated with higher risk of death. Four-year patient survival increased from Era 1 to Era 5 (79% vs. 87.9%, p = .047). CONCLUSION: In this cohort of patients, kidney graft loss, with or without pancreas graft loss, was associated with higher mortality after SPK transplantation. Compared to CRA, the KM model underestimated survival only among patients with pancreas and kidney graft losses. Patient survival increased over time.

Impact of malnutrition on cancer recurrence, colorectal cancer-specific death, and non-colorectal cancer-related death in patients with colorectal cancer who underwent curative surgery.

AIM: This study aimed to examine how malnutrition, as reflected by the Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index (GNRI), is associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) recurrence and cause of death. METHODS: Consecutive stage I-III CRC patients (n = 601) were divided into two groups using GNRI 98 as the cutoff. The relationship of GNRI with overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) was evaluated, followed by competing risk analysis to determine prognostic factors of non-CRC-related death, and hazard function analysis to examine changes in the risk of recurrence and death. RESULTS: Median body mass index was lower in the low GNRI group than in the high GNRI group (19.8 vs. 23.5; p < 0.001). After adjusting for known prognostic factors, a low GNRI was independently associated with reduced OS/RFS, and was a significant predictor of non-CRC-related death. The risk of recurrence was higher and peaked earlier in the low GNRI group than in the high GNRI group, although after 3 years, both groups had a similar risk. Meanwhile, the low GNRI group had a higher risk of non-CRC-related death over the course of 5 years. CONCLUSION: It is important to consider preoperative nutritional status along with the cancer stage when developing strategies to improve outcomes for CRC patients.

Editor's Choice -- Survival, Limb Salvage, and Management of Patients with Lower Limb Acute Ischaemia: A French National Retrospective Observational Study.

OBJECTIVE: The aim was to describe the baseline characteristics of French patients referred with acute limb ischaemia (ALI), and their clinical management and outcome (death, amputation). METHODS: This retrospective observational cohort study used the National Health Data System. All adults hospitalised for ALI who underwent revascularisation with an endovascular or open surgical approach between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2020 were included and followed up until death or the end of the study (31 December 2021). A one year look back period was used to capture patients' medical history. The risks of death, and major and minor amputations were described using Kaplan-Meier and Aalen-Johansen estimators. A Cox model was used to report the adjusted association between groups and risk of death and Fine-Gray models for the risk of amputations considering the competing risk of death. RESULTS: Overall, 51 390 patients (median age 70 years, 69% male) were included and had a median follow up of 2.7 years: 39 411 (76.7%) were treated with an open approach and 11 979 (23.3%) with a percutaneous endovascular approach. The preferred approach for the revascularisation varied between French regions. The one year overall survival was 78.0% and 85.2% in the surgery and endovascular groups, respectively. The surgery group had a higher risk of death (hazard ratio [HR] 1.17, 95% CI 1.12 - 1.21), a higher risk of major amputation (sub-distribution HR 1.20, 95% CI 1.10 - 1.30) and lower risk of minor amputation (sub-distribution HR 0.66, 95% CI 0.60 - 0.71) than the endovascular group. Diabetes and dialysis increased the risk of major amputation by 52% and 78%, respectively. Subsequent ALI was the third most common cause of hospital re-admission within one year. CONCLUSION: ALI remains a condition at high risk of death and amputation. Individual risk factors and ALI severity need to be considered to choose between approaches. Continued prevention efforts, improved management, and access to the most suitable approach are necessary.

Association of radioactive iodine treatment in differentiated thyroid cancer and cardiovascular death: a large population-based study.

PURPOSE: The risk of cardiovascular diseases' death (CVD) in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) treated with radioactive iodine (RAI) after surgery has not been adequately studied. METHODS: Data of DTC patients who received RAI after surgery were retrieved from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result (SEER) database (2004-2015). Standardized mortality rate (SMR) analysis was used to evaluate the CVD risk in patients with RAI vs general population. A 1:1 propensity score matching (PSM) was applied to balance inter-group bias, and Pearson's correlation coefficient was used to detect collinearity between variables. The Cox proportional hazard model and multivariate competing risk model were utilized to evaluate the impact of RAI on CVD. At last, we curved forest plots to compare differences in factors significantly associated with CVD or cancer-related deaths. RESULTS: DTC patients with RAI treatment showed lower SMR for CVD than general population (RAI: SMR = 0.66, 95% CI 0.62-0.71, P < 0.05). After PSM, Cox proportional hazard regression demonstrated a decreased risk of CVD among patients with RAI compared to patients without (HR = 0.76, 95% CI 0.6-0.97, P = 0.029). However, in competing risk regression analysis, there was no significant difference (adjusted HR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.66-1.01, P = 0.11). The independent risk factors associated with CVD were different from those associated with cancer-related deaths. CONCLUSION: The CVD risk between DTC patients treated with RAI and those who did not was no statistical difference. Noteworthy, they had decreased CVD risk compared with the general population.

Improved method to stratify lymphoma patients with risk of secondary central nervous system involvement: A multicenter retrospective analysis.

Secondary central nervous system (SCNS) involvement is an infrequent but universally fatal event in diffused large B-cell lymphoma. The occurrence rate of SCNS involvement is approximately 5% but comes with a poor prognosis ever after. However, existing risk models to predict the incidence and prognosis of these patients with SCNS involvement lack both efficiency and accuracy. Controversy has also been reported regarding which risk factor may best identify the population with a high CNS relapse rate. In this study, we retrospectively analyzed 831 patients with diffused large B-cell lymphoma, diagnosed between March 2008 and June 2018 in Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, Beijing Cancer Hospital, and Cancer Hospital of The University of Chinese Academy of Science. Risk factors and nomogram were identified and established based on Fine and Gray's competing risk analysis. Among these patients, 55 (6.6%) of them eventually developed SCNS involvement. The 1- and 2-year incidence for SCNS involvement were 3.9% and 4.7%, respectively. The median time from de novo diagnosis to CNS relapse was 8 months, and the median overall survival of these patients was 28 months. Considering the competing mortality before SCNS involvement, Fine and Gray's competing risk model was performed to analyze the characteristics related to SCNS involvement, and identified risk factors as the multiple extranodal involvements, elevated LDH and AMC level, and the involvement of breast, adrenal gland/kidney, pulmonary and bone. Corresponding factors were integrated into the competing nomogram for SCNS involvement (c-index = 0.778). In conclusion, we present the first predictive nomogram to evaluate the risk to develop SCNS involvement in de novo DLBCL patients, which may help in both prognostic evaluation and clinical decision for this subgroup.

Cumulative incidence of first recurrence after curative treatment of stage I-III colorectal cancer. Competing risk analyses of temporal and anatomic patterns.

BACKGROUND: Updated knowledge about the rates of recurrence and time to recurrence following curative treatment of colorectal cancer is essential to secure better patient information on prognosis, to serve as a premise in the discussion on adjuvant chemotherapy, and help to properly scale the intensity and length of follow-up. METHODS: This is a population-based study investigating aspects on first recurrence after radical treatment of clinical stages I-III of colorectal cancer in Central-Norway during 2001-2015. To reveal any time-trends, data were stratified by the time periods 2001-2005, 2006-2010 and 2011-2015. The cumulative incidence of first recurrence was calculated, treating death of unrelated causes as a competing event. Multivariable Cox analyses were done to calculate cause specific hazard ratios (HR) for risk of recurrence. RESULTS: At a minimum follow-up of six years, a first recurrence was detected in 1,113/5,556 patients at risk (20.0%). The recurrence rate was reduced from 23.6% in the first time period, through 20.0% in the second, and to 17.2% in the last, p < 0.001. The reduction applied to all tumor locations, to pathological disease stages II and III, to both gender, across different tumor differentiations, and to both elective and emergency surgery. In multivariable analyses time period, gender, disease stage, and tumor differentiation were significant determinants for risk of recurrence. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of first recurrence after curative surgery for colorectal cancer was substantially reduced from 2001 to 2015. The reason for the reduction could not be attributed to a single factor only. A combined effect of several incremental improvements, such as an increased use of preoperative radiation for rectal cancers, improved adjuvant chemotherapy for colon cancer, and a reduced proportion of emergency surgery, is suggested.

No difference in survival for primary cutaneous Merkel cell carcinoma after Mohs micrographic surgery and wide local excision.

BACKGROUND: The preferred treatment for clinically node-negative Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is surgical excision in conjunction with sentinel lymph node biopsy. There is limited large-scale research on survival outcomes by surgical approach for management of the primary tumor. OBJECTIVE: To compare overall and MCC-specific survival outcomes in clinically and pathologically, node-negative MCC patients treated with wide-local excision (WLE) and Mohs micrographic surgery (MMS) in a nationally representative sample. METHODS: Overall and MCC-specific survival outcomes for primary MCC tumors contained in the SEER (Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results)-18 database from 1989 to 2015 were stratified by surgical modality and analyzed via competing risk analysis. RESULTS: A total of 2359 US adults with MCC were included in the analysis. For overall and MCC-specific survival, there was no significant difference in survival outcomes between WLE and MMS on multivariable analysis (hazard ratio, 1.04 [95% CI, 0.88-1.22]; subdistribution hazard ratio, 0.76 [95% CI, 0.53-1.09]). Sentinel lymph node biopsy was associated with improved overall survival and MCC-specific survival. LIMITATIONS: Retrospective design of SEER and the lack of covariates such as comorbidities and immunostaining. CONCLUSION: There is no survival disadvantage for MMS compared to WLE as the surgical modality for primary cutaneous MCC. Sentinel lymph node biopsy should be coordinated prior to MMS.

Efficacy of fosaprepitant combined with tropisetron plus dexamethasone in preventing nausea and emesis during fractionated radiotherapy with weekly cisplatin chemotherapy: interim analysis of a randomized, prospective, clinical trial using competing risk analysis.

PURPOSE: There are no well-recognized guidelines for antiemesis during concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) for cervical cancer (CC) and nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) until now. The study was designed to assess the efficacy and safety of fosaprepitant combined with tropisetron and dexamethasone in preventing nausea and vomiting during 5 weeks of fractionated radiotherapy and concomitant weekly low-dose cisplatin chemotherapy in patients with CC or NPC. METHODS: Patients with CC or NPC were scheduled to receive fractionated radiotherapy and weekly cisplatin (25-40 mg/m2) chemotherapy for at least 5 weeks. Patients stratified by tumor type and induction chemotherapy were 1:1 randomly assigned to receive fosaprepitant, tropisetron, and dexamethasone or tropisetron plus dexamethasone as an antiemetic regimen. Efficacy was assessed primarily by the cumulative incidence of emesis after 5 weeks of treatment, and safety by adverse events (AEs). RESULTS: Between July 2020 and July 2022, 116 patients consented to the study of whom 103 were included in this interim analysis (fosaprepitant group [N = 52] vs control group [N = 51]). The cumulative incidence of emesis at 5 weeks (competing risk analysis) was 25% (95% CI 14.2-37.4) for the fosaprepitant group compared with 59% (95% CI 43.9-71.0) for the control group. There was a significantly lower cumulative risk of emesis in the fosaprepitant group (HR 0.35 [95% CI 0.19-0.64]; p < 0.001). Fosaprepitant was well tolerated as the incidences of adverse events in the two groups were comparable. CONCLUSION: The addition of fosaprepitant to tropisetron plus dexamethasone significantly reduced the risk of nausea and vomiting during 5 weeks of CCRT in patients with CC or NPC, and fosaprepitant was well tolerated. TRIAL REGISTRATION: The trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov on October 3, 2022, number NCT05564286.

A time-dependent subdistribution hazard model for major dental treatment events in cancer patients: a nationwide cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Dental care in cancer patients tends to be less prioritized. However, limited research has focused on major dental treatment events in cancer patients after the diagnosis. This study aimed to examine dental treatment delays in cancer patients compared to the general population using a national claims database in South Korea. METHOD: The Korea National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort version 2.0, collected from 2002 to 2015, was analyzed. Treatment events were considered for stomatitis, tooth loss, dental caries/pulp disease, and gingivitis/periodontal disease. For each considered event, time-dependent hazard ratios and associated 95% confidence intervals were calculated by applying a subdistribution hazard model with time-varying covariates. Mortality was treated as a competing event. Subgroup analyses were conducted by type of cancer. RESULTS: The time-dependent subdistribution hazard ratios (SHRs) of stomatitis treatment were greater than 1 in cancer patients in all time intervals, 2.04 within 30 days after cancer diagnosis, and gradually decreased to 1.15 after 5 years. The SHR for tooth loss was less than 0.70 within 3 months after cancer diagnosis and increased to 1 after 5 years. The trends in SHRs of treatment events for other dental diseases were similar to those observed for tooth loss. Subgroup analyses by cancer type suggested that probability of all dental treatment event occurrence was higher in head and neck cancer patients, particularly in the early phase after cancer diagnosis. CONCLUSION: Apart from treatments that are associated with cancer therapy, dental treatments in cancer patients are generally delayed and cancer patients tend to refrain from dental treatments. Consideration should be given to seeking more active and effective means for oral health promotion in cancer patients.

Construction and validation of the prognostic model for patients with neuroendocrine cervical carcinoma: a competing risk nomogram analysis.

PURPOSE: Neuroendocrine cervical carcinoma (NECC) is an uncommon malignancy of the female reproductive system. This study aimed to evaluate cancer-specific mortality and to construct prognostic nomograms for predicting the survival of patients with NECC. METHODS: we assembled the patients with NECC diagnosed between 2004 to 2015 from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Meanwhile, we identified other patients with NECC from the Wenling Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital between 2002 to 2017. Fine and Gray's test and Kaplan-Meier methods were used to evaluate cancer-specific mortality and overall survival (OS) rates, respectively. Nomograms were constructed for predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) and OS for patients with NECC. The developed nomograms were validated both internally and externally. RESULTS: a total of 894 patients with NECC were extracted from the SEER database, then classified into the training cohort (n = 628) and the internal validation cohort (n = 266). Besides, 106 patients from the Wenling Maternal and Child Health Care Hospital served as an external validation cohort. Nomograms for predicting CSS and OS were constructed on clinical predictors. The validation of nomograms was calculated by calibration curves and concordance indexes (C-indexes). Furthermore, the developed nomograms presented higher areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves when compared to the FIGO staging system. CONCLUSIONS: we established the first competing risk nomograms to predict the survival of patients with NECC. Such a model with high predictive accuracy could be a practical tool for clinicians.

Tumor Deposits and Perineural Invasion had Comparable Impacts on the Survival of Patients With Non-metastatic Colorectal Adenocarcinoma: A Population-Based Propensity Score Matching and Competing Risk Analysis.

BACKGROUND: Both tumor deposits (TD) and perineural invasion (PNI) have been identified as risk factors for poor survival in patients with non-metastatic colorectal adenocarcinoma (CRC). However, the adverse impacts of TD and PNI on the survival of patients with non-metastatic CRC have not been compared. METHOD: Patients with non-metastatic CRC with known TD and PNI status were selected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. First, bivariate logistic regression analysis was utilized to identify the factors associated with TD and PNI status. Then, patients were divided into four groups, according to TD and PNI status. Propensity score matching (PSM) was performed to balance the baseline covariates. The impact of TD and PNI on survival was assessed by analyzing overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific mortality (CSM) rates. OS was calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method with log-rank analysis. CSM was estimated by competing risk analysis using the Fine and Gray model. RESULTS: A total of 70 689 patients with CRC met the inclusion and exclusion criteria. The positive rates of TD and PNI were 9.37% and 9.91%, respectively. For TD, the most important risk factor was N stage. With respect to PNI, the most significant factor was T stage. Tumor location, tumor size, differentiation grade, and serum CEA level were also correlated with TD and PNI status. After PSM, 1849 pairs were selected. Patients with TD+PNI+ status had the worst 5 year CSM and 5 year OS. In addition, the long-term survival outcomes of patients with TD+PNI- and TD-PNI+ status were comparable. CONCLUSION: The adverse impacts of TD and PNI on the survival of patients with non-metastatic CRC were comparable. CRC patients with both TD and PNI positive had the worst survival outcome.

The Long-Term Outcomes of Surgery Versus Endoscopic Treatment in Patients With Siewert Type II T1M0N0 Adenocarcinoma of the Esophagogastric Junction.

OBJECTIVE: We compared the long-term prognosis of surgery and endoscopic treatment (ET) in patients diagnosed with Siewert Type II pT1N0M0 adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG). METHODS: Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, we performed a real-world retrospective cohort study and enrolled patients with Siewert Type II pT1N0M0 AEG who underwent surgery or endoscopic treatment (ET) from 2010 to 2018. Matched cohorts were generated using propensity score matching Competing-risk analysis was applied. The cumulative incidence function was used to calculate cancer-specific death and other causes of death (OCD) at different time points. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed to identify significant prognostic factors by using the subdistribution hazard ratio. RESULTS: We enrolled 725 patients: 462 underwent surgery and 263 received ET. The 5 year cumulative CSD incidence significantly differed between surgery and ET cohorts (16.87% vs 11.08%, P = .01). Following PSM, 2 balanced groups (n = 219 patients each) were analyzed. No significant difference in the 5 year cumulative incidences of CSD was noted between cohorts (17.61% vs. 12.16%, P = .14). In multivariable analysis, the CSD incidence was high among patients with aged ≥65 (SHR 2.29, 95%CI 0.99-5.33, P = .05) and T1b-stage (SHR 1.92, 95%CI 1.03-3.57, P = .04); treatment (surgery or ET) was not significantly associated with cancer survival (SHR 1.51, 95% CI 0.81-2.81, P = .20). CONCLUSION: Long-term survival did not significantly differ among patients with Siewert Type II pT1N0M0 AEG adenocarcinoma undergoing surgery or ET. ET may be considered in patients >65 years old or those with submucosal (T1b-stage) cancer of AEG.

Statistical methods and graphical displays of quality of life with survival outcomes in oncology clinical trials for supporting the estimand framework.

BACKGROUND: Although there are discussions regarding standards of the analysis of patient-reported outcomes and quality of life (QOL) in oncology clinical trials, that of QOL with death events is not within their scope. For example, ignoring death can lead to bias in the QOL analysis for patients with moderate or high mortality rates in the palliative care setting. This is discussed in the estimand framework but is controversial. Information loss by summary measures under the estimand framework may make it challenging for clinicians to interpret the QOL analysis results. This study illustrated the use of graphical displays in the framework. They can be helpful for discussions between clinicians and statisticians and decision-making by stakeholders. METHODS: We reviewed the time-to-deterioration analysis, prioritized composite outcome approach, semi-competing risk analysis, survivor analysis, linear mixed model for repeated measures, and principal stratification approach. We summarized attributes of estimands and graphs in the statistical analysis and evaluated them in various hypothetical randomized controlled trials. RESULTS: Graphs for each analysis method provide different information and impressions. In the time-to-deterioration analysis, it was not easy to interpret the difference in the curves as an effect on QOL. The prioritized composite outcome approach provided new insights for QOL considering death by defining better conditions based on the distinction of OS and QOL. The semi-competing risk analysis provided different insights compared with the time-to-deterioration analysis and prioritized composite outcome approach. Due to the missing assumption, graphs by the linear mixed model for repeated measures should be carefully interpreted, even for descriptive purposes. The principal stratification approach provided pure comparison, but the interpretation was difficult because the target population was unknown. CONCLUSIONS: Graphical displays can capture different aspects of treatment effects that should be described in the estimand framework.

Risk of second primary malignancies associated with radiotherapy in prostate cancer patients: competing risk analysis.

Background: The effect of radiotherapy (RT) for second primary malignancies (SPMs) among prostate cancer survivors is controversial. Methods: Applying logistic regression, competing risk analysis and propensity score matching method, this study analyzed clinical data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program to compare the risk for SPMs between patients receiving RT and non-RT. Results: In this study, prostate cancer patients treated with RT developed more SPMs in the anus, bladder, rectum, liver, lung and bronchus and lymphoma than non-RT groups. Conclusion: More intensive surveillance should be adopted for these cancers among prostate cancer survivors.

Plain language summary Patients with prostate cancer have the highest 5-year survival rate, which increases the risk for developing second primary malignancies (SPMs). The effect of radiotherapy (RT) for SPMs is controversial among prostate cancer survivors. This study analyzed a mass of prostate cancer patients from a public database to compare risk for SPMs between RT and non-RT groups. RT indeed increased certain categories of SPM and intensive surveillance should be considered.

Predictors of nursing home admission in the older population in Belgium: a longitudinal follow-up of health interview survey participants.

BACKGROUND: This study examines predictors of nursing home admission (NHA) in Belgium in order to contribute to a better planning of the future demand for nursing home (NH) services and health care resources. METHODS: Data derived from the Belgian 2013 health interview survey were linked at individual level with health insurance data (2012 tot 2018). Only community dwelling participants, aged ≥65 years at the time of the survey were included in this study (n = 1930). Participants were followed until NHA, death or end of study period, i.e., December 31, 2018. The risk of NHA was calculated using a competing risk analysis. RESULTS: Over the follow-up period (median 5.29 years), 226 individuals were admitted to a NH and 268 died without admission to a NH. The overall cumulative risk of NHA was 1.4, 5.7 and 13.1% at respectively 1 year, 3 years and end of follow-up period. After multivariable adjustment, higher age, low educational attainment, living alone and use of home care services were significantly associated with a higher risk of NHA. A number of need factors (e.g., history of falls, suffering from urinary incontinence, depression or Alzheimer's disease) were also significantly associated with a higher risk of NHA. On the contrary, being female, having multimorbidity and increased contacts with health care providers were significantly associated with a decreased risk of NHA. Perceived health and limitations were both significant determinants of NHA, but perceived health was an effect modifier on limitations and vice versa. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings pinpoint important predictors of NHA in older adults, and offer possibilities of prevention to avoid or delay NHA for this population. Practical implications include prevention of falls, management of urinary incontinence at home and appropriate and timely management of limitations, depression and Alzheimer's disease. Focus should also be on people living alone to provide more timely contacts with health care providers. Further investigation of predictors of NHA should include contextual factors such as the availability of nursing-home beds, hospital beds, physicians and waiting lists for NHA.

Investigation of risk factors for tunneled hemodialysis catheters dysfunction: competing risk analysis of a tertiary center data.

BACKGROUND: Hemodialysis tunneled catheters are prone to failure due to infection or thrombosis. Prediction of catheter dysfunction chance and finding the predisposing risk factors might help clinicians to prolong proper catheter function. The multidimensional mechanism of failures following infection or thrombosis needs a multivariable and comprehensive analytic approach. METHODS: A longitudinal cross-sectional study was implemented on 1048 patients admitted for the first hemodialysis tunneled catheterization attempt between 2013 and 2019 in Shahid Hasheminejdad hospital, Tehran, Iran. Patients' information was extracted from digital and also paper records. Based on their criteria, single and multiple variable analyses were done separately in patients with catheter dysfunction due to thrombosis and infection. T-test and Chi-square test were performed in quantitative and categorical variables, respectively. Competing risk regression was performed under the assumption of proportionality for infection and thrombosis, and the sub-distributional hazard ratios (SHR) were calculated. All statistical inferences were made with a significance level of 0.05. RESULTS: Four hundred sixty-six patients were enrolled in the analysis based on study criteria. Samples' mean (SD) age was 54(15.54), and 322 (69.1%) patients were female. Three hundred sixty-five catheter dysfunction cases were observed due to thrombosis 123(26.4%) and infection 242(52%). The Median (range) time to catheter dysfunction event was 243(36-1131) days. Single variable analysis showed a statistically significant higher proportion of thrombosis in females (OR = 2.66, 95% CI: 1.77-4.00) and younger patients, respectively. Multivariate competing risk regression showed a statistically significant higher risk of thrombosis in females (Sub-distributional hazard (SHR) = 1.81), hypertensive (SHR = 1.82), and more obese patients (BMI SHR = 1.037). A higher risk of infection was calculated in younger (Age SHR = 0.98) and diabetic (SHR = 1.63) patients using the same method. CONCLUSION: Female and hypertensive patients are considerably at higher risk of catheter thrombosis, whereas diabetes is the most critical risk factor for infectious catheter dysfunction. Competing risk regression analysis showed a comprehensive result in the assessment of risk factors of catheter dysfunction.

The role of chemotherapy in patients with stage IB gastric adenocarcinoma: a real-world competing risk analysis.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate the potential effect of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients diagnosed with stage IB gastric adenocarcinoma (GAC). METHOD: A total of 1727 patients were included in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database from 2004 to 2015 and divided into the chemotherapy and no-chemotherapy groups. Then, the methods of Kaplan-Meier analysis, propensity score matching (PSM), and competing risk analysis were implemented. RESULTS: After PSM, no significant difference was found in the chemotherapy and no-chemotherapy groups in overall survival (OS) (p=0.4) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) (p=0.12) in survival curves. The competing risk analysis presented that the 5-year cumulative incidence of cancer-specific death (CSD) was significantly lower in patients receiving chemotherapy (11.5% vs. 20.8%, p=0.007), while no significant discrepancy was observed in other causes of death (OCD) in both groups (10.6% vs. 10.9%, p=0.474). Multivariable competing risks regression models presented a significant correlation between chemotherapy and CSD (HR, 0.51; 95%CI, 0.31-0.82; p=0.007). CONCLUSION: The stage IB GAC patients can benefit from adjuvant chemotherapy based on this competing risk analysis.

Competing risk analysis of cardiovascular/cerebrovascular death in T1/2 kidney cancer: a SEER database analysis.

BACKGROUND: Kidney cancer (KC) is associated with cardiovascular regulation disorder and easily leads to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular death (CCD), which is one of the major causes of death in patients with KC, especially those with T1/2 status. However, few studies have treated CCD as an independent outcome for analysis. We aimed to identify and evaluate the key factors associated with CCD in patients with T1/2 KC by competing risk analysis and compared these risk factors with those associated with kidney cancer-specific death (KCD) to offer some information for clinical management. METHODS: A total of 45,117 patients diagnosed with first primary KC in T1/2 status were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. All patients were divided into the CCD group (n = 3087), KCD group (n = 3212), other events group (n = 6312) or alive group (n = 32,506). Patients' characteristics were estimated for their association with CCD or KCD by a competing risk model. Pearson's correlation coefficient and variance inflation factor (VIF) were used to detect collinearity between variables. Factors significantly correlated with CCD or KCD were used to create forest plots to compare their differences. RESULTS: The competing risk analysis showed that age at diagnosis, race, AJCC T/N status, radiation therapy, chemotherapy and scope of lymph node represented different relationships to CCD than to KCD. In detail, age at diagnosis (over 74/1-50: HR = 9.525, 95% CI: 8.049-11.273), race (white/black: HR = 1.475, 95% CI: 1.334-1.632), AJCC T status (T2/T1: HR = 0.847, 95% CI: 0.758-0.946) and chemotherapy (received/unreceived: HR = 0.574, 95% CI: 0.347-0.949) were correlated significantly with CCD; age at diagnosis (over 74/1-50: HR = 3.205, 95% CI: 2.814-3.650), AJCC T/N status (T2/T1: HR = 2.259, 95% CI: 2.081-2.451 and N1/N0:HR = 3.347, 95% CI: 2.698-4.152), radiation therapy (received/unreceived: HR = 2.552, 95% CI: 1.946-3.346), chemotherapy (received/unreceived: HR = 2.896, 95% CI: 2.342-3.581) and scope of lymph nodes (1-3 regional lymph nodes removed/none: HR = 1.378, 95% CI: 1.206-1.575) were correlated significantly with KCD. CONCLUSIONS: We found that age at diagnosis, race, AJCC T status and chemotherapy as the independent risk factors associated with CCD were different from those associated with KCD.

Causes of death and effect of non-cancer-specific death on rates of overall survival in adult classic Hodgkin lymphoma: a populated-based competing risk analysis.

BACKGROUND: The improved prognosis of classic Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) has been accompanied by elevated risks of non-cancer-specific death (non-CSD). The aim of this study was to verify the occurrence of non-CSD and its effect on rates of overall survival among adult patients with cHL. METHODS: To ensure sufficient follow-up time, we analyzed retrospective data from patients aged ≥20 years with cHL that was diagnosed between 1983 and 2005 in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database. Logistic regression was applied to analyze the non-CSD occurrence in relation to all factors. Using Fine-Gray's method, we calculated the cumulative incidences of CSD and non-CSD. Stacked cumulative incidence plots and ratio of non-CSD to all causes of death were applied to evaluate the effect of non-CSD on rates of overall survival. Finally, we analyzed long-term mortality through Cox proportional hazard regression analysis and competing risk regression analysis to emphasize a more appropriate model of survival for patients with cHL. RESULTS: Among the 18,518 patients included, there were 3768 cases of CSD (20.3%) and 3217 of non-CSD (17.4%). Older age, earlier period, male sex, unmarried status, mixed cellularity (MC) and lymphocyte-depletion (LD) histological subtype, and patients received radiotherapy (RT) only were associated with more non-CSD according to binary logistic analysis. The cumulative incidence of non-CSD exceeded CSD after approximately 280 months follow-up. The most common causes of non-CSDs were cardiovascular disease, subsequent primary neoplasms, infectious diseases, accidents, and suicide. In a Cox proportional hazards model, patients who were black, unmarried, at an advanced stage or underwent chemotherapy (CT) alone were at greater risk of mortality than were white patients, who were married, at an early stage, and underwent combined modality; these populations were also found to be at greater risk for CSD in a competing risk model, but the risk of non-CSD did not differ significantly according to race and marital status, patients with early-stage disease and who underwent RT only were found to be at higher risk of non-CSD instead. CONCLUSIONS: Lymphoma was the cause of death in most patients who died, but non-CSD was not unusual. Patients with cHL should be monitored closely for signs of cardiovascular disease and malignant tumors. Rates of overall survival of patients were diminished by non-CSD, and a competing risk model was more suitable for establishing the prognosis than was the Cox proportional hazards model.