Atopic eczema in adulthood and mortality: UK population-based cohort study, 1998-2016.

BACKGROUND: Atopic eczema affects up to 10% of adults and is becoming more common globally. Few studies have assessed whether atopic eczema increases the risk of death. OBJECTIVE: We aimed to determine whether adults with atopic eczema were at increased risk of death overall and by specific causes and to assess whether the risk varied by atopic eczema severity and activity. METHODS: The study was a population-based matched cohort study using UK primary care electronic health care records from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink with linked hospitalization data from Hospital Episode Statistics and mortality data from the Office for National Statistics from 1998 to 2016. RESULTS: A total of 526,736 patients with atopic eczema were matched to 2,567,872 individuals without atopic eczema. The median age at entry was 41.8 years, and the median follow-up time was 4.5 years. There was limited evidence of increased hazard for all-cause mortality in those with atopic eczema (hazard ratio = 1.04; 99% CI = 1.03-1.06), but there were somewhat stronger associations (8%-14% increased hazard) for deaths due to infectious, digestive, and genitourinary causes. Differences on the absolute scale were modest owing to low overall mortality rates. Mortality risk increased markedly with eczema severity and activity. For example, patients with severe atopic eczema had a 62% increased hazard (hazard ratio = 1.62; 99% CI = 1.54-1.71) for mortality compared with those without eczema, with the strongest associations for infectious, respiratory, and genitourinary causes. CONCLUSION: The increased hazards for all-cause and cause-specific mortality were largely restricted to those with the most severe or predominantly active atopic eczema. Understanding the reasons for these increased hazards for mortality is an urgent priority.

The incidence and prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease in UK primary care: a retrospective cohort study of the IQVIA Medical Research Database.

BACKGROUND: Our knowledge of the incidence and prevalence of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) is uncertain. Recent studies reported an increase in prevalence. However, they excluded a high proportion of ambiguous cases from general practice. Estimates are needed to inform health care providers who plan the provision of services for IBD patients. We aimed to estimate the IBD incidence and prevalence in UK general practice. METHODS: We undertook a retrospective cohort study of routine electronic health records from the IQVIA Medical Research Database covering 14 million patients. Adult patients from 2006 to 2016 were included. IBD was defined as an IBD related Read code or record of IBD specific medication. Annual incidence and 12-month period prevalence were calculated. RESULTS: The prevalence of IBD increased between 2006 and 2016 from 106.2 (95% CI 105.2-107.3) to 142.1 (95% CI 140.7-143.5) IBD cases per 10,000 patients which is a 33.8% increase. Incidence varied across the years. The incidence across the full study period was 69.5 (95% CI 68.6-70.4) per 100,000 person years. CONCLUSIONS: In this large study we found higher estimates of IBD incidence and prevalence than previously reported. Estimates are highly dependent on definitions of disease and previously may have been underestimated.

Rivaroxaban was found to be noninferior to warfarin in routine clinical care: A retrospective noninferiority cohort replication study.

PURPOSE: To compare the effectiveness and safety of a drug in daily practice with the outcomes of a target non-inferiority trial by rigorously mimickingin an observational study the trial's design features. METHODS: This cohort study was conducted using the British Clinical Practice Research Datalink (CPRD) to emulate the ROCKET AF (Rivaroxaban Once Daily Oral Direct Factor Xa Inhibition Compared with Vitamin K Antagonism for Prevention of Stroke and Embolism Trial in Atrial Fibrillation) trial. Patients with atrial fibrillation who were newly prescribed (>=12 months of no use) either rivaroxaban or warfarinfrom October 2008 to December 2017 were included. Non-inferiority of rivaroxaban to warfarin in the prevention of stroke or systemic embolism was assessed in different analysis populations (intention-to-treat [ITT], per-protocol [PP], and as-treated populations) using a hazardratio (HR) of 1.46 as the non-inferiority margin. Major bleeding (safety outcome) was also assessed and compared to that of the target trial. All outcomes were analyzed using Cox-proportional hazard analyses. RESULTS: We included 25,473 incident users of rivaroxaban (n=4,008) or warfarin(n=21,465). Similar to the trial, non-inferiority in the primary out come was demonstrated in all three analysis populations: HR=1.04 (95%CI 0.84 to 1.30) (ITT), HR=0.98 (95%CI 0.70 to 1.38) (PP), and HR=1.11 (95%CI 0.86 to 1.42) (as-treated). Risk of major bleeding was also similar to the target trial. CONCLUSION: The results of this study provide supportive evidence to the effectiveness of rivaroxaban and adds knowledge on the usefulness of emulating a non-inferiority trial to assess drug effectiveness.

Validation study of colorectal cancer diagnosis in the Spanish primary care database, BIFAP.

PURPOSE: To define and validate a case-finding algorithm to identify incident colorectal cancer (CRC) in the Spanish primary care database BIFAP. METHODS: All potential incident CRC cases recorded during the study period 2001 to 2014 among patients 20 to 89 years old were identified using a defined case-finding algorithm tailored to BIFAP database characteristics and based on codes plus text mining strategies. Potential CRC cases identified by the algorithm were classified into eight homogeneous groups according to recording characteristics. Random samples of 100 cases per group were obtained, and electronic medical records were manually reviewed by two independent researchers. Positive predictive values (PPVs) were estimated per each group and for the whole sample taking into account the stratified sampling. Standardized incidence rate (SIR) of CRC was estimated and compared with that reported by the National Cancer Registry. Negative predictive value (NPV) was also estimated in a random sample of 100 non-CRC patients by the algorithm. RESULTS: A total of 17 008 potential CRC cases were identified. Most of them (14793; 87%) were recorded as incident diagnosis with linked clinical notes as free text, having this group a PPV of 92.1% (95%CI: 87.1%-95.3%). The overall PPV including all groups was 87.3% (95%CI: 83.3%-90.4%). SIR of CRC was 55.5 per 100.000 person-years. SIR increased with age and was higher in men as compared with women (77.7 vs 38.1 per 100.000 py, respectively) which were in line with those reported by the Network of Cancer Registries in Spain. NPV was of 100% (96.3%-100%). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a high validity of the CRC cases identified by the algorithm and a high level of CRC recording in BIFAP database and supports its appropriateness to validly identify incident CRC cases in BIFAP.

Therapists' experiences with implementing new documentation practices for low back pain in electronic health care records: an interview study.

OBJECTIVE: Clinical practice is constantly changing with new guidelines being published, changes in patients' preferences but also by new qualitative requirements for therapists and institutional surveys on delivered care. Electronic health records (EHR) are used for all these purposes. We involved physiotherapists and occupational therapists in an intervention to change documentation practice in their electronic health record for low back pain (LBP) and later evaluated the feasibility of the new health records. The aim of the present study was to explore therapists' experiences working with the new EHR. RESULTS: Three themes were identified thru interviews: (I) Facilitators and motivators towards implementation, (II) Changing routines as a group and (III) Obstacles against successful implementation. This study identifies a need for involving therapists and management for successful change of electronic health care records usage in municipalities. However, difficulties were encountered in meeting documentation of practice requirements and obtaining sufficient data quality in the EHR for data to be used for daily use, quality assessment and research. In this small descriptive study, developing an EHR that simultaneously serves treatment plans, quality assessment, and research purposes was not expressed being feasible. Further research in this area is needed.

The Development of the Military Service Identification Tool: Identifying Military Veterans in a Clinical Research Database Using Natural Language Processing and Machine Learning.

BACKGROUND: Electronic health care records (EHRs) are a rich source of health-related information, with potential for secondary research use. In the United Kingdom, there is no national marker for identifying those who have previously served in the Armed Forces, making analysis of the health and well-being of veterans using EHRs difficult. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to develop a tool to identify veterans from free-text clinical documents recorded in a psychiatric EHR database. METHODS: Veterans were manually identified using the South London and Maudsley (SLaM) Biomedical Research Centre Clinical Record Interactive Search-a database holding secondary mental health care electronic records for the SLaM National Health Service Foundation Trust. An iterative approach was taken; first, a structured query language (SQL) method was developed, which was then refined using natural language processing and machine learning to create the Military Service Identification Tool (MSIT) to identify if a patient was a civilian or veteran. Performance, defined as correct classification of veterans compared with incorrect classification, was measured using positive predictive value, negative predictive value, sensitivity, F1 score, and accuracy (otherwise termed Youden Index). RESULTS: A gold standard dataset of 6672 free-text clinical documents was manually annotated by human coders. Of these documents, 66.00% (4470/6672) were then used to train the SQL and MSIT approaches and 34.00% (2202/6672) were used for testing the approaches. To develop the MSIT, an iterative 2-stage approach was undertaken. In the first stage, an SQL method was developed to identify veterans using a keyword rule-based approach. This approach obtained an accuracy of 0.93 in correctly predicting civilians and veterans, a positive predictive value of 0.81, a sensitivity of 0.75, and a negative predictive value of 0.95. This method informed the second stage, which was the development of the MSIT using machine learning, which, when tested, obtained an accuracy of 0.97, a positive predictive value of 0.90, a sensitivity of 0.91, and a negative predictive value of 0.98. CONCLUSIONS: The MSIT has the potential to be used in identifying veterans in the United Kingdom from free-text clinical documents, providing new and unique insights into the health and well-being of this population and their use of mental health care services.

Myocardial Infarction and Ischemic Stroke after Exacerbations of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.

RATIONALE: Previous studies have suggested that acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) may be associated with increased risk of myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to quantify the increased risks of myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke risk associated with both moderate and severe acute exacerbation, and to investigate factors that may modify these risks. METHODS: We performed a self-controlled case series to investigate the rates of myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke after acute exacerbation compared with stable time, within individuals. The participants were 5,696 adults with COPD with a first myocardial infarction (n = 2,850) or ischemic stroke (n = 3,010) and at least one acute exacerbation from the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink with linked Hospital Episodes Statistics data. RESULTS: The risks of both myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke were increased in the 91 days after an acute exacerbation. The risks were greater after a severe exacerbation (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 2.58; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.26-2.95 for myocardial infarction; and IRR, 1.97; 95% CI, 1.66-2.33 for ischemic stroke) than after a moderate exacerbation (IRR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.46-1.71 for myocardial infarction; and IRR, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.33-1.57 for ischemic stroke). The relative risks of myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke associated with acute exacerbation were lower among those with more frequent exacerbations (IRR, 1.42; 95% CI, 1.24-1.62 vs. IRR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.50-1.91 for myocardial infarction; and IRR, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.15-1.48 vs. IRR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.50-1.89 for ischemic stroke). Higher GOLD stage was associated with a lower rate of myocardial infarction (IRR, 1.98; 95% CI, 1.61-2.05 vs. IRR, 1.69; 95% CI, 1.45-1.98) but not for ischemic stroke. Aspirin use at baseline was associated with a lower risk of ischemic stroke (IRR, 1.28; 95% CI, 1.10-1.50 vs. IRR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.47-1.80) but not with myocardial infarction. CONCLUSIONS: Acute exacerbations of COPD are associated with an increased risk of myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke within 28 days of their onset. Several patient characteristics were identified that are associated with these events.