Observer effect, quasi-probabilities and generalized Specker's boxes.

Quantum non-locality and contextuality can be simulated with quasi-probabilities, i.e. probabilities that take negative values. Here, we show that another quantum phenomenon, the observer effect, admits a quasi-probabilistic description too. We also investigate post-quantum observer effects based on the Specker's triangle scenario. This scenario comprises three observables, with the possibility of measuring two simultaneously. Represented as three boxes with a hidden ball, this scenario exhibits counterintuitive behaviour: regardless of the chosen pair of boxes, one box always contains the ball. Moreover, the scenario demonstrates a strong observer effect. When an observer selects and opens the first box, finding it empty, the ball is guaranteed to be in the second box, thereby allowing the observer to determine the ball's location among the remaining two boxes. We extend this scenario to include additional boxes and multiple balls. By employing negative probabilities, we demonstrate amplification of the observer effect. This article is part of the theme issue 'Quantum contextuality, causality and freedom of choice'.

Measures of contextuality in cyclic systems and the negative probabilities measure CNT3.

Several principled measures of contextuality have been proposed for general systems of random variables (i.e. inconsistently connected systems). One such measure is based on quasi-couplings using negative probabilities (here denoted by [Formula: see text], Dzhafarov & Kujala, 2016 Quantum interaction). Dzhafarov & Kujala (Dzhafarov & Kujala 2019 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 377, 20190149. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2019.0149)) introduced a measure of contextuality, [Formula: see text], that naturally generalizes to a measure of non-contextuality. Dzhafarov & Kujala (Dzhafarov & Kujala 2019 Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 377, 20190149. (doi:10.1098/rsta.2019.0149)) additionally conjectured that in the class of cyclic systems these two measures are proportional. Here we prove that conjecture is correct. Recently, Cervantes (Cervantes 2023 J. Math. Psychol. 112, 102726. (doi:10.1016/j.jmp.2022.102726)) showed the proportionality of [Formula: see text] and the Contextual Fraction measure introduced by Abramsky & Brandenburger (Abramsky & Brandenburger 2011 New J. Phys. 13, 113036. (doi:10.1088/1367-2630/13/11/113036)). The present proof completes the description of the interrelations of all contextuality measures proposed within or translated into the Contextuality-by-Default framework so far as they pertain to cyclic systems. This article is part of the theme issue 'Quantum contextuality, causality and freedom of choice'.

Indistinguishability and Negative Probabilities.

In this paper, we examined the connection between quantum systems' indistinguishability and signed (or negative) probabilities. We do so by first introducing a measure-theoretic definition of signed probabilities inspired by research in quantum contextuality. We then argue that ontological indistinguishability leads to the no-signaling condition and negative probabilities.

On the True Number of COVID-19 Infections: Effect of Sensitivity, Specificity and Number of Tests on Prevalence Ratio Estimation.

In this paper, a formula for estimating the prevalence ratio of a disease in a population that is tested with imperfect tests is given. The formula is in terms of the fraction of positive test results and test parameters, i.e., probability of true positives (sensitivity) and the probability of true negatives (specificity). The motivation of this work arises in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic in which estimating the number of infected individuals depends on the sensitivity and specificity of the tests. In this context, it is shown that approximating the prevalence ratio by the ratio between the number of positive tests and the total number of tested individuals leads to dramatically high estimation errors, and thus, unadapted public health policies. The relevance of estimating the prevalence ratio using the formula presented in this work is that precision increases with the number of tests. Two conclusions are drawn from this work. First, in order to ensure that a reliable estimation is achieved with a finite number of tests, testing campaigns must be implemented with tests for which the sum of the sensitivity and the specificity is sufficiently different than one. Second, the key parameter for reducing the estimation error is the number of tests. For a large number of tests, as long as the sum of the sensitivity and specificity is different than one, the exact values of these parameters have very little impact on the estimation error.