Incursion of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A(H5N1) Clade 2.3.4.4b Virus, Brazil, 2023.

We report 4 highly pathogenic avian influenza A(H5N1) clade 2.3.4.4.b viruses in samples collected during June 2023 from Royal terns and Cabot's terns in Brazil. Phylodynamic analysis revealed viral movement from Peru to Brazil, indicating a concerning spread of this clade along the Atlantic Americas migratory bird flyway.

Persistence of SARS-CoV-2 infection and viral intra- and inter-host evolution in COVID-19 hospitalized patients.

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) persistence in COVID-19 patients could play a key role in the emergence of variants of concern. The rapid intra-host evolution of SARS-CoV-2 may result in an increased transmissibility, immune and therapeutic escape which could be a direct consequence of COVID-19 epidemic currents. In this context, a longitudinal retrospective study on eight consecutive COVID-19 patients with persistent SARS-CoV-2 infection, from January 2022 to March 2023, was conducted. To characterize the intra- and inter-host viral evolution, whole genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis were performed on nasopharyngeal samples collected at different time points. Phylogenetic reconstruction revealed an accelerated SARS-CoV-2 intra-host evolution and emergence of antigenically divergent variants. The Bayesian inference and principal coordinate analysis analysis showed a host-based genomic structuring among antigenically divergent variants, that might reflect the positive effect of containment practices, within the critical hospital area. All longitudinal antigenically divergent isolates shared a wide range of amino acidic (aa) changes, particularly in the Spike (S) glycoprotein, that increased viral transmissibility (K417N, S477N, N501Y and Q498R), enhanced infectivity (R346T, S373P, R408S, T478K, Q498R, Y505H, D614G, H655Y, N679K and P681H), caused host immune escape (S371L, S375F, T376A, K417N, and K444T/R) and displayed partial or complete resistance to treatments (G339D, R346K/T, S371F/L, S375F, T376A, D405N, N440K, G446S, N460K, E484A, F486V, Q493R, G496S and Q498R). These results suggest that multiple novel variants which emerge in the patient during persistent infection, might spread to another individual and continue to evolve. A pro-active genomic surveillance of persistent SARS-CoV-2 infected patients is recommended to identify genetically divergent lineages before their diffusion.

The origin, dissemination, and molecular networks of HIV-1 CRF65_cpx strain in Hainan Island, China.

BACKGROUND: HIV-1 CRF65_cpx strain carries drug-resistant mutations, which raises concerns about its potential for causing virologic failure. The CRF65_cpx ranks as the fourth most prevalent on Hainan Island, China. However, the origin and molecular epidemiology of CRF65_cpx strains in this area remain unclear. This study aims to estimate the spatial origins and dissemination patterns of HIV-1 CRF65_cpx in this specific region. METHODS: Between 2018 and 2021, a total of 58 pol sequences of the CRF65_cpx were collected from HIV-positive patients on Hainan Island. The available CRF65_cpx pol sequences from public databases were compiled. The HIV-TRACE tool was used to construct transmission networks. The evolutionary history of the introduction and dissemination of HIV-1 CRF65_cpx on Hainan Island were analyzed using phylogenetic analysis and the Bayesian coalescent-based approach. RESULTS: Among the 58 participants, 89.66% were men who have sex with men (MSM). The median age was 25 years, and 43.10% of the individuals had a college degree or above. The results indicated that 39 (67.24%) sequences were interconnected within a single transmission network. A consistent expansion was evident from 2019 to 2021, with an incremental annual addition of four sequences into the networks. Phylodynamic analyses showed that the CRF65_cpx on Hainan Island originated from Beijing (Bayes factor, BF = 17.4), with transmission among MSM on Hainan Island in 2013.2 (95%HPD: 2012.4, 2019.5), subsequently leading to an outbreak. Haikou was the local center of the CRF65_cpx epidemic. This strain propagated from Haikou to other locations, including Sanya (BF > 1000), Danzhou (BF = 299.3), Chengmai (BF = 27.0) and Tunchang (BF = 16.3). The analyses of the viral migration patterns between age subgroups and risk subgroups revealed that the viral migration directions were from "25-40 years old" to "17-24 years old" (BF = 14.6) and to "over 40 years old" (BF = 17.6), and from MSM to heterosexuals (BF > 1000) on Hainan Island. CONCLUSION: Our analyses elucidate the transmission dynamics of CRF65_cpx strain on Hainan Island. Haikou is identified as the potential hotspot for CRF65_cpx transmission, with middle-aged MSM identified as the key population. These findings suggest that targeted interventions in hotspots and key populations may be more effective in controlling the HIV epidemic.

A comprehensive profile of genomic variations in the SARS-CoV-2 isolates from the state of Telangana, India.

The novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19 has rapidly turned into a pandemic, infecting millions and causing 1 157 509 (as of 27 October 2020) deaths across the globe. In addition to studying the mode of transmission and evasion of host immune system, analysing the viral mutational landscape constitutes an area under active research. The latter is expected to impart knowledge on the emergence of different clades, subclades, viral protein functions and protein-protein and protein-RNA interactions during replication/transcription cycle of virus and response to host immune checkpoints. In this study, we have attempted to bring forth the viral genomic variants defining the major clade(s) as identified from samples collected from the state of Telangana, India. We further report a comprehensive draft of all genomic variations (including unique mutations) present in SARS-CoV-2 strain in the state of Telangana. Our results reveal the presence of two mutually exclusive subgroups defined by specific variants within the dominant clade present in the population. This work attempts to bridge the critical gap regarding the genomic landscape and associate mutations in SARS-CoV-2 from a highly infected southern region of India, which was lacking to date.

Armed conflict and population displacement as drivers of the evolution and dispersal of Mycobacterium tuberculosis.

The "Beijing" Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) lineage 2 (L2) is spreading globally and has been associated with accelerated disease progression and increased antibiotic resistance. Here we performed a phylodynamic reconstruction of one of the L2 sublineages, the central Asian clade (CAC), which has recently spread to western Europe. We find that recent historical events have contributed to the evolution and dispersal of the CAC. Our timing estimates indicate that the clade was likely introduced to Afghanistan during the 1979-1989 Soviet-Afghan war and spread further after population displacement in the wake of the American invasion in 2001. We also find that drug resistance mutations accumulated on a massive scale in Mtb isolates from former Soviet republics after the fall of the Soviet Union, a pattern that was not observed in CAC isolates from Afghanistan. Our results underscore the detrimental effects of political instability and population displacement on tuberculosis control and demonstrate the power of phylodynamic methods in exploring bacterial evolution in space and time.

Phylodynamics of Merkel-cell polyomavirus and human polyomavirus 6: A long-term history with humans.

New human polyomaviruses have been described in the last years, including the Merkel-cell polyomavirus (MCPyV; Human polyomavirus 5) and the Human polyomavirus 6 (HPyV6). Although their infection is usually asymptomatic, in immunocompromised host can cause life-threatening pathologies, such as the Merkel cell carcinoma, an aggressive skin neoplasia associated to the MCPyV. Despite being prevalent viruses in population, epidemiological data from South America are scarce, as well as the characterization of the viral types circulating and their origin. The aims of this work were to describe MCPyV and HPyV6 from environmental samples with different geographical origin and to analyze their phylogenetic and evolutionary histories, particularly for MCPyV. Partial and complete genome sequences were obtained from sewage samples from Argentina, Uruguay and Spain. A total number of 87 sequences were obtained for MCPyV and 33 for HPyV6. Phylogenetic analysis showed that MCPyV sequences distributed according to their geographic origin in Europe/North America, Africa, Asia, South America and Oceania groups, suggesting that viral diversification might have followed human migrations across the globe. In particular, viruses from Argentina associated with Europe/North America and South America genotypes, whereas those from Uruguay and Spain also grouped with Africa genotype, reflecting the origin of the current population in each country, which could arrive not only during ancient human migration but also during recent migratory events. In addition, the South American group presented a high level of clusterization, showing internal clusters that could be related to specific locations, such as French Guiana and Brazil or the Southern region into South America, such as Argentina and Uruguay, suggesting a long term evolutionary process in the region. Additionally, in this work, we carried out the first analysis about the evolutionary history of MCPyV trough the integration of phylogenetic, epidemiological and historical data. Since a strong association is observed between the phylogenetic relationships and the origin of the sampled population, this analysis was based on the hypothesis of co-divergence between the virus and human populations. This analysis resulted in a substitution rate of 5.1 × 10-8 s/s/y (∼5.1% of divergence per million years) for the complete genome of MCPyV, which is in the range of those estimated for other double-stranded DNA viruses. Regarding HPyV6, a South American group with clusterization was observed (sequences from Uruguay). Meanwhile, sequences from Argentina grouped with European ones (France and Spain) and remained separated from those isolated in China, USA or Australia. The analysis of viruses from the environment allowed us to deep characterize prevalent infections in different geographic regions, reveling that viruses circulating in each population reflected its origin and that there are specific lineages associated with South America.

Characterization of Avian Influenza A (H7N9) Virus Prevalence in Humans and Poultry in Huai'an, China: Molecular Epidemiology, Phylogenetic, and Dynamics Analyses.

OBJECTIVE: To trace the source of human H7N9 cases in Huai'an and elucidate the genetic characterization of Huai'an strains associated with both humans and birds in live poultry market. METHODS: An enhanced surveillance was implemented when the first human H7N9 case was confirmed in Huai'an. Clinical specimens, cloacal swabs, and fecal samples were collected and screened by real-time reverse transcription-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) for H7N9 virus. The positive samples were subjected to further RT-PCR and genome sequencing. The phylodynamic patterns of H7N9 virus within and separated from Huai'an and evolutionary dynamics of the virus were analyzed. RESULTS: Six patients with H7N9 infection were previously exposed to live poultry market and presented symptoms such as fever (>38.0 °C) and headaches. Results of this study support the hypothesis that live poultry markets were the source of human H7N9 exposure. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that all novel H7N9 viruses, including Huai'an strains, could be classified into two distinct clades, A and B. Additionally, the diversified H7N9 virus circulated in live poultry markets in Huai'an. Interestingly, the common ancestors of the Huai'an H7N9 virus existed in January 2012. The mean nucleotide substitution rates for each gene segment of the H7N9 virus were (3.09-7.26)×10-3 substitutions/site per year (95% HPD: 1.72×10-3 to 1.16×10-2). CONCLUSION: Overall, the source of exposure of human H7N9 cases in Huai'an was live poultry market, and our study highlights the presence of divergent genetic lineage of H7N9 virus in both humans and poultry specimens in Huai'an.

Whole-genome analysis of circulating influenza A virus (H3N2) strains in Shanghai, China from 2005 to 2023.

Seasonal influenza A virus subtype H3N2 (A/H3N2) circulates globally and has been linked to higher hospitalization rates and summer outbreaks in temperate regions. Here, A/H3N2 circulation in Shanghai, China was systematically studied using data and materials generated by the Shanghai influenza surveillance network from 2005 to 2023. Time-series analysis of incidence and subtyping data showed that A/H3N2 co-circulated with other (sub)types and dominated in multiple seasonal influenza peaks, preferentially in summer. Whole genomes of 528 representative strains were sequenced, and spatiotemporal phylodynamic analysis using these and GISAID-archived sequences demonstrated that in the years before the COVID-19 pandemic, phylogenetically similar strains were circulating locally and elsewhere. However, clade 1a.1 (within 3C.2a.1b.2a), circulated in and only in Shanghai and domestically in 2022, while the sibling clade 2 predominated in other regions. Interestingly, clade 1a.1 was swiftly and completely replaced by clade 2, mostly 2a.3a.1, at the start of 2023. In hemagglutination inhibition and neutralization assays, sera from healthy donors collected in 2022 displayed higher or similar reactivity against 2a.3a.1 compared to 1a.1. By contrast, transcription and replication competence of 2a.3a.1 in MDCK cells was higher than 1a.1. These results indicated that instead of antigenicity differences enabling evasion of pre-existing immunity, higher replicative capability more likely contributed to 2a.3a.1 viruses achieving dominance in China. In addition to summarizing patterns of A/H3N2 local circulation in Shanghai, this work revealed an unusual episode in A/H3N2 global circulation and evolution dynamics in connection to the COVID-19 pandemic and explored possible mechanistic explanations.

Molecular epidemiology of HIV among people who inject drugs after the HIV-outbreak in Athens, Greece: Evidence for a 'slow burn' outbreak.

BACKGROUND: New diagnoses of HIV-1 infection among people who inject drugs (PWID) in Athens, Greece, saw a significant increase in 2011 and a subsequent decline after 2013. Despite this, ongoing HIV-1 transmission persisted from 2014 to 2020 within this population. Our objective was to estimate the time of infection for PWID in Athens following the HIV-1 outbreak, explore the patterns of HIV-1 dispersal over time, and determine the duration from infection to diagnosis. METHODS: Time from HIV-1 infection to diagnosis was estimated for 844 individuals infected within 4 PWID-specific clusters and for 8 PWID infected with sub-subtype A6 diagnosed during 2010-2019. Phylogeny reconstruction was performed using the maximum-likelihood method. HIV-1 infection dates were based on molecular clock calculations. RESULTS: In total 86 of 92 (93.5%) sequences from PWID diagnosed during 2016-2019 were either related to the previously identified PWID-specific clusters (n = 81) or belonged to a new A6 cluster (n = 5). The median time between infection and diagnosis was 0.42 years during the outbreak period and 0.70 years during 2016-2019 (p < 0.001). The proportion of clustered sequences from PWID was very low at 5.3% during the pre-outbreak period (1998-2009), saw an increase to 41.7% one year before the outbreak in 2010, and consistently remained high during the whole period after 2011, spanning the post-outbreak period (2016-2019) with a range from 92.9% to 100%. CONCLUSIONS: The substantial proportion of clustered infections (93.5%) during 2016-2019 implies a persistent 'slow burn' HIV outbreak among PWID in Athens, suggesting that the outbreak was not successfully eliminated. The consistently high proportion of clustered sequences since the onset of the outbreak suggests the persistence of ongoing HIV-1 transmission attributed to injection practices. Our findings underscore the importance of targeted interventions among PWID, considering the ongoing transmission rate and prolonged time from infection to diagnosis.

Classification of a Massive Number of Viral Genomes and Estimation of Time of Most Recent Common Ancestor (tMRCA) of SARS-CoV-2 Using Phylodynamic Analysis.

Estimating the time of most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) is important to trace the origin of pathogenic viruses. This analysis is based on the genetic diversity accumulated in a certain time period. There have been thousands of mutant sites occurring in the genomes of SARS-CoV-2 since the COVID-19 pandemic started; six highly linked mutation sites occurred early before the start of the pandemic and can be used to classify the genomes into three main haplotypes. Tracing the origin of those three haplotypes may help to understand the origin of SARS-CoV-2. In this article, we present a complete protocol for the classification of SARS-CoV-2 genomes and calculating tMRCA using Bayesian phylodynamic method. This protocol may also be used in the analysis of other viral genomes. Key features • Filtering and alignment of a massive number of viral genomes using custom scripts and ViralMSA. • Classification of genomes based on highly linked sites using custom scripts. • Phylodynamic analysis of viral genomes using Bayesian evolutionary analysis sampling trees (BEAST). • Visualization of posterior distribution of tMRCA using Tracer.v1.7.2. • Optimized for the SARS-CoV-2.

Molecular Epidemiology and Evolution of Coxsackievirus A14.

As the proportion of non-enterovirus 71 and non-coxsackievirus A16 which proportion of composition in the hand, foot, and mouth pathogenic spectrum gradually increases worldwide, the attention paid to other enteroviruses has increased. As a member of the species enterovirus A, coxsackievirus A14 (CVA14) has been epidemic around the world until now since it has been isolated. However, studies on CVA14 are poor and the effective population size, evolutionary dynamics, and recombination patterns of CVA14 are not well understood. In this study, 15 CVA14 strains were isolated from HFMD patients in mainland China from 2009 to 2019, and the complete sequences of CVA14 in GenBank as research objects were analyzed. CVA14 was divided into seven genotypes A-G based on an average nucleotide difference of the full-length VP1 coding region of more than 15%. Compared with the CVA14 prototype strain, the 15 CVA14 strains showed 84.0-84.7% nucleotide identity in the complete genome and 96.9-97.6% amino acid identity in the encoding region. Phylodynamic analysis based on 15 CVA14 strains and 22 full-length VP1 sequences in GenBank showed a mean substitution rate of 5.35 × 10-3 substitutions/site/year (95% HPD: 4.03-6.89 × 10-3) and the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) of CVA14 dates back to 1942 (95% HPD: 1930-1950). The Bayesian skyline showed that the effective population size had experienced a decrease-increase-decrease fluctuation since 2004. The phylogeographic analysis indicated two and three possible migration paths in the world and mainland China, respectively. Four recombination patterns with others of species enterovirus A were observed in 15 CVA14 strains, among which coxsackievirus A2 (CVA2), coxsackievirus A4 (CVA4), coxsackievirus A6 (CVA6), coxsackievirus A8 (CVA8), and coxsackievirus A12 (CVA12) may act as recombinant donors in multiple regions. This study has filled the gap in the molecular epidemiological characteristics of CVA14, enriched the global CVA14 sequence database, and laid the epidemiological foundation for the future study of CVA14 worldwide.

The International Virus Bioinformatics Meeting 2023.

The 2023 International Virus Bioinformatics Meeting was held in Valencia, Spain, from 24-26 May 2023, attracting approximately 180 participants worldwide. The primary objective of the conference was to establish a dynamic scientific environment conducive to discussion, collaboration, and the generation of novel research ideas. As the first in-person event following the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, the meeting facilitated highly interactive exchanges among attendees. It served as a pivotal gathering for gaining insights into the current status of virus bioinformatics research and engaging with leading researchers and emerging scientists. The event comprised eight invited talks, 19 contributed talks, and 74 poster presentations across eleven sessions spanning three days. Topics covered included machine learning, bacteriophages, virus discovery, virus classification, virus visualization, viral infection, viromics, molecular epidemiology, phylodynamic analysis, RNA viruses, viral sequence analysis, viral surveillance, and metagenomics. This report provides rewritten abstracts of the presentations, a summary of the key research findings, and highlights shared during the meeting.

Advanced Genetic Methodologies in Tracking Evolution and Spread of SARS-CoV-2.

A newly emerged coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, caused severe pneumonia outbreaks in China in December 2019 and has since spread to various countries around the world. Here, we describe genetic methods to trace the evolution route and probe the transmission dynamics of this virus.

Evolution, Transmission, and Pathogenicity of High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus A (H5N8) Clade 2.3.4.4, South Korea, 2014-2016.

During 2014-2016, clade 2.3.4.4 H5N8 high pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) caused the largest known avian influenza epidemic in South Korea. Based on data from earlier H5N8 outbreaks, primitive H5N8 virus in South Korea was classified into five subgroups: C1, C2, C3, C4, and C5. The present study investigated the pathogenic and molecular epidemiologic characteristics of H5N8 viruses obtained from 388 cases of poultry farms and 85 cases of wild bird infections in South Korea during 2014-2016. Representative viruses of subgroups C1, C2, and C4 showed significant pathobiological differences in specific pathogen-free (SPF) chickens, with the H1731 (C1) virus showing substantially lower infectivity, transmissibility, and pathogenicity than the H2102 (C2) and H1924 (C4) viruses. Full genome sequence analysis showed the number of mutations that significantly increased in domestic duck-origin H5N8 HPAIVs compared to the viruses from gallinaceous poultry. These differences may have been due to the long-term circulation of viruses in domestic duck farms. The same mutations, at positions 219 and 757 of PB1, independently evolving in the C0, C1, and C2 subgroups may have been positively selected, resulting in convergent evolution at the amino acid level. Bayesian discrete trait phylodynamic analysis (DTA) indicated multiple introductions of H5N8 HPAIV from wild birds into domestic poultry in various regions in South Korea. Following initial viral introduction into domestic duck farms in the western part of Korea, domestic ducks played a major role in viral transmission and maintenance. These findings highlight the need for continued genomic surveillance and pathobiological characterization of HPAIV in birds. Enhanced biosecurity in poultry farms should be implemented to prevent the introduction, maintenance, and spread of HPAIV.

Genomic Surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 in a University Community: Insights Into Tracking Variants, Transmission, and Spread of Gamma (P.1) Variant.

Background: Using a combination of data from routine surveillance, genomic sequencing, and phylogeographic analysis, we tracked the spread and introduction events of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variants focusing on a large university community. Methods: Here, we sequenced and analyzed 677 high-quality SARS-CoV-2 genomes from positive RNA samples collected from Purdue University students, faculty, and staff who tested positive for the virus between January 2021 and May 2021, comprising an average of 32% of weekly cases across the time frame. Results: Our analysis of circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants over time revealed periods when variants of concern (VOC) Alpha (B.1.1.7) and Iota (B.1.526) reached rapid dominance and documented that VOC Gamma (P.1) was increasing in frequency as campus surveillance was ending. Phylodynamic analysis of Gamma genomes from campus alongside a subsampling of >20 000 previously published P.1 genomes revealed 10 independent introductions of this variant into the Purdue community, predominantly from elsewhere in the United States, with introductions from within the state of Indiana and from Illinois, and possibly Washington and New York, suggesting a degree of domestic spread. Conclusions: We conclude that a robust and sustained active and passive surveillance program coupled with genomic sequencing during a pandemic offers important insights into the dynamics of pathogen arrival and spread in a campus community and can help guide mitigation measures.

Dating the Origin and Estimating the Transmission Rates of the Major HIV-1 Clusters in Greece: Evidence about the Earliest Subtype A1 Epidemic in Europe.

Our aim was to estimate the date of the origin and the transmission rates of the major local clusters of subtypes A1 and B in Greece. Phylodynamic analyses were conducted in 14 subtype A1 and 31 subtype B clusters. The earliest dates of origin for subtypes A1 and B were in 1982.6 and in 1985.5, respectively. The transmission rate for the subtype A1 clusters ranged between 7.54 and 39.61 infections/100 person years (IQR: 9.39, 15.88), and for subtype B clusters between 4.42 and 36.44 infections/100 person years (IQR: 7.38, 15.04). Statistical analysis revealed that the average difference in the transmission rate between the PWID and the MSM clusters was 6.73 (95% CI: 0.86 to 12.60; p = 0.026). Our study provides evidence that the date of introduction of subtype A1 in Greece was the earliest in Europe. Transmission rates were significantly higher for PWID than MSM clusters due to the conditions that gave rise to an extensive PWID HIV-1 outbreak ten years ago in Athens, Greece. Transmission rate can be considered as a valuable measure for public health since it provides a proxy of the rate of epidemic growth within a cluster and, therefore, it can be useful for targeted HIV prevention programs.

Characterization of HIV-1 Epidemic in Kyrgyzstan.

Kyrgyzstan has one of the highest rates of HIV-1 spread in Central Asia. In this study, we used molecular-epidemiological approaches to examine the HIV-1 epidemic in Kyrgyzstan. Samples were obtained from HIV-positive individuals who visited HIV/AIDS clinics. Partial pol gene sequences were used to identify HIV-1 subtypes and drug resistance mutations (DRMs) and to perform phylogenetic analysis. Genetic diversity and history reconstruction of the major HIV-1 subtypes were explored using BEAST. This study includes an analysis of 555 HIV-positive individuals. The study population was equally represented by men and women aged 1-72 years. Heterosexual transmission was the most frequent, followed by nosocomial infection. Men were more likely to acquire HIV-1 during injection drug use and while getting clinical services, while women were more likely to be infected through sexual contacts (p < 0.01). Heterosexual transmission was the more prevalent among individuals 25-49 years old; individuals over 49 years old were more likely to be persons who inject drugs (PWID). The major HIV-1 variants were CRF02_AG, CRF63_02A, and sub-subtype A6. Major DRMs were detected in 26.9% of the study individuals; 62.2% of those had DRMs to at least two antiretroviral (ARV) drug classes. Phylogenetic analysis revealed a well-defined structure of CRF02_AG, indicating locally evolving sub-epidemics. The lack of well-defined phylogenetic structure was observed for sub-subtype A6. The estimated origin date of CRF02_AG was January 1997; CRF63_02A, April 2004; and A6, June 1995. A rapid evolutionary dynamic of CRF02_AG and A6 among Kyrgyz population since the mid-1990s was observed. We observed the high levels of HIV-1 genetic diversity and drug resistance in the study population. Complex patterns of HIV-1 phylogenetics in Kyrgyzstan were found. This study highlights the importance of molecular-epidemiological analysis for HIV-1 surveillance and treatment implementation to reduce new HIV-1 infections.

Genetic cluster analysis of SARS-CoV-2 and the identification of those responsible for the major outbreaks in various countries.

A newly emerged coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, caused severe pneumonia outbreaks in China in December 2019 and has since spread to various countries around the world. To trace the evolution route and probe the transmission dynamics of this virus, we performed phylodynamic analysis of 247 high quality genomic sequences available in the GISAID platform as of 5 March 2020. Among them, four genetic clusters, defined as super-spreaders (SSs), could be identified and were found to be responsible for the major outbreaks that subsequently occurred in various countries. SS1 was widely disseminated in Asia and the US, and mainly responsible for outbreaks in the states of Washington and California as well as South Korea, whereas SS4 contributed to the pandemic in Europe. Using the signature mutations of each SS as markers, we further analysed 1539 genome sequences reported after 29 February 2020 and found that 90% of these genomes belonged to SSs, with SS4 being the most dominant. The relative degree of contribution of each SS to the pandemic in different continents was also depicted. Identification of these super-spreaders greatly facilitates development of new strategies to control the transmission of SARS-CoV-2.

Tuberculosis outbreak investigation using phylodynamic analysis.

The fast evolution of pathogenic viruses has allowed for the development of phylodynamic approaches that extract information about the epidemiological characteristics of viral genomes. Thanks to advances in whole genome sequencing, they can be applied to slowly evolving bacterial pathogens like Mycobacterium tuberculosis. In this study, we investigate and compare the epidemiological dynamics underlying two M. tuberculosis outbreaks using phylodynamic methods. Specifically, we (i) test if the outbreak data sets contain enough genetic variation to estimate short-term evolutionary rates and (ii) reconstruct epidemiological parameters such as the effective reproduction number. The first outbreak occurred in the Swiss city of Bern (1987-2012) and was caused by a drug-susceptible strain belonging to the phylogenetic M. tuberculosis Lineage 4. The second outbreak was caused by a multidrug-resistant (MDR) strain of Lineage 2, imported from the Wat Tham Krabok (WTK) refugee camp in Thailand into California. There is little temporal signal in the Bern data set and moderate temporal signal in the WTK data set. Thanks to its high sampling proportion (90%) the Bern outbreak allows robust estimation of epidemiological parameters despite the poor temporal signal. Conversely, there is much uncertainty in the epidemiological estimates concerning the sparsely sampled (9%) WTK outbreak. Our results suggest that both outbreaks peaked around 1990, although they were only recognized as outbreaks in 1993 (Bern) and 2004 (WTK). Furthermore, individuals were infected for a significantly longer period (around 9 years) in the WTK outbreak than in the Bern outbreak (4-5 years). Our work highlights both the limitations and opportunities of phylodynamic analysis of outbreaks involving slowly evolving pathogens: (i) estimation of the evolutionary rate is difficult on outbreak time scales and (ii) a high sampling proportion allows quantification of the age of the outbreak based on the sampling times, and thus allows for robust estimation of epidemiological parameters.

Phylogeny and population dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (Rsv) A and B.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of lower respiratory tract infections in infants and young children. RSV is characterised by high variability, especially in the G glycoprotein, which may play a significant role in RSV pathogenicity by allowing immune evasion. To reconstruct the origin and phylodynamic history of RSV, we evaluated the genetic diversity and evolutionary dynamics of RSV A and RSV B isolated from children under 3 years old infected in Italy from 2006 to 2012. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that most of the RSV A sequences clustered with the NA1 genotype, and RSV B sequences were included in the Buenos Aires genotype. The mean evolutionary rates for RSV A and RSV B were estimated to be 2.1 × 10(-3) substitutions (subs)/site/year and 3.03 × 10(-3) subs/site/year, respectively. The time of most recent common ancestor for the tree root went back to the 1940s (95% highest posterior density-HPD: 1927-1951) for RSV A and the 1950s (95%HPD: 1951-1960) for RSV B. The RSV A Bayesian skyline plot (BSP) showed a decrease in transmission events ending in about 2005, when a sharp growth restored the original viral population size. RSV B BSP showed a similar trend. Site-specific selection analysis identified 10 codons under positive selection in RSV A sequences and only one site in RSV B sequences. Although RSV remains difficult to control due to its antigenic diversity, it is important to monitor changes in its coding sequences, to permit the identification of future epidemic strains and to implement vaccine and therapy strategies.