Global, regional, and national burden of other musculoskeletal disorders 1990-2017: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

OBJECTIVES: To describe the level and trends of point prevalence, deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for other musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders, i.e. those not covered by specific estimates generated for RA, OA, low back pain, neck pain and gout, from 1990 to 2017 by age, sex and sociodemographic index. METHODS: Publicly available modelled estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2017 study were extracted and reported as counts and age-standardized rates per 100 000 population for 195 countries and territories between 1990 and 2017. RESULTS: Globally, the age-standardized point prevalence estimates and deaths rates of other MSK disorders in 2017 were 4151.1 and 1.0 per 100 000. This was an increase of 3.4% and 7.2%, respectively. The age-standardized DALY rate in 2017 was 380.2, an increase of 3.4%. The point prevalence estimate was higher among females and increased with age. This peaked in the 65-69 year age group for both females and males in 2017, followed by a decreasing trend for both sexes. At the national level, the highest age-standardized point prevalence estimates in 2017 were seen in Bangladesh, India and Nepal. The largest increases in age-standardized point prevalence estimates were observed in Romania, Croatia and Armenia. CONCLUSION: The burden of other MSK disorders is proven to be substantial and increasing worldwide, with a notable intercountry variation. Data pertaining to specific diseases within this overarching category are required for future GBD MSK estimates. This would enable policymakers to better allocate resources and provide interventions appropriately.

Burden of melanoma in China, 1990-2017: Findings from the 2017 global burden of disease study.

Melanoma is an aggressive form of skin cancer, and a worldwide problem with increasing incidence. Little is known about the burden of melanoma in the Chinese population. We evaluated temporal trends and geographic variation in melanoma-associated burden, to narrow an important knowledge gap concerning the consequences of this disorder across time, provinces in China. After the general analytic strategy used in the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study, we analyzed the incidence, mortality, prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of melanoma, by age, sex and geography from 1990 to 2017. Levels in melanoma burden were assessed for 33 province-level administrative units between 1990 and 2017. We used joinpoint regression analysis to estimate the slope of incidence and mortality trends. The age-standardized incidence rate of melanoma was 0.9 per 100,000 in 2017, with a 110.3% rise compared to 1990. Although the age-standardized DALYs rate (per 100,000) decreased from 9.1 in 1990 to 7.6 in 2017, it showed an upward trend from 2007 to 2017. The DALYs rate increased steadily with age for females while increased and peaked at 55-59 years for males. The incidence of melanoma was higher in the clustered eastern provinces than western provinces, while the DALYs showed a pattern in opposite direction. In China, there has been a substantial increase in the burden of melanoma over the last decade, representing an ongoing challenge in Chinese population. More targeted strategies should be developed for elderly population, especially for females, to reduce the melanoma burden throughout China, particularly the western provinces.

Health effects of dietary risks in 195 countries, 1990-2017: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Suboptimal diet is an important preventable risk factor for non-communicable diseases (NCDs); however, its impact on the burden of NCDs has not been systematically evaluated. This study aimed to evaluate the consumption of major foods and nutrients across 195 countries and to quantify the impact of their suboptimal intake on NCD mortality and morbidity. METHODS: By use of a comparative risk assessment approach, we estimated the proportion of disease-specific burden attributable to each dietary risk factor (also referred to as population attributable fraction) among adults aged 25 years or older. The main inputs to this analysis included the intake of each dietary factor, the effect size of the dietary factor on disease endpoint, and the level of intake associated with the lowest risk of mortality. Then, by use of disease-specific population attributable fractions, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), we calculated the number of deaths and DALYs attributable to diet for each disease outcome. FINDINGS: In 2017, 11 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 10-12) deaths and 255 million (234-274) DALYs were attributable to dietary risk factors. High intake of sodium (3 million [1-5] deaths and 70 million [34-118] DALYs), low intake of whole grains (3 million [2-4] deaths and 82 million [59-109] DALYs), and low intake of fruits (2 million [1-4] deaths and 65 million [41-92] DALYs) were the leading dietary risk factors for deaths and DALYs globally and in many countries. Dietary data were from mixed sources and were not available for all countries, increasing the statistical uncertainty of our estimates. INTERPRETATION: This study provides a comprehensive picture of the potential impact of suboptimal diet on NCD mortality and morbidity, highlighting the need for improving diet across nations. Our findings will inform implementation of evidence-based dietary interventions and provide a platform for evaluation of their impact on human health annually. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Global burden of disease due to smokeless tobacco consumption in adults: an updated analysis of data from 127 countries.

BACKGROUND: Smokeless tobacco (ST) is consumed by more than 300 million people worldwide. The distribution, determinants and health risks of ST differ from that of smoking; hence, there is a need to highlight its distinct health impact. We present the latest estimates of the global burden of disease due to ST use. METHODS: The ST-related disease burden was estimated for all countries reporting its use among adults. Using systematic searches, we first identified country-specific prevalence of ST use in men and women. We then revised our previously published disease risk estimates for oral, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers and cardiovascular diseases by updating our systematic reviews and meta-analyses of observational studies. The updated country-specific prevalence of ST and disease risk estimates, including data up to 2019, allowed us to revise the population attributable fraction (PAF) for ST for each country. Finally, we estimated the disease burden attributable to ST for each country as a proportion of the DALYs lost and deaths reported in the 2017 Global Burden of Disease study. RESULTS: ST use in adults was reported in 127 countries; the highest rates of consumption were in South and Southeast Asia. The risk estimates for cancers were also highest in this region. In 2017, at least 2.5 million DALYs and 90,791 lives were lost across the globe due to oral, pharyngeal and oesophageal cancers that can be attributed to ST. Based on risk estimates obtained from the INTERHEART study, over 6 million DALYs and 258,006 lives were lost from ischaemic heart disease that can be attributed to ST. Three-quarters of the ST-related disease burden was among men. Geographically, > 85% of the ST-related burden was in South and Southeast Asia, India accounting for 70%, Pakistan for 7% and Bangladesh for 5% DALYs lost. CONCLUSIONS: ST is used across the globe and poses a major public health threat predominantly in South and Southeast Asia. While our disease risk estimates are based on a limited evidence of modest quality, the likely ST-related disease burden is substantial. In high-burden countries, ST use needs to be regulated through comprehensive implementation of the World Health Organization Framework Convention for Tobacco Control.

A surveillance method to identify patients with sepsis from electronic health records in Hong Kong: a single centre retrospective study.

BACKGROUND: Currently there are only two population studies on sepsis incidence in Asia. The burden of sepsis in Hong Kong is unknown. We developed a sepsis surveillance method to estimate sepsis incidence from a population electronic health record (EHR) in Hong Kong using objective clinical data. The study objective was to assess our method's performance in identifying sepsis using a retrospective cohort. We compared its accuracy to administrative sepsis surveillance methods such as Angus' and Martin's methods. METHOD: In this single centre retrospective study we applied our sepsis surveillance method on adult patients admitted to a tertiary hospital in Hong Kong. Two clinicians independently reviewed the clinical notes to determine which patients had sepsis. Performance was assessed by sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value and area under the curve (AUC) of Angus', Martin's and our surveillance methods using clinical review as "gold standard." RESULTS: Between January 1 and February 28, 2018, our sepsis surveillance method identified 1352 adult patients hospitalised with suspected infection. We found that 38.9% (95%CI 36.3-41.5) of these patients had sepsis. Using a 490 patient validation cohort, two clinicians had good agreement with weighted kappa of 0.75 (95% CI 0.69-0.81) before coming to consensus on diagnosis of uncomplicated infection or sepsis for all patients. Our method had sensitivity 0.93 (95%CI 0.89-0.96), specificity 0.86 (95%CI 0.82-0.90) and an AUC 0.90 (95%CI 0.87-0.92) when validated against clinician review. In contrast, Angus' and Martin's methods had AUCs 0.56 (95%CI 0.53-0.58) and 0.56 (95%CI 0.52-0.59), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A sepsis surveillance method based on objective data from a population EHR in Hong Kong was more accurate than administrative methods. It may be used to estimate sepsis population incidence and outcomes in Hong Kong. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was retrospectively registered at clinicaltrials.gov on October 3, 2019 ( NCT04114214 ).

The trends in incidence of primary liver cancer caused by specific etiologies: Results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016 and implications for liver cancer prevention.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Liver cancer is a common malignant neoplasm worldwide. The etiologies for liver cancer are diverse and the incidence trends of liver cancer caused by specific etiologies are rarely studied. We therefore aimed to determine the pattern of liver cancer incidence, as well as temporal trends. METHODS: We collected detailed information on liver cancer etiology between 1990-2016, derived from the Global Burden of Disease study in 2016. Estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) in liver cancer age standardized incidence rate (ASR), by sex, region, and etiology, were calculated to quantify the temporal trends in liver cancer ASR. RESULTS: Globally, incident cases of liver cancer increased 114.0% from 471,000 in 1990 to 1,007,800 in 2016. The overall ASR increased by an average 0.34% (95% CI 0.22%-0.45%) per year in this period. The ASR of liver cancer due to hepatitis B, hepatitis C, and other causes increased between 1990 and 2016. The corresponding EAPCs were 0.22 (95% CI 0.08-0.36), 0.57 (95% CI 0.48-0.66), and 0.51 (95% CI 0.41-0.62), respectively. The ASR of liver cancer due to reported alcohol use remained stable (EAPC = 0.10, 95% CI -0.06-0.25). This increasing pattern was heterogeneous across regions and countries. The most pronounced increases were generally observed in countries with a high socio-demographic index, including the Netherlands, the UK, and the USA. CONCLUSIONS: Liver cancer remains a major public health concern globally, though control of hepatitis B and C virus infections has contributed to the decreasing incidence in some regions. We observed an unfavorable trend in countries with a high socio-demographic index, suggesting that current prevention strategies should be reoriented, and much more targeted and specific strategies should be established in some countries to forestall the increase in liver cancer. LAY SUMMARY: Liver cancer is a common malignant neoplasm worldwide. The incidence patterns of liver cancer caused by different etiologies varied considerably across the world. In this study, we aim to determine the pattern of liver cancer incidence as well as the temporal trends, thereby facilitating the establishment of more tailored prevention strategies for liver cancer.

Socioeconomic status and stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and worldwide burden: an ecological analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017.

BACKGROUND: Socioeconomic status (SES) is associated with stroke incidence and mortality. Distribution of stroke risk factors is changing worldwide; evidence on these trends is crucial to the allocation of resources for prevention strategies to tackle major modifiable risk factors with the highest impact on stroke burden. METHODS: We extracted data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017. We analysed trends in global and SES-specific age-standardised stroke incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost from 1990 to 2017. We also estimated the age-standardised attributable risk of stroke mortality associated with common risk factors in low-, low-middle-, upper-middle-, and high-income countries. Further, we explored the effect of age and sex on associations of risk factors with stroke mortality from 1990 to 2017. RESULTS: Despite a growth in crude number of stroke events from 1990 to 2017, there has been an 11.3% decrease in age-standardised stroke incidence rate worldwide (150.5, 95% uncertainty interval [UI] 140.3-161.8 per 100,000 in 2017). This has been accompanied by an overall 3.1% increase in age-standardised stroke prevalence rate (1300.6, UI 1229.0-1374.7 per 100,000 in 2017) and a 33.4% decrease in age-standardised stroke mortality rate (80.5, UI 78.9-82.6 per 100,000 in 2017) over the same time period. The rising trends in age-standardised stroke prevalence have been observed only in middle-income countries, despite declining trends in age-standardised stroke incidence and mortality in all income categories since 2005. Further, there has been almost a 34% reduction in stroke death rate (67.8, UI 64.1-71.1 per 100,000 in 2017) attributable to modifiable risk factors, more prominently in wealthier countries. CONCLUSIONS: Almost half of stroke-related deaths are attributable to poor management of modifiable risk factors, and thus potentially preventable. We should appreciate societal barriers in lower-SES groups to design tailored preventive strategies. Despite improvements in general health knowledge, access to healthcare, and preventative strategies, SES is still strongly associated with modifiable risk factors and stroke burden; thus, screening of people from low SES at higher stroke risk is crucial.

Burden and trend of diet-related non-communicable diseases in Australia and comparison with 34 OECD countries, 1990-2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

BACKGROUND: Diet is a major determining factor for many non-communicable chronic diseases (NCDs). However, evidence on diet-related NCD burden remains limited. We assessed the trends in diet-related NCDs in Australia from 1990 to 2015 and compared the results with other countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). METHODS: We used data and methods from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2015 study to estimate the NCD mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to 14 dietary risk factors in Australia and 34 OECD nations. Countries were further ranked from the lowest (first) to highest (35th) burden using an age-standardized population attributable fraction (PAF). RESULTS: In 2015, the estimated number of deaths attributable to dietary risks was 29,414 deaths [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 24,697 - 34,058 or 19.7% of NCD deaths] and 443,385 DALYs (95% UI 377,680-511,388 or 9.5% of NCD DALYs) in Australia. Young (25-49 years) and middle-age (50-69 years) male adults had a higher PAF of diet-related NCD deaths and DALYs than their female counterparts. Diets low in fruits, vegetables, nuts and seeds and whole grains, but high in sodium, were the major contributors to both NCD deaths and DALYs. Overall, 42.3% of cardiovascular deaths were attributable to dietary risk factors. The age-standardized PAF of diet-related NCD mortality and DALYs decreased over the study period by 28.2% (from 27.0% in 1990 to 19.4% in 2015) and 41.0% (from 14.3% in 1990 to 8.4% in 2015), respectively. In 2015, Australia ranked 12th of 35 examined countries in diet-related mortality. A small improvement of rank was recorded compared to the previous 25 years. CONCLUSIONS: Despite a reduction in diet-related NCD burden over 25 years, dietary risks are still the major contributors to a high burden of NCDs in Australia. Interventions targeting NCDs should focus on dietary behaviours of individuals and population groups.

Burden of gout in the Nordic region, 1990-2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the burden of gout in the Nordic region, with a population around 27 million in 2015 distributed across six countries. METHOD: We used the findings of the 2015 Global Burden of Diseases study to report prevalence and disability associated with gout in the Nordic region. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2015, the number of prevalent gout cases rose by 30% to 252 967 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 223 478‒287 288] in the Nordic region. In 2015, gout contributed to 7982 (95% UI 5431‒10 800) years lived with disability (YLDs) in the region, an increase of 29% (95% UI 24‒35%) from 1990. While the crude YLD rate of gout increased by 12.9% (95% UI 7.8‒18.1%) between 1990 and 2015, the age-standardized YLD rate remained stable. Gout was ranked as the 63rd leading cause of total YLDs in the region in 2015, with the highest rank in men aged 55-59 years (38th leading cause of YLDs). The corresponding rank at the global level was 94. Of 195 countries studied, four Nordic countries [Greenland (2nd), Iceland (12th), Finland (14th), and Sweden (15th)] were among the top 15 countries with the highest age-standardized YLD rate of gout. CONCLUSION: The burden of gout is rising in the Nordic region. Gout's contribution to the total burden of diseases in the region is more significant than the global average. Expected increases in gout burden owing to population growth and ageing call for stronger preventive and therapeutic strategies for gout management in Nordic countries.

Applying methods of the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study to developmental neurotoxicants: a commentary.

The purpose of this commentary is to consider whether the methods of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) can provide accurate estimates of the impact of developmental neurotoxicant exposures on population health. The discussion focuses on two concerns. First, GBD implicitly largely endorses a "high risk" or "disease" approach to estimating health loss rather than a "population-based" approach. Exposure to many developmental neurotoxicants is highly prevalent but, for most individuals, it does not affect functional health to such an extent that diagnostic criteria for a disease are met. Nevertheless, the impacts are real and can be substantial when viewed in terms of the aggregate impact on a population. Second, in GBD the disability weights used for the most common sequelae of developmental neurotoxicant exposures, based on judgments provided by general population respondents, are not commensurate with the import that these sequelae have for an individual's lifelong well-being, including their ability to fulfill educational, occupational, and social potential. It would be unfortunate if priorities were set or policy decisions made based on how developmental neurotoxicants compare to other risk factors using the current GBD methods.

The prevalence and burden of bipolar disorder: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013.

OBJECTIVES: We present the global burden of bipolar disorder based on findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013). METHODS: Data on the epidemiology of bipolar disorder were obtained from a systematic literature review and assembled using Bayesian meta-regression modelling to produce prevalence by country, age, sex and year. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were estimated by multiplying prevalence by disability weights quantifying the severity of the health loss associated with bipolar disorder. As there were no years of life lost (YLLs) attributed to bipolar disorder, YLDs equated to disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) as a measure of total burden. RESULTS: There were 32.7 million cases of bipolar disorder globally in 1990 and 48.8 million in 2013; equivalent to a 49.1% increase in prevalent cases, all accounted for by population increase and ageing. Bipolar disorder accounted for 9.9 million DALYs in 2013, explaining 0.4% of total DALYs and 1.3% of total YLDs. There were 5.5 million DALYs recorded for female individuals and 4.4 million for male individuals. DALYs were evident from age 10 years, peaked in the 20s, and decreased thereafter. DALYs were relatively constant geographically. CONCLUSIONS: Despite being relatively rare, bipolar disorder is a disabling illness due to its early onset, severity and chronicity. Population growth and aging are leading to an increase in the burden of bipolar disorder over time. It is important that resources be directed towards improving the coverage of evidence-based intervention strategies for bipolar disorder and establishing strategies to prevent new cases of the disorder.

Disease burden attributed to alcohol: How methodological advances in the Global Burden of Disease 2013 study have changed the estimates in Sweden.

AIM: The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study continuously refines its estimates as new data and methods become available. In the latest iteration of the study, GBD 2013, changes were made related to the disease burden attributed to alcohol. The aim of this study was to briefly present these changes and to compare the disease burden attributed to alcohol in Swedish men and women in 2010 using previous and updated methods. METHODS: In the GBD study, the contribution of alcohol to the burden of disease is estimated by theoretically assessing how much of the disease burden can be avoided by reducing the consumption of alcohol to zero. The updated methods mainly consider improved measurements of alcohol consumption, including less severe alcohol dependence, assigning the most severe injuries and removing the protective effect of drinking on cardiovascular diseases if combined with binge drinking. RESULTS: The overall disease burden attributed to alcohol in 2010 increased by 14% when using the updated methods. Women accounted for this overall increase, mainly because the updated methods led to an overall higher alcohol consumption in women. By contrast, the overall burden decreased in men, one reason being the lower overall alcohol consumption with the new methods. In men, the inclusion of less severe alcohol dependence resulted in a large decrease in the alcohol attributed disease burden. This was, however, evened out to a great extent by the increase in cardiovascular disease and injuries. CONCLUSIONS WHEN USING THE UPDATED GBD METHODS, THE OVERALL DISEASE BURDEN ATTRIBUTED TO ALCOHOL INCREASED IN WOMEN, BUT NOT IN MEN.

Data-driven methods for imputing national-level incidence in global burden of disease studies.

OBJECTIVE: To develop transparent and reproducible methods for imputing missing data on disease incidence at national-level for the year 2005. METHODS: We compared several models for imputing missing country-level incidence rates for two foodborne diseases - congenital toxoplasmosis and aflatoxin-related hepatocellular carcinoma. Missing values were assumed to be missing at random. Predictor variables were selected using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression. We compared the predictive performance of naive extrapolation approaches and Bayesian random and mixed-effects regression models. Leave-one-out cross-validation was used to evaluate model accuracy. FINDINGS: The predictive accuracy of the Bayesian mixed-effects models was significantly better than that of the naive extrapolation method for one of the two disease models. However, Bayesian mixed-effects models produced wider prediction intervals for both data sets. CONCLUSION: Several approaches are available for imputing missing data at national level. Strengths of a hierarchical regression approach for this type of task are the ability to derive estimates from other similar countries, transparency, computational efficiency and ease of interpretation. The inclusion of informative covariates may improve model performance, but results should be appraised carefully.

Global, regional, and national burden of respiratory tract cancers and associated risk factors from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Prevention, control, and treatment of respiratory tract cancers are important steps towards achieving target 3.4 of the UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)-a one-third reduction in premature mortality due to non-communicable diseases by 2030. We aimed to provide global, regional, and national estimates of the burden of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer and their attributable risks from 1990 to 2019. METHODS: Based on the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 methodology, we evaluated the incidence, mortality, years lived with disability, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) of respiratory tract cancers (ie, tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer). Deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer attributable to each risk factor were estimated on the basis of risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level input from 204 countries and territories, stratified by sex and Socio-demographic Index (SDI). Trends were estimated from 1990 to 2019, with an emphasis on the 2010-19 period. FINDINGS: Globally, there were 2·26 million (95% uncertainty interval 2·07 to 2·45) new cases of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer, and 2·04 million (1·88 to 2·19) deaths and 45·9 million (42·3 to 49·3) DALYs due to tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer in 2019. There were 209 000 (194 000 to 225 000) new cases of larynx cancer, and 123 000 (115 000 to 133 000) deaths and 3·26 million (3·03 to 3·51) DALYs due to larynx cancer globally in 2019. From 2010 to 2019, the number of new tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer cases increased by 23·3% (12·9 to 33·6) globally and the number of larynx cancer cases increased by 24·7% (16·0 to 34·1) globally. Global age-standardised incidence rates of tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer decreased by 7·4% (-16·8 to 1·6) and age-standardised incidence rates of larynx cancer decreased by 3·0% (-10·5 to 5·0) in males over the past decade; however, during the same period, age-standardised incidence rates in females increased by 0·9% (-8·2 to 10·2) for tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and decreased by 0·5% (-8·4 to 8·1) for larynx cancer. Furthermore, although age-standardised incidence and death rates declined in both sexes combined from 2010 to 2019 at the global level for tracheal, bronchus, lung and larynx cancers, some locations had rising rates, particularly those on the lower end of the SDI range. Smoking contributed to an estimated 64·2% (61·9-66·4) of all deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and 63·4% (56·3-69·3) of all deaths from larynx cancer in 2019. For males and for both sexes combined, smoking was the leading specific risk factor for age-standardised deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer per 100 000 in all SDI quintiles and GBD regions in 2019. However, among females, household air pollution from solid fuels was the leading specific risk factor in the low SDI quintile and in three GBD regions (central, eastern, and western sub-Saharan Africa) in 2019. INTERPRETATION: The numbers of incident cases and deaths from tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer and larynx cancer increased globally during the past decade. Even more concerning, age-standardised incidence and death rates due to tracheal, bronchus, lung cancer and larynx cancer increased in some populations-namely, in the lower SDI quintiles and among females. Preventive measures such as smoking control interventions, air quality management programmes focused on major air pollution sources, and widespread access to clean energy should be prioritised in these settings. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Burden of vision loss due to diabetic retinopathy in China from 1990 to 2017: findings from the global burden of disease study.

PURPOSE: To conduct a detailed analysis on the burden of vision loss due to diabetic retinopathy (DR) by year, age and gender in China from 1990 to 2017. METHODS: This is a between-country, retrospective, comparative burden-of-disease study. Prevalence and Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) data caused by DR in China and relative territories were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study 2017 to observe the changing trends of vision loss. RESULTS: Prevalence and YLDs of DR in China increased significantly from 1990 to 2017. The age-standardized prevalence and YLDs rate witnessed a slowly declining trend recently. Higher prevalence and YLDs were observed in female subjects in the past three decades. Middle-aged and elderly people suffered from a higher burden of DR-induced vision loss. The total age-standardized prevalence rate of China in 1990 (17.68) and 2017 (21.88) was lower than that of other seven neighbouring countries. In 2017, moderate vision loss (MVL) (17.19) accounted for the largest proportion in China. The all-age YLDs of DR showed the second-highest increase (150.26%) while the age-standardized YLDs rate showed the third-highest increase (14.91%) among fifteen common causes of vision impairment (VI) from 1990 to 2017. China ranked 3rd among G20 countries in terms of all-age YLDs while ranked 18th in age-standardized YLDs rate in 2017. CONCLUSIONS: In the past three decades, the prevalence and YLDs due to DR in China have improved in both genders. This study highlights the importance of prevention for DR, especially for women and the elderly.

Quantifying non-communicable diseases' burden in Egypt using State-Space model.

The study aimed to model and quantify the health burden induced by four non-communicable diseases (NCDs) in Egypt, the first to be conducted in the context of a less developing county. The study used the State-Space model and adopted two Bayesian methods: Particle Filter and Particle Independent Metropolis-Hastings to model and estimate the NCDs' health burden trajectories. We drew on time-series data of the International Health Metric Evaluation, the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS) Annual Bulletin of Health Services Statistics, the World Bank, and WHO data. Both Bayesian methods showed that the burden trajectories are on the rise. Most of the findings agreed with our assumptions and are in line with the literature. Previous year burden strongly predicts the burden of the current year. High prevalence of the risk factors, disease prevalence, and the disease's severity level all increase illness burden. Years of life lost due to death has high loadings in most of the diseases. Contrary to the study assumption, results found a negative relationship between disease burden and health services utilization which can be attributed to the lack of full health insurance coverage and the pattern of health care seeking behavior in Egypt. Our study highlights that Particle Independent Metropolis-Hastings is sufficient in estimating the parameters of the study model, in the case of time-constant parameters. The study recommends using state Space models with Bayesian estimation approaches with time-series data in public health and epidemiology research.