Economic evaluation of sea-level rise adaptation strongly influenced by hydrodynamic feedbacks.

Coastal communities rely on levees and seawalls as critical protection against sea-level rise; in the United States alone, $300 billion in shoreline armoring costs are forecast by 2100. However, despite the local flood risk reduction benefits, these structures can exacerbate flooding and associated damages along other parts of the shoreline-particularly in coastal bays and estuaries, where nearly 500 million people globally are at risk from sea-level rise. The magnitude and spatial distribution of the economic impact of this dynamic, however, are poorly understood. Here we combine hydrodynamic and economic models to assess the extent of both local and regional flooding and damages expected from a range of shoreline protection and sea-level rise scenarios in San Francisco Bay, California. We find that protection of individual shoreline segments (5 to 75 km) can increase flooding in other areas by as much as 36 million m3 and damages by $723 million for a single flood event and in some cases can even cause regional flood damages that exceed the local damages prevented from protection. We also demonstrate that strategic flooding of certain shoreline segments, such as those with gradually sloping baylands and space for water storage, can help alleviate flooding and damages along other stretches of the coastline. By matching the scale of the economic assessment to the scale of the threat, we reveal the previously uncounted costs associated with uncoordinated adaptation actions and demonstrate that a regional planning perspective is essential for reducing shared risk and wisely spending adaptation resources in coastal bays.

Impact of heavy precipitation events on pathogen occurrence in estuarine areas of the Puzi River in Taiwan.

Pathogen populations in estuarine areas are dynamic, as they are subject to multiple natural and anthropogenic challenges. Heavy rainfall events bring instability to the aquatic environment in estuaries, causing changes in pathogen populations and increased environmental sanitation and public health concerns. In this study, we investigated the effects of heavy precipitation on the occurrence of pathogens in the Puzi River estuary, which is adjacent to the largest inshore oyster farming area in Taiwan. Our results indicated that Vibrio parahaemolyticus and adenovirus were the most frequently detected pathogens in the area. There was a significant difference (Mann-Whitney U test, p < 0.01) in water quality parameters, including total coliform, Escherichia coli, water temperature, turbidity, salinity, and dissolved oxygen, between groups with and without V. parahaemolyticus. In addition, the detection rate was negatively correlated with the average daily rainfall (r2 > 0.8). There was no significant difference between water quality parameters and the presence/absence of adenovirus, but a positive correlation was observed between the average daily rainfall and the detection rate of adenovirus (r2 ≥ 0.75). We conclude that heavy precipitation changes estuarine water quality, causing variations in microbial composition, including pathogens. As extreme weather events become more frequent due to climate change, the potential impacts of severe weather events on estuarine environments require further investigation.

The socioeconomic future of deltas in a changing environment.

Deltas are especially vulnerable to climate change given their low-lying location and exposure to storm surges, coastal and fluvial flooding, sea level rise and subsidence. Increases in such events and other circumstances are contributing to the change in the environmental conditions in the deltas, which translates into changes in the productivity of ecosystems and, ultimately, into impacts on livelihoods and human well-being. Accordingly, climate change will affect not only the biophysical conditions of deltaic environments but also their economic circumstances. Furthermore, these economic implications will spill over to other regions through goods and services supply chains and via migration. In this paper we take a wider view about some of the specific studies within this Special Issue. We analyse the extent to which the biophysical context of the deltas contributes to the sustainability of the different economic activities, in the deltas and in other regions. We construct a set of environmental-extended multiregional input-output databases and Social Accounting Matrices that are used to trace the flow of provisioning ecosystem services across the supply chains, providing a view of the links between the biophysical environment and the economic activities. We also integrate this information into a Computable General Equilibrium model to assess how the changes in the provision of natural resources due to climate change can potentially affect the economies of the deltas and linked regions, and how this in turn affects economic vulnerability and sustainability in these regions.

A user's guide to coping with estuarine management bureaucracy: An Estuarine Planning Support System (EPSS) tool.

Estuaries are amongst the most socio-economically and ecologically important environments however, due to competing and conflicting demands, management is often challenging with a complex legislative framework managed by multiple agencies. To facilitate the understanding of this legislative framework, we have developed a GISbased Estuarine Planning Support System tool. The tool integrates the requirements of the relevant legislation and provides a basis for assessing the current environmental state of an estuary as well as informing and assessing new plans to ensure a healthy estuarine state. The tool ensures that the information is easily accessible for regulators, managers, developers and the public. The tool is intended to be adaptable, but is assessed using the Humber Estuary, United Kingdom as a case study area. The successful application of the tool for complex socio-economic and environmental systems demonstrates that the tool can efficiently guide users through the complex requirements needed to support sustainable development.

Role and value of nitrogen regulation provided by oysters (Crassostrea virginica) in the Mission-Aransas Estuary, Texas, USA.

Suspension-feeding activities of oysters impart a potentially significant benefit to estuarine ecosystems via reduction of water column nutrients, plankton and seston biomass, and primary productivity which can have a significant impact on human well-being. This study considered nitrogen regulation by eastern oysters Crassostrea virginica in the Mission-Aransas Estuary, Texas, USA, as a function of denitrification, burial, and physical transport from the system via harvest. Oyster reefs were estimated to remove 502.5 kg N km(-2) through denitrification of biodeposits and 251.3 kg N km(-2) in burial of biodeposits to sediments. Nitrogen is also physically transported out of the estuary via harvest of oysters. Commercial harvest of oysters in the Mission-Aransas Estuary can remove approximately 21,665 kg N per year via physical transport from the system. We developed a transferable method to value the service of nitrogen regulation by oysters, where the potential cost equivalent value of nitrogen regulation is quantified via cost estimates for a constructed biological nutrient removal (BNR) supplement to a wastewater treatment plant. The potential annual engineered cost equivalent of the service of nitrogen regulation and removal provided by reefs in the Mission-Aransas Estuary is $293,993 yr(-1). Monetizing ecosystem services can help increase awareness at the stakeholder level of the importance of oysters beyond commercial fishery values alone.