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1.
Cell ; 160(1-2): 132-44, 2015 Jan 15.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25542313

RESUMO

Dietary restriction (DR) without malnutrition encompasses numerous regimens with overlapping benefits including longevity and stress resistance, but unifying nutritional and molecular mechanisms remain elusive. In a mouse model of DR-mediated stress resistance, we found that sulfur amino acid (SAA) restriction increased expression of the transsulfuration pathway (TSP) enzyme cystathionine γ-lyase (CGL), resulting in increased hydrogen sulfide (H2S) production and protection from hepatic ischemia reperfusion injury. SAA supplementation, mTORC1 activation, or chemical/genetic CGL inhibition reduced H2S production and blocked DR-mediated stress resistance. In vitro, the mitochondrial protein SQR was required for H2S-mediated protection during nutrient/oxygen deprivation. Finally, TSP-dependent H2S production was observed in yeast, worm, fruit fly, and rodent models of DR-mediated longevity. Together, these data are consistent with evolutionary conservation of TSP-mediated H2S as a mediator of DR benefits with broad implications for clinical translation. PAPERFLICK:


Assuntos
Dieta , Sulfeto de Hidrogênio/metabolismo , Animais , Evolução Biológica , Caenorhabditis elegans/fisiologia , Restrição Calórica , Cistationina gama-Liase/metabolismo , Cisteína/metabolismo , Drosophila melanogaster/fisiologia , Feminino , Rim/irrigação sanguínea , Rim/lesões , Expectativa de Vida , Fígado/irrigação sanguínea , Fígado/lesões , Masculino , Metionina/metabolismo , Camundongos Knockout , Fator 2 Relacionado a NF-E2/genética , Fator 2 Relacionado a NF-E2/metabolismo , Traumatismo por Reperfusão , Transdução de Sinais , Estresse Fisiológico , Transcriptoma , Leveduras/fisiologia
2.
Cell ; 156(3): 398-9, 2014 Jan 30.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-24485449

RESUMO

Two recent studies identify how sex-specific pheromonal factors in flies and worms alter lifespan through metabolic pathways that are shared with mammals. Sex differences in human lifespans imply nonautonomous effects modulated by sex-specific gene-environment interactions that could still include pheromonal mechanisms.


Assuntos
Envelhecimento , Expectativa de Vida , Modelos Animais , Animais , Feminino , Interação Gene-Ambiente , Humanos , Masculino , Caracteres Sexuais
3.
Cell ; 159(1): 15-19, 2014 Sep 25.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25259916

RESUMO

The 40(th) anniversary of Cell coincides with that of the National Institute on Aging (NIA). Indeed, Cell papers on NIA-funded research helped move the field into a genetic and molecular era. Now is a fair time to ask whether we are far down a trail leading to a deep understanding of aging or whether we are still tiptoeing cautiously at the trailhead.


Assuntos
Envelhecimento , Pesquisa Biomédica , Envelhecimento/genética , Envelhecimento/metabolismo , Animais , Humanos , Expectativa de Vida , National Institute on Aging (U.S.) , Estados Unidos
4.
Nature ; 618(7965): 575-582, 2023 Jun.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37258664

RESUMO

Poverty is an important social determinant of health that is associated with increased risk of death1-5. Cash transfer programmes provide non-contributory monetary transfers to individuals or households, with or without behavioural conditions such as children's school attendance6,7. Over recent decades, cash transfer programmes have emerged as central components of poverty reduction strategies of many governments in low- and middle-income countries6,7. The effects of these programmes on adult and child mortality rates remains an important gap in the literature, however, with existing evidence limited to a few specific conditional cash transfer programmes, primarily in Latin America8-14. Here we evaluated the effects of large-scale, government-led cash transfer programmes on all-cause adult and child mortality using individual-level longitudinal mortality datasets from many low- and middle-income countries. We found that cash transfer programmes were associated with significant reductions in mortality among children under five years of age and women. Secondary heterogeneity analyses suggested similar effects for conditional and unconditional programmes, and larger effects for programmes that covered a larger share of the population and provided larger transfer amounts, and in countries with lower health expenditures, lower baseline life expectancy, and higher perceived regulatory quality. Our findings support the use of anti-poverty programmes such as cash transfers, which many countries have introduced or expanded during the COVID-19 pandemic, to improve population health.


Assuntos
Mortalidade da Criança , Países em Desenvolvimento , Mortalidade , Pobreza , Adulto , Pré-Escolar , Feminino , Humanos , Mortalidade da Criança/tendências , COVID-19/economia , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Países em Desenvolvimento/economia , Pobreza/economia , Pobreza/prevenção & controle , Pobreza/estatística & dados numéricos , Expectativa de Vida , Gastos em Saúde/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde Pública/métodos , Saúde Pública/estatística & dados numéricos , Saúde Pública/tendências , Mortalidade/tendências
5.
Annu Rev Biochem ; 80: 885-916, 2011.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21495846

RESUMO

Sterol metabolites are critical signaling molecules that regulate metabolism, development, and homeostasis. Oxysterols, bile acids (BAs), and steroids work primarily through cognate sterol-responsive nuclear hormone receptors to control these processes through feed-forward and feedback mechanisms. These signaling pathways are conserved from simple invertebrates to mammals. Indeed, results from various model organisms have yielded fundamental insights into cholesterol and BA homeostasis, lipid and glucose metabolism, protective mechanisms, tissue differentiation, development, reproduction, and even aging. Here, we review how sterols act through evolutionarily ancient mechanisms to control these processes.


Assuntos
Metabolismo Energético , Crescimento e Desenvolvimento , Homeostase/fisiologia , Esteróis/metabolismo , Animais , Evolução Molecular , Jejum , Glucose/metabolismo , Humanos , Imunidade , Expectativa de Vida , Metabolismo dos Lipídeos , Receptores X do Fígado , Receptores Nucleares Órfãos/metabolismo , Receptores Citoplasmáticos e Nucleares/metabolismo , Transdução de Sinais/fisiologia , Esteróis/química
6.
Immunol Rev ; 314(1): 357-375, 2023 03.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-36315403

RESUMO

Over the past millennia, life expectancy has drastically increased. While a mere 25 years during Bronze and Iron ages, life expectancy in many European countries and in Japan is currently above 80 years. Such an increase in life expectancy is a result of improved diet, life style, and medical care. Yet, increased life span and aging also represent the most important non-modifiable risk factors for several pathologies including cardiovascular disease, neurodegenerative diseases, and cancer. In recent years, neutrophils have been implicated in all of these pathologies. Hence, this review provides an overview of how aging impacts neutrophil production and function and conversely how neutrophils drive aging-associated pathologies. Finally, we provide a perspective on how processes of neutrophil-driven pathologies in the context of aging can be targeted therapeutically.


Assuntos
Envelhecimento , Neutrófilos , Humanos , Longevidade , Expectativa de Vida , Fatores de Risco
7.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(42): e2308360120, 2023 10 17.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37812715

RESUMO

Since 2010, US life expectancy growth has stagnated. Much research on US mortality has focused on working-age adults given adverse trends in drug overdose deaths, other external causes of death, and cardiometabolic deaths in midlife. We show that the adverse mortality trend at retirement ages (65+ y) has in fact been more consequential to the US life expectancy stagnation since 2010, as well as excess deaths and years of life lost in 2019, than adverse mortality trends at working ages. These results reveal that the United States is experiencing a "double jeopardy" that is driven by both mid-life and older-age mortality trends, but more so by older-age mortality. Understanding and addressing the causes behind the worsening mortality trend in older ages will be essential to returning to the pace of life expectancy improvements that the United States had experienced for decades.


Assuntos
Overdose de Drogas , Expectativa de Vida , Adulto , Humanos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Teoria Ética , Aposentadoria , Mortalidade , Causas de Morte
8.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(36): e2303574120, 2023 09 05.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37603728

RESUMO

Our understanding of prehistoric societal organization at the family level is still limited. Here, we generated genome data from 32 individuals from an approximately 3,800-y-old burial mound attributed to the Bronze Age Srubnaya-Alakul cultural tradition at the site of Nepluyevsky, located in the Southern Ural region of Central Eurasia. We found that life expectancy was generally very low, with adult males living on average 8 y longer than females. A total of 35 first-degree, 40 second-degree, and 48 third-degree biological relationships connected 23 of the studied individuals, allowing us to propose a family tree spanning three generations with six brothers at its center. The oldest of these brothers had eight children with two women and the most children overall, whereas the other relationships were monogamous. Notably, related female children above the age of five were completely absent from the site, and adult females were more genetically diverse than males. These results suggest that biological relationships between male siblings played a structural role in society and that descent group membership was based on patrilineality. Women originated from a larger mating network and moved to join the men, with whom they were buried. Finally, the oldest brother likely held a higher social position, which was expressed in terms of fertility.


Assuntos
Sepultamento , Casamento , Adulto , Masculino , Criança , Humanos , Feminino , Comunicação Celular , Fertilidade , Expectativa de Vida
9.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 120(28): e2301983120, 2023 07 11.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37406094

RESUMO

Trends in life expectancy and marriage patterns work together to determine expected lifetime years married. In 1880, adult life expectancy was short and marriages were more likely to end by death than divorce. Since then, although there have been substantial life expectancy gains in adulthood, marriage has been increasingly delayed or forgone and cohabitation and divorce are far more prevalent. Whether adults today can expect to spend more or fewer years married than in the past depends on the relative magnitude of changes in mortality and marriage. We estimate trends in men's expected lifetime years married (and in other marital statuses) from 1880 to 2019 and by bachelor's degree (BA) status from 1960 to 2019. Our results show a rise in men's expected lifetime years married between 1880 and the Baby Boom era and a subsequent fall. There are large and growing differences by BA status. Men with a BA have had high and relatively stable expected lifetime years married since 1960. For men without a BA, expected lifetime years married has plummeted to lows not seen among men since 1880. Cohabitation accounts for a substantial fraction, although not all, of these declines. Our results demonstrate how increasing inequality in both life expectancy and marriage patterns combine to amplify educational differences in lifetime experiences of coresidential partnerships.


Assuntos
Casamento , Escolaridade , Divórcio , Humanos , Masculino , Adolescente , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Idoso , Expectativa de Vida , Características da Família
10.
Lancet ; 403(10440): 2204-2256, 2024 May 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38762325

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Future trends in disease burden and drivers of health are of great interest to policy makers and the public at large. This information can be used for policy and long-term health investment, planning, and prioritisation. We have expanded and improved upon previous forecasts produced as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) and provide a reference forecast (the most likely future), and alternative scenarios assessing disease burden trajectories if selected sets of risk factors were eliminated from current levels by 2050. METHODS: Using forecasts of major drivers of health such as the Socio-demographic Index (SDI; a composite measure of lag-distributed income per capita, mean years of education, and total fertility under 25 years of age) and the full set of risk factor exposures captured by GBD, we provide cause-specific forecasts of mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) by age and sex from 2022 to 2050 for 204 countries and territories, 21 GBD regions, seven super-regions, and the world. All analyses were done at the cause-specific level so that only risk factors deemed causal by the GBD comparative risk assessment influenced future trajectories of mortality for each disease. Cause-specific mortality was modelled using mixed-effects models with SDI and time as the main covariates, and the combined impact of causal risk factors as an offset in the model. At the all-cause mortality level, we captured unexplained variation by modelling residuals with an autoregressive integrated moving average model with drift attenuation. These all-cause forecasts constrained the cause-specific forecasts at successively deeper levels of the GBD cause hierarchy using cascading mortality models, thus ensuring a robust estimate of cause-specific mortality. For non-fatal measures (eg, low back pain), incidence and prevalence were forecasted from mixed-effects models with SDI as the main covariate, and YLDs were computed from the resulting prevalence forecasts and average disability weights from GBD. Alternative future scenarios were constructed by replacing appropriate reference trajectories for risk factors with hypothetical trajectories of gradual elimination of risk factor exposure from current levels to 2050. The scenarios were constructed from various sets of risk factors: environmental risks (Safer Environment scenario), risks associated with communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases (CMNNs; Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination scenario), risks associated with major non-communicable diseases (NCDs; Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario), and the combined effects of these three scenarios. Using the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways climate scenarios SSP2-4.5 as reference and SSP1-1.9 as an optimistic alternative in the Safer Environment scenario, we accounted for climate change impact on health by using the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change temperature forecasts and published trajectories of ambient air pollution for the same two scenarios. Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were computed using standard methods. The forecasting framework includes computing the age-sex-specific future population for each location and separately for each scenario. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for each individual future estimate were derived from the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles of distributions generated from propagating 500 draws through the multistage computational pipeline. FINDINGS: In the reference scenario forecast, global and super-regional life expectancy increased from 2022 to 2050, but improvement was at a slower pace than in the three decades preceding the COVID-19 pandemic (beginning in 2020). Gains in future life expectancy were forecasted to be greatest in super-regions with comparatively low life expectancies (such as sub-Saharan Africa) compared with super-regions with higher life expectancies (such as the high-income super-region), leading to a trend towards convergence in life expectancy across locations between now and 2050. At the super-region level, forecasted healthy life expectancy patterns were similar to those of life expectancies. Forecasts for the reference scenario found that health will improve in the coming decades, with all-cause age-standardised DALY rates decreasing in every GBD super-region. The total DALY burden measured in counts, however, will increase in every super-region, largely a function of population ageing and growth. We also forecasted that both DALY counts and age-standardised DALY rates will continue to shift from CMNNs to NCDs, with the most pronounced shifts occurring in sub-Saharan Africa (60·1% [95% UI 56·8-63·1] of DALYs were from CMNNs in 2022 compared with 35·8% [31·0-45·0] in 2050) and south Asia (31·7% [29·2-34·1] to 15·5% [13·7-17·5]). This shift is reflected in the leading global causes of DALYs, with the top four causes in 2050 being ischaemic heart disease, stroke, diabetes, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, compared with 2022, with ischaemic heart disease, neonatal disorders, stroke, and lower respiratory infections at the top. The global proportion of DALYs due to YLDs likewise increased from 33·8% (27·4-40·3) to 41·1% (33·9-48·1) from 2022 to 2050, demonstrating an important shift in overall disease burden towards morbidity and away from premature death. The largest shift of this kind was forecasted for sub-Saharan Africa, from 20·1% (15·6-25·3) of DALYs due to YLDs in 2022 to 35·6% (26·5-43·0) in 2050. In the assessment of alternative future scenarios, the combined effects of the scenarios (Safer Environment, Improved Childhood Nutrition and Vaccination, and Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenarios) demonstrated an important decrease in the global burden of DALYs in 2050 of 15·4% (13·5-17·5) compared with the reference scenario, with decreases across super-regions ranging from 10·4% (9·7-11·3) in the high-income super-region to 23·9% (20·7-27·3) in north Africa and the Middle East. The Safer Environment scenario had its largest decrease in sub-Saharan Africa (5·2% [3·5-6·8]), the Improved Behavioural and Metabolic Risks scenario in north Africa and the Middle East (23·2% [20·2-26·5]), and the Improved Nutrition and Vaccination scenario in sub-Saharan Africa (2·0% [-0·6 to 3·6]). INTERPRETATION: Globally, life expectancy and age-standardised disease burden were forecasted to improve between 2022 and 2050, with the majority of the burden continuing to shift from CMNNs to NCDs. That said, continued progress on reducing the CMNN disease burden will be dependent on maintaining investment in and policy emphasis on CMNN disease prevention and treatment. Mostly due to growth and ageing of populations, the number of deaths and DALYs due to all causes combined will generally increase. By constructing alternative future scenarios wherein certain risk exposures are eliminated by 2050, we have shown that opportunities exist to substantially improve health outcomes in the future through concerted efforts to prevent exposure to well established risk factors and to expand access to key health interventions. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.


Assuntos
Previsões , Carga Global da Doença , Saúde Global , Humanos , Carga Global da Doença/tendências , Feminino , Masculino , Fatores de Risco , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Deficiência , Expectativa de Vida/tendências , Idoso , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto , Mortalidade/tendências , Adulto Jovem
11.
Lancet ; 403(10440): 2133-2161, 2024 May 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38642570

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Detailed, comprehensive, and timely reporting on population health by underlying causes of disability and premature death is crucial to understanding and responding to complex patterns of disease and injury burden over time and across age groups, sexes, and locations. The availability of disease burden estimates can promote evidence-based interventions that enable public health researchers, policy makers, and other professionals to implement strategies that can mitigate diseases. It can also facilitate more rigorous monitoring of progress towards national and international health targets, such as the Sustainable Development Goals. For three decades, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) has filled that need. A global network of collaborators contributed to the production of GBD 2021 by providing, reviewing, and analysing all available data. GBD estimates are updated routinely with additional data and refined analytical methods. GBD 2021 presents, for the first time, estimates of health loss due to the COVID-19 pandemic. METHODS: The GBD 2021 disease and injury burden analysis estimated years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 371 diseases and injuries using 100 983 data sources. Data were extracted from vital registration systems, verbal autopsies, censuses, household surveys, disease-specific registries, health service contact data, and other sources. YLDs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific prevalence of sequelae by their respective disability weights, for each disease and injury. YLLs were calculated by multiplying cause-age-sex-location-year-specific deaths by the standard life expectancy at the age that death occurred. DALYs were calculated by summing YLDs and YLLs. HALE estimates were produced using YLDs per capita and age-specific mortality rates by location, age, sex, year, and cause. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws. Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. Counts and age-standardised rates were calculated globally, for seven super-regions, 21 regions, 204 countries and territories (including 21 countries with subnational locations), and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Here we report data for 2010 to 2021 to highlight trends in disease burden over the past decade and through the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic. FINDINGS: Global DALYs increased from 2·63 billion (95% UI 2·44-2·85) in 2010 to 2·88 billion (2·64-3·15) in 2021 for all causes combined. Much of this increase in the number of DALYs was due to population growth and ageing, as indicated by a decrease in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates of 14·2% (95% UI 10·7-17·3) between 2010 and 2019. Notably, however, this decrease in rates reversed during the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, with increases in global age-standardised all-cause DALY rates since 2019 of 4·1% (1·8-6·3) in 2020 and 7·2% (4·7-10·0) in 2021. In 2021, COVID-19 was the leading cause of DALYs globally (212·0 million [198·0-234·5] DALYs), followed by ischaemic heart disease (188·3 million [176·7-198·3]), neonatal disorders (186·3 million [162·3-214·9]), and stroke (160·4 million [148·0-171·7]). However, notable health gains were seen among other leading communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) diseases. Globally between 2010 and 2021, the age-standardised DALY rates for HIV/AIDS decreased by 47·8% (43·3-51·7) and for diarrhoeal diseases decreased by 47·0% (39·9-52·9). Non-communicable diseases contributed 1·73 billion (95% UI 1·54-1·94) DALYs in 2021, with a decrease in age-standardised DALY rates since 2010 of 6·4% (95% UI 3·5-9·5). Between 2010 and 2021, among the 25 leading Level 3 causes, age-standardised DALY rates increased most substantially for anxiety disorders (16·7% [14·0-19·8]), depressive disorders (16·4% [11·9-21·3]), and diabetes (14·0% [10·0-17·4]). Age-standardised DALY rates due to injuries decreased globally by 24·0% (20·7-27·2) between 2010 and 2021, although improvements were not uniform across locations, ages, and sexes. Globally, HALE at birth improved slightly, from 61·3 years (58·6-63·6) in 2010 to 62·2 years (59·4-64·7) in 2021. However, despite this overall increase, HALE decreased by 2·2% (1·6-2·9) between 2019 and 2021. INTERPRETATION: Putting the COVID-19 pandemic in the context of a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of causes of health loss is crucial to understanding its impact and ensuring that health funding and policy address needs at both local and global levels through cost-effective and evidence-based interventions. A global epidemiological transition remains underway. Our findings suggest that prioritising non-communicable disease prevention and treatment policies, as well as strengthening health systems, continues to be crucially important. The progress on reducing the burden of CMNN diseases must not stall; although global trends are improving, the burden of CMNN diseases remains unacceptably high. Evidence-based interventions will help save the lives of young children and mothers and improve the overall health and economic conditions of societies across the world. Governments and multilateral organisations should prioritise pandemic preparedness planning alongside efforts to reduce the burden of diseases and injuries that will strain resources in the coming decades. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Anos de Vida Ajustados por Deficiência , Carga Global da Doença , Saúde Global , Expectativa de Vida , Humanos , Expectativa de Vida/tendências , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Masculino , Feminino , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Prevalência , Idoso , Incidência , Adulto , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Pessoas com Deficiência/estatística & dados numéricos , Ferimentos e Lesões/epidemiologia , Ferimentos e Lesões/mortalidade , Adolescente , Adulto Jovem , Criança , Pré-Escolar , SARS-CoV-2 , Lactente , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais
12.
Lancet ; 403(10440): 1989-2056, 2024 May 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38484753

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Estimates of demographic metrics are crucial to assess levels and trends of population health outcomes. The profound impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on populations worldwide has underscored the need for timely estimates to understand this unprecedented event within the context of long-term population health trends. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides new demographic estimates for 204 countries and territories and 811 additional subnational locations from 1950 to 2021, with a particular emphasis on changes in mortality and life expectancy that occurred during the 2020-21 COVID-19 pandemic period. METHODS: 22 223 data sources from vital registration, sample registration, surveys, censuses, and other sources were used to estimate mortality, with a subset of these sources used exclusively to estimate excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic. 2026 data sources were used for population estimation. Additional sources were used to estimate migration; the effects of the HIV epidemic; and demographic discontinuities due to conflicts, famines, natural disasters, and pandemics, which are used as inputs for estimating mortality and population. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate under-5 mortality rates, which synthesised 30 763 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 1365 surveys and censuses, and 80 other sources. ST-GPR was also used to estimate adult mortality (between ages 15 and 59 years) based on information from 31 642 location-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 355 surveys and censuses, and 24 other sources. Estimates of child and adult mortality rates were then used to generate life tables with a relational model life table system. For countries with large HIV epidemics, life tables were adjusted using independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated via an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, and other data sources. Excess mortality due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021 was determined by subtracting observed all-cause mortality (adjusted for late registration and mortality anomalies) from the mortality expected in the absence of the pandemic. Expected mortality was calculated based on historical trends using an ensemble of models. In location-years where all-cause mortality data were unavailable, we estimated excess mortality rates using a regression model with covariates pertaining to the pandemic. Population size was computed using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model. Life expectancy was calculated using age-specific mortality rates and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were calculated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered values from a 1000-draw posterior distribution. FINDINGS: Global all-cause mortality followed two distinct patterns over the study period: age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1950 and 2019 (a 62·8% [95% UI 60·5-65·1] decline), and increased during the COVID-19 pandemic period (2020-21; 5·1% [0·9-9·6] increase). In contrast with the overall reverse in mortality trends during the pandemic period, child mortality continued to decline, with 4·66 million (3·98-5·50) global deaths in children younger than 5 years in 2021 compared with 5·21 million (4·50-6·01) in 2019. An estimated 131 million (126-137) people died globally from all causes in 2020 and 2021 combined, of which 15·9 million (14·7-17·2) were due to the COVID-19 pandemic (measured by excess mortality, which includes deaths directly due to SARS-CoV-2 infection and those indirectly due to other social, economic, or behavioural changes associated with the pandemic). Excess mortality rates exceeded 150 deaths per 100 000 population during at least one year of the pandemic in 80 countries and territories, whereas 20 nations had a negative excess mortality rate in 2020 or 2021, indicating that all-cause mortality in these countries was lower during the pandemic than expected based on historical trends. Between 1950 and 2021, global life expectancy at birth increased by 22·7 years (20·8-24·8), from 49·0 years (46·7-51·3) to 71·7 years (70·9-72·5). Global life expectancy at birth declined by 1·6 years (1·0-2·2) between 2019 and 2021, reversing historical trends. An increase in life expectancy was only observed in 32 (15·7%) of 204 countries and territories between 2019 and 2021. The global population reached 7·89 billion (7·67-8·13) people in 2021, by which time 56 of 204 countries and territories had peaked and subsequently populations have declined. The largest proportion of population growth between 2020 and 2021 was in sub-Saharan Africa (39·5% [28·4-52·7]) and south Asia (26·3% [9·0-44·7]). From 2000 to 2021, the ratio of the population aged 65 years and older to the population aged younger than 15 years increased in 188 (92·2%) of 204 nations. INTERPRETATION: Global adult mortality rates markedly increased during the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and 2021, reversing past decreasing trends, while child mortality rates continued to decline, albeit more slowly than in earlier years. Although COVID-19 had a substantial impact on many demographic indicators during the first 2 years of the pandemic, overall global health progress over the 72 years evaluated has been profound, with considerable improvements in mortality and life expectancy. Additionally, we observed a deceleration of global population growth since 2017, despite steady or increasing growth in lower-income countries, combined with a continued global shift of population age structures towards older ages. These demographic changes will likely present future challenges to health systems, economies, and societies. The comprehensive demographic estimates reported here will enable researchers, policy makers, health practitioners, and other key stakeholders to better understand and address the profound changes that have occurred in the global health landscape following the first 2 years of the COVID-19 pandemic, and longer-term trends beyond the pandemic. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Carga Global da Doença , Saúde Global , Expectativa de Vida , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , COVID-19/mortalidade , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Expectativa de Vida/tendências , Feminino , Adulto , Masculino , Adolescente , Criança , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Pré-Escolar , Lactente , Adulto Jovem , Idoso , Mortalidade/tendências , Recém-Nascido , Demografia , Pandemias , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , Distribuição por Idade
13.
Lancet ; 403(10440): 2100-2132, 2024 May 18.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38582094

RESUMO

BACKGROUND: Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS: The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION: Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.


Assuntos
COVID-19 , Causas de Morte , Carga Global da Doença , Saúde Global , Expectativa de Vida , Humanos , Causas de Morte/tendências , Feminino , COVID-19/mortalidade , COVID-19/epidemiologia , Masculino , Idoso , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Adulto , Pré-Escolar , Lactente , Saúde Global/estatística & dados numéricos , Adolescente , Adulto Jovem , Criança , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais , SARS-CoV-2 , Recém-Nascido , Pandemias
14.
Natl Vital Stat Rep ; 72(12): 1-64, 2023 Nov.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-38048433

RESUMO

Objectives-This report presents complete period life tables for the United States by Hispanic origin and race and sex, based on age-specific death rates in 2021. Methods-Data used to prepare the 2021 life tables are 2021 final mortality statistics; July 1, 2021, population estimates based on the Blended Base population estimates produced by the U.S. Census Bureau; and 2021 Medicare data for people ages 66-99. The methodology used to estimate life tables for the Hispanic population remains unchanged from that developed for the publication of life tables by Hispanic origin for data year 2006. The same methodology is used to estimate life tables for the American Indian and Alaska Native non-Hispanic and Asian non-Hispanic populations. The methodology used to estimate the 2021 life tables for all other groups was first implemented with data year 2008. Results-In 2021, the overall expectation of life at birth was 76.4 years, decreasing 0.6 year from 77.0 in 2020. From 2020 to 2021, life expectancy at birth decreased by 0.7 year for males (from 74.2 to 73.5) and by 0.6 year for females (79.9 to 79.3). Between 2020 and 2021, life expectancy decreased by 1.5 years for the American Indian and Alaska Native non-Hispanic population (67.1 to 65.6), 0.7 year for the White non-Hispanic population (77.4 to 76.7), 0.3 year for the Black non-Hispanic population (71.5 to 71.2), 0.1 year for the Hispanic population (77.9 to 77.8), and 0.1 year for the Asian non-Hispanic population (83.6 to 83.5).


Assuntos
Tábuas de Vida , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , Etnicidade/estatística & dados numéricos , Hispânico ou Latino , Expectativa de Vida/etnologia , Medicare/estatística & dados numéricos , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Idoso de 80 Anos ou mais
15.
Natl Vital Stat Rep ; 72(10): 1-92, 2023 Sep.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37748091

RESUMO

Objective-This report presents final 2020 data on U.S. deaths, death rates, life expectancy, infant and maternal mortality, and trends by selected characteristics such as age, sex, Hispanic origin and race, state of residence, and cause of death. Methods-Information reported on death certificates is presented in descriptive tabulations. The original records are filed in state registration offices. Statistical information is compiled in a national database through the Vital Statistics Cooperative Program of the National Center for Health Statistics. Causes of death are processed according to the International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision. Beginning in 2018, all states and the District of Columbia were using the 2003 revised certificate of death for the entire year, which includes the 1997 Office of Management and Budget revised standards for race. Data based on these revised standards are not completely comparable to previous years. Results-In 2020, a total of 3,383,729 deaths were reported in the United States. The age-adjusted death rate was 835.4 deaths per 100,000 U.S. standard population, an increase of 16.8% from the 2019 rate. Life expectancy at birth was 77.0 years, a decrease of 1.8 years from 2019. Age-specific death rates increased from 2019 to 2020 for age groups 15 years and over and decreased for age group under 1 year. Many of the 15 leading causes of death in 2020 changed from 2019. COVID-19, a new cause of death in 2020, became the third leading cause in 2020. The infant mortality rate decreased 2.9% to a historic low of 5.42 infant deaths per 1,000 live births in 2020. Conclusions-In 2020, the age-adjusted death rate increased and life expectancy at birth decreased for the total, male, and female populations, primarily due to the influence of deaths from COVID-19.


Assuntos
Causas de Morte , Expectativa de Vida , Mortalidade , Adolescente , Feminino , Humanos , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Masculino , COVID-19/epidemiologia , COVID-19/mortalidade , Bases de Dados Factuais/estatística & dados numéricos , District of Columbia , Hispânico ou Latino , Morte do Lactente , Estados Unidos/epidemiologia , Expectativa de Vida/tendências , Mortalidade Infantil/tendências , Mortalidade/tendências , Mortalidade Materna/tendências
16.
Blood ; 142(3): 230-234, 2023 07 20.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-37216689

RESUMO

Because of the unique biology of sickle cell disease (SCD) as well as the societal disadvantages and racial inequities suffered by these patients, individuals with SCD have not benefited from the same remarkable advances in care and therapeutics as those with other hematologic disorders. Life expectancy of individuals with SCD is shortened by ∼20 years even with optimal clinical care, and infant mortality continues to be a major concern in low-income countries. As hematologists, we must do more. The American Society of Hematology (ASH) and the ASH Research Collaborative have instituted a multipronged initiative to improve the lives of individuals living with this disease. Here, we describe 2 components of this ASH initiative, the Consortium on Newborn Screening in Africa (CONSA) to improve the early diagnosis of infants in low-resource countries and the SCD Clinical Trial Network to accelerate the development of more effective therapeutics and care for those with this disorder. The combination of SCD-focused initiatives, ASH Research Collaborative, CONSA, and Sickle Cell Clinical Trials Network has enormous potential to dramatically alter the course of SCD worldwide. We believe that the timing is ripe to embark on these critical and worthwhile initiatives and improve the lives of individuals with this disease.


Assuntos
Anemia Falciforme , Doenças Hematológicas , Lactente , Recém-Nascido , Humanos , Anemia Falciforme/terapia , Anemia Falciforme/tratamento farmacológico , Expectativa de Vida , Assistência ao Paciente , Triagem Neonatal
17.
Cell ; 163(5): 1043-1045, 2015 Nov 19.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-26590410
18.
Annu Rev Cell Dev Biol ; 27: 759-85, 2011.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-21756108

RESUMO

Sensory systems provide organisms from bacteria to humans with the ability to interact with the world. Numerous senses have evolved that allow animals to detect and decode cues from sources in both their external and internal environments. Recent advances in understanding the central mechanisms by which the brains of simple organisms evaluate different cues and initiate behavioral decisions, coupled with observations that sensory manipulations are capable of altering organismal lifespan, have opened the door for powerful new research into aging. Although direct links between sensory perception and aging have been established only recently, here we discuss these initial discoveries and evaluate the potential for different forms of sensory processing to modulate lifespan across taxa. Harnessing the neurobiology of simple model systems to study the biological impact of sensory experiences will yield insights into the broad influence of sensory perception in mammals and may help uncover new mechanisms of healthy aging.


Assuntos
Envelhecimento/fisiologia , Expectativa de Vida , Modelos Biológicos , Sensação/fisiologia , Animais , Ritmo Circadiano/fisiologia , Sinais (Psicologia) , Meio Ambiente , Humanos , Estado Nutricional , Densidade Demográfica , Reprodução , Estações do Ano , Transdução de Sinais/fisiologia , Comportamento Social
19.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(28): e2200073119, 2022 07 12.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35867741

RESUMO

In classical evolutionary models, the force of natural selection diminishes with age toward zero by last reproduction. However, intergenerational resource transfers and other late-life contributions in social species may select for postreproductive longevity. We present a formal framework for estimating indirect fitness contributions via production transfers in a skills-intensive foraging niche, reflecting kinship and cooperation among group members. Among contemporary human hunter-gatherers and horticulturalists, indirect fitness contributions from transfers exceed direct reproductive contributions from before menopause until ages when surpluses end, around the modal age of adult death (∼70 y). Under reasonable assumptions, these benefits are the equivalent to having up to several more offspring after age 50. Despite early independence, minimal production surplus, and a shorter lifespan, chimpanzees could theoretically make indirect contributions if they adopted reliable food-sharing practices. Our results for chimpanzees hypothetically adopting hunter-gatherer subsistence suggest that a skills-intensive foraging ecology with late independence and late peak production could select for human-like life histories via positive feedback between longevity and late-life transfers. In contrast, life history changes preceding subsistence shifts would not favor further life extension or subsistence shifts. Our results formalize the theory that longevity can be favored under socioecological conditions characterized by parental and alloparental care funded through transfers of mid- to late-life production surpluses. We also extend our analysis beyond food transfers to illustrate the potential for indirect fitness contributions from pedagogy, or information transfers. While we focus mostly on humans, our approach is adaptable to any context or species where transfers can affect fitness.


Assuntos
Evolução Biológica , Expectativa de Vida , Longevidade , Seleção Genética , Adulto , Idoso , Feminino , Humanos , Pessoa de Meia-Idade , Reprodução
20.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A ; 119(10): e2109226119, 2022 03 08.
Artigo em Inglês | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-35238635

RESUMO

SignificanceIndia is one of the most hierarchical societies in the world. Because vital statistics are incomplete, mortality disparities are not quantified. Using survey data on more than 20 million individuals from nine Indian states representing about half of India's population, we estimate and decompose life expectancy differences between higher-caste Hindus, comprising other backward classes and high castes, and three marginalized social groups: Adivasis (indigenous peoples), Dalits (oppressed castes), and Muslims. The three marginalized groups experience large disadvantages in life expectancy at birth relative to higher-caste Hindus. Economic status explains less than half of these gaps. These large disparities underscore parallels between diverse systems of discrimination akin to racism. They highlight the global significance of addressing social inequality in India.


Assuntos
Expectativa de Vida , Grupos Populacionais , Fatores Socioeconômicos , Feminino , Humanos , Índia/etnologia , Masculino
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