Toward a clearer understanding of what works to reduce gun violence: the role of falsification strategies.

Strong epidemiologic evidence from ecological and individual-level studies in the United States supports the claim that access to firearms substantially increases the risk of dying by suicide, homicide, and firearm accidents. Less certain is how well particular interventions work to prevent these deaths and other firearm-related harms. Given the limits of existing data to study firearm violence and the infeasibility of conducting randomized trials of firearm access, it is important to do the best we can with the data we already have. We argue that falsification strategies are a critical-yet underutilized-component of any such analytical approach. The falsification strategies we focus on are versions of "negative controls" analyses in which we expect that an analysis should yield a null causal effect, and thus where not obtaining a null effect estimate raises questions about the assumptions underlying causal interpretation of a study's findings. We illustrate the saliency of this issue today with examples drawn from studies published in leading peer-reviewed journals within the last 5 years. Collecting rich, high-quality data always takes time, urgent as the need may be. On the other hand, doing better with the data we already have can start right now.

Adverse Childhood Experiences and Trajectories of Firearm Exposure in Childhood.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the longitudinal relationship between exposure to adverse childhood experiences (ACEs) in early life and trajectories of firearm exposure from early to middle childhood (ages 5-9 years old). STUDY DESIGN: Data from the Longitudinal Studies of Child Abuse and Neglect (LOGSCAN) study were used. The LONGSCAN study was a prospective study in the United States and contained data from 1354 children from age 4 to age 18 years old. Exposure to ACEs was measured through the wave 1 interview (age 5 years old) and trajectories of firearm exposure were created using data from waves 1 (age 5 years old) and two (age 9 years old). RESULTS: Two trajectories of firearm exposure in childhood were identified: a low exposure group and a group with persistently-high firearm exposure from ages 5 to 9 years old. ACEs were associated with membership in the high exposure group and children with four or more ACEs had over twice the odds of membership in the high exposure group compared with children with zero ACEs. CONCLUSION: ACEs exposure in early childhood is associated with persistently-high exposure to firearms from early to middle childhood. This finding highlights the need for pediatricians to consider screening for both ACEs and firearm exposure in routine examinations, as well as the need for future research to identify and evaluate interventions intended to address exposure to adversity and firearms.

Bullet-related bacterial wound infections among injured personnel at emergency site hospitals in Bahir Dar: prevalence, antimicrobial susceptibility and associated factors.

BACKGROUND: Bullet-related bacterial wound infection can be caused by high-velocity bullets and shrapnel injuries. In Ethiopia, significant injuries were reported that may cause severe wound infections, persistent systemic infections and may lead to amputation and mortality. The magnitude, antimicrobial susceptibility profiles, and factors associated with bacterial wound infections among patients with bullet-related injuries are not yet studied particularly at health facilities in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia. Therefore, this study was aimed to determine the prevalence, bacterial profiles, antimicrobial susceptibility profiles, and factors associated with bacterial infections among patients with bullet-related injuries at referral health facilities in Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia. METHODS: A Hospital-based cross-sectional study was conducted among patients with bullet-related injuries at three referral health facilities in Bahir Dar from May 25 to July 27, 2022. A total of 384 patients with bullet-related injuries were included in the study. Sociodemographic and clinical data were collected using a structured questionnaire. Wound swabs were collected aseptically and cultured on Blood and MacConkey agar following bacteriological standards. Biochemical tests were performed to differentiate bacteria for positive cultivation and antimicrobial susceptibility profiles of the isolates were done on Muller Hinton agar using the Kirby-Bauer disk diffusion technique according to the 2021 Clinical Laboratory Standard Institute (CLSI) guideline. The data were entered using Epi-Info version 7.3 and analyzed using SPSS version 25. Descriptive data were presented using frequency, percentages, figures, and charts. Logistic regression was carried out to identify factors associated with bacterial wound infections. P-value < 0.05 was considered statistically significant. RESULTS: The prevalence of bullet-related bacterial wound infection among three referral hospitals in Bahir Dar city was 54.7%. The most commonly isolated Gram-negative organism was Klebsiella spps 49 (23.3%) while among Gram-positive organism, Staphylococcus aureus 58 (27.6%) and coagulase-negative staphylococci (CONS) 18 (8.6%). Contamination, hospitalization and smoking habit were significantly associated with the presence of bullet-related bacterial wound infections. Over 97% multidrug resistant (MDR) bacterial isolates were identified and of theses, E. coli, Proteus species, Citrobactor, and Staphylococcus aureus were highly drug resistant. CONCLUSION: Increased prevalence of bullet-related bacterial wound infection was noticed in this study. S. aureus followed by Klebsiella species were most commonly isolated bacteria. High frequency of resistance to Ampicillin, Oxacillin, Cefepime, Ceftriaxone, Ceftazidime, Vancomycin, and Norfloxacin was observed. Therefore, proper handling of bullet injuries, prompt investigation of bacterial infections, monitoring of drug sensitivity patterns and antibiotic usage are critical.

Preinjury and Event-Related Characteristics of Pediatric Firearm Injuries: The American College of Surgeons Firearm Study, United States, March 2021‒February 2022.

Objectives. To assess differences in contextual factors by intent among pediatric firearm injury patients and determine factors associated with data missingness. Methods. We retrospectively queried the American College of Surgeons Firearm Study database (March 1, 2021-February 28, 2022) for patients aged 18 years or younger. We stratified preinjury, firearm-related, and event-related factors by intent and compared them by using Fisher exact, χ2, or 1-way analysis of variance testing. Secondary analysis estimated the adjusted odds of missingness by using generalized linear modeling with binominal logit link. Results. Among 17 395 patients, 2974 (17.1%) were aged 18 years or younger; 1966 (66.1%) were injured by assault, 579 (19.5%) unintentionally, and 76 (2.6%) by self-inflicted means. Most contextual factors differed by intent, including proportion of youths with previous adverse childhood experiences, mental illness, and violent assaults or injury, firearm type and access, perpetrator relationship, and injury location. In adjusted analyses, age, trauma center designation, intent, and admission status were associated with missingness. Conclusions. Contextual factors related to pediatric firearm injury vary by intent. Specific predictors associated with missingness may inform improved future data collection. Public Health Implications. Contextual factors related to pediatric firearm injury can be obtained in a systematic manner nationally to inform targeted interventions. (Am J Public Health. 2024;114(10):1097-1109. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2024.307754).

Emergency Medical Services Encounters for Firearm Injuries - 858 Counties, United States, January 2019-September 2023.

Firearm-related deaths and injuries have increased in recent years. Comprehensive and timely information on firearm injuries and the communities and geographic locations most affected by firearm violence is crucial for guiding prevention activities. However, traditional surveillance systems for firearm injury, which are mostly based on hospital encounters and mortality-related data, often lack information on the location where the shooting occurred. This study examined annual and monthly rates of emergency medical services (EMS) encounters for firearm injury per 100,000 total EMS encounters during January 2019-September 2023 in 858 counties in 27 states, by patient characteristics and characteristics of the counties where the injuries occurred. Overall, annual rates of firearm injury EMS encounters per 100,000 total EMS encounters ranged from 222.7 in 2019 to 294.9 in 2020; rates remained above prepandemic levels through 2023. Rates were consistently higher among males than females. Rates stratified by race and ethnicity were highest among non-Hispanic Black or African American persons; rates stratified by age group were highest among persons aged 15-24 years. The greatest percentage increases in annual rates occurred in urban counties and in counties with higher prevalence of severe housing problems, higher income inequality ratios, and higher rates of unemployment. States and communities can use the timely and location-specific data in EMS records to develop and implement comprehensive firearm injury prevention strategies to address the economic, social, and physical conditions that contribute to the risk for violence, including improvements to physical environments, secure firearm storage, and strengthened social and economic supports.

Factors Associated with Discharge to Skilled Nursing Facility Following Gunshot Wounds.

INTRODUCTION: Firearm injury is a public health crisis. Most victims are minorities in underserved neighborhoods. Measuring firearm injury by mortality underestimates its impact, as most victims survive to discharge. This study was done to determine if race and insurance status are associated with discharge disposition for gunshot wound (GSW)-related trauma. METHODS: Using the 2019 Trauma Quality Improvement Program database, we identified GSW patients with Abbreviated Injury Scale (AIS) = 1-3. Exclusion criteria included patients who died in hospital and routine home discharge. We compared discharge patterns of patients based on demographics (age, gender, race, ethnicity, payor, AIS, hospital designation, and length of stay [LOS]) and injury severity. Multivariable logistic regression models identified factors associated with discharge disposition. RESULTS: Our sample included 2437 patients with GSWs. On univariable analysis, Black patients were more likely to discharge to home with home health (64.1% Black versus 34.7% White; P < 0.001). White patients were more likely to discharge to skilled nursing facility (SNF) (51.4% White versus 44.6% Black; P < 0.001). Controlling for age, race, Latin ethnicity, primary payor, LOS, AIS severity, and injury severity score factors independently associated with discharge to SNF included age (0.0462, P < 0.001), Medicaid (1.136, P < 0.0003), Medicare (1.452, P < 0.001), and LOS (0.03745, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Postacute care following traumatic injuries is essential to recovery. Black GSW victims are more likely to be discharged to home health than White patients, who are more likely to be discharged to SNF. Targeted programs to reduce barriers to appropriate aftercare are necessary to eliminate this bias and improve the care of underserved populations.

Pooled Analysis of Trauma Centers Better Predicts Risk Factors for Firearm Violence Reinjury.

INTRODUCTION: Many trauma centers use the first firearm injury admission as a reachable moment to mitigate reinjury. Understanding repeat firearm violence can be difficult in metropolitan areas with multiple trauma centers and laws that prohibit sharing private health information across health systems. We hypothesized that risk factors for repeat firearm violence could be better understood using pooled data from two major metropolitan trauma centers. METHODS: Two level I trauma center registries were queried (2007-2017) for firearm injury admissions using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth Revision (ICD9/10) Ecodes. A pseudo encryption tool allowed sharing of deidentified firearm injury and repeat firearm injury data without disclosing private health information. Factors associated with firearm reinjury admissions including, age, sex, race, payor, injury severity, intent, and discharge, were assessed by multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: We identified 2145 patients with firearm injury admissions, 89 of whom had a subsequent repeat firearm injury admission. Majority of repeat firearm admissions were assaulted (91%), male (97.8%), and non-Hispanic Black (86.5%). 31.5% of repeat firearm injury admissions were admitted to a different trauma center from their initial admission. Independent predictors of repeat firearm injuries were age (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.94, P < 0.001), male sex (aOR 6.18, P = 0.013), non-Hispanic Black race (aOR 5.14, P = 0.007), or discharge against medical advice (aOR 6.64, P=<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Nearly a third of repeat firearm injury admissions would have been missed in the current study without pooled metropolitan trauma center data. The incidence of repeat firearm violence is increasing and those at the highest risk for reinjury need to be targeted for mitigating interventions.

Colleges and Crime-Comparing Homicide and Suicide Rates Among College Towns and Their Counterparts.

INTRODUCTION: To investigate differences in homicide and suicide rates across college town status and determine whether college towns were predisposed to changes in rates over time. METHODS: We analyzed county-level homicide and suicide rates (total and by firearm) across college town status using 2015-2019 CDC death certificate data and data from the American Communities Project. RESULTS: Population-level homicide rates were similar across college town status, but younger age groups were at increased risk for firearm homicide and total homicide in college towns. College town status was associated with lower population-level firearm suicide rates, but individuals aged less than 18 y were at increased risk for total and firearm suicide. Finally, college towns were not classified as outliers for changes in either firearm homicide or suicide rates over time. CONCLUSIONS: College towns had similar homicide rates and significantly lower firearm suicide rates than other counties; however, individuals aged less than 18 y were at increased risk for both outcomes. The distinctive demographic, social, economic, and cultural features of college towns may contribute to differing risk profiles among certain age groups, thus may also be amenable to focused prevention efforts.

Disadvantaged Neighborhoods Continue to Bear the Burden of Gun Violence.

INTRODUCTION: Gun violence is a pervasive and dynamic public health crisis causing substantial burden on communities and healthcare systems in the United States. Risk factor and outcome analyses are crucial to develop effective interventions. The aim of this study was to assess firearm injury in a diverse community setting as it relates to neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage and changes over time following large-scale local interventions. METHODS: All county residents with firearm injury presenting to a Level 1 Trauma Center from January 2012 to December 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. Area Deprivation Index (ADI) was used to measure neighborhood socioeconomic disadvantage based on a nine-digit zip code at patients' home address. Injuries were also stratified by 5-year time periods, 2012-2016 and 2017-2021. Demographics and clinical data were analyzed including injury severity, hospital course, and discharge location. Data were compared by ADI quintile and between time periods using chi-squared, one-way analysis of variance, and Cochran-Armitage test. RESULTS: A total of 1044 injuries were evaluated. Patients were 93% male with mean age of 29 y (standard deviation 10.2) and were concentrated in the most disadvantaged neighborhoods (74% ADI Q5). Black or African American race was greater in the most disadvantaged ADI groups (76% versus 47%-66%; P <0.001). Percentage of total injuries in the most disadvantaged ADI group rose from 71% to 78% over time (P = 0.006). Mortality occurred in 154 (15%) patients overall, while most (71%) were discharged to home. Mortality declined from 18% to 11% over time (P <0.001). Medicaid utilization rose from 42% to 77% alongside a decrease in self-pay status from 44% to 4% (P <0.001). There were no clinically significant group differences in injury severity or clinical characteristics. CONCLUSIONS: Firearm injury remains concentrated in the most socioeconomically disadvantaged neighborhoods, and this disparity is increasing over time. Medicaid utilization rose and mortality decreased in this population over time. This research presents a method to inform and monitor local gun violence interventions using ADI to address public health equity.

A Decade of Firearm Injuries: Children Caught in the Crossfire.

INTRODUCTION: Firearm injuries (FIs) are the leading cause of preventable morbidity and mortality in pediatric patients. In this study, we aim to define evolving trends and avenues for prevention. METHODS: Following institutional review board approval, medical records of patients presenting to our two State-Designated Level 1 Pediatric Trauma Centers for treatment of FIs from 2010 to 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. Data was analyzed with Chi-Squared and Student's t-test; P-value <0.05 was significant. RESULTS: 1037 FI encounters from 1005 unique patients aged 0-21 y were included. 70.4% (n = 730) were determined to be assaults, 26.1% (n = 271) unintentional, and 1.7% (n = 18) self-inflicted injuries. Overall mortality was 4.5% (n = 45). FI victims were most commonly African American (n = 836, 80.6%), male (n = 869, 83.8%), aged 13-17 (n = 753, 72.6%), and from single-parent families (n = 647, 62.4%). The incidence of FIs increased significantly over the last 5 y of the study (2010-2014, 6.8 FIs/month), compared to 2015-2019 (averaging 10.6 FIs/month, P < 0.0001). Concurrently, FI related fatality increased from an average of 2.6 deaths/year (2010-2014) to 6.4 deaths/year (2015-2019, P = 0.064). Results were subanalyzed for pediatric patients aged 0-14 y. For the entire cohort, 12.1% (n = 116) recidivists were identified. Geographic patterns of injury were identified, with 75% of all FIs clustered in a single urban region. CONCLUSIONS: Incidence of pediatric FIs is increasing in recent years, with high mortality rates. Violence and recidivism are geographically concentrated, offering an opportunity for targeted interventions.

Nearly 20 Years Since the Federal Ban: Can State-Level Assault Weapon Prohibitions Fill the Void? Comparative Analysis of Case Fatality and Assault Weapon Recovery in States With and Without an Assault Weapon Ban.

INTRODUCTION: Few states established assault weapon bans (AWBs) after the federal AWB expired. The effectiveness of state AWBs as well as neighboring state legislation, in reducing the local prevalence of assault weapons (AWs) or in reducing overall shooting lethality is unknown. METHODS: We queried the Gun Violence Archive (2014-2021) to identify US firearm injuries and fatalities. Shooting case fatality rates were compared among states with and without AWBs, as reported in the State Firearm Laws Database. Data on recovered firearms was obtained from the ATF Firearms Trace Database and used to estimate weapon prevalence. Recovered firearms were classified as AWs based on caliber (7.62 mm, 5.56 mm, 0.223 cal). We performed spatially weighted linear regression models, with fixed effects for state and year to assess the association between geographically clustered state legislation and firearm outcomes. RESULTS: From 2014 to 2021, the US shooting victim case fatality rate was 8.06% and did not differ among states with and without AWBs. The proportion of AWs to total firearms was 5.0% in states without an AWB and 6.0% in states with an AWB (mean difference [95% CI] = -0.8% [-1.6% to -0.2%], P = 0.03). Most recovered firearms in AWB states originated from non-AWB states. On adjusted models, there was no association between state-level AWB and firearm case fatality; however, adjacency to states with an AWB was associated with lower case fatality (P < 0.001). Clustered AWB states with shared borders had lower AW prevalence and fatality rates than the rest of the US. CONCLUSIONS: Isolated state AWBs are not inversely associated with shooting case fatality rates nor the prevalence of AWs, but AWBs among multiple neighboring states may be associated with both outcomes.

Firearm Ownership: A Key Factor to Consider in Firearm Suicide Deaths in Children, Despite State Gun Laws.

INTRODUCTION: Firearm-related suicides among children present a significant public health concern and a tragic loss of young lives. This study explores the relationship between firearm-related suicides, gun ownership, and state-specific gun laws. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study collected data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Wide-Ranging Online Data for Epidemiologic Research on children under 18 who died by firearm-related suicides between 2009 and 2016 in all 50 states and D.C. It also utilized data from the RAND State-Level Estimates of Household Firearm Ownership. The study focused on the rate of child firearm suicide deaths per 100,000 individuals. The key variable of interest was the percentage of guns owned per household in each state. Univariable analysis was conducted to examine the association between individual gun laws and child firearm suicide mortalities, while multivariable regression, adjusting for household gun ownership and significant firearm legislation, was employed to assess connection to child firearm suicide mortality. RESULTS: From 2009 to 2016, 3903 children died from firearm-related suicides in the United States. In our analysis, 15 out of 44 firearm laws were found to be associated with reducing the rates of firearm suicides among children (P < 0.05). However, multivariable regression showed that higher state gun ownership rates were the primary predictor of increased child fatalities from firearms, with children in such states being 325% more likely to die when analyzing handgun laws and 337% more likely when analyzing long gun laws, as indicated by coefficients of 4.25 and 4.37, respectively. No state laws alone notably improved death rates. CONCLUSIONS: Gun ownership has a stronger association with child suicide rates than state-specific gun laws. Given the weight of gun ownership, future research should prioritize comprehensive public health initiatives to prevent child firearm-related suicides.

The Relationship Between the COVID-19 Pandemic and Pediatric Trauma.

INTRODUCTION: The COVID-19 pandemic created difficulties in access to care. There was also increased penetrating trauma in adults, which has been attributed to factors including increased firearm sales and social isolation. However, less is known about the relationship between the pandemic and pediatric trauma patients (PTPs). This study aimed to investigate the national incidence of penetrating trauma in PTPs, hypothesizing a higher rate with onset of the pandemic. We additionally hypothesized increased risk of complications and death in penetrating PTPs after the pandemic versus prepandemic. METHODS: We included all PTPs (aged ≤17-years-old) from the 2017-2020 Trauma Quality Improvement Program database, dividing the dataset into two eras: prepandemic (2017-2019) and pandemic (2020). We performed subset analyses of the pandemic and prepandemic penetrating PTPs. Bivariate analyses and a multivariable logistic regression analysis were performed. RESULTS: Of the 474,524 PTPs, 123,804 (26.1%) were from the pandemic year. The pandemic era had increased stab wounds (3.3% versus 2.8%, P > 0.001) and gunshot wounds (5.5% versus 4.0%, P < 0.001) compared to the prepandemic era. Among penetrating PTPs, the rates and associated risk of in-hospital complications (2.6% versus 2.8%, P = 0.23) (odds ratio 0.90, confidence interval 0.79-1.02, P = 0.11) and mortality (4.9% versus 5.0%, P = 0.58) (odds ratio 0.90, confidence interval 0.78-1.03, P = 0.12) were similar between time periods. CONCLUSIONS: This national analysis confirms increased penetrating trauma, particularly gunshot wounds in pediatric patients following onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Despite this increase, there was no elevated risk of death or complications, suggesting that trauma systems adapted to the "dual pandemic" of COVID-19 and firearm violence in the pediatric population.

Firearm-Related Injuries and the US Opioid and Other Substance Use Epidemic: A Nationwide Evaluation of Emergency Department Encounters.

INTRODUCTION: There has been a sharp climb in the Unites States' death rate among opioid and other substance abuse patients, as well as an increased prevalence in gun violence. We aimed to investigate the association between substance abuse and gun violence in a national sample of patients presenting to US emergency departments (EDs). METHODS: We queried the 2018-2019 Nationwide Emergency Department Sample for patients ≥18 years with substance abuse disorders (opioid and other) using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision, Clinical Modification codes. Within this sample, we analyzed characteristics and outcomes of patients with firearm-related injuries. The primary outcome was mortality; secondary outcomes were ED charges and length of stay. RESULTS: Among the 25.2 million substance use disorder (SUD) patients in our analysis, 35,306 (0.14%) had a firearm-related diagnosis. Compared to other SUD patients, firearm-SUD patients were younger (33.3 versus 44.7 years, P < 0.001), primarily male (88.6% versus 54.2%, P < 0.001), of lower-income status (0-25th percentile income: 56.4% versus 40.5%, P < 0.001), and more likely to be insured by Medicaid or self-pay (71.6% versus 53.2%, P < 0.001). Firearm-SUD patients had higher mortality (1.4% versus 0.4%, P < 0.001), longer lengths of stay (6.5 versus 4.9 days, P < 0.001), and higher ED charges ($9269 versus $5,164, P < 0.001). Firearm-SUD patients had a 60.3% rate of psychiatric diagnoses. Firearm-SUD patients had 5.5 times greater odds of mortality in adjusted analyses (adjusted odds ratio: 5.5, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Opioid-substance abuse patients with firearm injuries have higher mortality rates and costs among these groups, with limited discharge to postacute care resources. All these factors together point to the urgent need for improved screening and treatment for this vulnerable group of patients.

Identifying overlaps and disconnects between media reports and official records of nonfatal firearm injuries in Indianapolis, Indiana, 2021-2022.

OBJECTIVE: Open-source data systems, largely drawn from media sources, are commonly used by scholars due to the lack of a comprehensive national data system. It is unclear if these data provide an accurate and complete representation of firearm injuries and their context. The study objectives were to compare firearm injuries in official police records with media reports to better identify the characteristics associated with media reporting. METHODS: Firearm injuries were identified in open-source media reports and compared to nonfatal firearm injury (n = 1642) data from official police records between January 1, 2021 to December 31, 2022 in Indianapolis, Indiana. Events were matched on date, location, and event circumstances. Four multivariate, multi-level mixed effects logistic regression models were conducted to assess which survivor, event, and community characteristics were associated with media reporting. Data were analyzed 2023 - January 2024. RESULTS: Media reported 41% of nonfatal shootings in 2021 and 45% in 2022(p < 0.05), which is approximately two out of every five shootings. Shootings involving multiple survivors, children, and self-defense were more likely to be reported, whereas unintentional shootings and shootings that occurred in structurally disadvantaged communities were less likely to be reported. CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest that relying on media reports of firearm injuries alone may misrepresent the numbers and contexts of shootings. Public health interventions that educate journalists about these important issues may be an impactful firearm violence prevention strategy. Also, it is critical to link data systems at the local level to ensure interventions are designed and evaluated using accurate data.

Community-Academic Partnership to Assess the Role of Physical Disinvestment on Firearm Violence in Toledo, OH.

Reversing physical disinvestment, e.g., by remediating abandoned buildings and vacant lots, is an evidence-based strategy to reduce urban firearm violence. However, adoption of this strategy has been inconsistent across US cities. Our community-academic partnership sought to support adoption in Toledo, OH, USA, by generating locally relevant analyses on physical disinvestment and firearm violence. We used a spatial case-control design with matching. Physical disinvestment measures were derived from a citywide parcel foot audit conducted by the Lucas County Land Bank in summer 2021. Firearm violence outcomes were incident-level shootings data from the Toledo Police Department from October 2021 through February 2023. Shooting locations were matched to controls 1:4 on poverty rate, roadway characteristics, and zoning type. Exposures were calculated by aggregating parcels within 5-min walking buffers of each case and control point. We tested multiple disinvestment measures, including a composite index. Models were logistic regressions that adjusted for the matching variables and for potential spatial autocorrelation. Our sample included N = 281 shooting locations and N = 1124 matched controls. A 1-unit increase in the disinvestment score, equal to approximately 1 additional disrepair condition for the average parcel within the walking buffer, was associated with 1.68 times (95% CI: 1.36, 2.07) higher odds of shooting incidence. Across all other measures, greater disinvestment was associated with higher odds of shooting incidence. Our finding of a strong association between physical disinvestment and firearm violence in Toledo can inform local action. Community-academic partnership could help increase adoption of violence prevention strategies focused on reversing physical disinvestment.

A Statistical Analysis of the Impact of Gun Ownership on Mass Shootings in the USA Between 2013 and 2022.

Mass shootings (incidents with four or more people shot in a single event, not including the shooter) are becoming more frequent in the United States, posing a significant threat to public health and safety in the country. In the current study, we intended to analyze the impact of state-level prevalence of gun ownership on mass shootings-both the frequency and severity of these events. We applied the negative binomial generalized linear mixed model to investigate the association between gun ownership rate, as measured by a proxy (i.e., the proportion of suicides committed with firearms to total suicides), and population-adjusted rates of mass shooting incidents and fatalities at the state level from 2013 to 2022. Gun ownership was found to be significantly associated with the rate of mass shooting fatalities. Specifically, our model indicated that for every 1-SD increase-that is, for every 12.5% increase-in gun ownership, the rate of mass shooting fatalities increased by 34% (p value < 0.001). However, no significant association was found between gun ownership and rate of mass shooting incidents. These findings suggest that restricting gun ownership (and therefore reducing availability to guns) may not decrease the number of mass shooting events, but it may save lives when these events occur.

Fatal Police Shootings of Victims with Mental Health Crises: A Descriptive Analysis of Data from the 2014-2015 National Violent Death Reporting System.

One in five fatal police shooting victims may have been experiencing a mental health crisis (MHC) at the time of their death [1]. We use data on fatal police shootings from the National Violent Death Reporting System (2014-2015) to (a) identify incidents where the victim is reported to have experienced an MHC at the time of their death, (b) describe the characteristics of these incidents, and (c) compare the characteristics of MHC to fatal police shootings where the victim was not experiencing an MHC at the time of their death. We systematically coded 633 fatal police shootings from 27 states. Descriptive statistics characterized fatal police shootings, including victim characteristics; their mental health status; and contextual information regarding the police encounter (e.g., reason for police call). Overall, 203 of 633 fatal police encounters (32%) involved victims who showed signs of an MHC at the time of their death. Victims were predominantly white, male, and in possession of a firearm. In 3 of 4 cases, the MHC manifested as suicidal ideation despite any relevant documented history among most victims. Among half of suicidal victims, suicidal ideation was expressed verbally and in-person to a family member/intimate partner who subsequently called the police. Dispatch was aware of the MHC in 1 of 4 of total police calls. Overall, fatal police encounters involving those experiencing an MHC accounted for 1 in 3 of our caseloads. Approximately, 3 of 4 mental health calls involved a suicidal person who mainly expressed intent to a loved one in-person.

Impact of injury mechanism on early wound closure in patients with acute conflict-related extremity wounds: A prospective cohort analysis from two civilian hospitals in Iraq and Jordan.

BACKGROUND: Gunshots and bomb blasts are important causes of extremity injuries in conflict zones, yet little research exists on the characteristics and outcomes of these injuries in civilian populations. METHODS: We performed a prospective cohort analysis utilizing data from a randomized trial conducted at two civilian hospitals in Jordan and Iraq in 2015-2019. Adults who presented ≤72 h of sustaining an extremity injury were included. We used mechanism of injury (gunshot/bomb blast) as the exposure and wound closure by day 5 as the primary outcome measure. RESULTS: The population predominantly comprised young men (n = 163, 94% male, and median age 29 years) injured by gunshots (61%) or bomb blasts (39%). Compared with the gunshot group, more participants in the bomb blast group had concomitant injuries (32/63 [51%] vs. 11/100 [11%], p < 0.001) and vascular injuries (9/63 [14%] vs. 4/100 [4%], p = 0.02). The wounds were larger in the bomb blast group compared with the gunshot group (median area 86 cm2 [IQR 24-161] vs. 21 cm2 [IQR 7-57], p < 0.001). Compared with the bomb blast group, significantly more participants in the gunshot group achieved wound closure by day 5 (74/100 [74%] vs. 16/63 [25%], p < 0.001). This difference remained after controlling for confounding factors (odds ratio 4.7, 95% confidence interval 1.6-13.7). CONCLUSIONS: In civilians with conflict-related extremity injuries, bomb blast wounds had a lower likelihood of achieving closure within 5 days than gunshot wounds, independent of other factors, such as wound size and vascular injuries. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02444598. Registered 14-05-2015, https://classic. CLINICALTRIALS: gov/ct2/show/NCT02444598.

Physician homicide: Reports in the National Violent Death Reporting System (2003-2018).

OBJECTIVE: To explore the occurrence, demographics, and circumstances of homicides of physicians. METHOD: Authors interrogated the National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS), the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's surveillance system tracking violent deaths between 2003 and 2018 which integrates data from law enforcement and coroner/medical examiner reports. Authors identified cases of homicide decedents whose profession was physician, surgeon, or psychiatrist. Data collected included decedents' demographics as well as circumstances of death. RESULTS: Data were provided by 7-41 states as participating states increased over time. Fifty-six homicides were reported, most were male (73.2%) and white (76.8%). Most (67.9%) identified assailants reportedly knew decedents: 23.2% were perpetrated by partners/ex-partners; 10.7% by patients/patients' family members. Deaths were mainly due to gunshot wounds (44.6%), stabbing (16.1%), and blunt force trauma (16.1%). More (58.9%) homicides occurred at victims' homes than work (16.1%). CONCLUSIONS: Physician homicides are relatively rare and occur at lower rates than in the general population. Physicians were more frequently killed by partners or ex-partners than by patients. Most homicides occurred away from the workplace. Broader efforts are needed to promote interventions throughout America's violent society to reduce domestic/partner violence and gun violence.