Prospective Study of Outcomes in Adults with Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease.

BACKGROUND: The prognoses with respect to mortality and hepatic and nonhepatic outcomes across the histologic spectrum of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are not well defined. METHODS: We prospectively followed a multicenter patient population that included the full histologic spectrum of NAFLD. The incidences of death and other outcomes were compared across baseline histologic characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 1773 adults with NAFLD were followed for a median of 4 years. All-cause mortality increased with increasing fibrosis stages (0.32 deaths per 100 person-years for stage F0 to F2 [no, mild, or moderate fibrosis], 0.89 deaths per 100 persons-years for stage F3 [bridging fibrosis], and 1.76 deaths per 100 person-years for stage F4 [cirrhosis]). The incidence of liver-related complications per 100 person-years increased with fibrosis stage (F0 to F2 vs. F3 vs. F4) as follows: variceal hemorrhage (0.00 vs. 0.06 vs. 0.70), ascites (0.04 vs. 0.52 vs. 1.20), encephalopathy (0.02 vs. 0.75 vs. 2.39), and hepatocellular cancer (0.04 vs. 0.34 vs. 0.14). As compared with patients with stage F0 to F2 fibrosis, patients with stage F4 fibrosis also had a higher incidence of type 2 diabetes (7.53 vs. 4.45 events per 100 person-years) and a decrease of more than 40% in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (2.98 vs. 0.97 events per 100 person-years). The incidence of cardiac events and nonhepatic cancers were similar across fibrosis stages. After adjustment for age, sex, race, diabetes status, and baseline histologic severity, the incidence of any hepatic decompensation event (variceal hemorrhage, ascites, or encephalopathy) was associated with increased all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 6.8; 95% confidence interval, 2.2 to 21.3). CONCLUSIONS: In this prospective study involving patients with NAFLD, fibrosis stages F3 and F4 were associated with increased risks of liver-related complications and death. (Funded by the National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases and others; NAFLD DB2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01030484.).

Hepatic steatosis, metabolic dysfunction and risk of mortality: findings from a multinational prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and metabolic syndrome (MetS) are implicated in the aetiology of non-communicable diseases. Our study aimed to evaluate associations between NAFLD and MetS with overall and cause-specific mortality. METHODS: We used dietary, lifestyle, anthropometric and metabolic biomarker data from a random subsample of 15,784 EPIC cohort participants. NAFLD was assessed using the fatty liver index (FLI) and MetS using the revised definition. Indices for metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) were calculated. The individual associations of these indices with overall and cause-specific mortality were assessed using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs). As a subobjective, risk associations with adaptations of new classifications of metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and metabolic and alcohol-related liver disease (MetALD) were also assessed. RESULTS: Among the 15,784 sub-cohort participants, a total of 1997 deaths occurred (835 due to cancer, 520 to CVD, 642 to other causes) over a median 15.6 (IQR, 12.3-17.1) years of follow-up. Compared to an FLI < 30, FLI ≥ 60 was associated with increased risks of overall mortality (HR = 1.44, 95%CI = 1.27-1.63), and deaths from cancer (HR = 1.32, 95%CI = 1.09-1.60), CVD (HR = 2.06, 95% CI = 1.61-2.63) or other causes (HR = 1.21, 95%CI = 0.97-1.51). Mortality risk associations were also elevated for individuals with MAFLD compared to those without. Individuals with MetS were at increased risk of all mortality endpoints, except cancer-specific mortality. MASLD and MetALD were associated with higher risk of overall mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings based on a prospective cohort suggest that individuals with hepatic steatosis or metabolic dysfunction have a higher overall and cause-specific mortality risk.

Association of triglyceride glucose-related parameters with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease in NAFLD patients: NHANES 1999-2018.

BACKGROUND: The relationship between the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and its derived index, the triglyceride glucose-waist height ratio (TyG-WHtR), with mortality and cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) remains unclear. METHODS: This study enrolled 6627 adults aged 18 and above diagnosed NAFLD from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES, 1999-2018). Binary weighted logistic regression analyses, cox proportional hazards model and restricted cubic spline (RCS) were used to analyze the relationship between TyG and TyG-WHtR with all-cause mortality, CVD mortality and CVDs. Mediation analysis explored the mediating role of glycohemoglobin, insulin and hypertension in the above relationships. Meanwhile, the incremental predictive value of the TyG index and TyG-WHtR was further assessed. RESULTS: Except for no significant association between the TyG index and both all-cause mortality and chronic heart failure (CHF), both TyG and TyG-WHtR exhibited significant positive correlations or trends of positive correlation with all-cause mortality, CVD mortality, total-CVD, CHF, coronary heart disease (CHD) and angina pectoris. For all-cause mortality, CVD mortality and CHF, TyG-WHtR was a better predictor than TyG (TyG-WHtR: HR 1.31, 95%CI 1.03-1.66; HR 2.22, 95%CI 1.42-3.47; OR 3.99, 95%CI 1.79-8.93). In contrast, TyG index demonstrated a stronger association with total-CVD, CHD and angina pectoris (TyG index: OR 2.00, 95%CI 1.26-3.18; OR 1.85, 95%CI 1.19-2.91; OR 2.93, 95%CI 1.23-7.00). RCS analysis showed that after adjusting for covariates, most of the aforementioned relationships were linear(P overall < 0.0001, P-nonlinear > 0.05), while the associations of the TyG index and TyG-WHtR with all-cause mortality and CHF were non-linear(P overall < 0.0001, P nonlinear < 0.05). The addition of the TyG index and TyG-WHtR to the basic model for outcomes improved the C-statistics, net reclassification improvement value, and integrated discrimination improvement value. CONCLUSIONS: The predictive value of TyG or TyG-WHtR for all-cause mortality and cardiovascular risk in NAFLD patients was significant. The TyG index and TyG-WHtR might be valid predictors of cardiovascular outcomes of patients with NAFLD.

Association between triglyceride-glucose related indices and mortality among individuals with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease or metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

BACKGROUND: The prognostic value of triglyceride-glucose (TyG) related indices in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) or metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) is still unclear. This study aimed to determine the associations between TyG-related indices and long-term mortality in this population. METHODS: The data came from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES III) and National Death Index (NDI). Baseline TyG, TyG combining with body mass index (TyG-BMI), and TyG combining with waist circumference (TyG-WC) indices were calculated, and mortality status was determined through 31 December 2019. Multivariate Cox and restricted cubic spline (RCS) regression models were performed to evaluate the relationship between TyG-related indices and long-term mortality among participants with NAFLD/MASLD. In addition, we examined the association between TyG-related indices and all-cause mortality within subgroups defined by age, sex, race/ethnicity, and fibrosis-4 index (FIB-4). RESULTS: There were 10,390 participants with completed ultrasonography and laboratory data included in this study. NAFLD was diagnosed in 3672/10,390 (35.3%) participants, while MASLD in 3556/10,390 (34.2%) amongst the overall population. The multivariate Cox regression analyses showed high levels of TyG-related indices, particularly in TyG-BMI and TyG-WC indices were significantly associated with the all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality, and diabetes mortality in either NAFLD or MASLD. The RCS curves showed a nonlinear trend between three TyG-related indices with all-cause mortality in either NAFLD or MASLD. Subgroup analyses showed that TyG-BMI and TyG-WC indices were more suitable for predicting all-cause mortality in patients without advanced fibrosis. CONCLUSION: Our study highlights the clinical value of TyG-related indices in predicting the survival of the NAFLD/MASLD population. TyG-BMI and TyG-WC indices would be the surrogate biomarkers for the follow-up of the population without advanced fibrosis.

Prognostic effect of triglyceride glucose-related parameters on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the United States adults with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease.

BACKGROUNDS: Insulin resistance (IR) plays a vital role in the pathogenesis of the metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD). However, it remains unclear whether triglyceride-glucose (TyG) related parameters, which serve as useful biomarkers to assess IR, have prognostic effects on mortality outcomes of MASLD. METHODS: Participants in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database from 1999 to 2018 years were included. TyG and its related parameters [TyG-waist circumference (TyG-WC) and TyG-waist to height ratio (TyG-WHtR)] were calculated. Kaplan-Meier curves, Cox regression analysis, and restricted cubic splines (RCS) were conducted to evaluate the association between TyG-related indices with the all-cause and cardiovascular mortality of adults with MASLD. The concordance index (C-index) was used to evaluate the prediction accuracy of TyG-related indices. RESULTS: A total of 8208 adults (4209 men and 3999 women, median age 49.00 years) with MASLD were included in this study. Multivariate-adjusted Cox regression analysis revealed that high quartile levels of TyG-related indices were significantly associated with the all-cause mortality of participants with MASLD [TyGadjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.25, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05-1.50, P = 0.014; TyG-WCaHR for all-cause mortality = 1.28, 95% CI 1.07-1.52, P = 0.006; TyG-WHtRaHR for all-cause mortality = 1.50, 95% CI 1.25-1.80, P < 0.001; TyG-WCaHR for cardiovascular mortality = 1.81, 95% CI 1.28-2.55, P = 0.001; TyG-WHtRaHR for cardiovascular mortality = 2.22, 95% CI 1.55-3.17, P < 0.001]. The C-index of TyG-related indices for predicting all-cause mortality was 0.563 for the TyG index, 0.579 for the TyG-WC index, and 0.585 for the TyG-WHtR index, respectively. Regarding cardiovascular mortality, the C-index was 0.561 for the TyG index, 0.607 for the TyG-WC index, and 0.615 for the TyG-WHtR index, respectively. Nonlinear trends were observed between TyG and TyG-WC indices with all-cause mortality of MASLD (P < 0.001 and = 0.012, respectively). A non-linear relationship was observed between the TyG index and cardiovascular mortality of MASLD (P = 0.025). Subgroup analysis suggested that adults aged < 65 years old and those without comorbidities were more sensitive to the mortality prediction of TyG-related indices. CONCLUSION: Findings of this study highlight the predictive value of TyG-related indices, especially the TyG-WHtR index, in the mortality outcomes of adults with MASLD. TyG-related indices would be surrogate biomarkers for the clinical management of MASLD.

Clinical outcomes of MAFLD versus NAFLD: A meta-analysis of observational studies.

IMPORTANCE: The recent change in terminology from nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) to metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MAFLD) and metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) highlights the link between hepatic steatosis and metabolic dysfunction, taking out the stigmata of alcohol. OBJECTIVE: We compared the effects of NAFLD and MAFLD definitions on the risk of overall and cardiovascular (CV) mortality, liver-related events (LRE), nonfatal CV events (CVE), chronic kidney disease (CKD), and extra-hepatic cancers (EHC). DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: We systematically searched four large electronic databases for cohort studies (published through August 2023) that simultaneously used NAFLD and MAFLD definitions for examining the risk of mortality and adverse CV, renal, or oncological outcomes associated with both definitions. In total, 21 eligible cohort studies were identified. Meta-analysis was performed using random-effects modelling. RESULTS: Compared with those with NAFLD, individuals with MAFLD had significantly higher rates of overall mortality (random-effect OR 1.12, 95% CI 1.04-1.21, p = .004) and CV mortality (random-effect OR 1.15, 95% CI 1.04-1.26, p = .004), and a marginal trend towards higher rates of developing CKD (random-effect OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.00-1.12, p = .058) and EHC events (random-effect OR 1.11, 95% CI 1.00-1.23, p = .052). We found no significant differences in the risk LREs and nonfatal CVE between MAFLD and NAFLD. Meta-regression analyses identified male sex and metabolic comorbidities as the strongest risk factors related to the risk of adverse clinical outcomes in MAFLD compared to NAFLD. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Individuals with MAFLD have higher rates of overall and CV mortality and higher rates of developing CKD and EHC events than those with NAFLD, possibly due to the dysmetabolic risk profile related to MAFLD.

Sex differences in mortality and liver-related events in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Many systematic reviews explore the association of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) with mortality, but none of them explores sex-based differences in detail. We aimed to assess whether NAFLD is associated with cause-specific mortality, all-cause mortality, and cancer incidence in both men and women. METHODS: The PubMed, Embase, and Medline databases were searched from inception through April 2023 for eligible studies. We separately pooled relative risks (RRs) for men and women using a random effects model. Subsequently, the RRs and 95% CIs (confidence intervals) in each study were used to calculate the women-to-men ratio of RRs (RRR). Furthermore, subgroup analyses were performed to explore the robustness of outcomes. The random-effects model was employed to conduct sensitivity analyses to determine the impact of specific studies on the overall findings. RESULTS: The meta-analysis included nine cohort studies comprising 557 614 patients with NAFLD were chosen. Women were 44% more likely than men to get cancer among those with NAFLD (RRR: 1.44; 95% CI: 1.02-2.04; p = .039). However, no sex-related differences were observed between NAFLD and all-cause mortality (RRR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.56-2.01; p = .861), liver-related mortality (RRR: 1.06; 95% CI: 0.02-69.82; p = .977), cardiovascular mortality (RRR: 1; 95% CI: 0.65-1.53; p = .987) and liver cancer (RRR: 0.76; 95% CI: 0.43-1.36; p = .36). CONCLUSIONS: There may be sex variations between NAFLD and the risk of cancer, with the connection being stronger in females than in males.

Impact of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and fibrosis on mortality and kidney outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease: A multi-cohort longitudinal study.

AIM: To evaluate the impact of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) presence and fibrosis risk on adverse outcomes in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease. METHODS: Data were sourced from two longitudinal cohorts: 1172 patients from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and 326 patients from the kidney biopsy cohort at the West China Hospital of Sichuan University. Cox regression estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for NAFLD and liver fibrosis concerning adverse clinical outcomes. Subsequently, a two-sample Mendelian randomization study using genome-wide association study statistics explored NAFLD's potential causal link to cardio-cerebrovascular events. RESULTS: In the NHANES cohort, NAFLD stood as an independent risk factor for various outcomes: overall mortality [HR 1.53 (95% confidence interval, CI 1.21-1.95)], mortality because of cardio-cerebrovascular diseases [HR 1.63 (95% CI 1.12-2.37)], heart disease [HR 1.58 (95% CI 1.00-2.49)], and cerebrovascular disease [HR 3.95 (95% CI 1.48-10.55)]. Notably, advanced liver fibrosis, identified by a fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) score >2.67, exhibited associations with overall mortality, cardio-cerebrovascular disease mortality and heart disease mortality. Within the kidney biopsy cohort, NAFLD correlated with future end-stage kidney disease [ESKD; HR 2.17 (95% CI 1.41-3.34)], while elevated FIB-4 or NAFLD Fibrosis Scores predicted future ESKD, following full adjustment. Liver fibrosis was positively correlated with renal interstitial fibrosis and tubular atrophy in biopsies. Further Mendelian randomization analysis supported a causal relationship between NAFLD and cardio-cerebrovascular events. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease, the NAFLD presence and elevated FIB-4 scores link to heightened mortality risk and ESKD susceptibility. Moreover, NAFLD shows a causal relationship with cardio-cerebrovascular events.

Impact of Income-to-Poverty Ratio on Long-Term Mortality of Persons with Chronic Liver Disease in the USA, 1999-2018.

INTRODUCTION: Chronic liver disease (CLD) is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Understanding health disparities can inform appropriate interventions. We aimed to study mortality outcomes of those with CLD by the income level (income-to-poverty ratio <5 as lower income and ≥5 as higher income). METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed data of adults from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, 1999-2018. CLD included viral hepatitis, nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), and alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD). RESULTS: We analyzed 59,204 adults: 47,224 without CLD and 11,980 with CLD. The CLD group was older, more likely male, racial/ethnic minority groups or foreign-born, and had lower educational and income levels (p < 0.001). Most (80.02%) CLD participants did not have college degrees and had lower income (79.18%). Among CLD participants, similar differences were observed between lower and higher income groups. Lower income participants with CLD had significantly higher 10-year cumulative mortality compared to higher income CLD participants (15.26 vs. 8.00%, p < 0.001), with consistent findings in viral hepatitis and NAFLD subgroups (p < 0.001) but not ALD (p = 0.71). Adjusting for age, sex, race, birthplace, lower income CLD participants were 2.01 (hazard ratio [HR]: 2.01; 95% CI: 1.79-2.26) times more likely to die overall and in viral hepatitis (HR: 2.05; 95% CI: 1.31-3.24) and NAFLD subgroups (HR: 2.32; 95% CI: 1.69-3.18) but not ALD (HR: 1.17; 95% CI: 0.55-2.51). CONCLUSION: Lower income, foreign-born, and racial/ethnic minority groups were disproportionately represented among those with CLD, with lower income and CLD individuals having double the mortality risk compared to their higher income counterparts. Interventions should be culturally appropriate and address socioeconomic barriers.

Independent Associations of Aortic Calcification with Cirrhosis and Liver Related Mortality in Veterans with Chronic Liver Disease.

INTRODUCTION: Abdominal aortic calcifications (AAC) are incidentally found on medical imaging and useful cardiovascular burden approximations. The Morphomic Aortic Calcification Score (MAC) leverages automated deep learning methods to quantify and score AACs. While associations of AAC and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) have been described, relationships of AAC with other liver diseases and clinical outcome are sparse. This study's purpose was to evaluate AAC and liver-related death in a cohort of Veterans with chronic liver disease (CLD). METHODS: We utilized the VISN 10 CLD cohort, a regional cohort of Veterans with the three forms of CLD: NAFLD, hepatitis C (HCV), alcohol-associated (ETOH), seen between 2008 and 2014, with abdominal CT scans (n = 3604). Associations between MAC and cirrhosis development, liver decompensation, liver-related death, and overall death were evaluated with Cox proportional hazard models. RESULTS: The full cohort demonstrated strong associations of MAC and cirrhosis after adjustment: HR 2.13 (95% CI 1.63, 2.78), decompensation HR 2.19 (95% CI 1.60, 3.02), liver-related death HR 2.13 (95% CI 1.46, 3.11), and overall death HR 1.47 (95% CI 1.27, 1.71). These associations seemed to be driven by the non-NAFLD groups for decompensation and liver-related death [HR 2.80 (95% CI 1.52, 5.17; HR 2.34 (95% CI 1.14, 4.83), respectively]. DISCUSSION: MAC was strongly and independently associated with cirrhosis, liver decompensation, liver-related death, and overall death. Surprisingly, stratification results demonstrated comparable or stronger associations among those with non-NAFLD etiology. These findings suggest abdominal aortic calcification may predict liver disease severity and clinical outcomes in patients with CLD.

Predictability of noninvasive liver fibrosis score for cardiac events in patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) have a higher risk of cardiac events. However, although the severity of liver fibrosis is related to worsening prognosis in patients with NAFLD, it is unclear whether the noninvasive liver fibrosis score has a predictive value for cardiac events. METHODS AND RESULTS: We evaluated 4071 patients with NAFLD diagnosed using ultrasonography. Liver fibrosis was assessed and divided into three groups based on the Fibrosis-4 (FIB4) index and NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS). The primary outcome of this study was major adverse cardiac events (MACE), including cardiac death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, and revascularization due to coronary artery disease. The median age of the evaluated patients was 61 (52-69) years, and 2201 (54.1%) were male. During the median follow-up period of 6.6 years, 179 (4.4%) patients experienced MACE. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated that MACE increased progressively with the FIB4 index (log-rank, p < 0.001) and NFS (log-rank, p < 0.001). Multivariable analysis showed that the higher the FIB4 index, the higher the risk for MACE (low group as reference vs. intermediate group, hazard ratio [HR]: 1.860 [95% confidence interval (CI), 1.326-2.610; p < 0.001]; vs. high group, HR:3.325 [95% CI, 2.017-5.479; p < 0.001]), as well as NFS (low NFS group as reference vs. intermediate group, HR: 1.938 [95% CI, 1.391-2.699; p < 0.001]; vs. high group, HR: 3.492 [95% CI, 1.997-6.105; p < 0.001]). CONCLUSIONS: The FIB4 index and NFS are associated with the probability of MACE in patients with NAFLD. CLINICAL TRIALS: The study design was approved by the ethics review board of Ogaki Municipal Hospital (approval number: 20221124-12, registration date: November 28th, 2022). https://www.ogaki-mh.jp/chiken/kenkyu.html.

Comparative analysis of perioperative and long-term outcomes of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease versus viral hepatitis.

BACKGROUND: Despite the accumulating evidence regarding the oncological differences between nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-related hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) and viral infection-related HCC, the short- and long-term outcomes of surgical resection of NAFLD-related HCC remain unclear. While some reports indicate improved postoperative survival in NAFLD-related HCC, other studies suggest higher postoperative complications in these patients. METHODS: Patients with NAFLD and those with hepatitis viral infection who underwent hepatectomy for HCC at our department were retrospectively analyzed. The clinical, surgical, pathological, and survival outcomes were compared between the two groups. RESULTS: Among the 1047 consecutive patients who underwent hepatectomy for HCC, 57 had NAFLD-related HCC (NAFLD group), and 727 had virus-related HCC (VH group). The body mass index and serum glycated hemoglobin levels were significantly higher in the NAFLD group than in the VH group. There were no significant differences in operative time and bleeding amount. Moreover, the morbidity and the length of postoperative hospital stays were similar across both groups. The pathological results showed that the tumor size was significantly larger in the NAFLD group than in the VH group. No significant differences between the groups in overall or recurrence-free survival were found. In a subgroup analysis with matched tumor diameters, patients in the NAFLD group had a better prognosis after hepatectomy than those in the VH group. CONCLUSION: Surgical outcomes after hepatectomy were comparable between the groups. Subgroup analysis reveals early detection and surgical intervention in NAFLD-HCC may improve prognosis.

Accurate prediction of all-cause mortality in patients with metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease using electronic health records.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Despite the huge clinical burden of MASLD, validated tools for early risk stratification are lacking, and heterogeneous disease expression and a highly variable rate of progression to clinical outcomes result in prognostic uncertainty. We aimed to investigate longitudinal electronic health record-based outcome prediction in MASLD using a state-of-the-art machine learning model. PATIENTS AND METHODS: n = 940 patients with histologically-defined MASLD were used to develop a deep-learning model for all-cause mortality prediction. Patient timelines, spanning 12 years, were fully-annotated with demographic/clinical characteristics, ICD-9 and -10 codes, blood test results, prescribing data, and secondary care activity. A Transformer neural network (TNN) was trained to output concomitant probabilities of 12-, 24-, and 36-month all-cause mortality. In-sample performance was assessed using 5-fold cross-validation. Out-of-sample performance was assessed in an independent set of n = 528 MASLD patients. RESULTS: In-sample model performance achieved AUROC curve 0.74-0.90 (95 % CI: 0.72-0.94), sensitivity 64 %-82 %, specificity 75 %-92 % and Positive Predictive Value (PPV) 94 %-98 %. Out-of-sample model validation had AUROC 0.70-0.86 (95 % CI: 0.67-0.90), sensitivity 69 %-70 %, specificity 96 %-97 % and PPV 75 %-77 %. Key predictive factors, identified using coefficients of determination, were age, presence of type 2 diabetes, and history of hospital admissions with length of stay >14 days. CONCLUSIONS: A TNN, applied to routinely-collected longitudinal electronic health records, achieved good performance in prediction of 12-, 24-, and 36-month all-cause mortality in patients with MASLD. Extrapolation of our technique to population-level data will enable scalable and accurate risk stratification to identify people most likely to benefit from anticipatory health care and personalized interventions.

Lean non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and the risk of all-cause mortality: An updated meta-analysis.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Cohort studies reported controversial results regarding the long-term prognosis of patients with lean non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) compared to non-lean NAFLD patients. This updated meta-analysis aimed to estimate the magnitude of the association between lean body mass index and all-cause mortality risk in NAFLD patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We systematically searched the EMBASE and MEDLINE databases from inception to March 2023 to identify observational studies that reported hazard ratio (HR) for all-cause mortality of patients with lean NAFLD versus those with non-lean, overweight, or obese NAFLD. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for all-cause mortality were pooled using a random effects model. RESULTS: Fourteen studies with 94,181 NAFLD patients (11.3 % with lean NAFLD) and 7,443 fatal events over a median follow-up of 8.4 years (IQR, 6.6-17.4 years) were included. Patients with lean NAFLD had a higher risk of all-cause mortality than those with non-lean NAFLD (random-effects HR 1.61, 95 % CI 1.37-1.89; I2=77 %). The magnitude of this risk remained unchanged even after stratified analysis by measures of NAFLD diagnosis, study country, cohort setting, length of follow-up, adjustment with fibrosis stage/cirrhosis, and the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. The risk was independent of age, sex, and cardiometabolic risk factors. Sensitivity analyses did not alter these findings. The funnel plot and Egger's test revealed no significant publication bias. CONCLUSIONS: This meta-analysis revealed that lean NAFLD is associated with an approximately 1.6-fold increased mortality risk. Further studies are needed to unravel the existing but complex link between lean NAFLD and an increased risk of death.

Societal costs and survival of patients with biopsy-verified non-alcoholic steatohepatitis: Danish nationwide register-based study.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Studies on the societal burden of patients with biopsy-confirmed non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are sparse. This study examined this question, comparing NAFLD with matched reference groups. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Nationwide Danish healthcare registers were used to include all patients (≥18 years) diagnosed with biopsy-verified NAFLD (1997-2021). Patients were classified as having simple steatosis or non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) with or without cirrhosis, and all matched with liver-disease free reference groups. Healthcare costs and labour market outcomes were compared from 5 years before to 11 years after diagnosis. Patients were followed for 25 years to analyse risk of disability insurance and death. RESULTS: 3,712 patients with biopsy-verified NASH (n = 1,030), simple steatosis (n = 1,540) or cirrhosis (n = 1,142) were identified. The average total costs in the year leading up to diagnosis was 4.1-fold higher for NASH patients than the reference group (EUR 6,318), 6.2-fold higher for cirrhosis patients and 3.1-fold higher for simple steatosis patients. In NASH, outpatient hospital contacts were responsible for 49 % of the excess costs (EUR 3,121). NASH patients had statistically significantly lower income than their reference group as early as five years before diagnosis until nine years after diagnosis, and markedly higher risk of becoming disability insurance recipients (HR: 4.37; 95 % CI: 3.17-6.02) and of death (HR: 2.42; 95 % CI: 1.80-3.25). CONCLUSIONS: NASH, simple steatosis and cirrhosis are all associated with substantial costs for the individual and the society with excess healthcare costs and poorer labour market outcomes.

Outcomes and risk factors for mortality in clostridioides difficile infection in patients with NAFLD and NASH.

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES: Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is the most common liver disease worldwide and can progress to non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) and, ultimately, cirrhosis. Clostridioides difficile is the most common nosocomial cause of diarrhea and is associated with worse clinical outcomes in other liver diseases, including cirrhosis, but has not been extensively evaluated in concomitant NAFLD/NASH. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study using the National Inpatient Sample database from 2015 to 2017. Patients with a diagnosis of CDI, NAFLD, and NASH were identified using International Classification of Diseases (Tenth Revision) codes. The outcomes of our study include length of stay, hospitalization cost, mortality, and predictors of mortality. RESULTS: The CDI and NASH cohort had a higher degree of comorbidity burden and prevalence of peptic ulcer disease, congestive heart failure, diabetes mellitus, and cirrhosis. Patients with NASH and CDI had a significantly higher mortality rate compared to the CDI only cohort (mortality, 7.11 % vs. 6.36 %; P = 0.042). Patients with CDI and NASH were at increased risk for liver-related complications, acute kidney injury, and septic shock (P < 0.001) compared to patients with CDI only. Older age, intestinal complications, pneumonia, sepsis and septic shock, and liver failure conferred an increased risk of mortality among the CDI and NASH cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with NASH had a higher rate of liver-related complications, progression to septic shock, and mortality rate following CDI infection compared to the CDI only cohort.

Sugar-Sweetened and Artificially Sweetened Beverages and Risk of Liver Cancer and Chronic Liver Disease Mortality.

Importance: Approximately 65% of adults in the US consume sugar-sweetened beverages daily. Objective: To study the associations between intake of sugar-sweetened beverages, artificially sweetened beverages, and incidence of liver cancer and chronic liver disease mortality. Design, Setting, and Participants: A prospective cohort with 98 786 postmenopausal women aged 50 to 79 years enrolled in the Women's Health Initiative from 1993 to 1998 at 40 clinical centers in the US and were followed up to March 1, 2020. Exposures: Sugar-sweetened beverage intake was assessed based on a food frequency questionnaire administered at baseline and defined as the sum of regular soft drinks and fruit drinks (not including fruit juice); artificially sweetened beverage intake was measured at 3-year follow-up. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcomes were (1) liver cancer incidence, and (2) mortality due to chronic liver disease, defined as death from nonalcoholic fatty liver disease, liver fibrosis, cirrhosis, alcoholic liver diseases, and chronic hepatitis. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate multivariable hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for liver cancer incidence and for chronic liver disease mortality, adjusting for potential confounders including demographics and lifestyle factors. Results: During a median follow-up of 20.9 years, 207 women developed liver cancer and 148 died from chronic liver disease. At baseline, 6.8% of women consumed 1 or more sugar-sweetened beverage servings per day, and 13.1% consumed 1 or more artificially sweetened beverage servings per day at 3-year follow-up. Compared with intake of 3 or fewer servings of sugar-sweetened beverages per month, those who consumed 1 or more servings per day had a significantly higher risk of liver cancer (18.0 vs 10.3 per 100 000 person-years [P value for trend = .02]; adjusted HR, 1.85 [95% CI, 1.16-2.96]; P = .01) and chronic liver disease mortality (17.7 vs 7.1 per 100 000 person-years [P value for trend <.001]; adjusted HR, 1.68 [95% CI, 1.03-2.75]; P = .04). Compared with intake of 3 or fewer artificially sweetened beverages per month, individuals who consumed 1 or more artificially sweetened beverages per day did not have significantly increased incidence of liver cancer (11.8 vs 10.2 per 100 000 person-years [P value for trend = .70]; adjusted HR, 1.17 [95% CI, 0.70-1.94]; P = .55) or chronic liver disease mortality (7.1 vs 5.3 per 100 000 person-years [P value for trend = .32]; adjusted HR, 0.95 [95% CI, 0.49-1.84]; P = .88). Conclusions and Relevance: In postmenopausal women, compared with consuming 3 or fewer servings of sugar-sweetened beverages per month, those who consumed 1 or more sugar-sweetened beverages per day had a higher incidence of liver cancer and death from chronic liver disease. Future studies should confirm these findings and identify the biological pathways of these associations.

Caucasian lean subjects with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease share long-term prognosis of non-lean: time for reappraisal of BMI-driven approach?

OBJECTIVE: The full phenotypic expression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in lean subjects is incompletely characterised. We aimed to investigate prevalence, characteristics and long-term prognosis of Caucasian lean subjects with NAFLD. DESIGN: The study cohort comprises 1339 biopsy-proven NAFLD subjects from four countries (Italy, UK, Spain and Australia), stratified into lean and non-lean (body mass index (BMI) 10 483 person-years), 4.7% of lean vs 7.7% of non-lean patients reported liver-related events (p=0.37). No difference in survival was observed compared with non-lean NAFLD (p=0.069). CONCLUSIONS: Caucasian lean subjects with NAFLD may progress to advanced liver disease, develop metabolic comorbidities and experience cardiovascular disease (CVD) as well as liver-related mortality, independent of longitudinal progression to obesity and PNPLA3 genotype. These patients represent one end of a wide spectrum of phenotypic expression of NAFLD where the disease manifests at lower overall BMI thresholds. LAY SUMMARY: NAFLD may affect and progress in both obese and lean individuals. Lean subjects are predominantly males, have a younger age at diagnosis and are more prevalent in some geographic areas. During the follow-up, lean subjects can develop hepatic and extrahepatic disease, including metabolic comorbidities, in the absence of weight gain. These patients represent one end of a wide spectrum of phenotypic expression of NAFLD.

Acute on Chronic Liver Failure From Nonalcoholic Fatty Liver Disease: A Growing and Aging Cohort With Rising Mortality.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: We assessed the burden of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD)-related acute on chronic liver failure (ACLF) among transplant candidates in the United States, along with waitlist outcomes for this population. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We analyzed the United Network for Organ Sharing registry from 2005 to 2017. Patients with ACLF were identified using the European Association for the Study of the Liver/Chronic Liver Failure criteria and categorized into NAFLD, alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), and hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. We used linear regression and Chow's test to determine significance in trends and evaluated waitlist outcomes using Fine and Gray's competing risks regression and Cox proportional hazards regression. Between 2005 and 2017, waitlist registrants for NAFLD-ACLF rose by 331.6% from 134 to 574 candidates (P < 0.001), representing the largest percentage increase in the study population. ALD-ACLF also increased by 206.3% (348-1,066 registrants; P < 0.001), whereas HCV-ACLF declined by 45.2% (P < 0.001). As of 2017, the NAFLD-ACLF population consisted primarily of persons aged ≥60 years (54.1%), and linear regression demonstrated a significant rise in the proportion of patients aged ≥65 in this group (ß = 0.90; P = 0.011). Since 2014, NAFLD-ACLF grade 1 was associated with a greater risk of waitlist mortality relative to ALD-ACLF (subhazard ratio [SHR] = 1.24; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.05-1.44) and HCV-ACLF (SHR = 1.35; 95% CI, 1.08-1.71), among patients aged ≥60 years. Mortality was similar among the three groups for patients with ACLF grade 2 or 3. CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD is the fastest rising etiology of cirrhosis associated with ACLF among patients listed in the United States. As the NAFLD population continues to grow and age, patients with NAFLD-ACLF will likely have the highest risk of waitlist mortality.

Dynamics of Circulating miR-122 Predict Liver Cancer and Mortality in Japanese Patients with Histopathologically Confirmed NAFLD and Severe Fibrosis Stage.

INTRODUCTION: It is unclear whether the relationships between changes in fibrosis and circulating microRNA-122 (miR-122) dynamics might influence the prognosis of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). METHODS: This study investigates the impact of serum miR-122 dynamics and histological changes on the incidence of liver cancer and mortality in 81 Japanese NAFLD patients who underwent serial liver biopsies. The median interval between the first and second liver biopsies was 2.9 years. RESULTS: The fibrosis stage scores indicated progression, no change, and improvement (a decrease of one point or more) in 21.0%, 56.8%, and 22.2% of the patients, respectively. There were 64 patients in the high-risk group who had no improvement in stage scores. Among these, the miR-122 levels were significantly lower in 7 patients with liver cancer than those of the 54 patients who had no liver cancer at the second liver biopsy. The cumulative rates of liver cancer were significantly higher in cases with miR-122 ratios <0.5 (serum miR-122 level at second biopsy to that at first biopsy) than those with ratios ≥0.5. The cumulative survival rates in cases with miR-122 ratios <0.5 tended to be lower than those with ratios ≥0.5. Of the 64 high-risk patients, 39 indicated stage 2 or greater (severe fibrosis stage) at the first liver biopsy and also showed similar results of cumulative liver cancer and survival rates. CONCLUSIONS: Longitudinal examination of serial liver biopsies indicated that the circulating miR-122 dynamics might be useful in predicting the prognosis for NAFLD patients with severe fibrosis stage and no improvement of the stage scores.