Estimating Lifetime and Residual Risk for Individuals Who Remain Sexual Offense Free in the Community: Practical Applications.

Although individuals with a history of sexual crime are often viewed as a lifelong risk, recent research has drawn attention to consistent declines in recidivism risk for those who remain offense free in the community. Because these declines are predictable, this article demonstrates how evaluators can use the amount of time individuals have remained offense free to (a) extrapolate to lifetime recidivism rates from rates observed for shorter time periods, (b) estimate the risk of sexual recidivism for individuals whose current offense is nonsexual but who have a history of sexual offending, and (c) calculate yearly reductions in risk for individuals who remain offense free in the community. In addition to their practical utility for case-specific decision making, these estimates also provide researchers an objective, empirical method of quantifying the extent to which individuals have desisted from sexual crime.

Craving for Gambling Predicts Income-Generating Offenses: A Pathways Model of a Japanese Prison Population.

The links between gambling and criminal offenses have been frequently reported, but the pathways from gambling to a particular offense have not. Our study applied a pathways model to predict participants' income-generating, drug-related, and violent offenses stemming from their craving for gambling. The participants were 332 male inmates in a Japanese local prison. They answered questionnaires on gambling behavior, alcohol addiction, Internet addiction, impulsivity, and psychopathy. Their official records with information on their current offense, sentence length, number of imprisonments, and length of education were also analyzed. The results show that 38.55% (n = 128) of the participants had a probable gambling disorder, a rate of problem gambling at least four times higher than that among the general Japanese population. Furthermore, their craving for gambling predicted their income-generating offenses, but not their drug-related and violent offenses. Their craving for gambling can thus be linked to their financial issues, rather than their emotional and impulsive issues. The pathways model explained the path not only from addiction/psychopathy to gambling, but also from gambling to committing an income-generating offense.

Do Developmental and Life-Course Theory Risk Factors Equally Predict Age of Onset Among Juvenile Sexual and Nonsexual Offenders?

Previous empirical inquiries into the etiology of juvenile sex offending have been largely atheoretical. Consequently, a call for studies conducted utilizing developmental and life-course (DLC) criminological theory has been made to better understand the onset, development, risk, and protective factors of juvenile sex offending. Therefore, this study contributes to the discussion by testing key predictions proposed by the DLC framework regarding the theoretical correlates of early onset offending, as applied to juvenile sex offenders (JSOs) and juvenile nonsex offenders (JNSOs). Drawing on a data set of more than 64,000 youth referred to the Florida Department of Juvenile Justice, results indicate that although the number and severity of risk factors for early age of onset differ between the JSOs and JNSOs, the specific type of risk factors that emerged align with DLC theory predictions. The implications of these findings and contributions for DLC theory are also discussed.

Neurocriminology: implications for the punishment, prediction and prevention of criminal behaviour.

Criminal behaviour and violence are increasingly viewed as worldwide public health problems. A growing body of knowledge shows that criminal behaviour has a neurobiological basis, and this has intensified judicial interest in the potential application of neuroscience to criminal law. It also gives rise to important questions. What are the implications of such application for predicting future criminal behaviour and protecting society? Can it be used to prevent violence? And what are the implications for the way offenders are punished?

Rebury the "Atavistic Skull" Studied by Lombroso?

On May 16, 2017, the judgment of the Italian court ended the legal battle concerning the repatriation request of the famous skull, belonging to the "brigand" Giuseppe Villella. During the autopsy examination on the corpse of Villella, Lombroso observed a median occipital dimple on the skull, a feature visible in other mammals, including primates, but absent in humans. This feature could demonstrate an anomalous dimension of the median lobe of Villella's cerebellum. From this anatomical finding, Lombroso consolidated the atavism theory, which established a close connection between morphological features and behavior.The Lombroso Museum and the University of Turin reiterated the legitimacy of the possession of the skull as cultural property in accordance with the Code of Cultural Heritage and as a find of forensic psychopathology. Finally, the court rejected the request from Villella's hometown, highlighting that the scientific theory is unquestionably invalid, but his existence cannot be denied.The "special" nature of human remains emerges from the special way in which the Code of Ethics of the International Council of Museums treats them, which also implies respect to the other material of the museum collections.

Does video recording inhibit crime suspects? Evidence from a fully randomized field experiment.

In partnership with a small city police department, we randomly informed or did not inform 122 crime suspects that their interrogations were being video-recorded. Coding of all sessions indicated that camera-informed suspects spoke as often and as much as did those who were not informed; they were as likely to waive Miranda at the outset and later; they were as likely to make admissions and confessions, not just denials; and they were perceived no differently by detectives on a range of dimensions. Looking at distal outcomes, we observed no differences in ultimate case dispositions. In terms of policy and practice, results did not support the hypothesis that recording-even when transparent, as required in 2-party consent states-inhibits suspects or alters case dispositions. At least for now, this conclusion is empirically limited to situations in which cameras are concealed and to interrogations that do not involve juveniles, homicides, or drug crimes, which we a priori excluded from our sample. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2019 APA, all rights reserved).

Childhood Polyvictimization and the Life Course: Associations With Depression and Crime.

Exposure to multiple forms of victimization has been shown to have increasingly negative outcomes, but their unique trajectory-setting effects have been largely unexplored. Using a life course approach, this article examines the life trajectories of child polyvictims. I use a nationwide sample including 3,652 respondents after cleaning and preparation. Seemingly unrelated regressions were used to predict depression and criminal behavior in childhood and adulthood. Results suggest that children who experience multiple forms of parental abuse tend to have life trajectories which grow increasingly worse through the life course. However, life trajectories of children experiencing violence outside the home have less persistent negative outcomes. Researchers and interventions should take differing life trajectories into account when attempting to aid different types of polyvictims.

The primary motivation of sexual homicide offenders in China: Was it for sex, power and control, anger, or money?

BACKGROUND: Information on sexual homicides in China is scarce, particularly with respect to the offenders' primary motivation for the offence. AIMS: Our aim was to examine how offence characteristics of sexual murderers relate to different primary motivations. METHODS: The offender, victim, and offence characteristics of 67 sexual homicides, derived from police data of three regions and published case reports (1994-2017), were explored and compared according to offenders' primary motivation. RESULTS: Heterosexual sexual homicides were committed by offenders who were mainly driven by power and control, sex, and anger, compared with slightly over half of those who motivated primarily by financial gain. Sexual murderers whose killing was mainly driven by sex, money, and anger were more likely to target strangers, whereas offenders who motivated primarily by power and control were more likely to target an intimate partner. Victim abduction was more frequently seen in offenders who were motivated predominantly by money than other motives. Relative to financial gain as primary motivation, sexual killers who were mainly driven by sex, power and control, and anger were more likely to mutilate their victim. IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE: This study adds data to a field rarely studied anywhere and hardly at all in China. Findings may offer some help for criminal investigators who need to prioritise their investigative strategies. Once the individual is convicted and sentenced, they may help direct management and/or therapeutic strategies.

Integrating risk and dangerousness in specific legal contexts: Clarifying concepts and justifying interventions.

Several legal interventions under the police power and parens patriae functions of the state depend partially on judgments that an individual is dangerous. Psychological research regarding risk assessment can provide relevant evidence regarding the appropriate application of these interventions. Developing, interpreting, and presenting relevant research regarding risk assessment in a manner that enhances the ability of courts to make accurate determinations of dangerousness requires clarification of the risk presented by this individual and explanation of how this person generates this risk. Testimony regarding such research can enhance the ability of the courts to make accurate judgments regarding the relationship between the risk presented and the justification for the specific intervention at issue. This article examines the justificatory functions of judgments of dangerousness for various police power and parens patriae interventions in order to clarify the manner in which psychological research and testimony can contribute to the ability of the courts to accurately assess the risk presented by an individual in making a judgment of dangerousness for a specific form of legal intervention.

The case against categorical risk estimates.

Risk estimates can be communicated in a variety of forms, including numeric and categorical formats. An example of the latter is "low/medium/high risk." The categorical format is preferred by judges and practitioners alike, and is mandated by the most commonly utilized forensic risk assessment instruments (the HCR-20 and the Static-99). This article argues against the practice of communicating risk in categorical terms on empirical and normative grounds. Empirically, there is no consensus about what level of risk corresponds to a particular category, such as "high risk." Moreover, recent studies indicate that categorizing an otherwise continuous risk estimate does not add incremental predictive validity to the risk estimate. Normatively, categorization obscures what is fundamentally a value judgment about the relative costs and benefits of correct (e.g., true positive) and incorrect (e.g., false positive) outcomes. Such a judgment is inherently non-scientific and invades the province of the jury. Indeed, categorical risk estimates are in principle no different than "dangerousness predictions," which are simply binary and which have been denounced by the field. The fact that alternative risk communication formats have limitations does not justify continuing the pervasive practice of communicating categorical risk estimates.

Radicalized risk assessment.

In not too long, our system of criminal justice will abandon the mythology of blameworthiness and desert, and not too long after that we will look back on retributive criminal justice with shuddering astonishment. Now, approaching the cusp of change, we have the unusual and ephemeral opportunity to observe and study criminal justice on the way to a paradigm shift, and to think about how the system we have will become the system to come. How will the retributivism we take for granted today be transformed into something different tomorrow? In this paper, I suggest that one of the drivers of the change to come lies in the use of empirically-informed risk assessment technologies in American criminal justice. As they develop, such technologies will inevitably smuggle radically transformative information about human wrongdoing into the criminal justice system and into our thinking about criminal justice generally. Moreover, they will deliver that information in a form well-tailored to drive change - a persistent and increasing flow of vivid, concrete, comprehensible facts that easily build into explanatory narratives about the genetic, environmental, cultural, and experiential causes of criminal behavior. Such concrete and credible criminogenesis narratives, I argue, will fuel deep and stubborn moral anxieties about retributivism, and their cumulative impact will ultimately drive us to reject retributive criminal justice.

Criminal responsibility: Meta-analysis and study space.

While some correlates of criminal responsibility (CR) outcomes are consistent, others are not. Study-level characteristics, such as sample selection, variability in the operational definition of insanity, or other unknown influences may explain discrepant findings. It is critical to systematically consolidate and assess the literature in order to guide future work. We conducted the first meta-analysis and study space analysis (see Malpass et al., ) in this area. 15 studies met inclusion criteria for the meta-analysis, which encompassed 19,500 cases. Summary effects for psycholegal cases indicated that older age, female sex, educational attainment, and unemployment were associated with insanity. Those classified insane more often had psychiatric histories and psychotic disorders. Finally, individuals opined or found insane were less likely to have criminal histories but more likely to have been opined incompetent to stand trial in the past. Importantly, virtually all summary effects were impacted by study design. Study space analyses (N = 7) revealed a dearth of literature that thoroughly addressed theoretically important variables. Taken together, the project provides a comprehensive, empirical analysis of CR correlates and a systematic call for future research.

Algorithmic risk assessments and the double-edged sword of youth.

At sentencing, youth can be considered both a mitigating circumstance because of its association with diminished culpability, and an aggravating circumstance because of its association with crime risk. In theory, judges and parole boards can recognize this double-edged sword phenomenon and balance the mitigating and aggravating effects of youth. But when sentencing authorities rely on algorithmic risk assessments, a practice that is becoming increasingly common, this balancing process may never take place. Algorithmic risk assessments often place heavy weights on age in a manner that is not fully transparent - or, in the case of proprietary "black box" algorithms, not transparent at all. For instance, our analysis of one of the leading black-box tools, the COMPAS Violent Recidivism Risk Score, shows that roughly 60% of the risk score it produces is attributable to age. We argue that this type of fact must be disclosed to sentencing authorities in an easily interpretable manner so that they understand the role an offender's age plays in the risk calculation. Failing to reveal that a stigmatic label such as "high risk of violent crime" is due primarily to a defendant's young age could lead to improper condemnation of a youthful offender, especially given the close association between risk labels and perceptions of character and moral blameworthiness.

An update and expansion on the role of the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and Historical Clinical Risk Management-20 in United States case law.

An individual's risk for future violent behavior may be considered in various legal contexts, including civil commitment, criminal sentencing, or suitability for parole. Among the assessment tools forensic evaluators use to assess violence risk are the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG; Quinsey, Harris, Rice, & Cormier, ) and the Historical Clinical Risk Managment-20 (HCR-20)/Historical Clinical Risk Management-20, Version 3 (HCR-20V3 ) (Webster, Douglas, Eaves, & Hart, and Douglas, Hart, Webster, & Belfrage, , respectively). Previous surveys and case law research suggest that these measures are widely used and perceived to be useful in aiding forensic clinicians. This study provides an update to Vitacco, Erickson, Kurus, and Apple () and examines the use of the HCR-20 and VRAG in United States case law. A LexisNexis review revealed 134 cases decided between 1 January 2010 and 21 December 2016 that included the HCR-20, VRAG, or both. Results revealed that these measures are typically introduced by the prosecution to inform opinions regarding general violence risk. In addition, consistent with previous research, these data suggest the introduction of the HCR-20 and VRAG is rarely challenged and, when challenged, these challenges are rarely successful. However, data suggest that courts and parole boards may focus on specific risk factors (e.g., lack of insight) at the expense of other, more objective factors. Finally, we offer suggestions for clinicians who have transitioned to the newest version of the HCR-20.

Principles of risk assessment for researchers and practitioners.

Risk assessment instruments (RAIs) are generally thought to be more accurate and less susceptible to bias than the type of seat-of-the-pants risk assessment in which judges and parole boards have traditionally engaged. But RAIs bring with them their own set of controversies. This article will discuss three principles - the fit principle, the validity principle, and the fairness principle - that might govern use of RAIs. After providing examples of RAIs, it elaborates on how these principles would affect sentencing, parole and pretrial detention. In the course of doing so, this article also introduces the contributions in this Special Issue of Behavioral Sciences & the Law on "Risk factors and criminal justice."

Gambling Harm and Crime Careers.

Incarcerated populations across the world have been found to be consistently and significantly more vulnerable to problem gambling than general populations in the same countries. In an effort to gain a more specific understanding of this vulnerability the present study applied latent class analysis and criminal career theory to gambling data collected from a sample of English and Scottish, male and female prisoners (N = 1057). Theoretical links between gambling and crime were tested through three hypotheses: (1) that prisoners in the UK would have higher rates of problem gambling behaviour than the national population; (2) that if the link between gambling and crime is coincidental, gambling behaviour would be highly prevalent in an offending population, and (3) if connections between gambling behaviour and offending are co-symptomatic a mediating factor would show a strong association. The first of these was supported, the second was not supported and the third was partially supported. Latent class analysis found six gambling behaviour clusters measured by responses to the Problem Gambling Severity Index, primarily distinguished by loss chasing behaviour. Longitudinal offending data drawn from the Police National Computer database found four criminal career types, distinguished by frequency and persistence over time. A significant association was found between higher level loss chasing and high rate offending in criminal careers suggesting that impulse control may be a mediating factor for both gambling harm and criminal careers.

Inconsistent Responding in a Criminal Forensic Setting: An Evaluation of the VRIN-r and TRIN-r Scales of the MMPI-2-RF.

Criminal forensic evaluations are complicated by the risk that examinees will respond in an unreliable manner. Unreliable responding could occur due to lack of personal investment in the evaluation, severe mental illness, and low cognitive abilities. In this study, 31% of Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2 Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF; Ben-Porath & Tellegen, 2008/2011) profiles were invalid due to random or fixed-responding (T score ≥ 80 on the VRIN-r or TRIN-r scales) in a sample of pretrial criminal defendants evaluated in the context of treatment for competency restoration. Hierarchical regression models showed that symptom exaggeration variables, as measured by inconsistently reported psychiatric symptoms, contributed over and above education and intellectual functioning in their prediction of both random responding and fixed responding. Psychopathology variables, as measured by mood disturbance, better predicted fixed responding after controlling for estimates of cognitive abilities, but did not improve the prediction for random responding. These findings suggest that random responding and fixed responding are not only affected by education and intellectual functioning, but also by intentional exaggeration and aspects of psychopathology. Measures of intellectual functioning and effort and response style should be considered for administration in conjunction with self-report personality measures to rule out rival hypotheses of invalid profiles.

For whom does deterrence affect behavior? Identifying key individual differences.

Deterrence threats are essential mechanisms for affecting behavior, yet they are often ineffective. The literature is beginning to consider individual differences underlying differential susceptibility to deterrence. The present study sampled 223 adults from Amazon Mechanical Turk and used an experimental cheating paradigm to examine the role of 3 individual differences, including morality, self-control, and rule orientation, underlying differential susceptibility to deterrence. The results indicate that deterrence threats may be more influential for people who have low moral disengagement, who possess more self-control, or who are more rule oriented. These findings indicate that important individual differences underlie susceptibility to deterrence. (PsycINFO Database Record

Tablet computers and forensic and correctional psychological assessment: A randomized controlled study.

Mobile computing technology presents various possibilities and challenges for psychological assessment. Within forensic and correctional psychology, assessment of justice-involved persons facilitated by such technology has not been empirically examined. Accordingly, this randomized controlled experiment involved administering questionnaires about risk-needs, treatment readiness, and computerized technology opinions to a large (N = 212) and diverse sample of individuals under custodial correctional supervision using either a tablet computer or traditional paper-and-pencil materials. Results revealed that participants in the paper-and-pencil condition completed the packet of questionnaires faster but omitted items more frequently. Older participants and those with lower levels of education tended to take longer to complete the tablet-administrated measures. The tablet format was rated as more usable irrespective of demographic and personal characteristics, and most participants across the 2 conditions indicated that they would prefer to use computerized technology to complete psychological testing. Administration format did not have a clear effect on attitudes toward correctional rehabilitation services. Noteworthy for researchers is the substantial time saved and absence of practical problems with the tablet condition. Implications for practitioners include the general usability of the devices, their appeal to incarcerated persons, and the potential for tablets to facilitate clinical and administrative tasks with corrections clients. Considering the novel nature of this study, its promising results, and its limitations, future research in this area is warranted. (PsycINFO Database Record

Utility of the MMPI-2 Restructured Form (MMPI-2-RF) in a sample of Lithuanian male offenders.

The aim of the current study was to examine the construct validity of the Multiphasic Personality Inventory-2 Restructured Form (Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory [MMPI]-2-RF; Ben-Porath & Tellegen, 2008/2011) in a correctional setting. More specifically, we examined the associations between MMPI-2-RF scales with external variables relevant for sentence planning as well as the relationship with risk of reconviction assessed with the Offender Assessment System (OASys; Home Office, 2002). A random sample of 228 male offenders from Lithuanian custodial institutions was selected for the study. The results revealed that MMPI-2-RF scale scores differentiated offender groups classified on the basis of external variables, such as history of suicide attempts, violent offending, use of drugs, violence under the influence of alcohol, and early criminal onset, in a manner consistent with conceptual expectations. Moreover, Behavior/Externalizing Dysfunction (BXD), Antisocial Behavior (RC4), Juvenile Conduct Problems (JCP), Substance Abuse (SUB), and Disconstraint-Revised (DISC-r) scale scores evinced correlations with OASys scores that were moderate in magnitude. Results from regression analyses showed that MMPI-2-RF scale scores accounted for approximately 21% of variance of OASys risk of reconviction scores. Overall, the findings provide support for the utility of the MMPI-2-RF in Lithuanian correctional institutions. (PsycINFO Database Record