Modeling potential responses to smallpox as a bioterrorist weapon.
Emerg Infect Dis
; 7(6): 959-69, 2001.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-11747722
ABSTRACT
We constructed a mathematical model to describe the spread of smallpox after a deliberate release of the virus. Assuming 100 persons initially infected and 3 persons infected per infectious person, quarantine alone could stop disease transmission but would require a minimum daily removal rate of 50% of those with overt symptoms. Vaccination would stop the outbreak within 365 days after release only if disease transmission were reduced to <0.85 persons infected per infectious person. A combined vaccination and quarantine campaign could stop an outbreak if a daily quarantine rate of 25% were achieved and vaccination reduced smallpox transmission by > or = 33%. In such a scenario, approximately 4,200 cases would occur and 365 days would be needed to stop the outbreak. Historical data indicate that a median of 2,155 smallpox vaccine doses per case were given to stop outbreaks, implying that a stockpile of 40 million doses should be adequate.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Guerra Biológica
/
Varíola
/
Vacina Antivariólica
/
Modelos de Riscos Proporcionais
/
Surtos de Doenças
/
Bioterrorismo
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Emerg Infect Dis
Assunto da revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
Ano de publicação:
2001
Tipo de documento:
Article