[Predictive ability of a predischarge hour-specific serum bilirubin for hyperbilirubinemia in full term infants]. / Predittività di un algoritmo previsionale dell'iperbilirubinemia neonatale nel neonato a termine.

ABSTRACT

AIM: The aim of this paper was to assess the ability of total serum bilirubin (TSB) levels in the first 3 days of life to predict subsequent nonphysiologic hyperbilirubinemia. METHODS: The predictive ability of an hour-specific nomogram for TSB values in the first week of life was prospectively assessed in 1496 full term neonates admitted to a first level neonatal unit, using a single TSB value or two consecutive ones, when available. RESULTS: The incidence of TSB values > 12 mg/dL was 9.6%, while the incidence of TSB > 15 mg/dL was 2.6%. A sensitivity of 97.9% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 99.6% were obtained with a single bilirubin determination applying Trend 12, while 82.5% of sensitivity and 99.4% of NPV were obtained with Trend 15. Two consecutive TSB determinations identified all infants reaching TSB values > 12 mg/dL and all neonates but 5 reaching TSB values > 15 mg/dL (92.1% of sensitivity and 99% of NPV) CONCLUSION: The hour-specific TSB determination in the first 3 days of life is able to predict all neonates at risk of nonphysiologic hyperbilirubinemia and could facilitate a safe discharge from the hospital and a targeted intervention and follow-up.