Antiviral treatment for the control of pandemic influenza: some logistical constraints.
J R Soc Interface
; 5(22): 545-53, 2008 May 06.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-17725972
ABSTRACT
Disease control programmes for an influenza pandemic will rely initially on the deployment of antiviral drugs such as Tamiflu, until a vaccine becomes available. However, such control programmes may be severely hampered by logistical constraints such as a finite stockpile of drugs and a limit on the distribution rate. We study the effects of such constraints using a compartmental modelling approach. We find that the most aggressive possible antiviral programme minimizes the final epidemic size, even if this should lead to premature stockpile run-out. Moreover, if the basic reproductive number R(0) is not too high, such a policy can avoid run-out altogether. However, where run-out would occur, such benefits must be weighed against the possibility of a higher epidemic peak than if a more conservative policy were followed. Where there is a maximum number of treatment courses that can be dispensed per day, reflecting a manpower limit on antiviral distribution, our results suggest that such a constraint is unlikely to have a significant impact (i.e. increasing the final epidemic size by more than 10%), as long as drug courses sufficient to treat at least 6% of the population can be dispensed per day.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Antivirais
/
Surtos de Doenças
/
Influenza Humana
/
Virus da Influenza A Subtipo H5N1
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J R Soc Interface
Ano de publicação:
2008
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Reino Unido