Incidence of primary liver cancer in Italy between 1988 and 2002: an age-period-cohort analysis.

ABSTRACT

We conducted in Italy a study to evaluate trends of primary liver cancer (PLC) and to disentangle the period from birth-cohort effects on PLC incidence. Cases aged<80 years and diagnosed between 1988 and 2002 in 20 areas covered by population-based Cancer Registries were included. Age-standardised incidence rates and age-period-cohort effects were estimated. In 1998-2002, incidence rates of PLC were 21.1/100,000 men and 6.0/100,000 women. In both genders, incidence rates increased slightly between 1988-1992 and 1993-1997 but did not rise thereafter. Amongst men, PLC risk increased in every cohort born after 1913 and the rise became steeper for cohorts born in 1948. In women, an upward trend appeared only in the cohorts born after 1953. Incidence of PLC over the last two decades in Italy did not substantially change but huge geographical variability emerged, mainly due to different times and modalities of spread of hepatitis C virus.