Prospective development and validation of a model to predict heart failure hospitalisation.
Heart
; 100(12): 923-9, 2014 Jun.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-24647052
ABSTRACT
OBJECTIVE:
Acute heart failure syndrome (AHFS) is a major cause of hospitalisation and imparts a substantial burden on patients and healthcare systems. Tools to define risk of AHFS hospitalisation are lacking.METHODS:
A prospective cohort study (n=628) of patients with stable chronic heart failure (CHF) secondary to left ventricular systolic dysfunction was used to derive an AHFS prediction model which was then assessed in a prospectively recruited validation cohort (n=462).RESULTS:
Within the derivation cohort, 44 (7%) patients were hospitalised as a result of AHFS during 1â year of follow-up. Predictors of AHFS hospitalisation included furosemide equivalent dose, the presence of type 2 diabetes mellitus, AHFS hospitalisation within the previous year and pulmonary congestion on chest radiograph, all assessed at baseline. A multivariable model containing these four variables exhibited good calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.38) and discrimination (C-statistic 0.77; 95% CI 0.71 to 0.84). Using a 2.5% risk cut-off for predicted AHFS, the model defined 38.5% of patients as low risk, with negative predictive value of 99.1%; this low risk cohort exhibited <1% excess all-cause mortality per annum when compared with contemporaneous actuarial data. Within the validation cohort, an identically applied model derived comparable performance parameters (C-statistic 0.81 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.87), Hosmer-Lemeshow p=0.15, negative predictive value 100%).CONCLUSIONS:
A prospectively derived and validated model using simply obtained clinical data can identify patients with CHF at low risk of hospitalisation due to AHFS in the year following assessment. This may guide the design of future strategies allocating resources to the management of CHF.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Técnicas de Apoio para a Decisão
/
Disfunção Ventricular Esquerda
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Insuficiência Cardíaca
/
Hospitalização
Tipo de estudo:
Clinical_trials
/
Diagnostic_studies
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Etiology_studies
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Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Aged
/
Female
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Humans
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Male
/
Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Heart
Assunto da revista:
CARDIOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2014
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Reino Unido