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Incorporating cold-air pooling into downscaled climate models increases potential refugia for snow-dependent species within the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion, CA.
Curtis, Jennifer A; Flint, Lorraine E; Flint, Alan L; Lundquist, Jessica D; Hudgens, Brian; Boydston, Erin E; Young, Julie K.
Afiliação
  • Curtis JA; U. S. Geological Survey, California Water Science Center, Eureka, California, United States of America.
  • Flint LE; U. S. Geological Survey, California Water Science Center, Sacramento, California, United States of America.
  • Flint AL; U. S. Geological Survey, California Water Science Center, Placer Hall, California, United States of America.
  • Lundquist JD; University of Washington, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seattle, Washington, United States of America.
  • Hudgens B; Institute for Wildlife Studies, Arcata, California, United States of America.
  • Boydston EE; U. S. Geological Survey, Western Ecological Research Center, Thousand Oaks, California, United States of America.
  • Young JK; U. S. Department of Agriculture, Wildlife Services, National Wildlife Research Center and Utah State University, Wildland Resources Department, Logan, Utah, United States of America.
PLoS One ; 9(9): e106984, 2014.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-25188379
We present a unique water-balance approach for modeling snowpack under historic, current and future climates throughout the Sierra Nevada Ecoregion. Our methodology uses a finer scale (270 m) than previous regional studies and incorporates cold-air pooling, an atmospheric process that sustains cooler temperatures in topographic depressions thereby mitigating snowmelt. Our results are intended to support management and conservation of snow-dependent species, which requires characterization of suitable habitat under current and future climates. We use the wolverine (Gulo gulo) as an example species and investigate potential habitat based on the depth and extent of spring snowpack within four National Park units with proposed wolverine reintroduction programs. Our estimates of change in spring snowpack conditions under current and future climates are consistent with recent studies that generally predict declining snowpack. However, model development at a finer scale and incorporation of cold-air pooling increased the persistence of April 1st snowpack. More specifically, incorporation of cold-air pooling into future climate projections increased April 1st snowpack by 6.5% when spatially averaged over the study region and the trajectory of declining April 1st snowpack reverses at mid-elevations where snow pack losses are mitigated by topographic shading and cold-air pooling. Under future climates with sustained or increased precipitation, our results indicate a high likelihood for the persistence of late spring snowpack at elevations above approximately 2,800 m and identify potential climate refugia sites for snow-dependent species at mid-elevations, where significant topographic shading and cold-air pooling potential exist.
Assuntos

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Adaptação Fisiológica / Modelos Estatísticos / Conservação dos Recursos Naturais / Mustelidae / Ar / Refúgio de Vida Selvagem Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Animals País/Região como assunto: America do norte Idioma: En Revista: PLoS One Assunto da revista: CIENCIA / MEDICINA Ano de publicação: 2014 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Estados Unidos

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Adaptação Fisiológica / Modelos Estatísticos / Conservação dos Recursos Naturais / Mustelidae / Ar / Refúgio de Vida Selvagem Tipo de estudo: Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies Limite: Animals País/Região como assunto: America do norte Idioma: En Revista: PLoS One Assunto da revista: CIENCIA / MEDICINA Ano de publicação: 2014 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Estados Unidos