A preoperative nomogram to predict the risk of synchronous distant metastases at diagnosis of primary breast cancer.
Br J Cancer
; 112(6): 992-7, 2015 Mar 17.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-25668007
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
The detection of synchronous metastases at primary diagnosis of breast cancer (BC) affects its initial management. A risk calculator that incorporates many factors to evaluate an individual's risk of harbouring synchronous metastases would be useful to adapt cancer management. PATIENTS ANDMETHODS:
Patients with primary diagnosis of BC were identified from three institutional databases sharing homogeneous work-up recommendations. A risk score for synchronous metastases was estimated and a nomogram was constructed using the first database. Its performance was assessed by receiver characteristic (ROC) analysis. The nomogram was externally validated in the two independent cohorts.RESULTS:
A preoperative nomogram based on the clinical tumour size (P<0.001), clinical nodal status (P<0.001), oestrogen (P=0.17) and progesterone receptors (P=0.04) was developed. The nomogram accuracy was 87.3% (95% confidence interval (CI), 84.45-90.2%). Overall, the area under the ROC curve (AUC) was 86.1% for the validation set from the Institut Curie-René Huguenin, and 63.8% for the MD Anderson validation set. The negative predictive value (NPV) was high in the three cohorts (97-99%).CONCLUSIONS:
We developed and validated a strong metastasis risk calculator that can evaluate with high accuracy an individual's risk of harbouring synchronous metastases at diagnosis of primary BC. CONDENSED ABSTRACT A nomogram to predict synchronous metastases at diagnosis of breast cancer was developed and externally validated. This tool allows avoiding unnecessary expensive work-up.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Neoplasias da Mama
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Nomogramas
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Neoplasias Primárias Múltiplas
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Etiology_studies
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Guideline
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Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adult
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Aged
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Aged80
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Female
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Humans
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Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Br J Cancer
Ano de publicação:
2015
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
França