A prediction model for spontaneous regression of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2, based on simple clinical parameters.
Hum Pathol
; 59: 62-69, 2017 01.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-27697590
ABSTRACT
This study aims to develop a prediction model for spontaneous regression of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 2 (CIN 2) lesions based on simple clinicopathological parameters. The study was conducted at Maastricht University Medical Center, the Netherlands. The prediction model was developed in a retrospective cohort of 129 women with a histologic diagnosis of CIN 2 who were managed by watchful waiting for 6 to 24months. Five potential predictors for spontaneous regression were selected based on the literature and expert opinion and were analyzed in a multivariable logistic regression model, followed by backward stepwise deletion based on the Wald test. The prediction model was internally validated by the bootstrapping method. Discriminative capacity and accuracy were tested by assessing the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and a calibration plot. Disease regression within 24months was seen in 91 (71%) of 129 patients. A prediction model was developed including the following variables smoking, Papanicolaou test outcome before the CIN 2 diagnosis, concomitant CIN 1 diagnosis in the same biopsy, and more than 1 biopsy containing CIN 2. Not smoking, Papanicolaou class <3, concomitant CIN 1, and no more than 1 biopsy containing CIN 2 were predictive of disease regression. The AUC was 69.2% (95% confidence interval, 58.5%-79.9%), indicating a moderate discriminative ability of the model. The calibration plot indicated good calibration of the predicted probabilities. This prediction model for spontaneous regression of CIN 2 may aid physicians in the personalized management of these lesions.
Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Displasia do Colo do Útero
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Neoplasias do Colo do Útero
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Técnicas de Apoio para a Decisão
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Regressão Neoplásica Espontânea
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
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Observational_studies
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Prognostic_studies
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Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adolescent
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Adult
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Aged
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Female
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Humans
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Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
Europa
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Hum Pathol
Assunto da revista:
PATOLOGIA
Ano de publicação:
2017
Tipo de documento:
Article