Derivation and Validation of a Clinical Prediction Scale for Isolated Distal Deep Venous Thrombosis in Patients after Acute Ischemic Stroke.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: Isolated distal deep venous thrombosis (IDDVT) is a common complication after ischemic stroke. However, there is a paucity of evidence regarding the clinical features and risk factors of IDDVT in patients with acute ischemic stroke. This study aimed to establish and validate a clinical prediction scale of IDDVT at an early stage of ischemic stroke development. METHODS: We retrospectively studied consecutive patients with stroke admitted to our neurology department between January and December 2016. Selected clinical variables were assessed by multivariable logistic regression to determine the independent risk factors for IDDVT. A prediction scale was developed and verified by the receiver operating characteristic curve. RESULTS: A total of 671 patients with ischemic stroke were included in the study, with 450 patients allocated into the derivation group and 221 patients into the validation group. A substantial proportion (22.1%) of patients developed IDDVT. A 16-point prediction scale (female gender = 2, older age [≥60 years] = 3, atrial fibrillation = 2, acute infection = 2, active cancer = 5, and higher [≥2.6 mmol/L] level of low-density lipoprotein = 2) derived from a multivariable logistic regression model was highly predictive of 10-day risk of IDDVT in both the validation group (c statistic = .70, 95% confidence interval [CI], .63-0.78, P < .0001) and the derivation group (c statistic = .68, 95% CI, .63-0.74, P < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: This prediction scale may help to identify patients with ischemic stroke who are at a higher risk of developing IDDVT.