Times from Infection to Disease-Induced Death and their Influence on Final Population Sizes After Epidemic Outbreaks.
Bull Math Biol
; 80(7): 1937-1961, 2018 07.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-29785520
ABSTRACT
For epidemic models, it is shown that fatal infectious diseases cannot drive the host population into extinction if the incidence function is upper density-dependent. This finding holds even if a latency period is included and the time from infection to disease-induced death has an arbitrary length distribution. However, if the incidence function is also lower density-dependent, very infectious diseases can lead to a drastic decline of the host population. Further, the final population size after an epidemic outbreak can possibly be substantially affected by the infection-age distribution of the initial infectives if the life expectations of infected individuals are an unbounded function of infection age (time since infection). This is the case for lognormal distributions, which fit data from infection experiments involving tiger salamander larvae and ranavirus better than gamma distributions and Weibull distributions.
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Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Doenças Transmissíveis
/
Epidemias
/
Modelos Biológicos
Tipo de estudo:
Incidence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Animals
/
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Bull Math Biol
Ano de publicação:
2018
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos