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Validation of the breast cancer surveillance consortium model of breast cancer risk.
Tice, Jeffrey A; Bissell, Michael C S; Miglioretti, Diana L; Gard, Charlotte C; Rauscher, Garth H; Dabbous, Firas M; Kerlikowske, Karla.
Afiliação
  • Tice JA; Division of General Internal Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of California, San Francisco, 1545 Divisadero Street, Suite 309, San Francisco, CA, 94143-0320, USA. jeff.tice@ucsf.edu.
  • Bissell MCS; Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
  • Miglioretti DL; Department of Public Health Sciences, University of California, Davis, Davis, CA, USA.
  • Gard CC; Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute, Seattle, WA, USA.
  • Rauscher GH; Department of Economics, Applied Statistics, and International Business, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM, USA.
  • Dabbous FM; Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Illinois at Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA.
  • Kerlikowske K; Advocate Health Care, Downers Grove, IL, USA.
Breast Cancer Res Treat ; 175(2): 519-523, 2019 Jun.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-30796654
PURPOSE: In order to use a breast cancer prediction model in clinical practice to guide screening and prevention, it must be well calibrated and validated in samples independent from the one used for development. We assessed the accuracy of the breast cancer surveillance consortium (BCSC) model in a racially diverse population followed for up to 10 years. METHODS: The BCSC model combines breast density with other risk factors to estimate a woman's 5- and 10-year risk of invasive breast cancer. We validated the model in an independent cohort of 252,997 women in the Chicago area. We evaluated calibration using the ratio of expected to observed (E/O) invasive breast cancers in the cohort and discrimination using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). RESULTS: In an independent cohort of 252,997 women (median age 50 years, 26% non-Hispanic Black), the BCSC model was well calibrated (E/O = 0.94, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.90-0.98), but underestimated the incidence of invasive breast cancer in younger women and in women with low mammographic density. The AUROC was 0.633, similar to that observed in prior validation studies. CONCLUSIONS: The BCSC model is a well-validated risk assessment tool for breast cancer that may be particularly useful when assessing the utility of supplemental screening in women with dense breasts.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Mama / Neoplasias da Mama / Invasividade Neoplásica Tipo de estudo: Etiology_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies / Screening_studies Limite: Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Middle aged Idioma: En Revista: Breast Cancer Res Treat Ano de publicação: 2019 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Estados Unidos

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Assunto principal: Mama / Neoplasias da Mama / Invasividade Neoplásica Tipo de estudo: Etiology_studies / Prognostic_studies / Risk_factors_studies / Screening_studies Limite: Adult / Aged / Female / Humans / Middle aged Idioma: En Revista: Breast Cancer Res Treat Ano de publicação: 2019 Tipo de documento: Article País de afiliação: Estados Unidos