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Can temporal covariation and autocorrelation in demographic rates affect population dynamics in a raptor species?
Fay, Rémi; Michler, Stephanie; Laesser, Jacques; Jeanmonod, Jacques; Schaub, Michael.
Afiliação
  • Fay R; Swiss Ornithological Institute Sempach Switzerland.
  • Michler S; Swiss Ornithological Institute Sempach Switzerland.
  • Laesser J; Swiss Ornithological Institute Sempach Switzerland.
  • Jeanmonod J; Swiss Ornithological Institute Sempach Switzerland.
  • Schaub M; Swiss Ornithological Institute Sempach Switzerland.
Ecol Evol ; 10(4): 1959-1970, 2020 Feb.
Article em En | MEDLINE | ID: mdl-32128129
Theoretical studies suggest that temporal covariation among and temporal autocorrelation within demographic rates are important features of population dynamics. Yet, empirical studies have rarely focused on temporal covariation and autocorrelation limiting our understanding of these patterns in natural populations. This lack of knowledge restrains our ability to fully understand population dynamics and to make reliable population forecasts. In order to fill this gap, we used a long-term monitoring (15 years) of a kestrel Falco tinnunculus population to investigate covariation and autocorrelation in survival and reproduction at the population level and their impact on population dynamics. Using Bayesian joint analyses, we found support for positive covariation between survival and reproduction, but weak autocorrelation through time. This positive covariation was stronger in juveniles compared with adults. As expected for a specialized predator, we found that the reproductive performance was strongly related to an index of vole abundance explaining 86% of the temporal variation. This very strong relationship suggests that the temporally variable prey abundance may drive the positive covariation between survival and reproduction in this kestrel population. Simulations suggested that the observed effect size of covariation could be strong enough to affect population dynamics. More generally, positive covariation and autocorrelation have a destabilizing effect increasing substantially the temporal variability of population size.
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Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: Ecol Evol Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Article

Texto completo: 1 Coleções: 01-internacional Base de dados: MEDLINE Idioma: En Revista: Ecol Evol Ano de publicação: 2020 Tipo de documento: Article