Development of a nomogram for the prediction of periodontal tooth loss using the staging and grading system: A long-term cohort study.
J Clin Periodontol
; 47(11): 1362-1370, 2020 11.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-32886408
ABSTRACT
AIM:
To develop and internally validate a nomogram built on a multivariate prediction model including parameters from the new classification of periodontal diseases, able to predict, at baseline, the occurrence of tooth loss due to periodontal reason (TLP). MATERIALS ANDMETHODS:
A total of 315 individuals diagnosed with periodontal disease and receiving a minimum of one annual supportive periodontal therapy visit were included in the study. Patients were staged and graded based upon baseline data. The population was divided into a development (254 patients) and a validation (61 patients) cohort to allow subsequent temporal validation of the model. According to the TLP at the 10-year follow-up, patients were categorized as "low tooth loss" (≤ 1 TLP) or "high tooth loss" (≥ 2 TLP). Bootstrap internal validation was performed on the whole data set to calculate an optimism-corrected estimate of performance.RESULTS:
The generated nomogram showed a strong predictive capability (AUC = 0.81) and good calibration with an intercept = 0 and slope = 1. These findings were confirmed by internal validation using bootstrapping (average bootstrap AUC = 0.83).CONCLUSIONS:
The clinical implementation of the present nomogram guides the prediction of patients with high risk of disease progression and subsequent tooth loss for personalized care.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Periodontite
/
Perda de Dente
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Incidence_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
J Clin Periodontol
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos