Predicting self-harm within six months after initial presentation to youth mental health services: A machine learning study.
PLoS One
; 15(12): e0243467, 2020.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-33382713
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
A priority for health services is to reduce self-harm in young people. Predicting self-harm is challenging due to their rarity and complexity, however this does not preclude the utility of prediction models to improve decision-making regarding a service response in terms of more detailed assessments and/or intervention. The aim of this study was to predict self-harm within six-months after initial presentation.METHOD:
The study included 1962 young people (12-30 years) presenting to youth mental health services in Australia. Six machine learning algorithms were trained and tested with ten repeats of ten-fold cross-validation. The net benefit of these models were evaluated using decision curve analysis.RESULTS:
Out of 1962 young people, 320 (16%) engaged in self-harm in the six months after first assessment and 1642 (84%) did not. The top 25% of young people as ranked by mean predicted probability accounted for 51.6% - 56.2% of all who engaged in self-harm. By the top 50%, this increased to 82.1%-84.4%. Models demonstrated fair overall prediction (AUROCs; 0.744-0.755) and calibration which indicates that predicted probabilities were close to the true probabilities (brier scores; 0.185-0.196). The net benefit of these models were positive and superior to the 'treat everyone' strategy. The strongest predictors were (in ranked order); a history of self-harm, age, social and occupational functioning, sex, bipolar disorder, psychosis-like experiences, treatment with antipsychotics, and a history of suicide ideation.CONCLUSION:
Prediction models for self-harm may have utility to identify a large sub population who would benefit from further assessment and targeted (low intensity) interventions. Such models could enhance health service approaches to identify and reduce self-harm, a considerable source of distress, morbidity, ongoing health care utilisation and mortality.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Comportamento Autodestrutivo
/
Aprendizado de Máquina
/
Serviços de Saúde Mental
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Child
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
Idioma:
En
Revista:
PLoS One
Assunto da revista:
CIENCIA
/
MEDICINA
Ano de publicação:
2020
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Austrália