A Novel Clinical Nomogram to Predict Transient Symptomatic Associated with Infarction: The ABCD3-SLOPE Score.

ABSTRACT

BACKGROUND: It is hard to differentiate transient symptoms associated with infarction (TSI) from transient ischemic stroke (TIA) without MRI in the early onset. However, they have distinct clinical outcomes and respond differently to therapeutics. Therefore, we aimed to develop a risk prediction model based on the clinical features to identify TSI. METHODS: We enrolled 230 consecutive patients with transient neurologic deficit in the Department of Neurology, Tongji University Affiliated Tenth People's Hospital from March 2014 to October 2019. All the patients were assigned into TIA group (DWI-negative) or TSI group (DWI-positive) based on MRI conducted within five days of onset. We summarized the clinical characteristics of TSI by univariate and multivariate analyses. And then, we developed and validated a nomogram to identify TSI by the logistic regression equation. RESULTS: Of the 230 patients, 41.3% were diagnosed with TSI. According to the multivariate analysis, four independent risk factors, including smoking history, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, brain natriuretic peptide precursor, and ABCD3 score, were incorporated into a nomogram. We developed a predictive model named ABCD3-SLOPE. The calibration curve showed good agreement between nomogram prediction and observation. The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram for TSI prediction was 0.77 (95% confidence interval, 0.70-0.83), and it was well-calibrated. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking history, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, brain natriuretic peptide precursor, and ABCD3 score were reliable risk factors for TSI. ABCD3-SLOPE was a potential tool to quantify the likelihood of TSI.