Model-informed COVID-19 exit strategy with projections of SARS-CoV-2 infections generated by variants in the Republic of Korea.
BMC Public Health
; 22(1): 2098, 2022 11 17.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36384532
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
With the prompt administration of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines, highly vaccinated countries have begun to lift their stringent control measures. However, considering the spread of highly transmissible new variants, resuming socio-economic activities may lead to the resurgence of incidence, particularly in nations with a low proportion of individuals who have natural immunity. Here, we aimed to quantitatively assess an optimal COVID-19 exit strategy in the Republic of Korea, where only a small number of cumulative incidences have been recorded as of September 2021, comparing epidemiological outcomes via scenario analysis.METHODS:
A discrete-time deterministic compartmental model structured by age group was used, accounting for the variant-specific transmission dynamics and the currently planned nationwide vaccination. All parameters were calibrated using comprehensive empirical data obtained from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency.RESULTS:
Our projection suggests that tapering the level of social distancing countermeasures to the minimum level from November 2021 can efficiently suppress a resurgence of incidence given the currently planned nationwide vaccine roll-out. In addition, considering the spread of the Delta variant, our model suggested that gradual easing of countermeasures for more than 4 months can efficiently withstand the prevalence of severe COVID-19 cases until the end of 2022.CONCLUSIONS:
Our model-based projections provide evidence-based guidance for an exit strategy that allows society to resume normal life while sustaining the suppression of the COVID-19 epidemic in countries where the spread of COVID-19 has been well controlled.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Epidemias
/
COVID-19
Tipo de estudo:
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
BMC Public Health
Assunto da revista:
SAUDE PUBLICA
Ano de publicação:
2022
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Japão