Modeling social, economic, and health perspectives for optimal pandemic policy decision-making.
Socioecon Plann Sci
; 86: 101472, 2023 Apr.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36438929
ABSTRACT
While different control strategies in the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic have helped decrease the number of infections, these strategies have had an adverse economic impact on businesses. Therefore, optimal timing and scale of closure and reopening strategies are required to prevent both different waves of the pandemic and the negative economic impact of control strategies. This paper proposes a novel multi-objective mixed-integer linear programming (MOMILP) formulation, which results in the optimal timing of closure and reopening of states and industries in each state to mitigate the economic and epidemiological impact of a pandemic. The three objectives being pursued include (i) the epidemiological impact, (ii) the economic impact on the local businesses, and (iii) the economic impact on the trades between industries. The proposed model is implemented on a dataset that includes 11 states, the District of Columbia, and 19 industries in the US. The solved by augmented ε-constraint approach is used to solve the multi-objective model, and a final strategy is selected from the set of Pareto-optimal solutions based on the least cubic distance of the solution from the optimal value of each objective. The Pareto-optimal solutions suggest that for any control decision (state and industry closure or reopening), the economic impact and the epidemiological impact change in the opposite direction, and it is more effective to close most states while keeping the majority of industries open during the planning horizon.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Tipo de estudo:
Health_economic_evaluation
/
Prognostic_studies
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Socioecon Plann Sci
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Estados Unidos