Estimating disease incidence rates and transition probabilities in elderly patients using multi-state models: a case study in fragility fracture using a Bayesian approach.
BMC Med Res Methodol
; 23(1): 40, 2023 02 14.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36788479
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Multi-state models are complex stochastic models which focus on pathways defined by the temporal and sequential occurrence of numerous events of interest. In particular, the so-called illness-death models are especially useful for studying probabilities associated to diseases whose occurrence competes with other possible diseases, health conditions or death. They can be seen as a generalization of the competing risks models, which are widely used to estimate disease-incidences among populations with a high risk of death, such as elderly or cancer patients. The main advantage of the aforementioned illness-death models is that they allow the treatment of scenarios with non-terminal competing events that may occur sequentially, which competing risks models fail to do.METHODS:
We propose an illness-death model using Cox proportional hazards models with Weibull baseline hazard functions, and applied the model to a study of recurrent hip fracture. Data came from the PREV2FO cohort and included 34491 patients aged 65 years and older who were discharged alive after a hospitalization due to an osteoporotic hip fracture between 2008-2015. We used a Bayesian approach to approximate the posterior distribution of each parameter of the model, and thus cumulative incidences and transition probabilities. We also compared these results with a competing risks specification.RESULTS:
Posterior transition probabilities showed higher probabilities of death for men and increasing with age. Women were more likely to refracture as well as less likely to die after it. Free-event time was shown to reduce the probability of death. Estimations from the illness-death and the competing risks models were identical for those common transitions although the illness-death model provided additional information from the transition from refracture to death.CONCLUSIONS:
We illustrated how multi-state models, in particular illness-death models, may be especially useful when dealing with survival scenarios which include multiple events, with competing diseases or when death is an unavoidable event to consider. Illness-death models via transition probabilities provide additional information of transitions from non-terminal health conditions to absorbing states such as death, what implies a deeper understanding of the real-world problem involved compared to competing risks models.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Fraturas do Quadril
Tipo de estudo:
Etiology_studies
/
Incidence_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Aged
/
Female
/
Humans
/
Male
Idioma:
En
Revista:
BMC Med Res Methodol
Assunto da revista:
MEDICINA
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Espanha