Modeling Respiratory Syncytial Virus Adult Vaccination in the United States With a Dynamic Transmission Model.
Clin Infect Dis
; 77(3): 480-489, 2023 08 14.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-36949605
ABSTRACT
BACKGROUND:
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is shown to cause substantial morbidity, hospitalization, and mortality in infants and older adults. Population-level modeling of RSV allows to estimate the full burden of disease and the potential epidemiological impact of novel prophylactics.METHODS:
We modeled the RSV epidemiology in the United States across all ages using a deterministic compartmental transmission model. Population-level symptomatic RSV acute respiratory tract infection (ARI) cases were projected across different natural history scenarios with and without vaccination of adults aged ≥60 years. The impact of vaccine efficacy against ARIs, infectiousness and vaccine coverage on ARI incidence were assessed. The impact on medical attendance, hospitalization, complications, death, and other outcomes was also derived.RESULTS:
Without a vaccine, we project 17.5-22.6 million symptomatic RSV ARI cases annually in adults aged ≥18 years in the US, with 3.6-4.8 million/year occurring in adults aged ≥60 years. Modeling indicates that up to 2.0 million symptomatic RSV-ARI cases could be prevented annually in ≥60-year-olds with a hypothetical vaccine (70% vaccine efficacy against symptomatic ARI and 60% vaccine coverage) and that up to 0.69 million/year could be prevented in the nonvaccinated population, assuming 50% vaccine impact on infectiousness.CONCLUSIONS:
The model provides estimated burden of RSV in the US across all age groups, with substantial burden projected specifically in older adults. Vaccination of adults aged ≥60 years could significantly reduce the burden of disease in this population, with additional indirect effect in adults aged <60 years due to reduced transmissibility.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Infecções Respiratórias
/
Vírus Sincicial Respiratório Humano
/
Infecções por Vírus Respiratório Sincicial
/
Vacinas contra Vírus Sincicial Respiratório
Tipo de estudo:
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Aged
/
Humans
/
Middle aged
País/Região como assunto:
America do norte
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Clin Infect Dis
Assunto da revista:
DOENCAS TRANSMISSIVEIS
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Bélgica