Validation of the international IgA nephropathy prediction tool in a French cohort beyond 10 years after diagnosis.
Nephrol Dial Transplant
; 38(10): 2257-2265, 2023 09 29.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-37316441
ABSTRACT
INTRODUCTION:
The International IgA Nephropathy Network developed a tool (IINN-PT) for predicting the risk of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a 50% decline in the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). We aimed to validate this tool in a French cohort with longer follow-up than previously published validation studies.METHODS:
The predicted survival of patients with biopsy-proven immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) from the Saint Etienne University Hospital cohort was computed with IINN-PT models with or without ethnicity. The primary outcome was the occurrence of either ESRD or a 50% decline in eGFR. The models' performances were evaluated through c-statistics, discrimination and calibration analysis.RESULTS:
There were 473 patients with biopsy-proven IgAN, with a median follow-up of 12.4 years. Models with and without ethnicity showed areas under the curve (95% confidence interval) of 0.817 (0.765; 0.869) and 0.833 (0.791; 0.875) and R2D of 0.28 and 0.29, respectively, and an excellent discrimination of groups of increasing predicted risk (P < .001). The calibration analysis was good for both models up to 15 years after diagnosis. The model without ethnicity exhibited a mathematical issue of survival function after 15 years.DISCUSSION:
The IINN-PT provided good performances even after 10 years post-biopsy as showed by our study based on a cohort with a longer follow-up than previous cohorts (12.4 versus <6 years). The model without ethnicity exhibited better performances up to 15 years but became aberrant beyond this point due to a mathematical issue affecting the survival function. Our study sheds light on the usefulness of integrating ethnicity as a covariable for prediction of IgAN course.Palavras-chave
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Glomerulonefrite por IGA
/
Falência Renal Crônica
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Etiology_studies
/
Observational_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
/
Risk_factors_studies
Limite:
Humans
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Nephrol Dial Transplant
Assunto da revista:
NEFROLOGIA
/
TRANSPLANTE
Ano de publicação:
2023
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
França