An investigation into the potential for upward range expansion in high-montane species on the roof of the world.

ABSTRACT

Climate warming is occurring in high-mountain areas at a faster rate than the global average. To escape the increasing temperatures, alpine species may shift in distribution upwards, threatening cold-adapted nival plant specialists. However, little is known about the success of seedling emergence and establishment at high altitudes outside the current range, particularly in the highest mountain areas of the Himalayas. We selected four native alpine species occurring around 4000 m a.s.l. and sowed seeds at the natural growing site (GS), at a high elevation site (HS; 5000 m a.s.l.) and at high elevation with soil from the growing site (HS-S) in the Khumbu Valley, north-eastern Nepal. We monitored seedling emergence and establishment for two consecutive years. Seedling emergence and establishment varied between species. Emergence was similar between GS and HS and improved at HS-S. Establishment was low at high elevations with all but one species having high mortality after winter. Seedling emergence of low elevation plants is possible at high elevations in the Everest region, indicating species may be able to shift their distribution range upwards. However, successful establishment may be limited by the soil and high winter mortality at high elevations, although not in all species. Climate warming will potentially lead to upward migration of some Himalayan plant species, leading to altered community composition in high-mountain areas.