The impact of Russo-Ukrainian war, COVID-19, and oil prices on global food security.
Heliyon
; 10(8): e29279, 2024 Apr 30.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-38638981
ABSTRACT
Context Light of recent global upheavals, including volatile oil prices, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, and the COVID-19 pandemic this study delves into their profound impact on the import and export dynamics of global foodstuffs. With rising staple food prices reminiscent of the 2010-2011 global food crisis, understanding these shifts comprehensively is imperative. Objective:
Our objective is to evaluate this impact by examining six independent variables (year, month, Brent crude oil, COVID-19, the Russo-Ukrainian conflict) alongside six food indicators as dependent variables. Employing Pearson's correlation, linear regression, and seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages (SARIMA), we scrutinize intricate relationships among these variables. Results andconclusions:
Our findings reveal varying degrees of association, notably highlighting a robust correlation between Brent crude oil and food indicators. Linear regression analysis suggests a positive influence of the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, Brent oil on food price indices, and COVID-19. Furthermore, integrating SARIMA enhances predictive accuracy, offering insights into future projections.Significance:
Finally, this research has a significant role in providing a valuable analysis into the intricate dynamics of global food pricing, informing decision-making amidst global challenges and bridging critical gaps in prior research on forecasting food price indices.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Heliyon
Ano de publicação:
2024
Tipo de documento:
Article
País de afiliação:
Jordânia