Use of an epidemiological model for estimating the effectiveness of tuberculosis control measures. Sensitivity of the effectiveness of tuberculosis control measures to the social time preference.
Bull World Health Organ
; 43(1): 1-16, 1970.
Article
em En
| MEDLINE
| ID: mdl-5312319
ABSTRACT
Different combinations of coverage levels of BCG vaccination and of case-finding and treatment may achieve the same problem reduction in epidemiological terms. But the same problem reduction, in man-years of tuberculosis, may be valued differently in social terms.A social-time-preference parameter, of the form 1/(1+r)(t), is relevant to this evaluation and the level of r is critical for policy decision. The present paper studies the sensitivity of the effectiveness of BCG vaccination and of case-finding and treatment to the level of r, and the epidemiological mechanism underlying such sensitivity. A high value of r can be visualized as corresponding to a close planning horizon, a lower value of r to a more distant one. At any level of epidemiological effectiveness, a planner with a high value of r would favour case-finding and treatment, and a planner with a low value of r would tend to emphasize BCG vaccination. This influence of the social-time-preference parameter on the planner's decision is found to depend on the discounting effect of the parameter on the one hand, and on the different age- and time-patterns of the preventive effect of the major control measures, on the other.
Texto completo:
1
Coleções:
01-internacional
Base de dados:
MEDLINE
Assunto principal:
Tuberculose
/
Modelos Teóricos
Tipo de estudo:
Diagnostic_studies
/
Prognostic_studies
Limite:
Adolescent
/
Adult
/
Aged
/
Child
/
Child, preschool
/
Humans
/
Middle aged
Idioma:
En
Revista:
Bull World Health Organ
Ano de publicação:
1970
Tipo de documento:
Article