Combined use of the CLivD score and FIB-4 for prediction of liver-related outcomes in the population.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: A need exists for effective and practical tools to identify individuals at increased risk of liver-related outcomes (LROs) within the general population. APPROACH AND RESULTS: We externally validated the chronic liver disease (CLivD) score for LROs in the UK Biobank cohort. We also investigated the sequential combined use of CLivD and fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) scores. Our analysis included 369,832 adults without baseline liver disease and with available data for CLivD and FIB-4 computation. LROs reflecting compensated or decompensated liver cirrhosis or HCC were ascertained through linkages with electronic health care registries. Discriminatory performance and cumulative incidence were evaluated with competing-risk methodologies. Over a 10-year follow-up, time-dependent AUC values for LRO prediction were 0.80 for CLivD lab (including gamma-glutamyltransferase), 0.72 for CLivD non-lab (excluding laboratory values), and 0.75 for FIB-4. CLivD lab demonstrated AUC values exceeding 0.85 for liver-related death and severe alcohol-associated liver outcomes. The predictive performance of FIB-4 increased with rising CLivD scores; 10-year FIB-4 AUC values ranged from 0.60 within the minimal-risk CLivD subgroup to 0.81 within the high-risk CLivD subgroup. Moreover, in the minimal-risk CLivD subgroup, the cumulative incidence of LRO varied from 0.05% to 0.3% across low-to-high FIB-4 strata. In contrast, within the high-risk CLivD subgroup, the corresponding incidence ranged from 1.7% to 21.1% (up to 33% in individuals with FIB-4 >3.25). CONCLUSIONS: The CLivD score is a valid tool for LRO risk assessment and improves the predictive performance of FIB-4. The combined use of CLivD and FIB-4 identified a subgroup where 1 in 3 individuals developed LROs within 10 years.

Alcohol-associated liver disease-Global epidemiology.

Alcohol-associated liver disease (ALD), as highlighted in this narrative review, is a major public health concern, increasingly impacting global disease burden and premature mortality. In 2019, ALD accounted for the loss of 11 million life-years worldwide. The rising number of deaths and disability-adjusted life-years attributed to ALD, particularly pronounced in the United States, are alarming. Projections suggest that the economic impact of ALD, as seen in the United States, could potentially double by 2040. ALD is increasingly prevalent among younger adults (20-45 y) and has become the leading cause of liver transplantation in both United States and Europe. During the COVID-19 pandemic, the existing trend was further amplified as high-risk drinking patterns coincided with a rise in hospital admissions for alcohol-associated hepatitis and increased ALD-related mortality. The prevalence of ALD is estimated at 3.5% in the general population, 26.0% among hazardous drinkers, and 55.1% among those with alcohol use disorders. Alarmingly, 5-year mortality rates for patients with ALD exceed 50%, with even higher rates in more advanced disease stages. Methodological challenges, such as underreporting, diagnostic difficulties, and variability in registry data quality, complicate the accurate assessment of the impact of ALD. Additionally, the contribution of alcohol to the progression of other liver diseases is often under acknowledged in health care registries, leading to a significant underestimation of its broader implications for liver health. Addressing the growing ALD concern requires robust public health initiatives, heightened awareness, refined diagnostic techniques, and comprehensive epidemiological studies. These measures are vital to tackle the increasing prevalence of ALD and mitigate its extensive impact on individuals and health care systems.

Cyclosporine vs. tacrolimus after liver transplantation for primary sclerosing cholangitis - a propensity score-matched intention-to-treat analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: There is controversy regarding the optimal calcineurin inhibitor type after liver transplant(ation) (LT) for primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). We compared tacrolimus with cyclosporine in a propensity score-matched intention-to-treat analysis based on registries representing nearly all LTs in Europe and the US. METHODS: From the European Liver Transplant Registry (ELTR) and Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (SRTR), we included adult patients with PSC undergoing a primary LT between 2000-2020. Patients initially treated with cyclosporine were propensity score-matched 1:3 with those initially treated with tacrolimus. The primary outcomes were patient and graft survival rates. RESULTS: The propensity score-matched sample comprised 399 cyclosporine-treated and 1,197 tacrolimus-treated patients with PSC. During a median follow-up of 7.4 years (IQR 2.3-12.8, 12,579.2 person-years), there were 480 deaths and 231 re-LTs. The initial tacrolimus treatment was superior to cyclosporine in terms of patient and graft survival, with 10-year patient survival estimates of 72.8% for tacrolimus and 65.2% for cyclosporine (p <0.001) and 10-year graft survival estimates of 62.4% and 53.8% (p <0.001), respectively. These findings were consistent in the subgroups according to age, sex, registry (ELTR vs. SRTR), time period of LT, MELD score, and diabetes status. The acute rejection rates were similar between groups. In the multivariable Cox regression analysis, tacrolimus (hazard ratio 0.72, p <0.001) and mycophenolate use (hazard ratio 0.82, p = 0.03) were associated with a reduced risk of graft loss or death, whereas steroid use was not significant. CONCLUSIONS: Tacrolimus is associated with better patient and graft survival rates than cyclosporine and should be the standard calcineurin inhibitor used after LT for patients with PSC. IMPACT AND IMPLICATIONS: The optimal calcineurin inhibitor to use after liver transplantation in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis has yet to be firmly established. Since randomized trials with long follow-up are unlikely to be performed, multicontinental long-term registry data are essential in informing clinical practices. Our study supports the practice of using tacrolimus instead of cyclosporine in the initial immunosuppressive regimen after liver transplantation for patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis. The retrospective registry-based design is a limitation.

Protocol liver biopsy predicts graft survival after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND: The use of protocol liver biopsy to monitor liver allograft status remains controversial. There is limited data from modern transplantation populations that includes protocol biopsies to evaluate its value in predicting clinical outcomes. METHODS: All protocol liver biopsies were identified from 875 patients who underwent liver transplantation at Helsinki University Hospital between 2000 and 2019. Each histologic component was analyzed for its ability to predict long-term outcomes, especially graft survival. We determined the frequency of significant biopsy findings based on the Banff working group definition. Liver function tests (LFTs) and clinical markers were evaluated for their ability to predict significant biopsy findings. RESULTS: In total, 867 protocol liver biopsies were analyzed. Significant findings were identified in 20.1% of the biopsies. In the first protocol biopsy, steatohepatitis (hazard ratio [HR] 3.504, p = .03) and moderate or severe congestion (HR 3.338, p = .04) predicted graft loss. The presence of cholangitis (HR 2.563, p = .04), necrosis (HR 7.635, p < .001), mild congestion (HR 4.291, p = .009), and significant biopsy finding (HR 2.540, p = .02) predicted inferior death-censored graft survival. While the degree of elevation of LFTs was positively associated with significant biopsy findings, the discrimination was poor (AUC .572-.622). Combined LFTs and clinical risk factors remained suboptimal for discriminating significant biopsy findings (AUC .696). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings support the use of protocol liver biopsies after liver transplantation since they frequently revealed changes associated with long-term outcomes, even when LFTs were normal.

Risk and prediction of kidney failure early after liver transplantation.

BACKGROUND: Kidney disease is common after liver transplantation (LT), but postoperative kidney failure is difficult to predict. Current guidelines recommend simultaneous liver-kidney transplantation (SLKT) in patients with pre-LT estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) below 30-40 mL/min, which might be too liberal. The aim of this study was to evaluate the risk of kidney failure after LT. We also assessed the predictive ability of pretransplantation eGFR using various equations. METHODS: This single-center study included patients undergoing primary LT 2006-2020. Patients undergoing simultaneous liver-kidney transplantations or on dialysis before LT were analysed separately. We calculated 5 different eGFR equations measured just before LT and assessed their predictive ability using Kaplan-Meier cumulative incidence estimates. RESULTS: Among 556 LT patients with a median follow-up of 5.0 years (IQR 2.0-8.5), 20 developed kidney failure during follow-up, 7 of them within 1-year post LT. Six of these 7 suffered from major perioperative complications. Depending on the eGFR equation used, the incidence of kidney failure within 1-year was 3.9-6.7% at pre-LT eGFR-values <30 mL/min, 1.2-3.1% at eGFR 30-60 mL/min, and 0.6-0.9% at eGFR >60 mL/min. CONCLUSIONS: Kidney failure within 1-year post-LT could not be reliably predicted by pre-LT eGFR. However, kidney failure was uncommon even in patients with severely reduced pre-LT glomerular filtration rate (eGFR <30 mL/min), and extremely rare in patients unaffected by major perioperative complications. Our data prompts further consideration regarding the guidelines for SLKT in patients with a reduced preoperative eGFR.

Serum ferritin level is associated with liver fibrosis and incident liver-related outcomes independent of HFE genotype in the general population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hyperferritinemia reflects iron accumulation in the body and has been associated with metabolic disturbances and alcohol use, and is also a common finding in individuals diagnosed with liver disease. The major genetic regulator of iron metabolism is the HFE gene. METHODS: The aim of this this study was to investigate the association between serum ferritin and liver fibrosis using the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test, and the association between ferritin and liver-related outcomes in a Finnish population-based cohort of 6194 individuals (45% male, mean [± standard deviation] age, 52.9 ± 14.9 years; body mass index 26.9 ± 4.7 kg/m2). The effects of HFE variants on these associations were also evaluated. RESULTS: Serum ferritin levels were significantly associated with liver fibrosis, as estimated by enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test in weighted linear regression analysis. Serum ferritin was significantly associated with both all liver-related outcomes (n = 92) and severe liver-related outcomes (n = 54) in weighted Cox regression analysis (hazard ratio [HR] per 1 SD, 1.11 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02-1.21]; p = 0.012 and HR 1.11 [95% CI 1.02-1.21]; p = 0.013, respectively). However, there was association neither between HFE risk variants and ELF test nor between HFE risk variants and liver-related outcomes. CONCLUSION: Serum ferritin levels were associated with liver fibrosis and incident liver disease, independent of HFE genotype in the general population. Furthermore, data demonstrated that metabolic disturbances and alcohol use were major risk factors for hyperferritinemia.

Alcohol consumption and metabolic syndrome: Clinical and epidemiological impact on liver disease.

Alcohol use and metabolic syndrome are highly prevalent in the population and frequently co-exist. Both are implicated in a large range of health problems, including chronic liver disease, hepatocellular carcinoma, and liver-related outcomes (i.e. decompensation or liver transplantation). Studies have yielded mixed results regarding the effects of mild-moderate alcohol consumption on the risk of metabolic syndrome and fatty liver disease, possibly due to methodological differences. The few available prospective studies have indicated that mild-moderate alcohol use is associated with an increase in liver-related outcomes. This conclusion was substantiated by systems biology analyses suggesting that alcohol and metabolic syndrome may play a similar role in fatty liver disease, potentiating an already existing dysregulation of common vital homeostatic pathways. Alcohol and metabolic factors are independently and jointly associated with liver-related outcomes. Indeed, metabolic syndrome increases the risk of liver-related outcomes, regardless of alcohol intake. Moreover, the components of metabolic syndrome appear to have additive effects when it comes to the risk of liver-related outcomes. A number of population studies have implied that measures of central/abdominal obesity, such as the waist-to-hip ratio, can predict liver-related outcomes more accurately than BMI, including in individuals who consume harmful quantities of alcohol. Many studies even point to synergistic interactions between harmful alcohol use and many metabolic components. This accumulating evidence showing independent, combined, and modifying effects of alcohol and metabolic factors on the onset and progression of chronic liver disease highlights the multifactorial background of liver disease in the population. The available evidence suggests that more holistic approaches could be useful for risk prediction, diagnostics and treatment planning.

Comprehensive Complication Index to Monitor Morbidity and Mortality After Liver Transplantation in Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis.

OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to investigate the short-term and long-term morbidity after liver transplantation (LTx) in patients with primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC). BACKGROUND: PSC is a common indication for LTx in Scandinavia. Recently, research has focused on long-term survival and morbidity. The Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI) precisely describes postsurgical complications, by considering both number and severity. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Two patient groups were compared: those with classical PSC symptoms (n=148) and those with increased risk of cholangiocarcinoma (n=51, premalignant group). Two CCI scores were calculated, at 1-year post-LTx and a cumulative overall score at the latest follow-up. In addition, we investigated factors potentially related to high CCI. RESULTS: The 1-year median CCI were 29.6 and 26.2 in the classical and premalignant groups, respectively ( P =0.308). The median overall CCI were 43.2 and 46.8 ( P =0.765), respectively. Patient survival was significantly lower in patients with 1-year CCI>42. The most common complications associated with low survival were cholangitis, infections, and hypertension. One-year and overall CCI were similar between sexes and different types of biliary anastomosis. Patients with pre-LTx Model for End-stage Liver Disease scores >20 had higher 1-year and overall CCI (36.2 and 52.6, respectively) than those with lower Model for End-stage Liver Disease scores. Both low (<22) and high (>25 kg/m 2 ) body mass indices were associated with high overall 1-year and overall CCI (50.9 and 41.8, respectively), but median body mass indices were associated with significantly lower 1-year and overall CCI (38.4, P =0.023). CONCLUSIONS: The previously determined 1-year CCI cutoff of 42 could significantly predict survival post-LTx. Mortality and morbidity were not significantly different between the PSC groups analyzed.

Three-fold Increased Risk of Death in Budd-Chiari Syndrome Compared to Matched Controls: A Population-based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Patients with Budd-Chiari syndrome (BCS) have an elevated risk of overall and liver-specific mortality, but this has not been quantified on a population level nor compared against a matched general population cohort. METHODS: We identified all patients in Sweden with a recorded diagnosis of BCS in the Swedish National Patient Register between 1987 and 2016. Patients with BCS were matched for age, sex, and municipality at baseline with up to 10 reference individuals from the general population. Data on cause-specific mortality were obtained from the Causes of Death Register. A Cox regression model was performed to investigate rates of all-cause and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: A total of 478 patients with BCS were matched with 4603 reference individuals. Of the patients with BCS, 43% were men, the median age was 58 years, 39% had a recorded diagnosis of a precipitating risk factor, and 13% had underlying liver disease. During a follow-up of up to 29 years, 243 (51%) of the patients with BCS died compared with 1346 (29%) of the reference individuals. Overall mortality was 70 per 1000 person-years in patients with BCS compared with 28 per 1000 person-years in reference individuals, translating into an adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) of 3.1 (95% confidence interval [CI], 2.6-3.6). Although liver-related mortality was particularly high (aHR, 47.6; 95% CI, 16.5-137.4), liver disease accounted for only 10% of deaths in BCS. The most common cause of death was cardiovascular disease (aHR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.7-2.9). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with BCS in Sweden had a 3-fold higher risk of death compared with general population reference individuals. Although mortality from liver diseases was high in relative terms, most patients died from cardiovascular causes.

Abdominal obesity and alcohol use modify the impact of genetic risk for incident advanced liver disease in the general population.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Genetic variants, abdominal obesity and alcohol use are risk factors for incident liver disease (ILD). We aimed to study whether variants either alone or when aggregated into genetic risk scores (GRSs) associate with ILD, and whether waist-hip ratio (WHR) or alcohol use interacts with this risk. METHODS: Our study included 33 770 persons (mean age 50 years, 47% men) who participated in health-examination surveys (FINRISK 1992-2012 or Health 2000) with data on alcohol use, WHR and 63 genotypes associated with liver disease. Data were linked with national health registers for liver-related outcomes (hospitalizations, malignancies and death). Exclusions were baseline clinical liver disease. Mean follow-up time was 12.2 years. Cox regression analyses between variants and ILD were adjusted for age, sex and BMI. RESULTS: Variants in PNPLA3, IFNL4, TM6SF2, FDFT1, PPP1R3B, SERPINA1 and HSD17B13 were associated with ILD. GRSs calculated from these variants were not associated with WHR or alcohol use, but were exponentially associated with ILD (up to 25-fold higher risk in high versus low score). The risk of ILD in individuals with high GRS and high WHR or alcohol use compared with those with none of these risk factors was increased by up to 90-fold. GRSs provided new prognostic information particularly in individuals with high WHR. CONCLUSIONS: The effect of multiple genetic variants on the risk of ILD is potentiated by abdominal obesity and alcohol use. Simple GRSs may help to identify individuals with adverse lifestyle who are at a particularly high risk of ILD.

Combined use of the ELF test and CLivD score improves prediction of liver-related outcomes in the general population.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Effective and feasible population screening strategies are needed for the early detection of individuals at high risk of future severe liver-related outcomes. We evaluated the predictive performance of the combination of liver fibrosis assessment, phenotype profile, and genetic risk. METHODS: Data from 5795 adults attending the Finnish Health 2000 Survey were linked with healthcare registers for liver-related outcomes (hospitalization, hepatocellular cancer, and death). Fibrosis was assessed using the enhanced liver fibrosis (ELF) test, phenotype profile by the chronic liver disease (CLivD) risk score, and genetic risk by a validated Polygenic Risk Score (PRS-5). Predictive performance was assessed by competing-risk analyses. RESULTS: During a median 13-year follow-up, 64 liver-related outcome events were recorded. ELF, CLivD score, and PRS-5 were independently associated with liver-related outcomes. The absolute 10-year risk of liver-related outcomes at an ELF value of 11.3 ranged from 0.3% to 33% depending on the CLivD score. The CLivD score added 51% of new predictive information to the ELF test and improved areas under the curve (AUCs) from 0.91, 0.81, and 0.71 for ELF alone to 0.95, 0.85, and 0.80, respectively, for ELF combined with the CLivD score at 1, 5, and 10 years. The greatest improvement was for 10-year predictions (delta-AUC 0.097, p < .0001). Adding PRS-5 did not significantly increase predictive performance. Findings were consistent in individuals with obesity, diabetes, or alcohol risk use, and regardless of whether gamma-glutamyltransferase was used in the CLivD score. CONCLUSION: A combination of ELF and CLivD score predicts liver-related outcomes significantly better than the ELF test alone.

Persistent organic pollutants associate with liver disease in a Finnish general population sample.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) have multiple adverse effects on human health. Recent studies show a possible association with liver disease, but population-based data are scarce. In this population-based study, we studied the associations between POPs and biomarkers of liver disease and incident liver disease. METHODS: This study consisted of 2789 adults that participated in the environmental toxin subset of the Finnish health-examination survey, FINRISK 2007. Toxins were measured from serum samples, and standard liver tests and dynamic aspartate aminotransferase-alanine aminotransferase ratio (dAAR) were measured as biomarkers of liver function. Associations between POPs and the biomarkers were then analysed using linear regression. Associations between POPs and incident liver disease (n = 36) were analysed by Cox regression. RESULTS: Organochlorine pesticides (OCPs), polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) and several perfluorinated alkyl substances exhibited statistically significant positive associations with several biomarkers of liver injury (betacoefficient per SD 0.04-0.14, p < 0.05). These associations were stronger in subgroups of individuals with obesity or non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. OCPs, PCBs and perfluoro-octanoic acid also had significant positive associations with dAAR, which can be used to predict risk of incident severe liver outcomes (beta coefficient per SD 0.05-0.08, p < 0.05). OCPs and PCBs were also significantly and positively associated with incident liver disease (hazard ratio per SD 1.82 95% CI 1.21-2.73, p < 0.01 and hazard ratio per SD 1.69, 95% CI 1.07-2.68, p < 0.05 respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Several POPs show positive associations with markers of liver injury and incident liver disease, suggesting that environmental toxins are important risk factors for chronic liver disease.

Changes over time in the Chronic Liver Disease risk score predict liver-related outcomes: longitudinal analysis of the Whitehall II study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The Chronic Liver Disease (CLivD) risk score was recently shown to predict future advanced liver disease in the general population. We here investigated the impact of individual CLivD-score changes over time. METHODS: Participants of both phase 3 (baseline, 1991-1994) and phase 5 (follow-up, 1997-1999) examinations of the Whitehall II study were followed for liver-related outcomes (hospitalization, cancer, death) until December 2019 through linkage with electronic healthcare registers. The CLivD score, its modifiable components (alcohol use, waist-hip ratio [WHR], diabetes, and smoking), and their individual changes were studied. RESULTS: Among 6590 adults (mean age 50 years, 30% women) with a median 21-year follow-up, there were 80 liver outcomes. A rise in the CLivD score between baseline and follow-up examinations significantly increased the risk for liver-related outcomes (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 1.62, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-2.60), more so in subjects with baseline intermediate-high CLivD scores (HR 2.4 for a CLivD-change) compared to minimal-low CLivD scores. Adverse changes over time in alcohol use and WHR, and new-onset diabetes also predicted liver outcomes. In contrast to WHR, changes in body weight (kg) showed a U-shaped association with liver outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: A change in the CLivD score over time corresponds to a true change in the risk for liver-related outcomes, suggesting the usefulness of the CLivD score for assessing response to liver-directed lifestyle interventions. Changes in WHR predicted liver outcomes better than changes in body weight or waist circumference, independent of body mass index, supporting the WHR in assessing risk for future liver disease.

Gamma-glutamyltransferase predicts macrovesicular liver graft steatosis - an analysis of discarded liver allografts in Finland.

OBJECTIVE: Liver-transplantation activity is limited by the shortage of grafts. Donor-liver macrovesicular steatosis predisposes to ischemia-reperfusion injury and is associated with reduced graft survival. The increasing prevalence of fatty-liver disease underlines the importance of identifying macrovesicular steatosis in potential donor livers. We analyzed liver grafts discarded for transplantation, and particularly the role of gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT) in predicting graft steatosis. METHODS: One-hundred sixty rejected cadaveric-donor liver grafts were studied. Donor selection was based on clinical data, and macroscopic graft inspection. Discarded grafts were biopsied at procurement of non-liver organs. RESULTS: The most common reasons for discarding the graft were abnormal liver tests, ultrasound-verified steatosis and history of harmful alcohol use. GGT correlated moderately with macrovesicular steatosis (r = 0.52, p < 0.001), but poorly with microvesicular steatosis (r = 0.36, p < 0.001). Increased correlation between GGT and macrovesicular steatosis was observed among alcohol abusers (r = 0.67, p < 0.001). Area under the curve (AUC) of GGT for predicting >30% macrovesicular steatosis was 0.79 (95% CI 0.71-0.88), and for >60% steatosis, 0.79 (95% CI 0.68-0.90). The optimal GGT-cut off for detecting >30% and >60% macrovesicular steatosis were, respectively, 66 U/L (sensitivity 76% and specificity 68%) and 142 U/L (sensitivity 66% and specificity 83%). Among alcohol users, a GGT value >90 U/L showed 100% sensitivity for >60% macrovesicular steatosis. AUC for GGT in predicting fibrosis Stages 2-4 was 0.82 (95% CI 0.71-0.92, p < 0.001, optimal cut off 68, sensitivity 92%, specificity 61%). CONCLUSIONS: Abnormal liver values, steatosis and harmful alcohol use were the main reasons for discarding liver-graft offers in Finland. GGT proved useful in predicting moderate and severe liver graft macrovesicular steatosis.

Association Between Pre-Transplant Oral Health and Post-Liver Transplant Complications.

Oral disease is linked with systemic inflammation and various systemic conditions, including chronic liver disease. Liver transplantation (LT) candidates often need dental infection focus eradication, and after LT, there is high risk of many inflammation-related complications. We studied whether pre-LT dental status is associated with the occurrence of post-LT complications. This study included 225 adult LT recipients whose teeth were examined and treated before LT, and 40 adult LT recipients who did not have pre-LT dental data available. Data on post-LT complications were collected from the national liver transplant registry and followed up until the end of July 2020. Worse pre-LT dental status was associated with a higher risk of acute rejection post-LT compared to patients with good dental status. Worse dental status was also associated with higher 1-year-post-LT ALT levels and lower albumin levels. In conclusion, poor pre-LT oral health seems to associate with an increased risk of post-LT acute rejection and with elevated ALT levels and decreased albumin levels, suggesting an effect on post-LT liver health. Therefore, prevention and treatment of oral and dental diseases should be promoted early in the course of liver disease.

Cancer risk and mortality after solid organ transplantation: A population-based 30-year cohort study in Finland.

Cancer is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality after solid organ transplantation (SOT) and related to lifelong immunosuppression. This retrospective registry study assessed for the first time in Finland population-based cancer risk and cancer mortality after all SOTs (lung and childhood transplantations included) as standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and standardized mortality ratios (SMRs). Data from transplant registries were linked with the data of Finnish Cancer Registry and Statistics Finland. We followed 6548 consecutive first SOT recipients from 1 January 1987 to 31 December 2016 translating to 66 741 person-years (median follow-up time 8.9 years [interquartile range 4.0-15.1]). In total, 2096 cancers were found in 1483 patients (23% of all patients). Majority of cancers (53%) were nonmelanoma skin cancers (NMSCs). The overall SIR was 3.6 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 3.5-3.8) and the SIR excluding NMSCs was 2.2 (95% CI: 2.0-2.3). SIR for all cancers was highest for heart (5.0) and lowest for liver (2.7) recipients. Most common cancer types after NMSCs were non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), SIR 9.9 (95% CI: 8.5-11.4) and kidney cancer, SIR 7.3 (95% CI: 6.0-8.8). Cancer-related deaths were 17% (n = 408) of all deaths after first month post transplantation. SMR for all cancers was 2.5 (95% CI: 2.2-2.7) and for NHL 13.6 (95% CI: 10.7-16.8). Notably, overall SIR for cancer was lower in later period (2000-2016), 3.0 (95% CI: 2.8-3.2), than in earlier period (1987-1999), 4.3 (95% CI: 4.0-4.5), P < .001. Decrease in cancer incidence was temporally associated with major changes in immunosuppression in the 2000s.

Development and validation of a model to predict incident chronic liver disease in the general population: The CLivD score.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Current screening strategies for chronic liver disease focus on detection of subclinical advanced liver fibrosis but cannot identify those at high future risk of severe liver disease. Our aim was to develop and validate a risk prediction model for incident chronic liver disease in the general population based on widely available factors. METHODS: Multivariable Cox regression analyses were used to develop prediction models for liver-related outcomes with and without laboratory measures (Modellab and Modelnon-lab) in 25,760 individuals aged 40-70 years. Their data were sourced from the Finnish population-based health examination surveys FINRISK 1992-2012 and Health 2000 (derivation cohort). The models were externally validated in the Whitehall II (n = 5,058) and Copenhagen City Heart Study (CCHS) (n = 3,049) cohorts. RESULTS: The absolute rate of incident liver outcomes per 100,000 person-years ranged from 53 to 144. The final prediction model included age, sex, alcohol use (drinks/week), waist-hip ratio, diabetes, and smoking, and Modellab also included gamma-glutamyltransferase values. Internally validated Wolbers' C-statistics were 0.77 for Modellab and 0.75 for Modelnon-lab, while apparent 15-year AUCs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.75-0.93) and 0.82 (95% CI 0.74-0.91). The models identified a small proportion (<2%) of the population with >10% absolute 15-year risk for liver events. Of all liver events, only 10% occurred in participants in the lowest risk category. In the validation cohorts, 15-year AUCs were 0.78 (Modellab) and 0.65 (Modelnon-lab) in the CCHS cohort, and 0.78 (Modelnon-lab) in the Whitehall II cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Based on widely available risk factors, the Chronic Liver Disease (CLivD) score can be used to predict risk of future advanced liver disease in the general population. LAY SUMMARY: Liver disease often progresses silently without symptoms and thus the diagnosis is often delayed until severe complications occur and prognosis becomes poor. In order to identify individuals in the general population who have a high risk of developing severe liver disease in the future, we developed and validated a Chronic Liver Disease (CLivD) risk prediction score, based on age, sex, alcohol use, waist-hip ratio, diabetes, and smoking, with or without measurement of the liver enzyme gamma-glutamyltransferase. The CLivD score can be used as part of health counseling, and for planning further liver investigations and follow-up.

Genetic Variation in the Mitochondrial Glycerol-3-Phosphate Acyltransferase Is Associated With Liver Injury.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Most of the genetic basis of chronic liver disease remains undiscovered. APPROACH AND RESULTS: To identify genetic loci that modulate the risk of liver injury, we performed genome-wide association studies on circulating levels of alanine aminotransferase (ALT), aspartate aminotransferase (AST), alkaline phosphatase (ALP), and total bilirubin across 312,671 White British participants in the UK Biobank. We focused on variants associated with elevations in all four liver biochemistries at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8 ) and that replicated using Mass General Brigham Biobank in 19,323 European ancestry individuals. We identified a genetic locus in mitochondrial glycerol-3-phosphate acyltransferase (GPAM rs10787429) associated with increased levels of ALT (P = 1.4 × 10-30 ), AST (P = 3.6 × 10-10 ), ALP (P = 9.5 × 10-30 ), and total bilirubin (P = 2.9 × 10-12 ). This common genetic variant was also associated with an allele dose-dependent risk of alcohol-associated liver disease (odd ratio [OR] = 1.34, P = 2.6 × 10-5 ) and fatty liver disease (OR = 1.18, P = 5.8 × 10-4 ) by International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision codes. We identified significant interactions between GPAM rs10787429 and elevated body mass index in association with ALT and AST (P = 7.1 × 10-9 and 3.95 × 10-8 , respectively), as well as between GPAM rs10787429 and weekly alcohol consumption in association with ALT, AST, and alcohol-associated liver disease (P = 4.0 × 10-2 , 1.6 × 10-2 , and 1.3 × 10-2 , respectively). Unlike previously described genetic variants that are associated with an increased risk of liver injury but confer a protective effect on circulating lipids, GPAM rs10787429 was associated with an increase in total cholesterol (P = 2.0 × 10-17 ), LDL cholesterol (P = 2.0 × 10-10 ), and HDL cholesterol (P = 6.6 × 10-37 ). Single-cell RNA-sequencing data demonstrated hepatocyte-predominant expression of GPAM in cells that co-express genes related to VLDL production (P = 9.4 × 10-103 ). CONCLUSIONS: Genetic variation in GPAM is associated with susceptibility to liver injury. GPAM may represent a therapeutic target in chronic liver disease.

Administrative Coding in Electronic Health Care Record-Based Research of NAFLD: An Expert Panel Consensus Statement.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Electronic health record (EHR)-based research allows the capture of large amounts of data, which is necessary in NAFLD, where the risk of clinical liver outcomes is generally low. The lack of consensus on which International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes should be used as exposures and outcomes limits comparability and generalizability of results across studies. We aimed to establish consensus among a panel of experts on ICD codes that could become the reference standard and provide guidance around common methodological issues. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Researchers with an interest in EHR-based NAFLD research were invited to collectively define which administrative codes are most appropriate for documenting exposures and outcomes. We used a modified Delphi approach to reach consensus on several commonly encountered methodological challenges in the field. After two rounds of revision, a high level of agreement (>67%) was reached on all items considered. Full consensus was achieved on a comprehensive list of administrative codes to be considered for inclusion and exclusion criteria in defining exposures and outcomes in EHR-based NAFLD research. We also provide suggestions on how to approach commonly encountered methodological issues and identify areas for future research. CONCLUSIONS: This expert panel consensus statement can help harmonize and improve generalizability of EHR-based NAFLD research.

Repeated measurements of non-invasive fibrosis tests to monitor the progression of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A long-term follow-up study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The presence of advanced hepatic fibrosis is the prime marker for the prediction of liver-related complications in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Blood-based non-invasive tests (NITs) have been developed to evaluate fibrosis and identify patients at risk. Current guidelines propose monitoring the progression of NAFLD using repeated NITs at 2-3-year intervals. The aim of this study was to evaluate the association of changes in NITs measured at two time points with the progression of NAFLD. METHODS: We retrospectively included NAFLD patients with NIT measurements in whom the baseline hepatic fibrosis stage had been assessed by biopsy or transient elastography (TE). Subjects underwent follow-up visits at least 1 year from baseline to evaluate the progression of NAFLD. NAFLD progression was defined as the development of end-stage liver disease or fibrosis progression according to repeat biopsy or TE. The following NITs were calculated at baseline and follow-up: Fibrosis-4 (FIB-4), NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI) and dynamic aspartate-to-alanine aminotransferase ratio (dAAR). RESULTS: One hundred and thirty-five patients were included with a mean follow-up of 12.6 ± 8.5 years. During follow-up, 41 patients (30%) were diagnosed with progressive NAFLD. Change in NIT scores during follow-up was significantly associated with disease progression for all NITs tested except for NFS. However, the diagnostic precision was suboptimal with area under the receiver operating characteristics 0.56-0.64 and positive predictive values of 0.28-0.36 at sensitivity fixed at 90%. CONCLUSIONS: Change of FIB-4, NFS, APRI, and dAAR scores is only weakly associated with disease progression in NAFLD. Our findings do not support repeated measurements of these NITs for monitoring the course of NAFLD.