Modified forest rotation lengths: Long-term effects on landscape-scale habitat availability for specialized species.

We evaluated the long-term implications from modifying rotation lengths in production forests for four forest-reliant species with different habitat requirements. By combining simulations of forest development with habitat models, and accounting both for stand and landscape scale influences, we projected habitat availability over 150 years in a large Swedish landscape, using rotation lengths which are longer (+22% and +50%) and shorter (-22%) compared to current practices. In terms of mean habitat availability through time, species requiring older forest were affected positively by extended rotations, and negatively by shortened rotations. For example, the mean habitat area for the treecreeper Certhia familiaris (a bird preferring forest with larger trees) increased by 31% when rotations were increased by 22%, at a 5% cost to net present value (NPV) and a 7% decrease in harvested volume. Extending rotation lengths by 50% provided more habitat for this species compared to a 22% extension, but at a much higher marginal cost. In contrast, the beetle Hadreule elongatula, which is dependent on sun-exposed dead wood, benefited from shortened rather than prolonged rotations. Due to an uneven distribution of stand-ages within the landscape, the relative amounts of habitat provided by different rotation length scenarios for a given species were not always consistent through time during the simulation period. If implemented as a conservation measure, prolonging rotations will require long-term strategic planning to avoid future bottlenecks in habitat availability, and will need to be accompanied by complementary measures accounting for the diversity of habitats necessary for the conservation of forest biodiversity.

Projecting biodiversity and wood production in future forest landscapes: 15 key modeling considerations.

A variety of modeling approaches can be used to project the future development of forest systems, and help to assess the implications of different management alternatives for biodiversity and ecosystem services. This diversity of approaches does however present both an opportunity and an obstacle for those trying to decide which modeling technique to apply, and interpreting the management implications of model output. Furthermore, the breadth of issues relevant to addressing key questions related to forest ecology, conservation biology, silviculture, economics, requires insights stemming from a number of distinct scientific disciplines. As forest planners, conservation ecologists, ecological economists and silviculturalists, experienced with modeling trade-offs and synergies between biodiversity and wood biomass production, we identified fifteen key considerations relevant to assessing the pros and cons of alternative modeling approaches. Specifically we identified key considerations linked to study question formulation, modeling forest dynamics, forest processes, study landscapes, spatial and temporal aspects, and the key response metrics - biodiversity and wood biomass production, as well as dealing with trade-offs and uncertainties. We also provide illustrative examples from the modeling literature stemming from the key considerations assessed. We use our findings to reiterate the need for explicitly addressing and conveying the limitations and uncertainties of any modeling approach taken, and the need for interdisciplinary research efforts when addressing the conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of environmental resources.

Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies for production forests: Trade-offs, synergies, and uncertainties in biodiversity and ecosystem services delivery in Northern Europe.

Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies (CCAMS) are changes to the management of production forests motivated by the need to mitigate climate change, or adapt production forests to climate change risks. Sweden is employing CCAMS with unclear implications for biodiversity and forest ecosystem services (ES). Here, we synthesized evidence from 51 published scientific reviews, to evaluate the potential implications for biodiversity and a range of provisioning, regulating, and cultural ES, from the adoption of CCAMS relative to standard forestry practice. The CCAMS assessed were the adoption of (i) mixed-species stands, (ii) continuous cover forestry, (iii) altered rotation lengths, (iv) conversion to introduced tree species, (v) logging residue extraction, (vi) stand fertilization, and (vii) altered ditching/draining practices. We highlight the complexity of biodiversity and ES outcomes, identify knowledge gaps, and emphasize the importance of evidence-based decision making and landscape-scale planning when navigating choices involving the widespread adoption of CCAMS.

An approach for including consideration of stream water dissolved organic carbon in long term forest planning.

The objective of this study was to add to a traditional forest planning model by incorporating some consideration of the effects of forestry on dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations in streams over time. In a case study, for a watershed in northern Sweden, we present the best possible solution to a forest planning problem that maximizes the net present value (NPV) while the DOC concentration levels in the watershed are maintained below a defined threshold value. Results from the case study show that the decrease in NPV, when taking DOC into account, was considerable. However, the decrease in possible harvest volume was restricted in the case study area because the model moved harvesting activity from the first 20-year period to later periods to avoid high initial DOC concentrations. The model presented could be a useful tool for predicting the effect of forestry on DOC concentrations over time.

Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves.

A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI) plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV), a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1) only considering present values, (2) giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3) applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4) only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for disturbance-sensitive species.

Cost-effective age structure and geographical distribution of boreal forest reserves.

1. Forest reserves are established to preserve biodiversity, and to maintain natural functions and processes. Today there is heightened focus on old-growth stages, with less attention given to early successional stages. The biodiversity potential of younger forests has been overlooked, and the cost-effectiveness of incorporating different age classes in reserve networks has not yet been studied.2. We performed a reserve selection analysis in boreal Sweden using the Swedish National Forest Inventory plots. Seventeen structural variables were used as biodiversity indicators, and the cost of protecting each plot as a reserve was assessed using the Heureka system. A goal programming approach was applied, which allowed inclusion of several objectives and avoided a situation in which common indicators affected the result more than rare ones. The model was limited either by budget or area.3. All biodiversity indicators were found in all age classes, with more than half having the highest values in ages ≥ 100 years. Several large-tree indicators and all deadwood indicators had higher values in forests 0-14 years than in forests 15-69 years.4. It was most cost-effective to protect a large proportion of young forests since they generally have a lower net present value compared to older forests, but still contain structures of importance for biodiversity. However, it was more area-effective to protect a large proportion of old forests since they have a higher biodiversity potential per area.5. The geographical distribution of reserves selected with the budget-constrained model was strongly biassed towards the north-western section of boreal Sweden, with a large proportion of young forest, whereas the area-constrained model focussed on the south-eastern section, with dominance by the oldest age class.6.Synthesis and applications. We show that young forests with large amounts of structures important to biodiversity such as dead wood and remnant trees are cheap and cost-efficient to protect. This suggests that reserve networks should incorporate sites with high habitat quality of different forest ages. Since young forests are generally neglected in conservation, our approach is of interest also to other forest biomes where biodiversity is adapted to disturbance regimes resulting in open, early successional stages.