Liver stiffness predicts progression to liver-related events in patients with chronic liver disease - A cohort study of 14 414 patients.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Liver stiffness measurement (LSM) by vibration-controlled transient elastography (VCTE) is a non-invasive diagnostic biomarker of liver fibrosis. It is uncertain if LSM can predict risk for future liver-related outcomes in large, heterogenous populations. METHODS: This Swedish multi-centre cohort study included patients (n = 14 414) from 16 sites who underwent LSM by VCTE between 2008 and 2020. Outcomes were ascertained from national registers. We investigated progression to cirrhosis with portal hypertension or hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), separately. Cox regression was used to obtain hazard ratios (HRs). Harrel's C-index was used to measure discrimination of VCTE. RESULTS: Included patients had a median age of 46 (interquartile range 34-57), median LSM of 5.9 kPa (4.6-8.0), 59% were male, and the majority had hepatitis C (50.1%). During a median follow-up of 5.9 (4.3-8.0) years, 402 patients (2.7%) developed cirrhosis with portal hypertension. In patients with an LSM ≥25 kPa, 28.7% developed cirrhosis with portal hypertension within 5 years of follow-up, while only .6% of patients with an LSM <10 kPa did. This translated to a HR of 48.3 (95% confidence interval = 37.6-62.0). VCTE had a high discriminative ability, with C-indices above .80 for most liver diseases, including .82 for MASLD. Similar findings were seen for incident HCC. CONCLUSIONS: Increased LSM by VCTE was associated with an increased risk of progression to both cirrhosis with portal hypertension, and to HCC, and had a high discriminative ability across different aetiologies of chronic liver diseases. These results support the use of VCTE to guide follow-up and treatment decisions.

Clinical outcomes and sick leave in relation to UDCA treatment in Swedish patients with primary biliary cholangitis.

OBJECTIVES: Primary biliary cholangitis (PBC) is an autoimmune liver disease that may progress into liver cirrhosis. Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) is known to prevent or delay the disease progression, but little is known about work incapacity in PBC patients. We aimed to compare clinical outcomes (transplantation-free survival; cirrhosis development) and sick leave in patients with PBC with and without UDCA therapy. METHODS: The medical records of 526 patients with PBC diagnosed from 2004 to 2016 were reviewed retrospectively. Sick leave data retrieved from the Swedish Social Insurance Agency were analysed for a sub-cohort of patients and matched controls. Cox regression was used for analysis of clinical outcomes. Logistic and conditional logistic regressions were used for sick leave analysis. RESULTS: A total of 10.6% of patients died and 3.4% received liver transplantation over a median follow-up time of 5.7 years. UDCA-untreated patients (HR 3.62 (95%CI 2.02-6.49)) and UDCA non-responders (HR 3.78 (95% CI 1.87-7.66)) had higher mortality or transplantation rates than UDCA responders. Patients with PBC had higher odds of sick leave (OR 2.50; 95% CI 1.69-3.70) than matched controls. Untreated patients were more likely to be on sick leave (OR 3.22; 95% CI 1.12-9.25) two years after diagnosis than UDCA responders. CONCLUSION: Both untreated patients and UDCA non-responders had lower liver transplantation-free survival rates than UDCA responders. Patients with PBC were more likely to be on sick leave compared to matched controls from the general population.

Extrahepatic autoimmune diseases in primary biliary cholangitis: Prevalence and significance for clinical presentation and disease outcome.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: The prevalence and clinical significance of extrahepatic autoimmune diseases (EHAIDs) have not been evaluated in a large cohort of primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). METHODS: The medical records of 1554 patients with PBC from 20 international centers were retrospectively reviewed. Development of decompensated cirrhosis (ascites, variceal bleeding, and/or hepatic encephalopathy) and hepatocellular carcinoma were considered clinical endpoints. RESULTS: A total of 35 different EHAIDs were diagnosed in 440 (28.3%) patients with PBC. Patients with EHAIDs were more often female (92.5% vs 86.1%, P < 0.001) and seropositive for anti-mitochondrial antibodies (88% vs 84%, P = 0.05) and antinuclear antibodies and/or smooth muscle antibodies (53.8% vs 43.6%, P = 0.005). At presentation, patients with EHAIDs had significantly lower levels of alkaline phosphatase (1.76 vs 1.98 × upper limit of normal [ULN], P = 0.006), aspartate aminotransferase (1.29 vs 1.50 × ULN, P < 0.001), and total bilirubin (0.53 vs 0.58 × ULN, P = 0.002). Patients with EHAIDs and without EHAIDs had similar rates of GLOBE high-risk status (12.3% vs 16.1%, P = 0.07) and Paris II response (71.4% vs 69.4%, P = 0.59). Overall, event-free survival was not different in patients with and without EHAIDs (90.8% vs 90.7%, P = 0.53, log rank). Coexistence of each autoimmune thyroid diseases (10.6%), Sjögren disease (8.3%), systemic sclerosis (2.9%), rheumatoid arthritis (2.7%), systemic lupus erythematosus (1.7%), celiac disease (1.7%), psoriasis (1.5%), and inflammatory bowel diseases (1.3%) did not influence the outcome. CONCLUSIONS: Our study confirms that EHAIDs are frequently diagnosed in patients with PBC. The presence of EHAIDs may influence the clinical phenotype of PBC at presentation but has no impact on PBC outcome.

Predictive Capacity for Mortality and Severe Liver Disease of the Relative Fat Mass Algorithm.

In the latest decades, obesity has become a major global health problem. Obesity has traditionally been defined as a body mass index (BMI) of equal to or more than 30 kg/m2. It is now well known that persons with obesity to a high degree develop nonalcoholic fatty liver disease and are at risk for developing cirrhosis.1 However, BMI has been criticized for being an imperfect measurement of body fat composition.2 Recently, a new algorithm was developed to better estimate the percentage of body fat.3 The relative fat mass (RFM) was based on height, waist circumference (WC), and sex. The RFM was found to be superior to BMI and other estimators in estimating body fat percentage, using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry as the gold standard. RFM had also a stronger association with diabetes status than BMI. However, because the analyzed data came from a cross-sectional source, it is unclear if the RFM is superior to BMI or other measures of body composition in predicting incident clinically significant outcomes, including mortality. In addition, RFM was not compared with WC or waist-hip-ratio (WHR), which are commonly used clinically and in epidemiologic studies.

Validation of Risk Scoring Systems in Ursodeoxycholic Acid-Treated Patients With Primary Biliary Cholangitis.

INTRODUCTION: Risk stratification based on biochemical variables is a useful tool for monitoring ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)-treated patients with primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Several UDCA response criteria and scoring systems have been proposed for risk prediction in PBC, but these have not been validated in large external cohorts. METHODS: We performed a study on data of 1746 UDCA-treated patients with PBC from 25 centers in Europe, United States, and Canada. The prognostic performance of the risk scoring systems (GLOBE and UK-PBC) and the UDCA response criteria (Barcelona, Paris I, Paris II, Rotterdam, and Toronto) were evaluated. We regarded cirrhosis-related complications (ascites, variceal bleeding, and/or hepatic encephalopathy) as clinical end points. RESULTS: A total of 171 patients reached a clinical end point during a median 7 years (range 1-16 years) of follow-up. The 5-, 10- and 15-year adverse outcome-free survivals were 95%, 85%, and 77%. The GLOBE and UK-PBC scores predicted cirrhosis-related complications better than the UDCA response criteria. The hazard ratio (HR) for a 1 standard deviation increase was HR 5.05 (95% confidence interval (CI): 4.43-5.74, P < 0.001) for the GLOBE score and HR 3.39 (95% CI: 3.10-3.72, P < 0.001) for the UK-PBC score. Overall, the GLOBE and UK-PBC risk scores showed similar and excellent prognostic performance (C-statistic, 0.93; 95% CI: 0.91%-95% vs 0.94; 95% CI: 0.91%-0.96%). DISCUSSION: In our international, multicenter PBC cohort, the GLOBE and UK-PBC risk scoring systems were good predictors of future cirrhosis-related complications.

Non-invasive fibrosis scoring systems can predict future metabolic complications and overall mortality in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).

Background and aim: Progression to fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is associated with an increased risk of liver-related events, overall mortality and possibly metabolic comorbidities. Our aim was to determine if non-invasive fibrosis scoring systems can predict the future risk of diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease (CVD), chronic kidney disease (CKD), liver-related events and overall mortality. Methods: Patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD 1978 to 2006 were identified from a computerised register in Malmö, Sweden. Medical records were scrutinised in detail to collect data from inclusion to endpoint (death or end of 2016). Non-invasive fibrosis scoring systems (FIB-4-index, NAFLD fibrosis score (NFS), APRI and BARD score) were calculated and the scores classified into three risk categories (low, intermediate and high risk for advanced fibrosis). Chronic kidney disease was evaluated using the CKD-EPI equation. Results: One hundred and forty-four patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were included, with a mean age of 53.2 years and a mean follow-up time of 18.8 years. At inclusion, 18% had advanced fibrosis. NFS was the only score that could predict the future risk of all included outcomes with fairly good accuracy (Area-under-ROC curve). Multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios revealed that both the intermediate and high-risk category of FIB-4-index and NFS could significantly predict metabolic outcomes. All four scoring systems significantly predicted overall mortality in the high-risk category. Conclusions: Non-invasive fibrosis scoring systems, especially NFS and FIB-4-index, can be used to identify patients at risk of future liver-related events, overall mortality, metabolic comorbidities and CKD.

Waist/Hip Ratio Better Predicts Development of Severe Liver Disease Within 20 Years Than Body Mass Index: A Population-based Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Obesity, commonly assessed based on body mass index (BMI), is associated with an increased risk for severe liver disease. It is not known if other measures of body composition are better determinants of risk for severe liver disease, and/or if these differ between women and men. We investigated the body composition measures that best predict the development of severe liver disease. METHODS: We collected data from the Malmö Diet and Cancer study in Sweden, comprising 16,784 women and 10,833 (mean age, 58.1 years at baseline), and followed patients for a median 19.8 years. We analyzed data on measures of body composition including BMI, waist/hip ratio, and others. We determined whether subjects were diagnosed with severe liver disease, or died from severe liver disease, until the end of 2014 using Swedish national registers. Associations between body composition measures and severe liver disease were assessed using Cox regression models, stratified by sex and adjusted for age, alcohol consumption, smoking, education, and physical activity. RESULTS: All studied measures of body composition were significantly associated with severe liver disease. Waist/hip ratio was the best predictor of severe liver disease in women (hazard ratio [HR] per standard deviation increment, 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-1.46) and men (HR, 1.46; 95% CI, 1.31-1.63). BMI had the lowest HR in women (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.00-1.27) and men (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.12-1.42). The association between waist/hip ratio and development of liver disease was independent of BMI. CONCLUSIONS: In a Swedish population-based cohort study, we associated all measures of body composition with risk of severe liver disease. However, measures of abdominal obesity were best at predicting development of severe liver disease.

Low to moderate lifetime alcohol consumption is associated with less advanced stages of fibrosis in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Moderate alcohol consumption has been associated with a lower risk of disease severity in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). It is unclear if this reflects current or lifetime drinking, or can be attributed to confounders such as diet and exercise. We evaluated the impact of lifetime alcohol consumption on fibrosis severity in NAFLD. METHODS: We prospectively enrolled 120 subjects with biopsy-proven NAFLD and through detailed questionnaires examined lifetime alcohol consumption, diet and physical activity. Main outcome measures were odds ratios (OR) for fibrosis stage, calculated through ordinal regression after adjustment for body mass index, diabetes mellitus type 2, smoking and age at biopsy. A biomarker for recent alcohol consumption, phosphatidyl ethanol (PEth) was sampled. RESULTS: An increase in median weekly alcohol consumption to a maximum of 13 drinks per week was associated with lower fibrosis stage (adjusted OR for each incremental unit, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.76-0.97; p = .017). The lowest risk for fibrosis was found with the lowes`t odds seen in the top quartile of alcohol consumption (aOR 0.23; 95% CI 0.08-0.66; p = .006). Adding soft drink and coffee consumptions, and physical activity to the model did not change the estimates. Subjects with PEth ≥0.3 µmol/L had higher ORs for a higher fibrosis stage (aOR 2.77; 95% CI 1.01-7.59; p = .047). CONCLUSION: Lifetime alcohol consumption with up to 13 units per week is associated with lower fibrosis stage in NAFLD. Elevated PEth is associated with higher stages of fibrosis.

Increased risk of cirrhosis and hepatocellular cancer during long-term follow-up of patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD.

OBJECTIVE: Our aims were to investigate the natural history of biopsy-proven non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) in Sweden, its associated complications, the clinical and biochemical factors associated with more advanced liver disease and the survival rate with a mean follow-up time of 27 years. MATERIAL AND METHODS: All subjects participating in the population-based prospective cohort study Malmö Preventive Project (MPP) from 1974 to 1992 who had undergone liver biopsy with the diagnosis of NAFLD were included. The remaining MPP cohort was used as a control group. Subjects with other liver diseases and alcohol overconsumption were excluded. A panel of blood tests was analyzed in the MPP cohort. Follow-up of the NAFLD patients included studies of medical records, pathology records and mortality rates from the Swedish National Board of Health and Welfare's register until the end of 2011. RESULTS: A total of 36 patients were diagnosed with biopsy-proven NAFLD. Median follow-up time was 27.0 years (6.32-35.3). Nine patients (25%) were diagnosed with cirrhosis and five (14%) with hepatocellular cancer, all with a previous diagnosis of cirrhosis. There were significant differences in liver function tests, insulin resistance (as homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance) and body mass index (BMI) in patients with NAFLD compared with the control group. Mortality in the NAFLD group was significantly higher, 58.3% compared to 33.8% (p = 0.004). Hepatocellular cancer accounted for 23.8% of all deaths in the NAFLD group, compared to 0.7% (p = 0.000). CONCLUSIONS: NAFLD can progress to advanced liver disease, including cirrhosis, with a higher than expected mortality and incidence of hepatocellular cancer.

Lifestyle and genetic risk of chronic liver disease in metabolically healthy and unhealthy individuals from the general population.

Background & Aims: It is unclear to what extent lifestyle and genetic factors affect the incidence of chronic liver disease (CLD) in the general population and if lifestyle affects CLD independently of underlying cardiometabolic perturbations and genetic predisposition. Methods: We examined 27,991 men and women aged 44-73 years from the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study recruited between 1991-1996 and followed until the end of 2020 using registry linkage (median follow-up time 25.1 years; 382 incident first-time CLD events). Associations between cardiometabolic factors, polygenic risk scores (PRSs), and lifestyle factors in relation to CLD were examined using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. Results: The incidence of CLD increased with number of cardiometabolic risk factors (the hazard ratio per each additional cardiometabolic risk factor was 1.33; 95% CI 1.21-1.45; p = 5.1 x 10-10). Two novel PRSs for metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease and a PRS for cirrhosis were associated with higher risk of CLD but provided marginal predictive utility on top of other risk factors and compared to the PNPLA3 rs738409 genetic variant. An unhealthy lifestyle (high alcohol intake, current smoking, physical inactivity and unhealthy diet) markedly increased the risk of CLD (hazard ratio 3.97, 95% CI 2.59-6.10). Observed associations between examined lifestyle factors and CLD were largely independent of cardiometabolic perturbations and polygenic risk. Conclusions: We confirmed the importance of cardiometabolic dysfunction in relation to risk of CLD in the general population. Lifestyle risk factors were shown to be independently associated with CLD and added predictive information on top of cardiometabolic risk factors. Information on the polygenic risk of liver disease does not currently improve the prediction of CLD in the general population. Impact and implications: This large population-based prospective study suggests largely independent roles of cardiometabolic, lifestyle, and genetic risk factors in the development of chronic liver disease. Findings strengthen the evidence base for a beneficial effect of modification of high-risk lifestyle behaviors in the primary prevention of chronic liver disease in the general population.

Structure-function analysis of time-resolved immunological phases in metabolic dysfunction-associated fatty liver disease (MASH) comparing the NIF mouse model to human MASH.

Metabolic dysfunction-associated steatohepatitis (MASH) is a common but frequently unrecognized complication of obesity and type 2 diabetes. The association between these conditions is multifaceted and involves complex interactions between metabolic, inflammatory, and genetic factors. Here we assess the underlying structural and molecular processes focusing on the immunological phase of MASH in the nonobese inflammation and fibrosis (NIF) mouse model and compare it to the human disease as well as other murine models. Histopathology together with synchrotron-radiation-based x-ray micro-computed tomography (SRµCT) was used to investigate structural changes within the hepatic sinusoids network in the NIF mouse in comparison to patients with different severities of MASH. A time-course, bulk RNA-sequencing analysis of liver tissue from NIF mice was performed to identify the dynamics of key processes associated with the pathogenesis. Transcriptomics profiling of the NIF mouse revealed a gradual transition from an initially reactive inflammatory response to a regenerative, pro-fibrotic inflammatory response suggesting new avenues for treatment strategies that focus on immunological targets. Despite the lack of metabolic stress induced liver phenotype, a large similarity between the NIF mouse and the immunological phase of human MASH was detected. The translational value was further supported by the comparative analyses with MASH patients and additional animal models. Finally, the impact of diets known to induce metabolic stress, was explored in the NIF mouse. An obesogenic diet was found to induce key physiological, metabolic, and histologic changes akin to those observed in human MASH.

Increased mortality in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease with chronic kidney disease is explained by metabolic comorbidities.

BACKGROUND: There is a close association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and prevalent chronic kidney disease (CKD). Few longitudinal studies exist. No previous study has investigated to what extent CKD affects mortality in biopsy-proven NAFLD. Our aim was to investigate the long-term risk of developing CKD in biopsy-proven NAFLD and its effect on mortality. METHODS: Patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD diagnosed in 1978-2006 in Malmö, Sweden were included. Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) at baseline and last follow-up was calculated with the CKD-EPI equation. CKD 3-5 (< 60 mL/min/1.73 m2) was classified as CKD. Hospital medical records were extensively scrutinized from inclusion to endpoint (death or end of 2016). The prevalence of CKD was compared to a control group from the population-based prospective cohort Malmö Preventive Project (MPP). RESULTS: 120 patients with biopsy-proven NAFLD were included. Mean age was 52.5 years and mean follow-up time 19.5 years. At baseline CKD prevalence in NAFLD was only significantly higher in the highest age group compared to controls (> 55 years, 25% vs. 9.5%, P = 0.003), and no significant difference was seen at follow-up (in total 37.5% vs. 30.8%, P = 0.124). NAFLD patients with long-term CKD had significantly higher crude overall mortality rate than NAFLD patients without CKD (P < 0.001). Regression analyses revealed that this increased mortality risk was explained by an increased prevalence of metabolic comorbidities (including diabetes mellitus), not CKD. CONCLUSION: Mortality risk is significantly increased in NAFLD patients with long-term CKD due to metabolic comorbidities, not influenced by CKD per se.

The prediction of colorectal cancer using anthropometric measures: A Swedish population-based cohort study with 22 years of follow-up.

Background: Obesity is a risk factor for colorectal cancer (CRC). Objective: The objective of this article is to investigate whether anthropometric measures reflecting visceral obesity are better predictors of CRC than body mass index (BMI). Methods: Data were analysed from the Malmö Diet and Cancer study in Sweden, comprising 16,669 women and 10,805 men (median age 56.6 and 59.1 years) followed for a median 21.5 years. Diagnoses of CRC were identified using Swedish national registers. Cox regression was used to test the associations of BMI, waist circumference (WC), waist-hip ratio, waist-to-height ratio, waist-to-hip-to-height ratio, A Body Shape Index (ABSI) and percentage body fat with the development of CRC adjusted for age, alcohol consumption, smoking, education and physical activity in men and women. Results: None of the measures were significantly associated with an increased risk for CRC in women. WC was the strongest predictor of colon cancer (CC) in men and the only measure that was independent of BMI. ABSI was the only measure significantly associated with the risk of rectal cancer in men. Conclusions: Visceral obesity, best expressed as WC, is a risk factor for CC in men but a poor predictive marker for CRC in women.

Effects of free omega-3 carboxylic acids and fenofibrate on liver fat content in patients with hypertriglyceridemia and non-alcoholic fatty liver disease: A double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled study.

BACKGROUND: Treatment with omega-3 fatty acids and fenofibrates reduces serum triglyceride levels, but few studies have compared the effect of these agents on liver fat. OBJECTIVE: The aim of the EFFECT I trial (NCT02354976) was to determine the effects of free omega-3 carboxylic acids (OM-3CA) and fenofibrate on liver fat in overweight or obese individuals with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease and hypertriglyceridemia. METHODS: Seventy-eight patients were randomized to receive oral doses of 4 g OM-3CA (n = 25), 200 mg fenofibrate (n = 27), or placebo (n = 26) for 12 weeks in a double-blind, parallel-group study. Liver proton density fat fraction (PDFF) and volume, pancreas volume, and adipose tissue volumes were assessed by magnetic resonance imaging. RESULTS: Changes in liver PDFF at 12 weeks were not significantly different across treatment groups (relative changes from baseline: placebo, +4%; OM-3CA, -2%; and fenofibrate, +17%). The common PNPLA3 genetic polymorphism (I148M) did not significantly influence the effects of OM-3CA or fenofibrate on liver PDFF. Fenofibrate treatment significantly increased liver and pancreas volumes vs placebo treatment, and the changes in liver and pancreas volumes were positively correlated (rho 0.45, P = .02). Total liver fat volume increased significantly in patients using fenofibrate vs OM-3CA (+23% vs -3%, P = .04). Compared with OM-3CA, fenofibrate increased total liver fat and liver volume. Serum triglycerides decreased with OM-3CA (-26%, P = .02) and fenofibrate (-38%, P < .001) vs placebo. In contrast to OM-3CA, fenofibrate reduced plasma docosahexaenoic acid levels and increased plasma acetylcarnitine and butyrylcarnitine levels, estimated delta-9 desaturase activity and the concentration of urine F2-isoprostanes. CONCLUSIONS: OM-3CA and fenofibrate reduced serum triglycerides but did not reduce liver fat. Fenofibrate increased total liver volume and total liver fat volume vs OM-3CA, indicating a complex effect of fenofibrate on human hepatic lipid metabolism.