Ecological interactions driving population dynamics of two tick-borne pathogens, Borrelia burgdorferi and Babesia microti.

Borrelia burgdorferi (Bb) and Babesia microti (Bm) are vector-borne zoonotic pathogens commonly found co-circulating in Ixodes scapularis and Peromyscus leucopus populations. The restricted distribution and lower prevalence of Bm has been historically attributed to lower host-to-tick transmission efficiency and limited host ranges. We hypothesized that prevalence patterns are driven by coinfection dynamics and vertical transmission. We use a multi-year, multiple location, longitudinal dataset with mathematical modelling to elucidate coinfection dynamics between Bb and Bm in natural populations of P. leucopus, the most competent reservoir host for both pathogens in the eastern USA. Our analyses indicate that, in the absence of vertical transmission, Bb is viable at lower tick numbers than Bm. However, with vertical transmission, Bm is viable at lower tick numbers than Bb. Vertical transmission has a particularly strong effect on Bm prevalence early in the active season while coinfection has an increasing role during the nymphal peak. Our analyses indicate that coinfection processes, such as facilitation of Bm infection by Bb, have relatively little influence on the persistence of either parasite. We suggest future work examines the sensitivity of Bm vertical transmission and other key processes to local environmental conditions to inform surveillance and control of tick-borne pathogens.

Host Specialisation, Immune Cross-Reaction and the Composition of Communities of Co-circulating Borrelia Strains.

We use mathematical modelling to examine how microbial strain communities are structured by the host specialisation traits and antigenic relationships of their members. The model is quite general and broadly applicable, but we focus on Borrelia burgdorferi, the Lyme disease bacterium, transmitted by ticks to mice and birds. In this system, host specialisation driven by the evasion of innate immunity has been linked to multiple niche polymorphism, while antigenic differentiation driven by the evasion of adaptive immunity has been linked to negative frequency dependence. Our model is composed of two host species, one vector, and multiple co-circulating pathogen strains that vary in their host specificity and their antigenic distances from one another. We explore the conditions required to maintain pathogen diversity. We show that the combination of host specificity and antigenic differentiation creates an intricate niche structure. Unequivocal rules that relate the stability of a strain community directly to the trait composition of its members are elusive. However, broad patterns are evident. When antigenic differentiation is weak, stable communities are typically composed entirely of generalists that can exploit either host species equally well. As antigenic differentiation increases, more diverse stable communities emerge, typically around trait compositions of generalists, generalists and very similar specialists, and specialists roughly balanced between the two host species.

Household demographic determinants of Ebola epidemic risk.

A salient characteristic of Ebola, and some other infectious diseases such as Tuberculosis, is intense transmission among small groups of cohabitants and relatively limited indiscriminate transmission in the wider population. Here we consider a mathematical model for an Ebola epidemic in a population structured into households of equal size. We show that household size, a fundamental demographic unit, is a critical factor that determines the vulnerability of a community to epidemics, and the effort required to control them. Our analysis is based on the household reproduction number, but we also consider the basic reproduction number, intrinsic growth rate and final epidemic size. We show that, when other epidemiological parameters are kept the same, all of these quantifications of epidemic growth and size are increased by larger households and more intense within-household transmission. We go on to model epidemic control by case detection and isolation followed by household quarantine. We show that, if household quarantine is ineffective, the critical probability with which cases must be detected to halt an epidemic increases significantly with each increment in household size and may be a very challenging target for communities composed of large households. Effective quarantine may, however, mitigate the detrimental impact of large household sizes. We conclude that communities composed of large households are fundamentally more vulnerable to epidemics of infectious diseases primarily transmitted by close contact, and any assessment of control strategies for these epidemics should take into account the demographic structure of the population.

Disease and disaster: Optimal deployment of epidemic control facilities in a spatially heterogeneous population with changing behaviour.

Epidemics of water-borne infections often follow natural disasters and extreme weather events that disrupt water management processes. The impact of such epidemics may be reduced by deployment of transmission control facilities such as clinics or decontamination plants. Here we use a relatively simple mathematical model to examine how demographic and environmental heterogeneities, population behaviour, and behavioural change in response to the provision of facilities, combine to determine the optimal configurations of limited numbers of facilities to reduce epidemic size, and endemic prevalence. We show that, if the presence of control facilities does not affect behaviour, a good general rule for responsive deployment to minimise epidemic size is to place them in exactly the locations where they will directly benefit the most people. However, if infected people change their behaviour to seek out treatment then the deployment of facilities offering treatment can lead to complex effects that are difficult to foresee. So careful mathematical analysis is the only way to get a handle on the optimal deployment. Behavioural changes in response to control facilities can also lead to critical facility numbers at which there is a radical change in the optimal configuration. So sequential improvement of a control strategy by adding facilities to an existing optimal configuration does not always produce another optimal configuration. We also show that the pre-emptive deployment of control facilities has conflicting effects. The configurations that minimise endemic prevalence are very different to those that minimise epidemic size. So cost-benefit analysis of strategies to manage endemic prevalence must factor in the frequency of extreme weather events and natural disasters.

Day-to-Day Population Movement and the Management of Dengue Epidemics.

Dengue is a growing public health problem in tropical and subtropical cities. It is transmitted by mosquitoes, and the main strategy for epidemic prevention and control is insecticide fumigation. Effective management is, however, proving elusive. People's day-to-day movement about the city is believed to be an important factor in the epidemiological dynamics. We use a simple model to examine the fundamental roles of broad demographic and spatial structures in epidemic initiation, growth and control. We show that the key factors are local dilution, characterised by the vector-host ratio, and spatial connectivity, characterised by the extent of habitually variable movement patterns. Epidemic risk in the population is driven by the demographic groups that frequent the areas with the highest vector-host ratio, even if they only spend some of their time there. Synchronisation of epidemic trajectories in different demographic groups is governed by the vector-host ratios to which they are exposed and the strength of connectivity. Strategies for epidemic prevention and management may be made more effective if they take into account the fluctuating landscape of transmission intensity associated with spatial heterogeneity in the vector-host ratio and people's day-to-day movement patterns.

Partial cross-enhancement in models for dengue epidemiology.

Four distinct serotypes of dengue virus co-circulate in many parts of the world. Antibodies to one serotype prevent infection with the homologous serotype, but may enhance infections with heterologous serotypes. Enhanced secondary infections have been implicated in the majority of severe cases, termed dengue hemorrhagic fever. Conventionally, mathematical models assume that all heterologous secondary infections are subject to enhanced susceptibility or transmissibility. However, empirical data show that only a minority of secondary infections lead to severe disease, which suggests that only a minority of secondary infections are subject to enhancement. We present a new modelling framework in which the population susceptible to secondary infection is split into a group prone to enhanced infection and a group with some degree of cross-protection. We use this framework to re-evaluate the role of enhanced infections in several well known dengue models that exhibit multi-annual epidemiological oscillations. We show that enhancement is unlikely to be driving such oscillations but may be modifying the effects of other drivers.

Medico-legal and ethical aspects of nasal fractures secondary to assault: do we owe a duty of care to advise patients to have a facial x-ray?

Guidelines advise that x-rays do not contribute to the clinical management of simple nasal fractures. However, in cases of simple nasal fracture secondary to assault, a facial x-ray may provide additional legal evidence should the victim wish to press charges, though there is no published guidance. We examine the ethical and medico-legal issues surrounding this controversial area.

Host adaptation drives genetic diversity in a vector-borne disease system.

The range of hosts a pathogen can infect is a key trait, influencing human disease risk and reservoir host infection dynamics. Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto (Bb), an emerging zoonotic pathogen, causes Lyme disease and is widely considered a host generalist, commonly infecting mammals and birds. Yet the extent of intraspecific variation in Bb host breadth, its role in determining host competence, and potential implications for human infection remain unclear. We conducted a long-term study of Bb diversity, defined by the polymorphic ospC locus, across white-footed mice, passerine birds, and tick vectors, leveraging long-read amplicon sequencing. Our results reveal strong variation in host breadth across Bb genotypes, exposing a spectrum of genotype-specific host-adapted phenotypes. We found support for multiple niche polymorphism, maintaining Bb diversity in nature and little evidence of temporal shifts in genotype dominance, as would be expected under negative frequency-dependent selection. Passerine birds support the circulation of several human-invasive strains (HISs) in the local tick population and harbor greater Bb genotypic diversity compared with white-footed mice. Mouse-adapted Bb genotypes exhibited longer persistence in individual mice compared with nonadapted genotypes. Genotype communities infecting individual mice preferentially became dominated by mouse-adapted genotypes over time. We posit that intraspecific variation in Bb host breadth and adaptation helps maintain overall species fitness in response to transmission by a generalist vector.

The impact of seasonal and year-round transmission regimes on the evolution of influenza A virus.

Punctuated antigenic change is believed to be a key element in the evolution of influenza A; clusters of antigenically similar strains predominate worldwide for several years until an antigenically distant mutant emerges and instigates a selective sweep. It is thought that a region of East-Southeast Asia with year-round transmission acts as a source of antigenic diversity for influenza A and seasonal epidemics in temperate regions make little contribution to antigenic evolution. We use a mathematical model to examine how different transmission regimes affect the evolutionary dynamics of influenza over the lifespan of an antigenic cluster. Our model indicates that, in non-seasonal regions, mutants that cause significant outbreaks appear before the peak of the wild-type epidemic. A relatively large proportion of these mutants spread globally. In seasonal regions, mutants that cause significant local outbreaks appear each year before the seasonal peak of the wild-type epidemic, but only a small proportion spread globally. The potential for global spread is strongly influenced by the intensity of non-seasonal circulation and coupling between non-seasonal and seasonal regions. Results are similar if mutations are neutral, or confer a weak to moderate antigenic advantage. However, there is a threshold antigenic advantage, depending on the non-seasonal transmission intensity, beyond which mutants can escape herd immunity in the non-seasonal region and there is a global explosion in diversity. We conclude that non-seasonal transmission regions are fundamental to the generation and maintenance of influenza diversity owing to their epidemiology. More extensive sampling of viral diversity in such regions could facilitate earlier identification of antigenically novel strains and extend the critical window for vaccine development.

The role of genomics in tracking the evolution of influenza A virus.

Influenza A virus causes annual epidemics and occasional pandemics of short-term respiratory infections associated with considerable morbidity and mortality. The pandemics occur when new human-transmissible viruses that have the major surface protein of influenza A viruses from other host species are introduced into the human population. Between such rare events, the evolution of influenza is shaped by antigenic drift: the accumulation of mutations that result in changes in exposed regions of the viral surface proteins. Antigenic drift makes the virus less susceptible to immediate neutralization by the immune system in individuals who have had a previous influenza infection or vaccination. A biannual reevaluation of the vaccine composition is essential to maintain its effectiveness due to this immune escape. The study of influenza genomes is key to this endeavor, increasing our understanding of antigenic drift and enhancing the accuracy of vaccine strain selection. Recent large-scale genome sequencing and antigenic typing has considerably improved our understanding of influenza evolution: epidemics around the globe are seeded from a reservoir in East-Southeast Asia with year-round prevalence of influenza viruses; antigenically similar strains predominate in epidemics worldwide for several years before being replaced by a new antigenic cluster of strains. Future in-depth studies of the influenza reservoir, along with large-scale data mining of genomic resources and the integration of epidemiological, genomic, and antigenic data, should enhance our understanding of antigenic drift and improve the detection and control of antigenically novel emerging strains.

Disrupting seasonality to control disease outbreaks: the case of koi herpes virus.

Common carp accounts for a substantial proportion of global freshwater aquaculture production. Koi herpes virus (KHV), a highly virulent disease affecting carp that emerged in the late 1990s, is a serious threat to this industry. After a fish is infected with KHV, there is a temperature dependent delay before it becomes infectious, and a further delay before mortality. Consequently, KHV epidemiology is driven by seasonal changes in water temperature. Also, it has been proposed that outbreaks could be controlled by responsive management of water temperature in aquaculture setups. We use a mathematical model to analyse the effect of seasonal temperature cycles on KHV epidemiology, and the impact of attempting to control outbreaks by disrupting this cycle. We show that, although disease progression is fast in summer and slow in winter, total mortality over a 2-year period is similar for outbreaks that start in either season. However, for outbreaks that start in late autumn, mortality may be low and immunity high. A single bout of water temperature management can be an effective outbreak control strategy if it is started as soon as dead fish are detected and maintained for a long time. It can also be effective if the frequency of infectious fish is used as an indicator for the beginning of treatment. In this case, however, there is a risk that starting the treatment too soon will increase mortality relative to the case when no treatment is used. This counterproductive effect can be avoided if multiple bouts of temperature management are used. We conclude that disrupting normal seasonal patterns in water temperature can be an effective strategy for controlling koi herpes virus. Exploiting the seasonal patterns, possibly in combination with temperature management, can also induce widespread immunity to KHV in a cohort of fish. However, employing these methods successfully requires careful assessment to ensure that the treatment is started, and finished, at the correct time.

High penetrance of myeloid neoplasia with diverse clinical and cytogenetic features in three siblings with a familial GATA2 deficiency.

Pathogenic germ-line variants in GATA2 (GATA2-deficiency) can cause childhood myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) and acute myeloid leukaemia (AML), and can be associated with distinct clinical syndromic features. However, penetrance and genotype-phenotype correlations are incompletely understood. Here we report on the clinically diverse features of three siblings affected by GATA2c.1021_1031del over an 18-year period, all initially presenting in childhood and adolescence with MDS and AML with monosomy 7 (-7), and one also with trisomy 8 (+8). The siblings inherited a GATA2c.1021_1031del from their father who remains asymptomatic in his sixth decade. The two younger sisters are well after unrelated haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (HSCT), while the first boy died of severe chronic lung disease after sibling HSCT from his youngest sister, who subsequently also developed GATA2-deficiency associated MDS. This family illustrates high penetrance with variable genotype/phenotype correlation within one generation with GATA2-deficiency. We surmise that the lung disease post sibling HSCT was also caused by the GATA2-deficiency. The experience with this family underlines the necessity for GATA2 analysis in all apparently sporadic childhood and teenage MDS and AML with -7 also in the absence of a family history or other clinical features, and rigorous genetic testing in siblings. Moreover, our findings support the arguments for pre-emptive HSCT in variant-carrying siblings.

Obesity and diabetes are major risk factors for epicardial adipose tissue inflammation.

BACKGROUNDEpicardial adipose tissue (EAT) directly overlies the myocardium, with changes in its morphology and volume associated with myriad cardiovascular and metabolic diseases. However, EAT's immune structure and cellular characterization remain incompletely described. We aimed to define the immune phenotype of EAT in humans and compare such profiles across lean, obese, and diabetic patients.METHODSWe recruited 152 patients undergoing open-chest coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG), valve repair/replacement (VR) surgery, or combined CABG/VR. Patients' clinical and biochemical data and EAT, subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT), and preoperative blood samples were collected. Immune cell profiling was evaluated by flow cytometry and complemented by gene expression studies of immune mediators. Bulk RNA-Seq was performed in EAT across metabolic profiles to assess whole-transcriptome changes observed in lean, obese, and diabetic groups.RESULTSFlow cytometry analysis demonstrated EAT was highly enriched in adaptive immune (T and B) cells. Although overweight/obese and diabetic patients had similar EAT cellular profiles to lean control patients, the EAT exhibited significantly (P ≤ 0.01) raised expression of immune mediators, including IL-1, IL-6, TNF-α, and IFN-γ. These changes were not observed in SAT or blood. Neither underlying coronary artery disease nor the presence of hypertension significantly altered the immune profiles observed. Bulk RNA-Seq demonstrated significant alterations in metabolic and inflammatory pathways in the EAT of overweight/obese patients compared with lean controls.CONCLUSIONAdaptive immune cells are the predominant immune cell constituent in human EAT and SAT. The presence of underlying cardiometabolic conditions, specifically obesity and diabetes, rather than cardiac disease phenotype appears to alter the inflammatory profile of EAT. Obese states markedly alter EAT metabolic and inflammatory signaling genes, underlining the impact of obesity on the EAT transcriptome profile.FUNDINGBarts Charity MGU0413, Abbott, Medical Research Council MR/T008059/1, and British Heart Foundation FS/13/49/30421 and PG/16/79/32419.

Coexistence conditions for strains of influenza with immune cross-reaction.

The accumulation of cross-immunity in the host population is an important factor driving the antigenic evolution of viruses such as influenza A. Mathematical models have shown that the strength of temporary non-specific cross-immunity and the basic reproductive number are both key determinants for evolutionary branching of the antigenic phenotype. Here we develop deterministic and stochastic versions of one such model. We examine how the time of emergence or introduction of a novel strain affects co-existence with existing strains and hence the initial establishment of a new evolutionary branch. We also clarify the roles of cross-immunity and the basic reproductive number in this process. We show that the basic reproductive number is important because it affects the frequency of infection, which influences the long term immune profile of the host population. The time at which a new strain appears relative to the epidemic peak of an existing strain is important because it determines the environment the emergent mutant experiences in terms of the short term immune profile of the host population. Strains are more likely to coexist, and hence to establish a new clade in the viral phylogeny, when there is a significant time overlap between their epidemics. It follows that the majority of antigenic drift in influenza is expected to occur in the earlier part of each transmission season and this is likely to be a key surveillance period for detecting emerging antigenic novelty.

Stakeholder perspectives of Community Mental Health Forums: a qualitative study in Sierra Leone.

BACKGROUND: Mental health is the leading cause of disability worldwide. In the wake of both a civil war and an Ebola outbreak, Sierra Leone ranks as one of the lowest ranked countries on the Human Development Index (UNDP. Human Development Report 2015, Work for Human Development. The United Nations Development Programme; 2015). The WHO identified Sierra Leone among its priority countries for the piloting of its Mental Health Gap Action Programme (mhGAP). Aligned to these efforts, CBM and their affiliated partners employed the use of Community Mental Health Forums (CMHFs), facilitated by Mental Health Nurses (MHNs), as a sensitive and practical way of engaging key community stakeholders to discuss and address issues of mental health. This study sought firstly, to identify factors that affect the successful implementation of CMHFs, as identified by programme participants. Second, the study sought to identify what changes participants perceived as having taken place as a result of their participation in CMHFs. METHODS: 10 MHNs and 52 forum participants were purposely selected to take part in key informant interviews and focus group discussions, conducted across eight districts in Sierra Leone. Interview transcripts were analysed across four rounds of coding, using a mixture of deductive and inductive approaches. RESULTS: Results identified three themes, Traditional Beliefs and Culture; Health System; and Inclusive Approaches as affecting the implementation of CMHFs in their districts. Participants further perceived that their participation in the Community Mental Health Forums resulted in changes taking place across the themes of Awareness and beliefs, Behaviours towards people experiencing psychological distress, and as leading to greater Collaboration and cooperation between formal and informal mental health practitioners. CONCLUSIONS: Results are discussed in the context of the extant literature and a novel framework, that incorporates multiple best practice recommendations and factors which influence the successful implementation of CMHFs is put forward.

Antigenic distance and cross-immunity, invasibility and coexistence of pathogen strains in an epidemiological model with discrete antigenic space.

In models of pathogen interaction and evolution discrete genotypes in the form of bit strings may be mapped to points in a discrete phenotype space based on similarity in antigenic structure. Cross-immunity between strains, that is the reduction in susceptibility to strain A conferred to a host by infection with strain B, can then be defined for pairs of points in the antigenic space by a specified function. Analysis of an SIR type model shows that, if two strains are at equilibrium, the shape of the cross-immunity function has a strong influence on the invasion and coexistence of a third strain and, consequently, the expected evolutionary pathway. A function that is constant except for discontinuities at the end points is expected to result in the accumulation of diversity until a pair of discordant strains occurs that can, depending on parameter values, exclude all other strains. For a function of the form f(h)=h(q), where h is the antigenic distance between two strains, invasion and coexistence is always possible if q1 invasion and coexistence may be impossible, depending on parameter values, and the pathogen population is expected to show significant antigenic structuring. In addition to illuminating the role of cross-immunity in pathogen evolution, this analysis indicates that the choice of cross-immunity function, the representation of immunity acquired from multiple previous infections and the number of elements used to characterize the antigenic space must be carefully considered in the development and interpretation of more sophisticated models of pathogen dynamics and evolution.

Cross-immunity, invasion and coexistence of pathogen strains in epidemiological models with one-dimensional antigenic space.

Several epidemic models with many co-circulating strains have shown that partial cross-immunity between otherwise identical strains of a pathogen can lead to exclusion of a subset of the strains. Here we examine the mechanisms behind these solutions by considering a host population in which two strains are endemic and ask when it can be invaded by a third strain. If the function relating antigenic distance to cross-immunity is strictly concave or linear invasion is always possible. If the function is strictly convex and has an initial gradient of zero invasion depends on the degree of antigenic similarity between strains and the basic reproductive number. Examining specific concave and convex functions shows that the shape of the cross-immunity function affects the role of secondary infections in invasion. The basic reproductive number affects the importance of tertiary infections. Thus the form of the relationship between antigenic distance and cross-immunity determines whether the pathogen population will consist of an unstructured cloud of strains or a limited number of strains with strong antigenic structuring. In the latter case the basic reproductive number determines the maximum number of strains that can coexist. Analysis of the evolutionary trajectory shows that attaining the maximum diversity requires large spontaneous changes in antigenic structure and cannot result from a sequence of small point mutations alone.

Analysis of spatial mobility in subjects from a Dengue endemic urban locality in Morelos State, Mexico.

INTRODUCTION: Mathematical models and field data suggest that human mobility is an important driver for Dengue virus transmission. Nonetheless little is known on this matter due the lack of instruments for precise mobility quantification and study design difficulties. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We carried out a cohort-nested, case-control study with 126 individuals (42 cases, 42 intradomestic controls and 42 population controls) with the goal of describing human mobility patterns of recently Dengue virus-infected subjects, and comparing them with those of non-infected subjects living in an urban endemic locality. Mobility was quantified using a GPS-data logger registering waypoints at 60-second intervals for a minimum of 15 natural days. RESULTS: Although absolute displacement was highly biased towards the intradomestic and peridomestic areas, occasional displacements exceeding a 100-Km radius from the center of the studied locality were recorded for all three study groups and individual displacements were recorded traveling across six states from central Mexico. Additionally, cases had a larger number of visits out of the municipality´s administrative limits when compared to intradomestic controls (cases: 10.4 versus intradomestic controls: 2.9, p = 0.0282). We were able to identify extradomestic places within and out of the locality that were independently visited by apparently non-related infected subjects, consistent with houses, working and leisure places. CONCLUSIONS: Results of this study show that human mobility in a small urban setting exceeded that considered by local health authority's administrative limits, and was different between recently infected and non-infected subjects living in the same household. These observations provide important insights about the role that human mobility may have in Dengue virus transmission and persistence across endemic geographic areas that need to be taken into account when planning preventive and control measures. Finally, these results are a valuable reference when setting the parameters for future mathematical modeling studies.

Weighing the evidence for harm from long-term treatment with antipsychotic medications: A systematic review.

Research findings supporting the use of antipsychotic medication for acute treatment of schizophrenia are relatively consistent and undisputed. However, the rationale for recommending long-term antipsychotic medication treatment-the current standard of care treatment strategy-is unclear. A controversial hypothesis proposed recently suggests people with schizophrenia who are exposed to long-term treatment with antipsychotic medications have worse outcomes than people with schizophrenia who are not exposed to these medications. We tested whether a systematic appraisal of published literature would produce data consistent with this hypothesis. We reviewed the published literature to identify studies of patients with psychotic disorders who were followed for at least 2 years that compared outcomes in patients who received antipsychotic medication during the follow-up with patients who did not receive antipsychotic medication during the follow-up. We included all English language articles published through 2013 in this review. Our process for selecting studies and documenting study findings included a consensus decision of 2 members of the research team. We found the published data to be inadequate to test this hypothesis. By extension, these data were also inadequate to conclusively evaluate whether long-term antipsychotic medication treatment results in better outcomes on average. We conclude that careful reappraisal of existing data is useful to ensure standard of care treatment strategies are indeed evidence-based. In the case of long-term use of antipsychotic medications, new data may be needed to establish a sufficient evidence base to understand its benefit/risk balance for patients with schizophrenia. (PsycINFO Database Record

Improving the performance of community health workers in humanitarian emergencies: a realist evaluation protocol for the PIECES programme.

INTRODUCTION: Understanding what enhances the motivation and performance of community health workers (CHWs) in humanitarian emergencies represents a key research gap within the field of human resources for health. This paper presents the research protocol for the Performance ImprovEment of CHWs in Emergency Settings (PIECES) research programme. Enhancing Learning and Research in Humanitarian Action (ELRHA) funded the development of this protocol as part of their Health in Humanitarian Crises (R2HC) call (No.19839). PIECES aims to understand what factors improve the performance of CHWs in level III humanitarian emergencies. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The suggested protocol uses a realist evaluation with multiple cases across the 3 country sites: Turkey, Iraq and Lebanon. Working with International Medical Corps (IMC), an initial programme theory was elicited through literature and document reviews, semistructured interviews and focus groups with IMC programme managers and CHWs. Based on this initial theory, this protocol proposes a combination of semistructured interviews, life histories and critical incident narratives, surveys and latent variable modelling of key constructs to explain how contextual factors work to trigger mechanisms for specific outcomes relating to IMC's 300+ CHWs' performance. Participants will also include programme staff, CHWs and programme beneficiaries. Realist approaches will be used to better understand 'what works, for whom and under what conditions' for improving CHW performance within humanitarian contexts. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Trinity College Dublin's Health Policy and Management/Centre for Global Health Research Ethics Committee gave ethical approval for the protocol development phase. For the full research project, additional ethical approval will be sought from: Université St. Joseph (Lebanon), the Ethics Committee of the Ministry of Health in Baghdad (Iraq) and the Middle East Technical University (Turkey). Dissemination activities will involve a mixture of research feedback, policy briefs, guidelines and recommendations, as well as open source academic articles.