Towards health with justice: making the tobacco industry accountable through administrative liability.

For many decades, the transnational tobacco industry has evaded the consequences of harming people and the planet. Despite selling a deadly product, it has continued to remain one of the most profitable industries in the world, now venturing into 'wellness and pharmaceutical' businesses as part of its diversification strategy. Meanwhile, efforts to make the tobacco industry pay through court systems have not progressed due to the inherent challenges within the judicial systems in most countries. This paper explores mechanisms for ensuring accountability through administrative liability, including the use of compensation mechanisms and adjudicatory bodies. Such mechanisms operationalise vital principles and practices derived from international law, such as the imposition of effective, proportionate, and dissuasive non-criminal sanctions, victims' right to compensation, and 'polluter pays' principles. Measures such as taxation, surcharges, penalties, financial guarantees or insurance, along with the establishment of adjudicatory bodies and trust funds, are discussed. In order to hold the tobacco industry to account for the wide range of harms caused by its products and its misconduct; policies on 'liability' must clearly articulate how the industry will compensate for past and future harms in a manner that deters it from causing further damage.

Tactics of the tobacco industry in an Arab nation: a review of tobacco documents in Oman.

BACKGROUND: Few studies have investigated tobacco industry interference in the tobacco control policies of Arab nations. This paper explores the tactics used by the industry to subvert tobacco control policies in Oman and offers lessons on how to prevent such interference in the future. METHODS: We searched the Truth Tobacco Industry Documents Archive using the word 'Oman', names of government institutions, policymakers and local tobacco distributors. Extracted data were noted chronologically by key elements of tobacco control measures. Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Health Ministers' Council resolutions on tobacco control were also reviewed. RESULTS: Out of 1020 tobacco documents located, 327 were closely related to policy interference. Documents revealed that the industry met key government officials, offered in-kind services, used local diplomatic missions to influence Omani policymakers, opposed smoking bans, delayed regulations to lower tar and nicotine content of cigarettes, and to require effective health warnings, circumvented a tobacco advertising, promotion and sponsorship ban and provided voluntary codes as an alternative to effective regulations. Additionally, industry representatives lobbied individual countries in the GCC to veto tax increments and defeat consensus on agreed resolutions of the Health Ministers' Council. CONCLUSION: The tobacco industry interfered in all key public health policies aimed to reduce tobacco use in Oman. There is an urgent need for the Omani government to enforce the Civil Code of Conduct and develop guidelines for all policymakers through implementing Article 5.3 of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control to curb the tobacco epidemic.

The introduction of tobacco excise taxation in the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries: a step in the right direction of advancing public health.

BACKGROUND: The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries relied, until recently, solely on import duties for tobacco products. The agreement for the introduction of an excise and value added tax (VAT) in 2016 and 2017, respectively, in most GCC countries, was a major breakthrough for public health. There is, however, ample room for improvement. METHODS: The study examines the outcomes of tax reforms, for both public health and public finances, based on the World Health Organization (WHO) recommendations and best practices worldwide. Tax simulations were performed using the WHO TaXSiM model. The study is based on data from Saudi Arabia, the only GCC country for which sufficient data existed. RESULTS: We recommend a stepwise tax reform, which involves increasing the current ad valorem excise tax rate, phasing out import duties keeping total tax share constant and introducing a minimum excise, and finally switching to a revenue-neutral specific excise. Specific excises must be adjusted for inflation and income increases. If implemented, cigarette tax reform simulations show that the recommended reforms would lead to a higher than 50% increase in cigarette prices, 16% reduction in cigarette sales and almost 50% increase in total cigarette tax revenue. A significant number of cigarette-related deaths would be averted. CONCLUSIONS: The recommended tax reforms are expected to lead to significant improvements in both public health and tobacco tax revenues. Our results provide useful insights that are of relevance to the whole GGC region. The effectiveness of the reforms, however, requires a strong tax and customs administration, including the establishment of a good database to monitor and advance public health.

Economic cost of smoking and secondhand smoke exposure in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries.

BACKGROUND: The economic cost of smoking has been determined in many high-income countries as well as at a global level. This paper estimates the economic cost of smoking and secondhand smoke (SHS) exposure in the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates), for which no detailed study exists. METHODS: We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2016 and the cost-of-illness approach to estimate direct costs (healthcare expenditures) and indirect costs (productivity losses due to morbidity and mortality). Indirect cost was estimated with and without the inclusion of musculoskeletal disorders, using the human capital approach. RESULTS: Total cost of smoking and SHS was estimated to be purchasing power parity (PPP)$ 34.5 billion in 2016, equivalent to 1.04% of the combined gross domestic product (GDP). SHS accounted for 20.4% of total cost. The highest proportion of indirect cost resulted from smoking in men and middle-aged people. The main causes of morbidity cost from smoking and SHS were chronic respiratory diseases and type 2 diabetes mellitus, respectively. Cardiovascular diseases were the main contributor to mortality cost for both smoking and exposure to SHS. Including musculoskeletal disorders increased total cost to PPP$ 41.3 billion (1.25% of the combined GDP). CONCLUSION: The economic cost of smoking and SHS in the GCC states is relatively low compared with other high-income countries. Scaling-up implementation of evidence-based policies will prevent the evolution of a tobacco epidemic with its negative consequences for health and public finances.

Impact of Dual versus Single Antiplatelet Therapy on Major Cardiovascular Outcomes in Patients with Acute Coronary Syndrome in the Arabian Gulf.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the association of dual versus single antiplatelet therapy with major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in the Arabian Gulf. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: Data were analyzed from 3,559 patients with a diagnosis of ACS admitted to 29 hospitals in 4 Arabian Gulf countries (Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and United Arab Emirates) from January 2012 to January 2013. Dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT), consisting of aspirin and clopidogrel, was compared to aspirin alone. MACE included 12-months cumulative stroke/transient ischemic attack (TIA), myocardial infarction (MI), all-cause mortality, and readmissions for cardiac reasons, post discharge. Analyses were performed using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: A total of 74% (n = 2,634) of the patients were on DAPT. At 12-month follow-up, patients on DAPT were significantly less likely to experience MACE events (adjusted OR [aOR] 0.73; 95% CI: 0.61-0.86; p < 0.001). Lower cardiovascular (CV) event rates were also consistent across the following MACE components; MI (aOR 0.66; 95% CI: 0.49-0.88; p = 0.005), all-cause mortality (aOR 0.69; 95% CI: 0.51-0.94; p = 0.018), and readmissions for cardiac reasons (aOR 0.79; 95% CI: 0.66-0.95; p = 0.011). Conversely, DAPT was adversely associated with increased risk of stroke/TIA (aOR 1.68; 95% CI: 1.05-2.69; p = 0.030). CONCLUSIONS: DAPT, compared to aspirin therapy alone, was generally associated with better CV outcomes after an ACS event. However, DAPT was adversely associated with increased risk of stroke/TIA in ACS patients in the Arabian Gulf.

MPOWER, needs and challenges: trends in the implementation of the WHO FCTC in the Eastern Mediterranean Region.

BACKGROUND: WHO MPOWER aims to help countries prioritize tobacco control measures in line with the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. OBJECTIVES: This paper assessed the progress and challenges in implementing the 6 priority policies of MPOWER in countries of the WHO Eastern Mediterranean Region since 2011. METHODS: A checklist was developed and scores assigned based on the MPOWER indicators (maximum score 37). MPOWER data for the Region in the 2015 and 2017 tobacco control reports were extracted and scored. Data from similar analyses for 2011 and 2013 were also included. Countries were ranked by scores for each indicator for 2015 and 2017 and for overall scores for 2011 to 2017. RESULTS: The Islamic Republic of Iran, Egypt and Pakistan had the highest scores in 2015 (33, 29 and 27 respectively) and the Islamic Republic of Iran, Pakistan and Yemen had the highest scores in 2017 (34, 31 and 27 respectively). The indicators with the highest and lowest combined score for all countries were for advertising bans and compliance with smoke-free policies: 67 and 18 respectively in 2015, and 73 and 15 respectively in 2017. Most countries (15/22) had higher total scores in 2017 than 2015: Afghanistan, Bahrain and Syrian Arab Republic had the greatest increases. The total score for the Region increased from 416 out of a maximum score of 814 in 2011 to 471 in 2017. CONCLUSIONS: Although notable achievements have been made in the Region, many challenges to policy implementation remain and require urgent action by governments of the countries of the Region.

Impact of mitigating obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity on type 2 diabetes mellitus burden in Oman: insights from mathematical modeling.

INTRODUCTION: To estimate the impact of reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity (PIA) prevalence, and of introducing physical activity (PA) as an explicit intervention, on the prevalence, incidence, and mortality of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Oman. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: A deterministic population-level mathematical model was employed to investigate the impact of different scenarios for reducing T2DM risk factors on T2DM epidemiology. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status and parameterized with nationally representative data. Intervention scenarios were calculated and compared with a baseline (no-intervention) scenario for changes in T2DM prevalence, incidence, and mortality among adult Omanis between 2020 and 2050. RESULTS: In the no-intervention scenario, T2DM prevalence increased from 15.2% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2050. Achieving the goals of halting the rise of obesity, reducing smoking by 30%, and reducing PIA by 10% as outlined in the WHO's Global Action Plan for Non-communicable Diseases (implemented between 2020 and 2030 and then maintained between 2031 and 2050) would reduce T2DM prevalence by 32.2%, cumulative incidence by 31.3%, and related deaths by 19.3% by 2050. Halting the rise of or reducing obesity prevalence by 10%-50% would reduce T2DM prevalence by 33.0%-51.3%, cumulative incidence by 31.9%-53.0%, and related deaths by 19.5%-35.6%. Reducing smoking or PIA prevalence by 10%-50% would lead to smaller reductions of less than 5% in T2DM prevalence, cumulative incidence, and related deaths. Introducing PA with varying intensities at a 25% coverage would reduce T2DM prevalence by 4.9%-14.1%, cumulative incidence by 4.8%-13.8%, and related deaths by 3.4%-9.6% by 2050. CONCLUSIONS: Intervention-for-prevention efforts targeting obesity reduction and introducing PA could result in major reductions in the T2DM burden. Prioritizing such interventions could alleviate the burden of T2DM in Oman and other countries with similarly high T2DM and obesity burdens.

Acute coronary syndrome and khat herbal amphetamine use: an observational report.

BACKGROUND: The khat plant is a stimulant similar to amphetamine and is thought to induce coronary artery spasm. Khat is widely chewed by individuals originating from the Horn of Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. The aim of this study was to evaluate the clinical characteristics and outcome of khat chewers presenting with acute coronary syndrome. METHODS AND RESULTS: From October 1, 2008, through June, 30, 2009, 7399 consecutive patients with acute coronary syndrome were enrolled in the Second Gulf Registry of Acute Coronary Events (Gulf RACE-2). Nineteen percent of patients were khat chewers; 81% were not. Khat chewers were older, more often male, and less likely to have cardiovascular risk factors. Khat chewers were less likely to have a history of coronary artery disease and more likely to present late and to have higher heart rate and advanced Killip class on admission. Khat chewers were more likely to present with ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction. Overall, khat chewers had higher risk of death, recurrent myocardial ischemia, cardiogenic shock, ventricular arrhythmia, and stroke compared with non-khat chewers. After adjustment for baseline variability, khat chewing was found to be an independent risk factor of death and for recurrent ischemia, heart failure, and stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Our data confirm earlier observations of worse in-hospital outcome among acute coronary syndrome patients who chew khat. This worse outcome persists up to 1 year from the index event. This observational report underscores the importance of improving education concerning the cardiovascular risks of khat chewing.

Immediate and one-year outcome of patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome complicated by stroke: findings from the 2nd Gulf Registry of Acute Coronary Events (Gulf RACE-2).

BACKGROUND: Stroke is a potential complication of acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The aim of this study was to identify the prevalence, risk factors predisposing to stroke, in-hospital and 1-year mortality among patients presenting with ACS in the Middle East. METHODS: For a period of 9 months in 2008 to 2009, 7,930 consecutive ACS patients were enrolled from 65 hospitals in 6 Middle East countries. RESULTS: The prevalence of in-hospital stroke following ACS was 0.70%. Most cases were ST segment elevation MI-related (STEMI) and ischemic stroke in nature. Patients with in-hospital stroke were 5 years older than patients without stroke and were more likely to have hypertension (66% vs. 47.6%, P = 0.001). There were no differences between the two groups in regards to gender, other cardiovascular risk factors, or prior cardiovascular disease. Patients with stroke were more likely to present with atypical symptoms, advanced Killip class and less likely to be treated with evidence-based therapies. Independent predictors of stroke were hypertension, advanced killip class, ACS type -STEMI and cardiogenic shock. Stroke was associated with increased risk of in-hospital (39.3% vs. 4.3%) and one-year mortality (52% vs. 12.3%). CONCLUSION: There is low incidence of in-hospital stroke in Middle-Eastern patients presenting with ACS but with very high in-hospital and one-year mortality rates. Stroke patients were less likely to be appropriately treated with evidence-based therapy. Future work should be focused on reducing the risk and improving the outcome of this devastating complication.

Impact of evidence-based cardiac medication on short- and long-term mortality in 7,567 acute coronary syndrome patients in the Gulf RACE-II registry.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the impact of evidence-based cardiac medications (EBMs) on 1-month and 1-year mortality among discharged acute coronary syndrome (ACS) patients in the Middle East. METHODS: Data were analyzed from 7,567 consecutive ACS patients admitted to 66 hospitals in 6 Middle Eastern countries enrolled in the Gulf RACE II in October 2008 to June 2009. Individual EBMs or concurrent use of the EBM combination consists of an anti-platelet therapy, angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) (or angiotensin II receptor blocker (ARB)), ß-blocker, and a statin at discharge, were evaluated. Analyses were performed using univariate and multivariate statistical techniques. RESULTS: The mean age of the cohort was 56 +/- 12 years with 79% being males. 65% of the patients received the concurrent EBM combination at discharge. Aspirin, clopidogrel, statins, b-blockers and ACEIs/ARBs use was 96%, 71%, 95%, 82% and 81%, respectively. 70% of the patients were prescribed both aspirin and clopidogrel concurrently at discharge. Adjusting for demographic, clinical, revascularization, and country characteristics, the multivariable logistic regression models demonstrated no differences in mortality at both 1-month (3.0 vs. 3.6%; p = 0.828) and 1-year (3.5 vs. 3.5%; p = 0.976) between the concurrent EBM combination users and non-users. CONCLUSION: The majority of the ACS patients in the Middle East were prescribed the guideline recommended EBM combination at discharge. However, potential still remains for further optimization of management. Further studies are required to examine the long term effect of concurrent use of the EBM combination on mortality in the region.

Impact of anemia on in-hospital, one-month and one-year mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome from the Middle East.

AIM: The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of admission anemia on in-hospital, one-month, and one-year mortality in patients from the Middle East with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHODS: Data were analyzed from 7922 consecutive patients admitted to hospitals throughout six Middle-Eastern countries with the final diagnosis of ACS, as part of Gulf RACE II (Registry of Acute Coronary Events II). Anemia at admission was defined according to the World Health Organization definition (<13 g/dL in men and <12 g/dL in women). Analyses were conducted using univariate and multivariate statistical techniques. RESULTS: The median age of the cohort was 56 (48-65) years, with the majority being male (79%). Anemia at admission was present in 2241 patients (28%). Patients with anemia were more likely to have in-hospital complications including heart failure, recurrent ischemia, re-infarction, cardiogenic shock, stroke, and major bleed. Even after adjustment, anemia was still associated with mortality at in-hospital (odds ratio [OR]=1.71, 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.34-2.17; P<0.001), at one-month (OR=1.34, 95% CI, 1.06-1.71; P=0.016), and at one-year (OR=1.22, 95% CI, 1.01-1.49; P=0.049) post-admission with ACS. CONCLUSIONS: Admission anemia in patients with ACS from six Middle-Eastern countries was strongly associated with mortality at in-hospital, one-month, and at one-year. Hence, admission anemia must be considered in the initial risk assessment of ACS patients along with other risk scores.

Tobacco modalities used and outcome in patients with acute coronary syndrome: an observational report.

AIM: The authors evaluated the prevalence and effect of the various tobacco use modalities among patients presenting with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and compared them with non-tobacco and ex-tobacco users. METHODS: An analysis of the 2nd Gulf Registry of Acute Coronary Events conducted between October 2008 and June 2009 and which included 7930 consecutive patients hospitalised with ACS was made. Patients initially were divided into non-tobacco users, ex-tobacco users and current tobacco users. Subanalysis according to the tobacco modality used was subsequently made: cigarette, waterpipe or smokeless tobacco users. RESULTS: Overall, 2834 (36%) patients were current tobacco users, 306 (3.9%) patients were waterpipe smokers and 240 patients (3%) were oral tobacco users. When compared with non-tobacco and ex-tobacco users, overall current tobacco users were younger, more likely to be male subjects and less likely to have diabetes mellitus, hypertension and dyslipidaemia. Mortality rate (p=0.001) and overall cardiovascular events (p=0.001) were lower among current tobacco users when compared with the other two groups. After adjustment for baseline variables, tobacco use was not an independent predictor of adverse events. Subset analysis demonstrates oral tobacco users and waterpipe smokers were older and more likely to be women when compared with cigarette smokers. Among the various tobacco groups, inhospital mortality rates were significantly higher among the waterpipe smokers when compared with the other two groups. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical characteristics and outcomes of ACS patients depend on the tobacco modality used. Further studies are required to evaluate the impact of emerging tobacco use modalities on patients with coronary artery disease.

Development and Validation of a Risk Score for Diabetes Screening in Oman.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to develop and validate a diabetic risk score model as a non-invasive and self-administered screening tool to be used in the general Omani population. METHODS: The 2008 World Health Survey (WHS) data from Oman (n = 2720) was used to develop the risk score model. Multivariable logistic regression with the backward stepwise method was implemented to obtain risk factors regression coefficients for sex, age, educational attainment, marital status, place of residence, hypertension, body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, tobacco use, daily fruit and vegetable intake, and weekly physical activity. The model coefficients were multiplied by a factor of five to allocate each variable category a risk score. The total score was calculated as the sum of these individual scores. The score was validated using another Omani cohort (Sur Survey 2006 dataset, n = 1355) by calculating the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC), and optimal score sensitivity and specificity were determined. RESULTS: A robust diabetes risk score model was produced composed of eight variables (age, sex, education level, marital status, place of residence, hypertension, smoking status, and BMI) with an optimal cutoff point of ≥ 15 to classify persons with possible prevalent type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). At this cutoff point, the model had a sensitivity of 71.1%, specificity of 74.4%, and AUC of 0.80 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.78-0.82), when internally validated (in the WHS 2008 cohort). When the model was externally validated (using the Sur 2006 cohort), the optimal cutoff point for the score was ≥ 13, with a lower sensitivity (54.0%), higher specificity (79.0%), and an AUC of 0.74 (95% CI: 0.70-0.78). In contrast, the test of the old Omani, Kuwaiti, Saudi, and Finnish diabetes risk scores in our study populations showed poor performance of these models among Omanis with poor sensitivity (29% to 63.5%) and reasonable specificity (70% to 80%). CONCLUSIONS: The developed diabetes risk score for screening prevalent T2DM, provides an easy-to-use self-administered tool to identify most individuals at risk of this condition in Oman. The score incorporates eight diabetes-associated risk factors that can also act as a tool to increase people's awareness about the importance of diabetes-related risk factors and provide information for policymakers to establish diabetes prevention programs.

Fly Ash-Based Geopolymer Composites: A Review of the Compressive Strength and Microstructure Analysis.

Geopolymer (GP) concrete is a novel construction material that can be used in place of traditional Portland cement (PC) concrete to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and effectively manage industrial waste. Fly ash (FA) has long been utilized as a key constituent in GPs, and GP technology provides an environmentally benign alternative to FA utilization. As a result, a thorough examination of GP concrete manufactured using FA as a precursor (FA-GP concrete) and employed as a replacement for conventional concrete has become crucial. According to the findings of current investigations, FA-GP concrete has equal or superior mechanical and physical characteristics compared to PC concrete. This article reviews the clean production, mix design, compressive strength (CS), and microstructure (Ms) analyses of the FA-GP concrete to collect and publish the most recent information and data on FA-GP concrete. In addition, this paper shall attempt to develop a comprehensive database based on the previous research study that expounds on the impact of substantial aspects such as physio-chemical characteristics of precursors, mixes, curing, additives, and chemical activation on the CS of FA-GP concrete. The purpose of this work is to give viewers a greater knowledge of the consequences and uses of using FA as a precursor to making effective GP concrete.

Clinical Profile of Stroke Patients Presenting to the Emergency Department of a Major Stroke Centre in Oman.

Objectives: Stroke is a significant public health problem and one of the most important preventable non-communicable diseases. Preventive stroke programmes with a better focus on increasing awareness among those who are currently at risk are yet to be properly established in Oman. This study was conducted to describe the characteristics of stroke patients presenting to a tertiary care hospital in Oman. Methods: This cross-sectional hospital-based study included 193 stroke cases which were prospectively recruited from the Emergency Department of Khoula Hospital, Muscat, Oman. Data were collected from November 2017 to April 2018. Results: The total number of patients was 193 with 82.9% of strokes being ischaemic strokes. Of this, 58% were male. The mean age of stroke patients was 61.05 years. Risk factors included hypertension (72.5%) and diabetes mellitus (54.4%). Dyslipidaemia, atrial fibrillation and ischaemic heart diseases were not particularly prevalent in the studied population and 24.4% of ischaemic strokes had large artery atherosclerosis while 21.9% had small vessel occlusion. Significantly more patients had lower Glasgow Coma Scale scores, required intensive care unit admission and experienced in-hospital deaths due to haemorrhagic stroke compared to ischaemic stroke. Conclusion: This study provides essential data regarding stroke characteristics specific to Oman's population. Most of the information obtained appears to be in-line with what has been described internationally and, hence, preventive strategies similar to those indicated in extant literature can be implemented. This information can be utilised by health administrators in planning resource allocation. Further research is needed to explore rehabilitation aspects and long-term outcomes.

The prevalence and outcome of hypertension in patients with acute coronary syndrome in six Middle-Eastern countries.

AIMS: The aim was to report the prevalence and significance of hypertension (HTN) in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). METHODS AND MAJOR FINDINGS: Over a 6-month period in 2007, 8171 consecutive patients (49.4% hypertensive and 50.6% non-hypertensive) presenting with ACS were enrolled in a prospective, multicenter study from six Middle Eastern adjacent countries. Patients with HTN were older (59.2 vs 53.1 years, p<0.001), and more likely to be female (34% vs 14.4%, p<0.001) when compared with patients without HTN. Patients with HTN were also more likely to have diabetes mellitus, hyperlipidemia, cerebrovascular disease, prior history of coronary artery disease, peripheral artery disease but less likely to be cigarette smokers. At admission, HTN patients had higher Killip class, heart rate and GRACE risk scoring. In-hospital mortality was higher in hypertensive patients with ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) but not in patients with non-STEMI or unstable angina. The incidence of heart failure complications was significantly higher among patients with HTN in overall ACS type (OR = 1.2, 95% CI 1.001-1.338, p= 0.04). MAIN CONCLUSION: In this large cohort of patients with ACS, HTN was an independent predictor of heart failure and was associated with an increased rate of in-hospital mortality in STEMI only.

Regional variability in hospital mortality in patients hospitalized with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction: findings from the Gulf Registry of Acute Coronary Events.

OBJECTIVES: To study the short-term mortality from ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in the Arabian Gulf region of the Middle East, and to examine whether these geographically and culturally related countries had similar or different outcomes. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: The Gulf Registry of Acute Coronary Events recruited consecutive acute coronary syndrome patients from six Middle Eastern countries over a 5-month period. RESULTS: Of 6,706 patients recruited, 2,626 (39%) had STEMI, and a total of 165 patients died in hospital, with a crude mortality rate of 6.3%. However, mortality rates varied geographically between 10% in Yemen, 9.6% in Oman and 3.3% in the other countries. The unadjusted odds ratio of mortality for Yemen was 3.2 (95% CI: 2.2-4.7), and 3.1 (95% CI: 1.9-4.8) for Oman, compared to other Gulf countries. Even after adjusting for age and gender, the mortality remained significantly higher, almost double, in Oman and Yemen compared to other countries. This could be understood in the light of significant differences in a number of practice pattern variables such as reperfusion therapy, timely presentation and use of evidence-based medications. CONCLUSION: We found significant variability in STEMI mortality among Gulf Arab countries and identified areas requiring further efforts to reduce excess mortality in the region.

Forecasting the type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic and the role of key risk factors in Oman up to 2050: Mathematical modeling analyses.

AIMS/INTRODUCTION: To investigate and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic, its related risk factors and cost in Oman by 2050. MATERIALS AND METHODS: An age-structured mathematical model was used to characterize type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemiology and trends in Oman between 1990 and 2050. The model was parametrized using current and quality data, including six nationally representative population-based epidemiological surveys for type 2 diabetes mellitus and its key risk factors. RESULTS: The projected type 2 diabetes mellitus prevalence increased from 15.2% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2050. The prevalence increased from 16.8 and 13.8% in 2020 among women and men to 26.3 and 21.4% in 2050, respectively. In 2020, 190,489 Omanis were living with type 2 diabetes mellitus compared with 570,227 in 2050. The incidence rate per 1,000 person-years changed from 8.3 in 2020 to 12.1 in 2050. Type 2 diabetes mellitus' share of Oman's national health expenditure grew by 36% between 2020 and 2050 (from 21.2 to 28.8%). Obesity explained 56.7% of type 2 diabetes mellitus cases in 2020 and 71.4% in 2050, physical inactivity explained 4.3% in 2020 and 2.7% in 2050, whereas smoking accounted for <1% of type 2 diabetes mellitus cases throughout 2020-2050. Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses affirmed these predictions. CONCLUSIONS: The type 2 diabetes mellitus epidemic in Oman is expected to increase significantly over the next three decades, consuming nearly one-third of the national health expenditure. The type 2 diabetes mellitus burden is heavily influenced by obesity. Interventions targeting this single risk factor should be a national priority to reduce and control the burden of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Oman.

Increasing Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Oman: A Joinpoint Trend Analysis.

OBJECTIVES: We sought to investigate the epidemiology of thyroid cancer and its trends in Oman over a 20-year period. METHODS: We analyzed all cases of primary thyroid cancer reported to the Oman National Cancer Registry between 1996 and 2015. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were calculated using the World Standard Population. Joinpoint regression was used to assess trends and obtain annual percentage changes (APC) in incidence rates with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) and p-values at the alpha = 0.050 level. Gender-specific APC was used to project thyroid cancer incidence rates in Oman over the next 20 years. Population attributable fraction was calculated for obesity and current non-smoking. RESULTS: A total of 1285 cases of primary thyroid cancer cases were registered in Oman between 1996 and 2015, with a female to male ratio of 4:1. In men, the ASR was 2.0 per 100 000 while in females it was 7.6 per 100 000 (p < 0.010). Over 80.0% of thyroid tumors were of a papillary type and 19.0% follicular type. Statistically significant trends for thyroid cancer were detected in women from 2008-2015 (APC = 14.3%, 95% CI: 8.0-20.9, p < 0.010) and among both genders (APC = 16.7%, 95% CI: 4.9-29.9, p < 0.010). If current trends continue, thyroid cancer incidence will increase to 3.1, 16.6, and 11.8 per 100 000 by 2040 in men, women, and both genders, respectively. Nearly 10.0% of thyroid cancer can be prevented by controlling obesity in the Omani population. CONCLUSIONS: Oman has had moderate incidence rates of thyroid cancer with an increasing trend among women. Since projections estimate that the rates of this disease will double in women over the next 20 years, health authorities should consider providing sufficient resources to manage this condition and establish prevention programs that address obesity as part of the strategy for the prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases.