Genetic, structural, and functional characterization of POLE polymerase proofreading variants allows cancer risk prediction.

PURPOSE: Polymerase proofreading-associated polyposis is a dominantly inherited colorectal cancer syndrome caused by exonuclease domain missense variants in the DNA polymerases POLE and POLD1. Manifestations may also include malignancies at extracolonic sites. Cancer risks in this syndrome are not yet accurately quantified. METHODS: We sequenced POLE and POLD1 exonuclease domains in 354 individuals with early/familial colorectal cancer (CRC) or adenomatous polyposis. We assessed the pathogenicity of POLE variants with yeast fluctuation assays and structural modeling. We estimated the penetrance function for each cancer site in variant carriers with a previously published nonparametric method based on survival analysis approach, able to manage unknown genotypes. RESULTS: Pathogenic POLE exonuclease domain variants P286L, M294R, P324L, N363K, D368N, L424V, K425R, and P436S were found in ten families. The estimated cumulative risk of CRC at 30, 50, and 70 years was 11.1% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.2-17.5), 48.5% (33.2-60.3), and 74% (51.6-86.1). Cumulative risk of glioblastoma was 18.7% (3.2-25.8) at 70 years. Variants interfering with DNA binding (P286L and N363K) had a significantly higher mutagenic effect than variants disrupting ion metal coordination at the exonuclease site. CONCLUSION: The risk estimates derived from this study provide a rational basis on which to provide genetic counseling to POLE variant carriers.

A new scoring system in cancer genetics: application to criteria for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation screening.

BACKGROUND: In hereditary forms of cancer due to mutations of genes such as BRCA1 and BRCA2, methods have been proposed to predict the presence of a mutation in a family. METHODS: Relying on carriage probability computation is the most predictive, but scores are a good proxy and avoid using computer software. An empirical method, the Manchester scoring system, has been elaborated for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation identification. We propose a general scoring system based on a transformation of the carriage probability. Up to an approximation, the transformed carriage probability becomes an additive score. We applied this new scoring system to the diagnosis of BRCA1-associated and BRCA2-associated breast-ovarian cancer predisposition. Using simulations, its performance was evaluated and compared with that of the Manchester scoring system and of the exact probability. Finally, the score system was used on a sample of 4563 families screened for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutations. RESULTS: The performance of the new scoring system was superior to the Manchester scoring system, but the probability computation remained the most predictive. The better performance of the new scoring system was attributed to accounting for unaffected family members and for the degree of kinship of relatives with the proband. CONCLUSIONS: The new scoring system has a theoretical basis and may be applied to any cancer family syndrome and, more generally, to any disease with monogenic subentities, in which the causal gene mutations have been identified. It will be easily modified when additional predictive factors are found.

Study of the parent-of-origin effect in monogenic diseases with variable age of onset. Application on ATTRv.

In genetic diseases with variable age of onset, an accurate estimation of the survival function for the mutation carriers and also modifying factors effects estimations are important for the management of asymptomatic gene carriers across life. Among the modifying factors, the gender of the parent transmitting the mutation (i.e. the parent-of-origin effect) has been shown to have a significant effect on survival curve estimation on transthyretin familial amyloid polyneuropathy (ATTRv) families. However, as most genotypes are unknown, the parent-of-origin must be calculated through a probability estimated from the pedigree. We propose in this article to extend the method providing mutation carrier survival estimates in order to estimate the parent-of-origin effect. The method is both validated on simulated data and applied to familly samples with ATTRv.

A multicentric study of the disease risks and first manifestations in hereditary transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTRv): insights for an earlier diagnosis.

BACKGROUND: In hereditary transthyretin amyloidosis (ATTRv), early manifestation and age at onset (AO) may vary strikingly. We assessed the disease'risk (penetrance), AO and initial features in ATTRv families to gain insights on the early disease presentation. METHODS: Genealogical information, AO and first disease manifestations were collected in ATTRv families, from Sweden, Italy (Sicily), Spain (Mallorca), France, Turkey, Brazil. Penetrance was computed using a non-parametric survival method. RESULTS: We analysed 258 TTRV30M kindreds and 84 carrying six other variants (TTRT49A, F64L, S77Y, S77F, E89Q, I107V). In ATTRV30M families, the earliest disease risk was found at age 20 years in the Portuguese and Mallorcan families and at age 30-35 years, in the French and Swedish groups. The risks were higher in men and in carriers of maternal descent. In families carrying TTR-nonV30M variants, the earliest disease risk ranged from 30 y-o in TTRT49A to 55 y-o in TTRI107V families. Peripheral neuropathy symptoms were the most frequent initial manifestations. Among patients carrying TTRnonV30M variants, about 25% had an initial cardiac phenotype, one third a mixed phenotype. CONCLUSION: Our work provided solid data on the risks and early features of ATTRv in a spectrum of families to enhance an early diagnosis and treatment.

Penetrance estimation of Alzheimer disease in SORL1 loss-of-function variant carriers using a family-based strategy and stratification by APOE genotypes.

BACKGROUND: Alzheimer disease (AD) is a common complex disorder with a high genetic component. Loss-of-function (LoF) SORL1 variants are one of the strongest AD genetic risk factors. Estimating their age-related penetrance is essential before putative use for genetic counseling or preventive trials. However, relative rarity and co-occurrence with the main AD risk factor, APOE-ε4, make such estimations difficult. METHODS: We proposed to estimate the age-related penetrance of SORL1-LoF variants through a survival framework by estimating the conditional instantaneous risk combining (i) a baseline for non-carriers of SORL1-LoF variants, stratified by APOE-ε4, derived from the Rotterdam study (N = 12,255), and (ii) an age-dependent proportional hazard effect for SORL1-LoF variants estimated from 27 extended pedigrees (including 307 relatives ≥ 40 years old, 45 of them having genotyping information) recruited from the French reference center for young Alzheimer patients. We embedded this model into an expectation-maximization algorithm to accommodate for missing genotypes. To correct for ascertainment bias, proband phenotypes were omitted. Then, we assessed if our penetrance curves were concordant with age distributions of APOE-ε4-stratified SORL1-LoF variant carriers detected among sequencing data of 13,007 cases and 10,182 controls from European and American case-control study consortia. RESULTS: SORL1-LoF variants penetrance curves reached 100% (95% confidence interval [99-100%]) by age 70 among APOE-ε4ε4 carriers only, compared with 56% [40-72%] and 37% [26-51%] in ε4 heterozygous carriers and ε4 non-carriers, respectively. These estimates were fully consistent with observed age distributions of SORL1-LoF variant carriers in case-control study data. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that SORL1-LoF variants should be interpreted in light of APOE genotypes for future clinical applications.

New data on the genetic profile and penetrance of hereditary Val30Met transthyretin amyloidosis in Sweden.

INTRODUCTION: Hereditary transthyretin (ATTRv) amyloidosis is of autosomal dominant transmission, caused by a spectrum of mutations in the transthyretin (TTR) gene. The ATTRV30M (p.Val50Met) is the most frequent substitution in Europe. Northern Sweden is a known cluster for ATTRV30M amyloidosis patients due to high prevalence of the mutation rate, with homozygous cases. First symptoms occur generally during the 6th decade. Previous studies reported low penetrance in this area and possible anticipation in families. In order to refine our knowledge of the genetic aspects, penetrance and factors that influence the disease's risk, we performed a comprehensive study of ATTRV30M families in Sweden. METHODS: To assess anticipation, well-established age at onset (AO) was compared in all informative parent-offspring pairs and in subgroups, after excluding ascertainment biases. Penetrance was estimated using a non-parametric method that enables to study covariates' effect on the disease's risk. RESULTS: We analysed 114 ATTRV30M Swedish families, including 12 homozygous individuals. Among 131 parent-offspring pairs, we found an average anticipation of 11.7 [Standard Deviation (SD) =10.03] years, higher in case of maternal transmission (mean ± SD = 13.7 ± 8.4 years), compared to paternal transmission (mean ± SD = 7.9 ± 11.5 years, p < .003). Anticipation remained significant, after exclusion of ascertainment biases. In heterozygous ATTRV30M kindred, penetrance was low, estimated below 10% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 6-10] at 40 years-old, increasing to 71% [95% CI= 65-76] at age 90 years. The risk was found to be higher in male patients (p < .01) and in case of maternal transmission (p < .01), reflecting a parent of origin effect. We observed no difference of penetrance according the geographical origin. Finally, the disease risk was similar in heterozygous and homozygous ATTRV30M amyloidosis individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides new data on the genetics of ATTRV30M families in Sweden, including the occurrence of anticipation and on penetrance. Both are increased in case of maternal inheritance and in male patients. Overall, gender seems to be a factor that substantially modulates the AO of the disease, in this area. Clinically, these findings are of importance to guide the management of sibships and the monitoring of mutation carriers.

Causal mediation analysis in presence of multiple mediators uncausally related.

Mediation analysis aims at disentangling the effects of a treatment on an outcome through alternative causal mechanisms and has become a popular practice in biomedical and social science applications. The causal framework based on counterfactuals is currently the standard approach to mediation, with important methodological advances introduced in the literature in the last decade, especially for simple mediation, that is with one mediator at the time. Among a variety of alternative approaches, Imai et al. showed theoretical results and developed an R package to deal with simple mediation as well as with multiple mediation involving multiple mediators conditionally independent given the treatment and baseline covariates. This approach does not allow to consider the often encountered situation in which an unobserved common cause induces a spurious correlation between the mediators. In this context, which we refer to as mediation with uncausally related mediators, we show that, under appropriate hypothesis, the natural direct and joint indirect effects are non-parametrically identifiable. Moreover, we adopt the quasi-Bayesian algorithm developed by Imai et al. and propose a procedure based on the simulation of counterfactual distributions to estimate not only the direct and joint indirect effects but also the indirect effects through individual mediators. We study the properties of the proposed estimators through simulations. As an illustration, we apply our method on a real data set from a large cohort to assess the effect of hormone replacement treatment on breast cancer risk through three mediators, namely dense mammographic area, nondense area and body mass index.

Detecting latent exposure in genome-wide association studies using a breakpoint model for logistic regression.

Detecting gene-environment (G × E) interactions in the context of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is a challenging problem since standard methods generally present a lack of power. An additional difficulty arises from the fact that the causal exposure is seldom observed and only a proxy of this exposure is observed. This leads to an additional drop in terms of power and it explains the failure of standard methods in detecting interactions, even very strong ones. In this article, we consider the latent exposure as a source of heterogeneity and we propose a new powerful method, named "Breakpoint Model for Logistic Regression" (BMLR), based on a breakpoint model, in order to detect G × E interactions when causal exposure is unobserved. First, the BMLR method is compared to the ordered-subset analysis for case-control method, which has been developed for the same purpose, through simulations. This highlights the ability of BMLR to detect the heterogeneity, and therefore, to detect interaction with latent exposure. Finally, the BMLR method is compared to standard methods, such as Plink, to perform a GWAS on a published realistic benchmark.

Non-parametric estimation of survival in age-dependent genetic disease and application to the transthyretin-related hereditary amyloidosis.

In genetic diseases with variable age of onset, survival function estimation for the mutation carriers as well as estimation of the modifying factors effects are essential to provide individual risk assessment, both for mutation carriers management and prevention strategies. In practice, this survival function is classically estimated from pedigrees data where most genotypes are unobserved. In this article, we present a unifying Expectation-Maximization (EM) framework combining probabilistic computations in Bayesian networks with standard statistical survival procedures in order to provide mutation carrier survival estimates. The proposed approach allows to obtain previously published parametric estimates (e.g. Weibull survival) as particular cases as well as more general Kaplan-Meier non-parametric estimates, which is the main contribution. Note that covariates can also be taken into account using a proportional hazard model. The whole methodology is both validated on simulated data and applied to family samples with transthyretin-related hereditary amyloidosis (a rare autosomal dominant disease with highly variable age of onset), showing very promising results.

Estimating cancer risk in HNPCC by the GRL method.

Hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer (HNPCC) is an autosomal dominant syndrome caused by germline mutations of the mismatch repair (MMR) genes. Only a few studies have taken into account the selection of families tested for these mutations in estimating colorectal cancer (CRC) risk in carriers. They found much lower estimates of CRC risks than previous ones, but these estimates lacked precision despite the large number of families. The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficiency of the 'genotype restricted likelihood' (GRL) method that provides unbiased estimates of risks whatever the ascertainment process of families, and to estimate CRC and endometrial cancer risk for carriers of the MMR genes. Efficiency of the GRL method was evaluated using simulations. Risks were estimated from a sample of 36 families diagnosed with HNPCC and carrying a mutation of MSH2 or MLH1, ascertained through a cancer family clinic in Lyon (France). The efficiency of the GRL method was found to be strongly dependent on the proportion of family members tested. By age 70 years, CRC risk was estimated at 47% (95% confidence interval: 12-98%) for men and 33% (95% confidence interval: 24-54%) for women. The endometrial cancer risk was only 14% (confidence interval: 6-20%). As methods allowing for the selection of families lack efficiency, large-scale family studies should be undertaken and data should be pooled to provide reliable and precise estimates of risks for an optimal familial management.

[A new scoring system for the diagnosis of BRCA1/2 associated breast-ovarian cancer predisposition]. / Nouveau système de score pour le diagnostic des prédispositions aux cancers du sein et de l'ovaire associées à BRCA1/2.

Criteria have been proposed for genetic testing of breast and ovarian cancer susceptibility genes BRCA1 and BRCA2. Using simulations, this study evaluates the efficiency (sensitivity, positive predictive value [PPV] and specificity) of the various criteria used in France. The efficiency of the criteria published in 1998, which are largely used, is not optimal. We show that some extensions of these criteria provide an increase in sensitivity with a low decrease in specificity and PPV. The study shows that scoring systems (Manchester, Eisinger) have similar efficiency that may be improved. In this aim, we propose a new scoring system that takes into account unaffected individuals and kinship coefficients between family members. This system increases sensitivity without affecting PPV and specificity. Finally, we propose a two-step procedure with a large screening by the physician for recommending genetic counselling, followed by a more stringent selection by the geneticist for prescribing genetic testing. This procedure would result in an increase of genetic counselling activity but would allow the identification of almost 80% of mutation carriers among affected individuals, with a mutation detection rate of 15% and a specificity of 88%.

Heterogeneity of penetrance in familial amyloid polyneuropathy, ATTR Val30Met, in the Swedish population.

Transthyretin (TTR) familial amyloid polyneuropathies (FAP) are autosomal dominant devastating afflictions. They were first described in Portugal, later in Japan and Sweden and are now recognized worldwide. The TTR Val30Met mutation is the most common, and depending on the geographic origin, a wide variation in age at onset of the disease is observed. In Europe, northern Sweden is the second most prevalent area of the disease, and a late age of onset of 56 years has been reported. The present study aims to estimate the penetrance in TTR Val30Met Swedish families. Genealogical investigations, clinical data and genotyping were obtained in 77 TTR-Val30Met Swedish families. The penetrance in Val30Met carriers and variation within the endemic area, according to gender and transmitting parents were calculated by a newly developed bias-free method. The penetrance estimates were low, i.e. 1.7% and 22% at age 30 and 60 years, respectively, and far from complete (69%) by age 90 years. Differences between Piteå and Skellefteå regions were observed. Moreover, penetrance was significantly higher when the mutation was inherited from the mother than from the father. The low penetrance observed in TTR FAP kindreds and its variations is important information for the genetic counseling and treatment of Swedish FAP patients and their families.